#1 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/9/2015 2:44:22 AM | message detail
"Hey, we may possibly have a contest announced during this topic's existence but probably not" edition.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 1/9/2015 3:47:24 AM | message detail
#3 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/9/2015 10:00:27 PM | message detail
Oh, good. Allen was smart enough to combine both versions of Smash into one option.
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#4 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/9/2015 10:02:42 PM | message detail
Smash Bros.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#5 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 1/9/2015 10:02:50 PM | message detail
Apparently we needed that handicap to make things interesting though.
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#6 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 1/9/2015 10:13:21 PM | message detail
I would how close to second place the 3DS version would have gotten. Also I guess there's no reason to have a final poll. No System of the Year poll is unfortunate, though.
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Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#7 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/9/2015 10:14:11 PM | message detail
Although given how bad Smash Bros. is destroying this poll, there probably wasn't a need to run a 3-way GotY poll. Although I'm still disappointed that we aren't getting a System of the Year poll. With the top 2 games being on Wii U, I'd be interested in seeing where the Wii U currently stands on this site compared to the PS3, PS4, and 3DS.
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#8 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/9/2015 10:17:19 PM | message detail
Smash Bros. 3DS might have gotten second.
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Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#9 | spooky96 | Posted 1/9/2015 10:43:26 PM | message detail
tag
#10 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 1/9/2015 10:47:10 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Smash Bros. 3DS might have gotten second.


it turns out that the answer to this question really doesn't matter in regards to top 2 being Wii U!
#11 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/9/2015 11:00:55 PM | message detail
2004 votes at the end of the first hour. So this poll will finish somewhere between 19000 and 22000 votes. It's still too early to tell if this one is going to break 20000 votes.
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#12 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/10/2015 1:30:24 AM | message detail
I wonder if this site cares about Dark Souls at all.

Then I remembered that Dark Souls was somehow 12th in that recent top 100, while Brawl was 54th and even polls and character battle performances seem to indicate Brawl losing steam on the site. And yet here Smash is beasting the poll again.

I'd blame this on name value, but if Dark Souls is as popular on this site as the top 100 suggests, that shouldn't be the case.

Then again, Chrono Trigger was #1 there and yet all other info we have suggests that CT has been dropping like a rock over the past few years. Who knows?
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#13 | spooky96 | Posted 1/10/2015 3:26:29 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I wonder if this site cares about Dark Souls at all.

Then I remembered that Dark Souls was somehow 12th in that recent top 100, while Brawl was 54th and even polls and character battle performances seem to indicate Brawl losing steam on the site. And yet here Smash is beasting the poll again.

I'd blame this on name value, but if Dark Souls is as popular on this site as the top 100 suggests, that shouldn't be the case.

Then again, Chrono Trigger was #1 there and yet all other info we have suggests that CT has been dropping like a rock over the past few years. Who knows?


I'm sure Dark Souls would be a fairly strong game, but in a contest setting Brawl would have absolutely no problem in beating it. This era has blind love for Pokemon R/B, OoT and Smash games.

Chrono Trigger I think can beat FF X or VI or VII because of how low vote totals have been.The game for me to watch out would be Skyrim, as it has the potential to be the 3rd to 15th strongest game >_>

As more years pass pass, seems like more people appreciate Majora's Mask. I would expect other games like Lttp, TP and WW to be slightly stronger.
#14 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/10/2015 4:01:22 AM | message detail | (edited)
Actually polls and the top 100 indicate that TP has been getting weaker if anything.

Also RBY was only #35 in the top 100, and the highest-ranked Pokemon game was GSC at #28. So that's another place where the top 100 goes against the trends we can infer, as for how Poke-crazy this site seems to be otherwise nothing from that series was in the top 25 somehow.

On the other hand, a certain other Nintendo series that Pokemon has smoked in past polls got two games into the top 20, I am of course referring to Metroid. Although those were the only two Metroid games in the top 100 at all and given the series has had two huge gaps between the release of any games I would not be surprised if the series' strength in a contest setting would still be suspect regardless of how strong Super Metroid, Metroid Prime, and Samus herself are.

Skyrim was 13th on the list in case you're curious.

I'd take FFVI > FFX now. FFVI > FFVII is a risky prospect given FFVII was still #3 in the top 100 (only one spot aghad of VI though), very impressive if I do say so myself. Again that does seem to go a little against the "FFVII is going down" trend we've seen otherwise. Perhaps Squaresoft games just performed well on that list due to the rules, and they're real problem is more lack of playrate than anything else.
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Play Pac-Man World 2.
#15 | Zylothewolf | Posted 1/10/2015 4:03:05 AM | message detail
Aw yeah Bayonetta 2.
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#16 | Safer_777 | Posted 1/10/2015 6:01:11 AM | message detail
That is unfair. Why are 2 different games on 2 different systems count as one?
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#17 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/10/2015 6:28:03 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
That is unfair. Why are 2 different games on 2 different systems count as one?


Probably because they came out around the same time and have the same roster (though I agree with you that they're different enough games to warrant being separate games).

