GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1192
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcjkkBtXgIc ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
Still angry at SMB3/RBY second round. --- "You get wood, I get yellow." -Hal "Guacamole Lantern" Jordan |
I'm not! --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
FBike1 posted... Still angry at SMB3/RBY second round. As long as Mario 3 wins, it'll be fine! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
So utirusX samus match you looooove tk brag about. You pick 51% that's basically saying white or blank. You made no real move (edited 10/31/2015 7:45:40 PM)report |
November must be a very s***ty month for games if Fallout 4 is managing to pull in 50% in a 10-way poll. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
DatBooty posted... So utirusX samus match you looooove tk brag about. You pick 51% that's basically saying white or blank. You made no real move http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=57 --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
It just dawned on me. There's 4 matches per day in round 2, aren't there? --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
Poll updates and trend charts for yesterday's poll: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oL8S7ghHvP6TaXjC4o2xCaCJrfVWst6LBteG7YGk6ew/pub?gid=179666242 This will almost certainly be the final time I post trend charts for a regular poll before this contest begins. Anyways, yesterday's poll had some very strong trends and I was expecting these trends after seeing the trends from other Halloween related polls. "I just did, or I'm planning to" had a below average board vote and Power Hour. It performs worst during the night vote and early morning vote. The late morning vote and day vote were slightly above average, while it performs best during the SNV. "It's only been a year or two" had an above average board vote and Power Hour. Outside of the Power Hour, the rest of its trends are pretty much the same as those for "I just did, or I'm planning to". "It's been several years" had a very strong board vote and Power Hour, but it quickly goes downhill after the second hour of the night vote. Overall, it had a fairly average night vote, although that's misleading since it's the early part of the night vote that keeps its entire night vote from looking terrible. It performs worst during the dead zone and the early morning vote. After the early morning vote wears off, it manages to rebound again and perform much better. But it was never able to regain the same level of strength that it had during the Power Hour, with the day vote and SNV only being slightly above average as a whole. During this poll, "It's been several years" reached a maximum vote lead of 823 (at 3:25 AM) over "I've never gone trick-or-treating". After that point in time, "I've never gone trick-or-treating" started cutting into that lead and managed to get the lead all the way down to 178 at 9:00 AM before "It's been several years" put a halt on that comeback attempt and finally started to build up its lead again on route to finish with a 1503 vote lead. Despite a very interesting comeback attempt, it fall short of achieving a lead change due to the trends working against "I've never gone trick-or-treating". Starting from the 1:00 AM update where it had 39.16%, "It's been several years" lost a total of 9.93% to reach its lowest percentage of 29.23% at 10:50 AM before it started to increase its percentage again. After 10:50 AM, it gained 1.53% to finish the poll with a final percentage of 30.78%. "I haven't gone since I was little" also had a strong board vote and Power Hour. Although it does perform worst during the night vote and early morning vote, it still manages to hold up reasonably well during its worst time period where it averages about 34% of the vote intake. After the morning vote wears off, it starts performing better with its late morning vote and day vote being roughly on par with its Power Hour. Finally, it performed best during the SNV, which was even better than its Power Hour. While not directly visible on the lead columns for the poll updates, "I haven't gone since I was little" reached a maximum lead of 956 (at 4:30 AM) over "I've never gone trick-or-treating" before it started to cut into that lead. However, "I've never gone trick-or-treating" only managed to get that lead down to 825 at 7:55 AM before "I haven't gone since I was little" started extending its lead on route to finish with a final vote lead of 3347. Starting from the 1:00 AM update where it had 42.30%, "I haven't gone since I was little" lost a total of 4.16% to reach its lowest percentage of 38.14% at 7:55 AM before it started to increase its percentage again. After 7:55 AM, it gained 2.48% to finish the poll with a final percentage of 40.62%. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
"I've
never gone trick-or-treating" had a very terrible board vote and Power
Hour. When the night vote started, it became progressively stronger
