GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1191
nom nom nom ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- l_l |
Does
anyone know the algorithm as you type in nominations. After an exact
match it seems to favor games with more clicks, it explains things like
why Pokemon Red/Blue is so low after you type Pokemon. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest |
Whoa, we finally need a new topic. --- Leonhart posting from his phone |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5728-all-of-the-other-final-fantasy-games-aside-which-is-better-vi-or-vii This would've been such a good match to see.... ....if there wasn't a remake already announced. --- http://www.backloggery.com/whitelens | http://myanimelist.net/profile/WhiteLens http://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodestone/character/5086952/ |
I'd nominate Final Fantasy VIII if I had played it. Playing Final Fantasy VII makes me NOT want to play FFVIII. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
LinkMarioSamus posted... I'd nominate Final Fantasy VIII if I had played it. Stop saying dumb things. --- Leonhart posting from his phone |
Is this being advertised on the main site or anything? All I see is the nomination topic here. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
We typically learn about nominations a bit before it goes up on the home page. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
Series proxy votes? Perhaps. Here's one possible set of conditions causing rSFF 1 )The stronger game gets more series proxy votes than the weaker games. 2) The weaker game is more well-liked within the series. 3) When both appear in the same poll, the stronger game loses its ability to win proxy votes, allowing the weaker game to close the gap against, if not outright beat, the stronger game. I'm not saying this is how it happens, nor am I saying that rSFF has ever occurred... it's just a theory, and nothing more. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Haste_2 posted...
By "stronger game" do you mean that it's stronger without the proxy votes or because of the proxy votes. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
I mean stronger because of the proxy votes. And, this set of conditions is upposed to satisfy FF1 vs. FF4.... but it of course would not satisfy Mario vs. Samus if rSFF occurred there. It would be closer to the opposite conditions in that match! And that makes rSFF all the more perplexing... --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Is proxy voting even a thing? The only reason I can see to proxy vote is if you didn't play anything in a poll. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
I think there's a significant part of the vote total where people have not played any of the options. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest |
Maybe
"proxy" doesn't describe Final Fantasy's surprising strength. It could
be "nostalgia". The game probably has a mix of the two. Legend of
Zelda and Super Mario Bros. are in similar situations...they're strong,
but not particularly great games. Oh, an I would like to end any speculation about the Battletoads rally causing Final Fantasy to overperform. At 3:00: Battletoads - 19.28% Final Fantasy - 34.02% Prince of Persia - 2.92% (lol) Super Mario World - 43.78% At 24:00 - Battletoads - 13.85% Final Fantasy - 36.76% Prince of Persia - 3.62% Super Mario World - 45.78% The rally was most concentrated in the first couple of hours of the poll. But by the end of the poll, Final Fantasy gained 2.74%, while Super Mario World gained 2%. So much for the rally favoring Final Fantasy.... Comments on other reasons Final Fantasy may have overperformed..... 1)My favorite possibility is the pic factor. We have no good data that really show how strong Final Fantasy is with a not so good picture. But we do know that FInal Fantasy did pretty well against SMB3 and against SMW.... and both times sprites from the game were depicted, including the famous Black Mage. 2)Another possibility mentioned is that Final Fantasy overperformed because Super Mario World was the "obvious" winner, meaning a lot of voters decided to choose the favorite of the weaker three. While I can't utterly refute this, the prediction percentages were split pretty evenly among the bracket=makers....surprisingly even. Therefore, only Board 8 really could have played a factor in the overperformance....though if you look at the early board vote, SMW was destroying FF at the start. 3)What about the whole "platformer leeching" idea making Final Fantasy look stronger? Only 17% of the vote was available to split between the games, so it couldn't have been that big. Maybe 12% would go to SMW and 5% to Final Fantasy.... that still makes it a 58/42 match. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Haste_2 posted... Legend of Zelda and Super Mario Bros. are in similar situations...they're strong, but not particularly great games. Trying to pass off opinion as something objective. That's when you know you don't know what you're talking about. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
Question
for the stats regulars: does the "hardcore"/"casual" split among
Fallout fans hurt the chances of Fallout 3 to make a serious run in the
contest? Or New Vegas, for that matter? I basically said "yes" in the
other topic but on reflection I have no idea whether this is born out in
polls/contests where those two games have been present. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Fallout 3 did well in its last two contests, depending on its bracket placement it could win a few matches. Of course it's no Nintendo game... --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest |
Fallout 3 will do decent. Just don't expect it to beat any of the stronger 90s/00s Japanese titans. --- Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in |
pjbasis posted... Trying to pass off opinion as something objective. That's when you know you don't know what you're talking about. If somebody [says] some things that are inaccurate, it invalidates everything they say. Of course! --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." (edited 9/26/2015 2:59:55 PM)report |
Ignoring heavily rallied games like League of Legends and Dota 2 which non-Nintendo/Square game do you think is the strongest? Skyrim? Resident Evil 4? One of the Metal Gear Solids? --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest |
I would say an MGS game but the SotC run just muddles that up. Skyrim's a good choice to break through the barrier most western games tend to face here, and it might be the right choice here. Dragonborn didn't get all of those nominations for just his look. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
Even outside of SotC the MGS games weren't that impressive, the whole upper mid-carder range is pretty muddled Weren't all of the three seeds given to new characters last contest? Besides it wouldn't be the first time a highly seeded character/game turned out to be weak. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest |
I don't see why FFI would have overperformed against SMW though. We know that SMW ~= SMB3, and we know what SMB3 should get on FF1, because in 2004 they had a common opponent, (I doubt that much changed in the 5 years between contests for those two games), and SMW did do roughly that in its round one match. Based on what we know, there's no reason to think that that match is the anomaly. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! |
I
like the theory about the obvious winner underperforming. I recall
several favorites underperformed in round 1 of that contest, followed by
impressive R2 showings. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I don't think MGS is as popular here as it may have been in the past. Nothing to real back that up now, but I have a feeling. --- satoru iwata |
Yeah, I feel like MGS has lost a step in recent years, but the original is probably still the strongest. --- Leonhart posting from his phone |
Yeah, I think MGS1 would have held up the most. 1 > 3 > 2 >> 4 seems right. MGS5 is probably around 4. --- satoru iwata |
Weren't all of the three seeds given to new characters last contest? The new characters with the most nominations, iirc. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
I dunno if Bacon will go with "themed" seeds like he did with the last Character Battle. No real reason to. --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJxwtAuWwAAbmea.jpg |
the less gimmicks the better. Hopefully SBAllen knows that --- ... |
hey guys what's going on in here for some reason I saw the first post and laughed. it's been the same for like a decade and feels totally obsolete. --- xyzzy |
MGS
will be interesting to see, that's for sure.... yeah, it sounds about
right that it would drop. Do you think other PS1 character like Crash
would fall as well? We know that SMW ~= SMB3, and we know what SMB3 should get on FF1, because in 2004 they had a common opponent, (I doubt that much changed in the 5 years between contests for those two games), and SMW did do roughly that in its round one match. Based on what we know, there's no reason to think that that match is the anomaly. You're probably right. I was just trying to make sense of things if FF4 did not rSFF FF1, though I can't help but think the rSFF existed. Okay, let's have some fun matches.... Final Fantasy VIII vs. Final Fantasy IX? Final Fantasy VI vs. Final Fantasy X? Final Fantasy IV vs. Final Fantasy XII? --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
LeonhartFour posted... I dunno if Bacon will go with "themed" seeds like he did with the last Character Battle. No real reason to. I hope not. Too much fodder 3 and 8 seeds. Also I'm still bitter about the Isaacs being 18 seeds when 18 seed was one of the worst seeds in practice, since they went up against 1 seeds which is a guaranteed loss, and 27 seeds which at least had joke factor. Meanwhile, f***ing 25 seeds got to go against 3 seeds (which were jokes for the most part) and 16 seeds. --- http://i.imgur.com/JGp9Oyg.png |
I don't mind if SB has a little fun with the seeds again as long as it leads to a better contest. Skyrim's my bet for top non-Nintendo/Square game. I agree with the sentiment of the MGS-series losing a step, which I felt began ever since Snake's story ended (even though he was also at his strongest thanks to that and SSBB). I'll take MGS1 over the rest of its series, but Skyrim's gonna be comfortably stronger than the likes of Fallout 3 and Mass Effect 2...it'd be interesting. --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
FF: X > 9 > 8 > 12 I'll take any of them over a FF13-game while we're at it. --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
I think 8>9 --- Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in |
I have faith VIII will still trump IX --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
what's everyone's opinion on Arkham City? --- One of the great innings of all time 175 |
A
lot of us think that the MGS games are less popular now even though
Snake was the only Noble Niner NOT to have shown much of a drop last
contest? Though I will admit I have faith that what happened in GOTD was mostly SOTC turning out to be unexpectedly strong. And MGS4 dropping, which will continue (in some other topics some seriously said they thought it would return to its BGE2009 strength, forget that). MGS3 might have an outside shot at upsetting MGS1. I'd take MGS3 over Skyrim and Fallout 3 at least. MGS3, MGS1, and RE4 are probably all at around the same level, going with MGS1 > MGS3 > RE4 for now. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Outside of Nintendo/Square and rallied games, i think MGS is possibly the strongest, but Skyrim is a good contender too. --- Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man. |
MGS1 > MGS3 >= RE4 > Skyrim THE LIST suggests MGS3 > Skyrim > RE4 > MGS1 though. But I still feel like MGS1 is the strongest of those four. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
charmander6000 posted... I think there's a significant part of the vote total where people have not played any of the options. I only see this happening among voters who have a bracket, because their bracket gives them an incentive to vote in every match. Those without a bracket are probably more likely to not vote in a match if they aren't familiar with either game/character. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Initially posted this in the annoucement topic by mistake: Would anyone else want to just take a break for the holidays and then just resume after the New Year? I'd rather that than have to have 4 matches a day. Honestly, it would probably be less work for Bacon, so if we're cool with it we should probably just suggest it. Unless people think it would make things harder for him, but I can't imagine setting this all up in such a quick time will be easy. I'm not trying to be greedy with Bacon, I honestly think this would be better for him too. We win, he wins, everything works out for the best. Edit: Err...I should probably say, instead of less work for Bacon, the same amount of work, but spread out over a longer period of time. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! (edited 9/27/2015 8:21:23 AM)report |
^^ I fully support this idea... I'm not a fan of 2+ match a day |
I don't really have a preference TBH. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
4 matches a day will definitely test how low the votals can go. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
spooky96 posted... what's everyone's opinion on Arkham City? I'd take it over LoZ:SS in a rematch from 2011's GotY. --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4708- http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5477- http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6013- Allen forgot to include the option for "12-24 hours", which he forgot to include as an option the previous time he did this poll. And for whatever reason, Allen actually included the "12-24 hours" option in the first poll I linked to. The last time we had this poll, the poll had such extreme trends resulting from the lack of a "12-24 hours" option. I will be tracking today's poll to watch the trends play out. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
yeah I'm sure it'll tell us a lot about the upcoming contest --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJxwtAuWwAAbmea.jpg |
