GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1194
What's everyone's thoughts on Mass Effect vs. Mario Galaxy 2? I see in the Oracle topic a lot of people are favoring Galaxy 2 by a lot, and I personally have a hard time understanding it because Mario Galaxy 1 and Mass Effect finished with around the same x-stats in GotD. I can only see it happening if Galaxy 2 is at the same strength as Galaxy 1, which I personally doubt, and if you think Mass Effect has dropped off significantly in strength over the past five years. --- http://img.imgcake.com/whatisurnameplz/kermitgifre.gif Oh yea, I guess raytan won. |
Even
if TLOU = MGS4, Halo 3 is still well ahead of TWEWY based on those
numbers. It would be at 26.50% in that case. Not that much of a drop. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Just
curious, how often ARE the X-Stats right? I'm not a big stats buff so I
don't know this, but if they're only right 50% of the time or so, I
wouldn't say using them is a lot more valuable than always picking the
highest seed in your bracket or something >_> --- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
whatisurnameplz posted... What's everyone's thoughts on Mass Effect vs. Mario Galaxy 2? I took ME1 because I think it's a decent upset pick. Mario games that aren't the big three can lose to anything out there (like Halo 3 LOL Mario Sunshine). I don't think SMG2 will be nearly as strong as SMG1. It'll be like a DKC1/DKC2 relationship, I think. It's possible ME1 is weaker now, but we'll see! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
transcience posted... thanks. I'm having a hard time reconciling Last of Us over MGS4 but I might need to get used to it. much lower and I start to see things like Halo 3 = TWEWY and that's scary. Why? MGS4 is getting lots of backlash while The Last of Us is highly-acclaimed. Although yeah I suppose on NostalgiaFAQs where established franchises are king... ...honestly maybe MGS was never really an "established" franchise on this site. In BGE2 MGS1 got murdered by RBY, MGS2 was taken out by FFX + KH, and I dunno if MGS3 going even with RE4 is such a big accomplishment given that RE4 didn't really do much in GOTD. MGS4 got killed by Brawl in R3 and was only rallied later on in order to get a non-Nintendo option through to the semifinals. Then you saw what SOTC did in GOTD and then MGS3 did worse against Majora's Mask than Wind Waker did. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
LeonhartFour posted... whatisurnameplz posted...What's everyone's thoughts on Mass Effect vs. Mario Galaxy 2? I had Galaxy 2 winning for most of the bracketing phase but changed to Mass Effect only a few days before. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
whatisurnameplz posted... What's everyone's thoughts on Mass Effect vs. Mario Galaxy 2? I took the higher seed in this case. Plus it's Mario vs a limited time 360 exclusive. --- Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in |
Mr Lasastryke posted... Just curious, how often ARE the X-Stats right? I'm not a big stats buff so I don't know this, but if they're only right 50% of the time or so, I wouldn't say using them is a lot more valuable than always picking the highest seed in your bracket or something >_> They got DQ8 vs. Persona 3 correct within 1%! But seriously, assuming there's no SFF screwing them up they're good for finding a game's general strength. "General" being the key term here, since just because a game beats another by 1% in the x-stats doesn't necessarily mean it will win for sure in the next contest. --- http://img.imgcake.com/whatisurnameplz/kermitgifre.gif Oh yea, I guess raytan won. (edited 11/6/2015 8:51:05 AM)report |
Mr Lasastryke posted... Just curious, how often ARE the X-Stats right? I'm not a big stats buff so I don't know this, but if they're only right 50% of the time or so, I wouldn't say using them is a lot more valuable than always picking the highest seed in your bracket or something >_> Well, it's been forever since we've had X-Stats that come from a 1-on-1 format for Characters (2010) and only once for Games (2004). GOTD only includes a part of this field, so it can't be used to predict everything. Generally speaking, they're more accurate than not when it comes to predicting the winner, if nothing else, but since we're talking about a gap of 5 years between now and GOTD, a lot has changed. They're interesting to look at for a reference, but I wouldn't use them exclusively. For the record, GOTD Stats only predicted 60/40 for Melee/Portal and 72% for G/S/C > TWEWY, so in terms of percentage, they're a decent bit off. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
In
general, the x-stats are far more accurate than people's intuition.
