GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1194
Leon,
can you either PM or Facebook me your address? Don't know if you've
moved or not. I played the series, and it was really fun! Again I'm really sorry, I moved and it was somehow in storage. Others can vouch I'm usually solid at getting people's borrowed stuff back immediately :'( ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
Chrono Trigger, Best Game Ever 2015 Champion! |
God I would be so happy if this happened. R&C might just be trash though, which really sucks. It's a good game. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
UltimaterializerX posted... God I would be so happy if this happened. I have Chrono Trigger as my third favorite game ever, and I would dance WITH f***ING GLEE, if it took out my top 2 on the way to the Title. |
I put way too much faith in Half Life --- Black: 0003 2733 6504 SS: 1677 7369 7003 |
question:
A topic that reach 500 posts stay alive for how long after the last
post. (I'm leaving for 2-3 days and I want to know if I'll be able to
catch up) Or is there anyone (Luster) that archive those and if so, can I have the link? |
The stats topics used to be archived somewhere. I don't know if people still do that. --- Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity. |
http://thengamer.com/stats/ It is archived there but the last ones (1989-1991) are missing. (edited 11/5/2015 3:06:48 PM)report |
So is Batman fodder? --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
foxhead84 posted... question: A topic that reach 500 posts stay alive for how long after the last post. (I'm leaving for 2-3 days and I want to know if I'll be able to catch up) TRE runs the stats topic archive, so he will archive these topics. You can find the archives here: http://thengamer.com/stats/ However, the archives have not been updated to include the last several topics. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Oh
hey, I bought new copies of all of the games (went ahead and bought the
R&C HD collection for PS3), so you can just keep them! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Oh man, Karma Hunter is finally back, the best statistical and analytical expert imo. --- Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man. |
also the new game in April, its so pretttttty you don't have to see the movie tho --- Communists |
KH, how the heck are ya and how much do you hate mgsv --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
No
offense take Leonhart! I've been a lurker of the stats topic since 2002
(lost my original account). This is the most I've ever posted in the
contest! I expect to take a little ribbing. --- Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity. |
-LusterSoldier- posted... foxhead84 posted...question: A topic that reach 500 posts stay alive for how long after the last post. (I'm leaving for 2-3 days and I want to know if I'll be able to catch up) Every time I check this I go to look at the L-Block 2007 topics. That was the greatest thing to ever happen in these. --- http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
TheKoolAidShoto posted... also the new game in April, its so pretttttty I probably will though. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Random thoughts: 86% for CT? Nice. I'm surprised it can get 86% on anything, good for it. CT = FFX implies HL gets 80% on R&C? Advantage pretty firmly CT. I wonder if MMX beating up Batman means anything in terms of old games vs new? Probably not much. I'll take it as a good sign anyway. |
RPGuy96 posted...
This is where I'm at right now. Need to see other matches, but it's a good start for the team classic. --- satoru iwata |
LeonhartFour posted... http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6050&num=2 Somehow the updater picked up yesterday's poll for some reason. I guess creativename will have to manually delete that. His updater has been known to pick up non-contest polls from time to time. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
I think the only "new" games that matter in this contest are Fallout 3, Mass Effect 2, and Skyrim. --- http://img.imgcake.com/whatisurnameplz/kermitgifre.gif Oh yea, I guess raytan won. |
I definitely feel now that the Arkham games have gotten weaker. Mostly because of Origins and Knight. Askylum and City were fantastic games but the newer ones probably made people look back and be like "were they really that good?" Arkham City is certainly a far better game than Origins or Knight but ultimately those might have been it's undoing. And yes Mega Man X probably got the overall Mega Man vote. Now lets see if that is enough to beat Final Fantasy X. lol Oh and I definitely think Portal 2 is stronger than Arkham. If Half-Life 1 got 35% on FFX then Portal 2 can beat Sonic 2. How much Idk. --- Video Games are pretty cool. |
Something
to keep in mind, when FFVII won it was what... seven years old? Does
the range of what's a classic move? Since the average age of voter has
increased is the time frame for classics set in stone? Games that were
'new' in 2004... do they count as classics? Are they still grouped with
the 'new' games? Is there now two different ranges of Nostalgia with
pecking order? Like.... where does the line for new and classic fall
exactly? Everything pre-ps2? Will we ever reach a point where games the
site played in their late teens and early twenties have that classic