before reaching its maximum level of strength during the dead zone and
the first 2 hours of the morning vote. "I've never gone
trick-or-treating" won a total of 4 hours over "I haven't gone since I
was little", while it won a total of 6 hours over "It's been several
years". After getting 2 hours into the morning vote, "I've never gone
trick-or-treating" quickly dropped off hard and performed terribly for
the rest of the poll. The late morning vote, day vote, and SNV were all
below average (though still better than its Power Hour). During the
day vote after the 5:00 PM mark, "I've never gone trick-or-treating"
performed better than usual for the next 2 hours, probably as a result a
European vote rush right before the Europeans started going to bed for
the night. Starting from the 1:00 AM update where it had 12.49%, "I've never gone trick-or-treating" gained a total of 14.66% to reach its maximum percentage of 27.15% at 8:40 AM before its percentage started dropping again. After 8:40 AM, it lost 4.39% to finish the poll with a final percentage of 22.76%. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
-LusterSoldier- posted... November must be a very s***ty month for games if Fallout 4 is managing to pull in 50% in a 10-way poll. LeonhartFour posted... Or Fallout 4 is just that hyped. Maybe it's both! Also I should really spend today actually going through my bracket because I haven't touched it since I did a quick run when it went up. This is definitely going to be a tricky one. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IX - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3729662 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
UltimaterializerX posted... DatBooty posted...So utirusX samus match you looooove tk brag about. You pick 51% that's basically saying white or blank. You made no real move Don't see you on that list. Also, you didn't win the contest in you sig, you tied. Kind of a difference. --- Shooting Game never die. It prays that the clover of luck be always in your mind. |
UltimaterializerX posted... It just dawned on me. There's 4 matches per day in round 2, aren't there? I think so. IIRC we revert to two matches per day in round 3 and then one match per day after that. In some ways this fixes some problems we've started to have with contests, like some people being disgruntled at the 12-hour match format (for killing big comebacks or trends swings I suppose?) and at round 1 lasting too long, especially last time. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
LinkMarioSamus posted... UltimaterializerX posted...It just dawned on me. There's 4 matches per day in round 2, aren't there? Dat after school vote --- Shooting Game never die. It prays that the clover of luck be always in your mind. |
Tag Melee > FF7 WW > FF6 |
I
like how Wind Waker > FFVI is not an unpopular upset pick, yet I'm
not picking it even though I'm a huge fan of the former (part of it is
that I'm a huge fan of FFVI as well and know that FFVI losing would
probably be at least just as much an indication of FFVI's weakness
compared to WW's strength. Plus FFVI stuff has performed well on this
site the past few years anyway). And I'm sure Ulti will love seeing FFVI murder Wind Waker. Bah. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/1/2015 8:11:14 AM)report |
Has there been any news of match pics? No submission form and the contest starts soon. Luster what would you think the URL would be? --- Menji+ http://i.imgur.com/pPZsSZU.gif http://i.imgur.com/UswGW35.gif |
It will probably be box arts for the first round. --- Board Odds Project; Post Your Bracket: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72683134 |
We're looking for some guests for our audio podcasts. PM me if interested! All you need is a microphone and a lot of patience --- Watch me play games! http://www.twitch.tv/lordofdabu |
What's the name of the podcast? I see "The Show" on iTunes but looks like it ended after the 2010 contest. --- Dragon Ball Super. Star Wars Episode VII. Final Fantasy VII remake. Nostalgia is a powerful drug and I'm going to need rehab. |
Menji76 posted... Has there been any news of match pics? No submission form and the contest starts soon. I felt that if Allen hasn't put up the submission form heading into the final weekend before the contest started, we weren't going to have match pic submissions for the first round with Allen doing all of the match pics himself. The Owner of FF9 posted... What's the name of the podcast? I see "The Show" on iTunes but looks like it ended after the 2010 contest. It's called "The Show" and you really shouldn't be relying on iTunes to get the latest episodes because iTunes is very much out of date with having the latest episodes listed there. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
My guess is this for Round 1 at least we are just going to get BoxArt from Games' profiles. --- Anime List: http://myanimelist.net/profile/superange VG List: http://myvideogamelist.com/profile/superange128 Visual Novels: https://vndb.org/u6633/votes |
