GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1191
Safer_777 posted... Can someone tell me a good tiebreaker? It must be hundreds of thousands of votes, correct? The tiebreaker question for this contest has been changed this year. In the past, you had to either predict the vote totals of the final match or predict how many votes the winner receives in the final match. This is the tiebreaker question for this contest: How many total votes will be cast through all 127 battles? This means you have to predict the overall vote totals for all 127 matches combined. Assuming something like an average of 30000 votes per match, that means an expected 3810000 combined votes over the course of the entire contest. There are still some other factors to consider, like the possibility of reduced vote totals because we will have multiple matches running at the same time. An ideal tiebreaker would be somewhere in the range of 3 million to 4 million. I wouldn't be surprised if we managed to get over 4 million votes over the course of the entire contest, if Allen manages to come up with an idea to prevent reduced vote totals as a result of multiple matches running at the same time. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! (edited 10/20/2015 3:22:30 PM)report |
Also if rallying becomes a big thing, 4 million will easily be eclipsed. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
I'm
not too confident in RBY beating SMB3, honestly. These low votals
could really help SMB3.... though maybe not. Low vote totals hurt Mario
as a character considerably. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
The Pokemon characters did quite well with 2013's low votals, so I don't think RBY will suffer too much. And of course, Mario lost to Vivi. Characters aren't games, but these two signs are good for RBY. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ (edited 10/20/2015 5:18:50 PM)report |
RBY
has a very insane contest path that could easily make or break your
bracket. To finish with the highest scoring bracket, it is essential to
correctly predict RBY's path. RBY could potentially face off against 5 contest heavyweights in SMB3, SMW, SM64, FFVII, and OoT. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
I return to you at the turn of the tide. |
AlecTrevelyan006 posted... I return to you at the turn of the tide. Slardar too good. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
I really don't know enough about GameFAQs voter base any more... Time to pick GOLDENEYE TO FINALS CHOOCHOO |
So, um... Division VII. What do we make of this s***-fest? Normally, the saving grace of highly debatable 8-9 matches is that they're only worth 1 point, but (8)Oblivion vs. (9)Super Mario RPG is a 7-point match. I'm leaning heavily towards SMRPG, but...it's a 7-point match. An 8-9 match where the winner is almost guaranteed 3 wins. That next fourpack is especially brutal, because GTA and WoW are both proven chokers...knowing what WoW does on this site, I have to go with Chrono Cross in Round 1. And GTA chokes big enough that as hard as it is to take anything recent, a popular current indie like Shovel Knight might just be able to beat San Andreas. But then...CC vs. Shovel Knight in Round 2? I hate the idea of taking something recent without the backing of a proven franchise to Round 3, but...Chrono Cross. Especially with Chrono Trigger far from guaranteed a spot in Round 4, the idea of CC making it as far as CT... And on the bottom half...I think we have a chance that the weakest of the eight 14-seeds will be the only one to reach Round 2. I have zero faith in The Witcher 3, owing to the fact that this is the first I've ever heard of this franchise despite it apparently being the third game in the series. Is this another one of those things like Five Nights at Freddy's where they just release sequels at an insane pace? Because I think there was like maybe a little over a year between the release of FNAF and FNAF4. The 7-10 matchup is debatable, but really, I feel like 15-seed Paper Mario might actually be the third-strongest game in that division--and it'll be gone in Round 1 because RE4 is the 2-seed and wins this division easily. Seriously, why do we get stacked divisions like Division I and then we have divisions like this where there are only a few good games. I mean it; Division I has hardly any weak links. There are a few that obviously aren't going far but I think every last one of them could beat at least a quarter of Division VII and most of them could beat half of it. --- FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, Jungle, and Ocean |
DKC2 is the only 14 seed that might win a match --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
Chrono Trigger to open the contest! And then it gets to face FFX and SSBM. Yes! This bracket is looking good so far. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
SMB3/RBY in round 2 is stacked.......that's way more power than a round 2 matchup should get. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
TsunamiXXVIII posted... I have zero faith in The Witcher 3, owing to the fact that this is the first I've ever heard of this franchise despite it apparently being the third game in the series. Is this another one of those things like Five Nights at Freddy's where they just release sequels at an insane pace? Wow. --- http://i.imgur.com/0JdOe85.gif http://i.imgur.com/GzqvnBq.jpg |