nostalgia feel? --- Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity. |
Don't think ME2 is on the same level as the other two, but I've some doubts all around. --- satoru iwata |
SSB4 is probably pretty strong. It can't really do anything unless it somehow beats FF7, though. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
The
3 highest voted matches today are on track to finish with about 38000
votes. This is a pretty notable boost over this year's age poll which
just barely reached 30000 votes, considering the fact we also have
multiple matches running at the same time. And nearly twice as many
votes as our average PotD vote totals. The theory of multiple matches hurting vote totals has been BUSTED. Possibly, we could see even higher vote totals later in this round when the casuals have gotten adjusted to the new voting interface. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/9.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/10.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/11.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/12.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/13.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/14.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/15.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/16.jpg Contrast between MGS4 and KHII is almost as bad as Batman and MMX. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
that makes me want to back halo 3 --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
Ah, the Blue/Orange Contrast Factor strikes again, TLOU has no chance --- Communists (edited 11/5/2015 4:16:08 PM)report |
transcience posted... that makes me want to back halo 3 Right? That Halo 3 cover carries some weight next to two random people. --- satoru iwata |
I see you, Pikachu. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
Square about to get annihilated. --- Dr voltchball - best in the world. http://i.minus.com/iN5ZHjUDyI547.gif |
That GSC picture is hilarious Also the TWEWY picture is horrendous, I can't even read the title. --- http://img.imgcake.com/whatisurnameplz/kermitgifre.gif Oh yea, I guess raytan won. (edited 11/5/2015 5:07:08 PM)report |
Is
there a way to make results for all four matches appear at once? Would
love a feature like that on the Gamefaqsconstests site. Or anywhere,
really. Clicking all four matches is a bit of a pain. --- All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
Halo winning as a 15 Seed would be all kinds of incredible --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
whatisurnameplz posted... Also the TWEWY picture is horrendous, I can't even read the title. Fitting though, horrible game gets horrible picture. Thanks Allen for doing this justice ! --- Shooting Game never die. It prays that the clover of luck be always in your mind. |
GSC should've had Suicune instead of Pikachu --- "Max... I'll always be with you. Forever..." |
I'm glad to see Mega Man X do this well for my bracket's sake. I'm referring to Sonic 2 vs. Portal 2. I ended up siding with Sonic 2 because of the BOP.... not the fact that Sonic 2 got a lot of votes to beat Portal, but that quite a few brackets picked Uncharted 2 to make round 3. If some people actually choose Uncharted 2 over Portal 2, then maybe Portal 2 really won't have strength anything like the original. Not the best reasoning, but it's one way to approach a debatable match with less bias. But then I completely forgot the reason I took Portal 2 in the first place - the fact that GlaDOS avoided a doubling against Snake. But at least MMX might be a good sign for Sonic. Oh, and it's kinda weird how Mega Man X is winning the day vote against Batman. ...but it is, well, Batman.... --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." (edited 11/5/2015 6:20:32 PM)report |
Haste_2 posted... I'm glad to see Mega Man X do this well for my bracket's sake. I'm referring to Sonic 2 vs. Portal 2. He is the night, after all. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
yeah I'm surprised that MMX held up so well. a game like Batman is usually casual bait. trends seem a lot different in the era of smartphones though --- xyzzy |
ROUND 1 – DAY 2 – BOTTOM OF DIVISION 1 Match V: (3) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. (14) Portal Previous Performance Super Smash Bros. Melee – 2010 87.16% against Guitar Hero II 71.39% against The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 69.36% against Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 48.92% against Super Smash Bros. Brawl Portal – 2010 71.47% against Gears of War 2 59.98% against Final Fantasy XII 54.32% against Mass Effect 44.54% against Resident Evil 4 Analysis It’s a shame Portal got placed in an unwinnable match, I feel the game could have done some damage. I always thought Portal would be the type of game that would fall off the face of the Earth, but my judgement on the game and characters have always been wrong. GlaDOS still looked pretty strong in 2013, years after free Portal was given out on Steam. Still it would take quite the drop from Melee to be threatened here. Melee will be looking to win the division by defeating CT/FFX. There has been some talk that Melee may be weaker now with the new Smash game, but I disagree, the game still looked as strong as ever after Brawl came out so I wouldn’t expect it to be much weaker. Through Resident Evil 4 Portal was expected to get 38.47% on Final Fantasy X in 2010 so I expect Melee to get somewhere around there. charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Melee > Portal charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee wins, 63.18% - 36.82% Match VI: (6) Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal vs. (11) The World Ends With You Previous Performance Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal – 2010 73.28% against Advance Wars 70.86% against Mario Kart Wii 44.05% against The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask The World Ends With You – 2010 49.09% against Dead Rising Analysis I know a lot of us were disappointed in Pokemon GSC for losing to Majora’s Mask, but when everything was said and done the game performed well. Due to bracket position the game is mostly in a one and done position. The game would need a very strong performance to convince people it would have a chance next round, but I feel most people would just chalk it up to TWEWY being weak. With that said TWEWY is weak and has never won a thing, despite the contest Gods giving it every opportunity. Neku has lost to both Laharl and Catherine while the game itself lost a very winnable match against Dead Rising. Assuming Pokemon has not lost a step this could end up being close to a tripling. charmander6000’s Bracket: Pokemon GSC > The World Ends With You charmander6000’s Prediction: Pokemon GSC wins, 74.71% - 25.29% --- BGE3: Today's Matches CT>R&C, P3>DQ8, Batman>MMX, FFX>HL Points 0/0 |
Match VII: (7) Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots vs. (10) Kingdom Hearts II Previous Performance Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots – 2010 63.59% against Assassin’s Creed 54.88% against Diablo II 49.57% against Shadow of the Colossus Kingdom Hearts II – 2010 63.81% against Halo 2 56.27% against BioShock 52.42% against Kingdom Hearts 42.90% against The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess Analysis This is a type of match where it would have been very debated in 2010, but in terms of brackets is one sided now because people assumed one game has aged horribly, not that it helped us with DQ8/Persona 3. Metal Gear Solid 4 has had quite the fall since almost winning Game of the Year. In 2009 it already looked as if it lost a step against Brawl where it needed a favourable match-up to win while in 2010 it was pushed aside by SotC though even its match against Diablo II wasn’t too impressive. You could say that the game and its perception has aged horribly over the years. Kingdom Hearts II may also be weaker now with the series essentially lying dormant outside of spin-offs until just recently when Kingdom Hearts III was announced. Even if it is weaker now I don’t expect it to drop as much as Metal Gear Solid 4. I think the best argument is that Kingdom Hearts II went even with MGS3 and while MGS4 almost had the same performance against SotC I don’t think we had the same Shadow of the Colossus as it went through the Metal Gear Solid gauntlet. Overall the match could potentially be pretty close. charmander6000’s Bracket: Kingdom Hearts II > Metal Gear Solid 4 charmander6000’s Prediction: Kingdom Hearts II wins, 55.26% - 44.74% Match VIII: (2) The Last of Us vs. (15) Halo 3 Previous Performance The Last of Us – N/A N/A Halo 3 – 2010 52.53% against Super Mario Sunshine 43.08% against Halo: Combat Evolved Analysis Maybe it’s because of my mistrust on the strength of “new” games on GameFAQs, but I had difficulty taking The Last of Us as the winner. Sure it almost beat a Zelda game for Game of the Year, but those polls have been often wrong plus it wasn’t a top tier Zelda game it defeated. If it wasn’t up against Halo I may have taken the upset. The recent release of Halo 5 may be helpful in this match, especially since it has been a while since Halo has been given a significant release. I personally don’t think Halo 3 is too much weaker than the original and any difference in the direct match-up was more due to the fan base’s taste. Anyway don’t be surprised if The Last of Us ends up fighting for its life. With Batman already performing poorly should Halo 3 pull off the upset it may be time to sound the alarm for newer games. charmander6000’s Bracket: The Last of Us > Halo 3 charmander6000’s Prediction: The Last of Us wins, 53.22% - 46.78% --- BGE3: Today's Matches CT>R&C, P3>DQ8, Batman>MMX, FFX>HL Points 0/0 |
Huh, the DSV actually got more votes than the ASV. If that's not an indication that the ASV doesn't exist in a meaningful way anymore, then I dunno what is. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Tag |
In
numerous polls in the past (those that I have tracked), a lot of them
typically see more votes during the DSV than the ASV, even when they
occur on a weekday during the school year. In some cases, the ASV will
just barely get more votes than the DSV. We also don't get any spike
in the hourly vote totals around the time the ASV would normally kick
in. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Anyone else notice the DQ8 v P3 matchup has about 1,000 less votes than all the others. Kind of odd. --- Don't mind me. I'm just here for the contest. |
Eh, it makes sense. Neither game is as well known as the other games (except UYA). --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