Remission posted... Dat after school vote The ASV doesn't really exist anymore. As the average age of this site's users has continued to increase (based on the age polls), our ASV has also gotten weaker at the same time. Right now, the ASV is pretty much non-existent. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
This
poll seems ridiculously impressive for Fallout 4. No matter how far I
go back it doesn't seem any game has dominated one of these polls this
much. Kind of makes me want to take Skyrim further in my bracket since
those games appeal to the same type of people. --- 9/2/13-The Hero of GameFAQs fought bravely but fell to an unrelenting horde supported by a corrupt tyranny. R.I.P. Hero of Time, 7 time CB Champion, Link |
There
have been numerous hype polls where a game has managed to pull in
between 40-50%, but it is fairly rare for a game to get over 50% in one
of these polls. Actually, I have found 3 other polls where a game got
over 50%. Here are those 3 polls: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3409- http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3226- http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2860- In the first poll, Resident Evil 5 got over 50% because that was an extremely weak month. In the second poll, Star Wars: The Force Unleashed got over 50% as well, but that poll had only 7 games and it was also an extremely weak month. In the third poll, Halo 3 recorded the highest percentage ever seen in a hype poll. All those of those polls I linked to only had 7 or 8 games. Today's poll is the first time we've seen a game get over 50% in a hype poll that featured 10 games and this line-up is much better than the games listed in the polls I just linked to. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Does
anyone else think there's a real possibility a LOT of these matches are
gonna be turned completely on their heads because of the lack of data
we have along with the lower votals susceptible to rallying? Some of
these newer games will be completely unpredictable. Skyrim could either
be a huge game or a complete bust. I could see it easily losing to
Metroid Prime especially with lower votals. Don't think it has enough
potential to beat Mario 64 in any scenario though. MGSV... I feel a big backlash against it but there's also a lot of people who think it's the best MGS ever. I could see it losing to Dark Souls with low votals. Portal 2 is another one... I'm thinking did Sonic lose that much cred that Portal 2 could take it out? I'm going Portal 2 for now... I still don't really trust Galaxy's impact. I'm taking Super Metroid because I think it has the "cred" among the more hardcore gaming community. GTAV could be a monster or could go down to SMRPG thanks to lower votals and the RPG lovers on the site. I also have no clue about Chrono Cross, it feels like it's gained a lot more respect over the years but I can't decide if it would best GTA or WoW. Oblivion is another crapshoot but I think Skyrim has actually hurt it... seems like Oblivion gets zero respect on the internet now. I can't see SMRPG losing but you never know. Borderlands 2 and Earthbound seems like such a trap too. Borderlands 2 has the recency but I just can't gauge whether people actually give a s*** about it to vote for it. Could be the same deal for Mario Maker vs Fire Emblem. Mario Maker is huge on reddit and twitch right now but I think GF's core fanbase will be enough. But it could take a very small rally to push Mario to victory. FFVII and Pokemon are the biggest wildcards for sure. Right now I have Pokemon losing to Mario 64 just because I think they're both from the same era and people more fondly remember Mario 64 and I think people are getting a little sick of Pokemon... but it'll beat Mario 3 and World because they're too old. Kind of a coinflip though, Pokemon might rally enough. FFVII could completely bust but for now I'm banking on it to reach finals. I think the remake announcement proved there is still a lotta love out there for it. There is still a real perception out there that FF wins too much in these things too... and there are a LOT of FF games in the bracket and people could get sick of seeing it. Zelda it seems doesn't get the same grief maybe because there are less entries in the bracket or it just has enough raw strength that it doesn't even matter. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
Nobody really knows what to expect from this contest! It's mostly guesswork aside from most people picking OoT to win! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
The
poll scheduled for November 2nd started one hour earlier than usual
because of the North American DST change that happened earlier today.
Because of this, the vote totals are getting off to a really slow start
because the average person wouldn't have expected a new poll to go up at
11:00 PM EST. So we'll probably see a vote spike when we get to 12:00
AM EST. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
It
took about 10 minutes to reach 200 votes in the current poll right now.
I was surprised when the freeze didn't happen at the 5 minute mark,
but I remember Allen saying something during the previous Character
Battle when we were complaining about the early freezes (where the match
would have a freeze before reaching the 5 minute mark) and Allen stated
the freeze will never happen before reaching 200 votes. I guess this
applies to regular polls as well, since the freeze happened at 205 votes
in the current poll. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
The
only way RBY beats Mario 3 is if SMW having a poll at the same time
steals Mario 3's votes because people think they can only vote for one
thing. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
UltimaterializerX posted... The only way RBY beats Mario 3 is if SMW having a poll at the same time steals Mario 3's votes because people think they can only vote for one thing. if people haven't figured that out by round 2 then this site is really dumb --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
UltimaterializerX posted... The only way RBY beats Mario 3 is if SMW having a poll at the same time steals Mario 3's votes because people think they can only vote for one thing. Back in the CJayC era when he would occasionally put up a second poll below the contest match, it's possible the second poll got less votes than usual because some people think they can only vote in one poll. So if someone had to choose just one poll to vote in, they would prefer to vote in the contest match. However, the second poll is also less visible because it's farther down on the page, which also contributes to the reduced vote totals for the second poll. I hope that Allen puts a message on the homepage stating that you can vote in more than one poll if you want to. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
LeonhartFour posted... this site is really dumb Yes it is! --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
As
would be expected, the number of votes per update in the current poll
spiked after rolling over to the next day (it started one hour earlier
than normal). The first update after the normal starting time had
roughly twice as many votes compared to what we were we getting per
update during the one hour prior to the normal starting time. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! (edited 11/1/2015 9:09:59 PM)report |
To pass the time - what do people think is the best match of each contest? I'll start with the obvious, Mario/Crono for SC2K2 and probably Mario/Crono II for SC2K3 (also perhaps the most controversial match ever). UltimaterializerX posted... The only way RBY beats Mario 3 is if SMW having a poll at the same time steals Mario 3's votes because people think they can only vote for one thing. Are you really so confident in SMB3>Pokemon or are you just being contrarian? |
I think I'm gonna make a second bracket just to account for pokefear... |
Ulti
just likes to be loud about certain picks so he feels he has the right
to shove it in people's faces in the event he's right. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I'm
picking Mario 3 to win that match but I have like no confidence. I'm
just picking it because I somehow find it easier to see Mario winning
that. For all we know we're overestimating RBY though. In BGE2 it got a draw against three games on the same console in Round 1, and Majora's Mask wasn't as highly-regarded back then. Then in Round 3 it lucked out by Metal Gear Solid and FFVIII being in the same poll. We're probably just panicking at all the seeming Pokemon overperformances. In the last games contest we had the series tanked. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
RBY
got 48% in its first round match against three Nintendo 64 entrants. At
worst it's equal to Majora's Mask, which depending on who you ask is
equal or just below FFX. I would debate taking SMB3/SMW over FFX. Also
RBY had OoT to contend with in round 3 so it didn't entirely lucked out. Unless you think Pokemon is weaker now or they are a four-ways wonder then SMB3/RBY will be close unless SFF becomes a factor. --- Board Odds Project; Post Your Bracket: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72683134 (edited 11/2/2015 10:20:33 AM)report |
I think pokemon is stronger now. X/Y grew the fanbase. |
Leon always trying to keep the white male down --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
creativename posted... Are you really so confident in SMB3>Pokemon or are you just being contrarian? Until Mario actually loses one of these debated Nintendo vs Nintendo matches, he's the favorite in all of them. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
charmander6000 posted... RBY got 48% in its first round match against three Nintendo 64 entrants. Actually... http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3462-division-5-round-1-banjo-kazooie-perfect-dark-pokemon-zelda Got a little over half of all the votes in that match. Which is actually a significant difference because even if you assume that MM had 100% overlap with Banjo and Perfect Dark, RBY still wins. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
You guys used that match to justify GSC > Majora too, and you were wrong then. LOL, X-stats. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
Thought RBY only got 48%, my bad. The x-stats predicted GSC > Majora almost perfectly. We just chose to ignore it and substituted our own values. --- Board Odds Project; Post Your Bracket: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72683134 |
Majora's Mask is a far cry from the upper echelon. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
Can't believe this is starting only the day after tomorrow! --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