Xuxon posted... DKC2 is the only 14 seed that might win a match I keep flipping back and forth on that. Have DKC2 winning for now. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
How much of a boost you think Smash 4 potentially gave Xenoblade? --- "i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745 |
I guess maybe I should be less condescending? There are years between releases of Witcher games. Witcher 2 was HUGE when it came out, one of the best looking games around with a raving reception, a video card seller. Witcher 3 is one of the biggest games this year, and I will be extremely surprised if a single major gaming site doesn't have it at the very least in the running for GotY, if not taking the win. --- http://i.imgur.com/0JdOe85.gif http://i.imgur.com/GzqvnBq.jpg |
Yeah the series seems to be one game every four years. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Undyne posted... TsunamiXXVIII posted...I have zero faith in The Witcher 3, owing to the fact that this is the first I've ever heard of this franchise despite it apparently being the third game in the series. Is this another one of those things like Five Nights at Freddy's where they just release sequels at an insane pace? http://www.polygon.com/2015/6/9/8751113/the-witcher-3-sales To be fair it didn't really get big until the 3rd game. It took The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt just two weeks to sell four million copies, according to developer CD Projekt Red co-founder Marcin Iwiński. The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings took about three months to hit 940,000 in sales. Still surprising to see people who didn't know Witcher 2 though. I can understand Witcher 1 though, it was kinda niche. --- http://steamsignature.com/card/0/76561197979294707.png |
So
if I remember correctly, this starts as 4 matches a day. But has it
been figured out what round it drops down to 2 matches a day and then 1? |
Jesse_Custer posted... So if I remember correctly, this starts as 4 matches a day. But has it been figured out what round it drops down to 2 matches a day and then 1? Round 3 it drops to two. Round 5 it drops to one. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
MarioSuperstar posted... How much of a boost you think Smash 4 potentially gave Xenoblade? None. It probably helped Shulk, but Xenoblade itself probably gets nothing. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Jesse_Custer posted... So if I remember correctly, this starts as 4 matches a day. But has it been figured out what round it drops down to 2 matches a day and then 1? This is the exact set-up for those who don't know yet: Round 1 - 4 matches per day Round 2 - 4 matches per day Round 3 - 2 matches per day Round 4 and beyond - 1 match per day All matches will be 24 hours long. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
I thought it was 4, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1? --- http://myvideogamelist.com/mylist/superange128 http://myanimelist.net/profile/superange http://vndb.org/u6633/votes |
In
the 2 weeks leading up to the nomination form going live, Allen posted a
series of topics on Board 8 hinting at various aspects of the contest.
One of the topics he posted had a topic title that said "Four Four Two
One One One One" and the first post of the topic said "And then we're
done." This topic was consistent with a contest that has 7 rounds. The
topic title was interpreted as the number of matches per day for each
round of the contest. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
superange128 posted... I thought it was 4, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1? that would be 43 days. and checking the dates, November 5th to December 22nd is 47 days --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
Haven't
seen much discussion about how the really low votals (with potential 4
matches/day) is going to affect some of these matchups. I'm also really curious as to how SMM and MGSV will do, given both are equally likely to win GOTY this year. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
Hey
Luster, Is creativename still around. Will his site be updated in order
to follow 4 matches at once. I really love to follow the contest with
this feature. and by the way could you please give me the link. I have lost the link to the site when my old computer died. Thanks |
while on the subject, is Yoblazer still here... Will we have new episode of The Show... |
I
sent an email to creativename less than one hour after the bracket was
revealed. So far, he is not responded to my email or visited the site
after the bracket was revealed. But yeah, his site will have to be
updated to track poll updates for 4 matches at once. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
I
could find a Metacritic score for 116/128 games. The game with the
highest Metascore is Ocarina of Time (99). 81/116 have a Metascore of 90
or more. 115/116 have a Metascore of 80 or more. Destiny has a
Metascore of 76. The games with the highest GameFAQs User Rating are Undertale and Monster Hunter 4U (4.66). 9/128 are 4.60 or higher. 32/128 are 4.50 or higher. 73/128 are 4.40 or higher. 107/128 are 4.30 or higher. 120/128 are 4.20 or higher. 125/128 are 4.00 or higher. The last three are World of Warcraft (3.99), Hearthstone (3.77) and Destiny (3.68). I actually forgot that he used the Metascores for expansions (Destiny: The Taken King is 85) so I'll probably go and update those in later. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
My take on SMM: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72687011/834546444 The game has gotten people involved in a way that no other game has, which should count as a unique advantage (not a huge boost, but it will help a little bit, especially with people who haven't played either game). It also probably helps that its first 2 rounds are both Nintendo games. --- Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords. With what? ROT-13? -CJayC |
foxhead84 posted... while on the subject, is Yoblazer still here... Will we have new episode of The Show... Yes and yes, coming REAL soon, keep doing a search for "show" every hour. --- board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats Whoops, accidentally interviewed Zen instead of raytan on The Show, but congrats! |
^^ YESSSS I'm definitely standing in line..... to see (hear) the show.... |
I have updated the BOP (14 Brackets). See Full Results Here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BiD4_uBz5Gekzps4SoNzSbigW53rWQCbf5IzBaR9QeY Here are some of the close matches and ones that were debated early on. It's interesting to see some matches have such lopsided support. Also it looks like we have no idea on the Xenoblade/DKC2/Awakening/SMM four-pack ROUND 1 Division 1 Mega Man X - 10 Batman: Arkham City - 4 Kingdom Hearts II - 9 Metal Gear Solid 4 - 5 Division 2 Paper Mario: TTYD - 11 Tales of Symphonia - 3 Halo: Combat Evolved - 11 Minecraft - 3 Division 3 Portal 2 - 9 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 5 Division 5 Suikoden II - 10 Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate - 4 Final Fantasy IX - 9 Kingdom Hearts - 5 Xenoblade Chronicles - 8 Donkey Kong Country 2 - 6 Super Mario Maker - 8 Fire Emblem: Awakening - 6 Division 6 Final Fantasy XII - 9 Bloodborne - 5 Division 7 Super Mario RPG - 7 Oblivion - 7 Fallout: New Vegas - 11 BioShock Infinite - 3 Division 8 Borderlands 2 - 7 Earthbound - 7 Red Dead Redemption - 11 Bayonetta 2 - 3 --- Board Odds Project; Post Your Bracket: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72683134 |
ROUND 2 Kingdom Hearts II - 8 Metal Gear Solid 4 - 4 The Last of Us - 2 Pokemon Red/Blue - 11 Super Mario Bros. 3 - 3 Portal 2 - 7 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 4 Uncharted 2 - 3 Super Mario World - 11 Final Fantasy VIII - 3 Skyrim - 11 GoldenEye 007 - 3 Metroid Prime - 11 Half-Life 2 - 3 Final Fantasy IX - 8 Kingdom Hearts - 5 Okami - 1 Super Mario Maker - 4 Donkey Kong Country 2 - 4 Xenoblade Chronicles - 3 Fire Emblem: Awakening - 3 Metal Gear Solid V - 9 Dark Souls - 4 Perfect Dark - 1 Super Mario Galaxy - 9 Super Metroid - 5 Super Mario RPG - 6 Oblivion - 5 Grand Theft Auto V - 3 GTA: San Andreas - 9 World of Warcraft - 3 Chrono Cross - 2 Shadow of the Colossus - 11 Red Dead Redemption - 3 Mass Effect 2 - 11 Starcraft - 3 ROUND 3 Final Fantasy X - 12 Chrono Trigger - 2 Final Fantasy VI - 10 LoZ: The Wind Waker - 3 Star Wars: KOTOR - 1 Super Mario World - 11 Fallout 3 - 2 Final Fantasy VIII - 1 Skyrim - 10 GoldenEye 007 - 2 Half-Life 2 - 1 Metroid Prime - 1 Castlevania: SotN - 10 Banjo-Kazooie - 2 Super Mario Maker - 1 Fire Emblem: Awakening - 1 Metal Gear Solid 3 - 10 Mass Effect 2 - 4 ROUND 4 Super Smash Bros. Melee - 10 Final Fantasy X - 4 Final Fantasy VII - 10 Final Fantasy VI - 4 Pokemon Red/Blue - 11 Super Mario World - 3 Metal Gear Solid - 10 Metal Gear Solid 3 - 2 Mass Effect 2 - 2 ROUND 5 Final Fantasy VII - 8 Super Smash Bros. Melee - 3 Final Fantasy VI - 2 Final Fantasy X - 1 Pokemon Red/Blue - 8 Super Mario 64 - 5 Super Mario World - 1 Metal Gear Solid - 7 Resident Evil 4 - 5 Metal Gear Solid 3 - 1 Grand Theft Auto V - 1 ROUND 6 Pokemon Red/Blue - 5 Final Fantasy VII - 5 Super Mario 64 - 2 Final Fantasy X - 1 Final Fantasy VI - 1 ROUND 7 LoZ: Ocarina of Time - 13 Pokemon Red/Blue - 1 --- Board Odds Project; Post Your Bracket: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72683134 |
Safer_777 posted... Can someone tell me a good tiebreaker? It must be hundreds of thousands of votes, correct? Well I don't mind saying I used 3,400,000 for a fun bracket, my gut picks bracket. I know the votals go up for contests but running 4 matches at once may counteract that slightly. So going off a base of 25k votes per match, that's about 3.2mil. Add 200,000 for fudge factor because the contest hype will make some matches have higher totals. Now that I think about it though...vote stuffi g and rallying means most matches will get more than the average poll has been getting lately. So 3.5mil s probably a good baseline to start. Maybe the total will end up being more like 3.75mil (which is ~30k per match) or even 4 mil. But that's a ballpark to start guessing, I would think. I'm going back and changing mine now that I've thought about it. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. (edited 10/21/2015 8:33:05 PM)report |
Also, yay for Chrono Trigger getting a decent path :D may not beat FFX but it should be fun close match for once --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
The
last Character Battle (well, the 24 hour matches at least) had roughly
25% more votes than the polls leading up to the start of the contest.