The x-stats are essentially just the past results. Most of the cases
that cause the x-stats to fail are easily predictable/identifiable
(SFF/LFF accounts for a majority of such cases). --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Galaxy 2 playrate http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3919-got-super-mario-galaxy-2 Mass Effect playrate http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4909-5-years-later-got-mass-effect Galaxy 2 has a playrate of 35% tops, and Mass Effect 1 has a playrate range of 32.3-57.77% --- http://img.imgcake.com/whatisurnameplz/kermitgifre.gif Oh yea, I guess raytan won. |
People
often disparage the x-stats, but most of them are using both the stats
AND their own external information, intuition, and judgment. They just
don't give credit to the stats part of it. I would hope that an
intelligent predictor using the stats but also thinking for
themselves/looking at other information can produce better predictions
than the lol x-stats machine on NGamer's site. If not, that would mean
the x-stats are about as close to perfect as they can get! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
X-stats
are generally very accurate as long as you make sure to take
extenuating accounts into factor (gap of time between contests, SFF,
bandwagons/unique events). They're not perfect but someone religiously
following the x-stats has a much, much better chance at doing well than
someone just taking their best guess. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
LeonhartFour posted... Also, the discussion from earlier made me realize the X-Stats will suck if something other than FFVII or CT gets to the finals. Aww yeah, time to make adjustments that will mask flaws that will be revealed in BGE 2020! --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
Just showed a friend the contest matches and he thought it was Kingdom Hearts 1 in the match before I corrected him...welp. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Today's
matches appeared to be very frontloaded at the start, when compared to
yesterday's matches. I just tracked the overall combined vote totals
for the 4 matches from yesterday and compared them to the overall
combined vote totals from today's matches. This spreadsheet shows a very clear trend regarding today's vote totals vs. yesterday's vote totals: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I9Diy4TDcaoiJIdPOm6cfcPDj78EcjZniL5-lmTNQK8/pub At one point, the overall vote totals in today's matches reached a maximum lead of 2858 votes over yesterday's matches at 9:12 AM. But after 9:12 AM, yesterday's matches are heavily outvoting today's matches. It took less than 2 hours for yesterday's matches to surpass today's matches in combined vote totals after reaching the maximum lead of 2858 votes. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! (edited 11/6/2015 9:23:36 AM)report |
Anyone else worried about a Xenogears upset? --- Tangy's Quest to beat the Final Fantasies: I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XII, XIII |
KamikazePotato posted... X-stats are generally very accurate as long as you make sure to take extenuating accounts into factor (gap of time between contests, SFF, bandwagons/unique events). They're not perfect but someone religiously following the x-stats has a much, much better chance at doing well than someone just taking their best guess. Final Fantasy IX is so screwed edit: what the hell wrong quote oh well you know what I mean --- add the c and back away iphonesience (edited 11/6/2015 9:32:33 AM)report |
KamikazePotato posted... Just showed a friend the contest matches and he thought it was Kingdom Hearts 1 in the match before I corrected him...welp. It's a really poor decision by Allen to not have the names displayed below the pictures. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
Today's
matches appeared to be very frontloaded at the start, when compared to
yesterday's matches. I just tracked the overall combined vote totals for
the 4 matches from yesterday and compared them to the overall combined
vote totals from today's matches. Maybe the timer has something to do with it. Now people know when the next poll begins instead of coming randomly on the next day. Would be interesting if we could measure excitement with it (as in if it's more front loaded then more people are hyped about it). --- BGE3: Today's Matches SSBM>Portal, Pokemon GSC>TWEWY, KHII>MGS4, TLoU>Halo 3 Points 2/4 |
It's a really poor decision by Allen to not have the names displayed below the pictures. But the name appears when you place the mouse over it. --- BGE3: Today's Matches SSBM>Portal, Pokemon GSC>TWEWY, KHII>MGS4, TLoU>Halo 3 Points 2/4 |
charmander6000 posted... Maybe the timer has something to do with it. Now people know when the next poll begins instead of coming randomly on the next day. Hmm, that seems like an interesting theory. Since tomorrow's matches will be on the weekend, it wouldn't be right to compare them to the matches from today or even yesterday. I was able to compare today's matches to yesterday's matches since they were both on a weekday. I guess I'll wait until next week to see if these frontloaded voting trends are similar to the matches from today. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
charmander6000 posted... It's a really poor decision by Allen to not have the names displayed below the pictures. That helps if someone's gonna pick the game anyway, but if someone thought it was Kingdom Hearts I and thus chose NOT to vote for it, they wouldn't know they were wrong. This isn't a great example because KH I and II are pretty close in popularity, so not many people are gonna pick MGS4 over one, but not the other,but it could matter in other cases, especially stuff like TWEWY, where no one who doesn't already know the game/its visual style (and even then) is gonna know what that title is. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! |
Hmm..
should be interesting to see FFVI tomorrow actually, as it might only
be listed as FFIII. I'm pretty sure most everyone knows they're the same
game by now, but might be interesting to see, especially as it's only
Mog on the box art, who could conceivably be a moogle from any game. Edit: Hmmm..I guess it only being listed as FFVI would have its drawbacks too. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! (edited 11/6/2015 10:10:58 AM)report |
Anyone else worried about a Xenogears upset? Sometimes. On one hand the game has not been given a fair match since GSC in 2004, but going from 20% against FFVII to 22% against FFVIII over five years is a bit of a concern. Of course SFF matches sometimes have weird results. The game does well on most wanted re-releases polls. Whether Star Wars is the same strength as before is something to look out for, especially if Halo 3's performance was an Xbox thing instead of a Halo thing. The last do you own an Xbox poll from 2014 didn't show too big of a difference though. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5425-do-you-still-own-an-xbox --- BGE3: Today's Matches SSBM>Portal, Pokemon GSC>TWEWY, KHII>MGS4, TLoU>Halo 3 Points 2/4 |
I'm afraid of the Force Awakens hype so I'm betting on star wars. I'm aware that isn't the most realiable reason to vote though. |
transcience posted... KamikazePotato posted...X-stats are generally very accurate as long as you make sure to take extenuating accounts into factor (gap of time between contests, SFF, bandwagons/unique events). They're not perfect but someone religiously following the x-stats has a much, much better chance at doing well than someone just taking their best guess. I've actually been thinking FF9 was in trouble since I saw the format in action. I think this format that makes people more likely to vote in a match even if they don't care about it means games with a strong brand name or respect factor will do better...and KH1 is definitely more well-known among non-Square fans. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
This is GameFAQs though, would KH be more known than FF? I'm more afraid that FF9 may not have been SFF by FF10, that would give KH the advantage. --- BGE3: Today's Matches SSBM>Portal, Pokemon GSC>TWEWY, KHII>MGS4, TLoU>Halo 3 Points 2/4 |
charmander6000 posted... This is GameFAQs though, would KH be more known than FF? No, but would KH1 be played more than FF9? And would more non-Square fans have played KH1 than FF9? --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
KH1
is definitely more well-known than FF9 in general though. FF9 was the
forgotten black sheep of the series for a loooong time. I didn't think
that would matter as much if it was more just Square fans voting, but
for example that match is going to also be sharing voters with Ocarina
of Time and I see the Nintendo block definitely defaulting to KH1 more. It's not going to be a HUGE difference but I think it'll still be a factor. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
From the TWEWY board: MentockMT posted... SMH |
Maybe? I think this will more affect games with lower playership rates, but have name brand. For example a person with a need to vote in all four matches will probably vote for Star Wars: KotOR because they know Star Wars while it is likely they may have never heard of Xenogears. --- BGE3: Today's Matches SSBM>Portal, Pokemon GSC>TWEWY, KHII>MGS4, TLoU>Halo 3 Points 2/4 |
whatisurnameplz posted... Galaxy 2 playrate This seems a little off. Way more people have played SMG2 now, years later, than did in its release day. Don't think this is a useful comparison. --- satoru iwata |
Also, using base 2010 results without adjustment predict: KH2 - 61.84% Halo 3 - 38.16% MGS4 - 51.57% KH2 - 48.43% --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I'd
love for ff9 to take that but I just don't see it. I clung to that pick
for so long and eventually just asked myself why GameFAQs would support
FF9 over KH and couldn't come up with anything. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
I
think most of this site, in particular, is familiar enough with
Xenogears. Probably moreso than KOTOR, specifically, but Star Wars will
get the ones that don't, or just don't like Xenoegears. --- satoru iwata |
charmander6000 posted... Anyone else worried about a Xenogears upset? I dunno, I wouldn't take a game that broke 47% on Final Fantasy IX to lose to Xenogears. KOTOR placing well on THE LIST seems to indicate that it has staying power, but, you guys can gauge for yourselves whether that matters or not. As for Final Fantasy IX, it might well be in trouble, but the game has gained in popularity over the past few years. We know that KH1 is weaker than KH2, and FFIX would probably at least 60-40 MGS4. So FFIX is probably safe. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/6/2015 10:37:49 AM)report |
my Xenogears crew writeup is a doozy. get ready for walls of text, 2005 style --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
ZeldaTPLink posted... From the TWEWY board: x brackets - that guy's bracket = y brackets --- Communists |
wonder how long the crew mario 3/pokémon writeups are going to be >_> --- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
Mr Lasastryke posted... wonder how long the crew mario 3/pokémon writeups are going to be >_> Rumor has it they've already started writing them. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
Any games from 2007-2012 coming up? Because they're about to get hammered. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
It's
kinda funny - Melee looked invincible early last night, and now it's
probably got the least-impressive performance of the day. What a board
vote. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Doubling
Portal would look impressive if it wasn't for Portal's low seed making a
drop far from out of the question. It does feel like the series as a
whole became less popular when Portal 2 was no longer so fresh. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
MGS4 vs. Persona 4 over time: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3363-best-of-2008-game-of-the-year http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4444-whats-your-all-time-favorite-4-game http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5467-whats-your-all-time-favorite-4-game Would anyone take a chance on Persona 4 winning that 1-on-1? --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Melee has always had an insane board vote. I'm so hyped for CT/Melee. trends could be crazy. and we won't start on Pokemon until we see GSC/Melee. I love how GSC is setting up as the undercard for RBY. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
CT has a pretty good board vote. A FFVII/Melee match would be pretty crazy, assuming FFVII has dropped enough --- BGE3: Today's Matches SSBM>Portal, Pokemon GSC>TWEWY, KHII>MGS4, TLoU>Halo 3 Points 2/4 |
yep.
I have no idea who wins that board vote (probably Melee, it's just so
front loaded). CT crushes the night though and Melee will win the day. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
AxemRedRanger posted... MGS4 vs. Persona 4 over time: We've seen Persona 4 one-on-one. It barely beat a game that barely beat TWEWY. Do you take TWEWY over MGS4? --- http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