Non-contest polls leading up to the start of the contest were averaging
about 40000 votes, while the 24 hour matches from that contest averaged
around 51000 votes. Assuming this holds up for this contest, we would be expected to get about 25000 votes per match since we're currently averaging about 20000 votes for non-contest polls right now. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
#roastmybracket Melee FF7 P R/B SM64 Z: OoT Z: LttP New Vegas MGS3 FF7 P R/BB Z: OoT MGS 3 P R/B Z:OoT Ocarina of Time wins Basically I have no idea for division 7/8 so I homer-picked new Vegas and guessed MGS 3 for the last one. But last contest convinced me of the power of Pokemon. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
I
have a personal theory about Pokemon R/B/Y. It involves it getting
weaker since 2009. This is just speculation so bear with me. Essentially, in 2009, there were a lot less Pokemon games. Nostalgia for the first two generations are at an all-time high. In 2010, Heart Gold and Soul Silver are hyped to the max. But since those years... we've had Black/White as well as a sequel to them, X/Y, and Alpha/Omega. A lot of Pokemon games have been released since then, and I have to wonder with the introduction of two new generations and a remake to yet another, if the "nostalgia rush" for the first generation died down just a little bit? It kinda makes sense to me. R/B/Y stood out more when there were less games and less remakes. With the addition of each generation, you're more likely to play more than just R/B/Y, and I feel like many people realize that R/B/Y is not as perfect as everybody realized.. and is really just another Pokemon generation in a long line of generations and remakes. Even if any of this is true for a tiny bit, it would be more than enough reason for me to still have SMB3 over it. Its run in 2009 just feels a little too.. strange. The only thing that kinda slaps this theory off are the R/B/Y Pokemon doing well in character battles but you could also argue that they're seen as "joke" options ala L-Block. --- "i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745 (edited 10/21/2015 8:53:27 PM)report |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Haven't seen much discussion about how the really low votals (with potential 4 matches/day) is going to affect some of these matchups. I've been thinking this as well. Each match is a LOT more susceptible to rallies than in the past. Which was crazy enough last year...fun, but crazy. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
MarioSuperstar posted... The only thing that kinda slaps this theory off are the R/B/Y Pokemon doing well in character battles but you could also argue that they're seen as "joke" options ala L-Block. You could argue that. But you'd be wrong. --- www.wizards.com/mtg/images/daily/arcana/388_final.jpg |
MarioSuperstar posted... The only thing that kinda slaps this theory off are the R/B/Y Pokemon doing well in character battles but you could also argue that they're seen as "joke" options ala L-Block. Pokemon have only gotten stronger in the character battles, I honestly don't think they qualify as joke options. Unless you mean Missingno or something. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Their strength doesn't seem to be transitive, though. Especially Pikachu's. --- "i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745 |
MarioSuperstar posted... Their strength doesn't seem to be transitive, though. Especially Pikachu's. How would we even know this? In terms of how strong the game is, I mean? We haven't had a games contest since 2009, and while I admit that Pokemon does not get as much boost from characters' popularity as other games, it doesn't have far to go to be really good. Random separate thought: given that the vote totals are way down from last year, will we see a resurgence of older games? The logic would be that if 25k out of 40k voters from last contest still vote, there may be a greater percentage of site long-timers among the 25k. And hence a boost to games like Chrono Trigger, which fell off from 2005-2010 as I recall. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
MarioSuperstar posted... It kinda makes sense to me. R/B/Y stood out more when there were less games and less remakes. With the addition of each generation, you're more likely to play more than just R/B/Y, and I feel like many people realize that R/B/Y is not as perfect as everybody realized.. and is really just another Pokemon generation in a long line of generations and remakes. There's still a fairly distinct group of people that have only played R/B/Y and the odds of them trying out one of more recent generations (Gen V and Gen VI) are very unlikely. They won't be persuaded to play the more recent generations, so you're unlikely to find someone who has played Gen I and one other game from Gen V or Gen VI. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
MarioSuperstar posted... I have a personal theory about Pokemon R/B/Y. It involves it getting weaker since 2009. This is just speculation so bear with me. This would imply that RBY voters used any kind of rational logic. Or that they actually played modern Pokemon games. --- Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords. With what? ROT-13? -CJayC |
I
meant the Pokemon characters themselves. They always vary from match to
match. We can see this in Charizard/Pikachu/Mewtwo especially. For example, ain't no way Kratos = Bowser = Mario.... then Charizard loses to Zelda three years later. Mewtwo.. struggles against Midna, beats Sonic/Bowser.. and Pikachu..? I guess? Honestly, all of Pikachu's matches seem to be like a different Pikachu in each one. Even the blowouts. --- "i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745 (edited 10/21/2015 9:14:32 PM)report |