I really wonder how Mario Kart 8 would've done in this field if Smash wasn't in.
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#18 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 1/10/2015 7:50:18 AM | message detail | (edited)
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Actually polls and the top 100 indicate that TP has been getting weaker if anything.

Also RBY was only #35 in the top 100, and the highest-ranked Pokemon game was GSC at #28. So that's another place where the top 100 goes against the trends we can infer, as for how Poke-crazy this site seems to be otherwise nothing from that series was in the top 25 somehow.

On the other hand, a certain other Nintendo series that Pokemon has smoked in past polls got two games into the top 20, I am of course referring to Metroid. Although those were the only two Metroid games in the top 100 at all and given the series has had two huge gaps between the release of any games I would not be surprised if the series' strength in a contest setting would still be suspect regardless of how strong Super Metroid, Metroid Prime, and Samus herself are.

Skyrim was 13th on the list in case you're curious.

I'd take FFVI > FFX now. FFVI > FFVII is a risky prospect given FFVII was still #3 in the top 100 (only one spot aghad of VI though), very impressive if I do say so myself. Again that does seem to go a little against the "FFVII is going down" trend we've seen otherwise. Perhaps Squaresoft games just performed well on that list due to the rules, and they're real problem is more lack of playrate than anything else.


RBY was probably a victim of the format. Pokemon LFF (D/P are the only bad main series Pokemon games), combined with FR/LG being meh remakes while G/S/C got the excellent HG/SS, and most importantly... RBY is a huge game that almost everyone on this site played, but it is really old and glitchy and user-unfriendly nowadays. Not exactly top 5 material, but many people would put it in their top 20.

It's also possible that RBY's strength is more in its characters than the games themselves. I know they did well in 2009, but 2010-2013 was when they really went nuts and those were character battles (+GotD). It makes sense, since the RBY mons have the anime, TCG, and most of the games propping them up, and the trainers at least have RBY, GSC, and maybe the anime.

I don't really trust Final Fantasy X nowadays. Too many people hate that game. The HD rerelease helps, but the new PS4 version and people whining about rehashing might throw that boost away. I'd definitely take VI > X and CT > X. VII is weird and I don't know what to think of it. I think I'd risk the VI and CT upsets, but I wouldn't recommend it.

Then again I'm a contest noob so take all this with a grain of salt.
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#19 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/10/2015 8:42:46 AM | message detail | (edited)
But but FFX was #10 in that list!

I also just remember that Persona 4 made the top 20 despite having proven itself to be fodder in two contests. Wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the re-release made a difference...oh wait that was on PS Vita, whoops.

Lol Sony can't make good handhelds.

EDIT: While it's highly unlikely that P4 is *that* strong, it has gotten a lot more exposure in the past few years no? So it's probably fodderline at absolutely worst.
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#20 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/10/2015 8:43:31 AM | message detail
Wait someone seriously thinks Wind Waker would beat Majora's Mask after GOTD? Ugh.
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Play Pac-Man World 2.
#21 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 1/10/2015 9:10:55 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I wonder if this site cares about Dark Souls at all.

Then I remembered that Dark Souls was somehow 12th in that recent top 100, while Brawl was 54th and even polls and character battle performances seem to indicate Brawl losing steam on the site. And yet here Smash is beasting the poll again.

I'd blame this on name value, but if Dark Souls is as popular on this site as the top 100 suggests, that shouldn't be the case.

Then again, Chrono Trigger was #1 there and yet all other info we have suggests that CT has been dropping like a rock over the past few years. Who knows?


isn't Dark Souls 2 considered worse than the original

that's your answer
#22 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/10/2015 11:00:19 AM | message detail
If anything, I'd be somewhat tempted to take X over VII in a games contest at this point.
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#23 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/10/2015 11:15:27 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I wonder if this site cares about Dark Souls at all.

Then I remembered that Dark Souls was somehow 12th in that recent top 100, while Brawl was 54th and even polls and character battle performances seem to indicate Brawl losing steam on the site. And yet here Smash is beasting the poll again.

I'd blame this on name value, but if Dark Souls is as popular on this site as the top 100 suggests, that shouldn't be the case.

Then again, Chrono Trigger was #1 there and yet all other info we have suggests that CT has been dropping like a rock over the past few years. Who knows?


isn't Dark Souls 2 considered worse than the original

that's your answer


Sure maybe it is, doesn't stop it from being considered one of the best games this year.
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#24 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 1/10/2015 11:33:46 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I wonder if this site cares about Dark Souls at all.

Then I remembered that Dark Souls was somehow 12th in that recent top 100, while Brawl was 54th and even polls and character battle performances seem to indicate Brawl losing steam on the site. And yet here Smash is beasting the poll again.

I'd blame this on name value, but if Dark Souls is as popular on this site as the top 100 suggests, that shouldn't be the case.

Then again, Chrono Trigger was #1 there and yet all other info we have suggests that CT has been dropping like a rock over the past few years. Who knows?


isn't Dark Souls 2 considered worse than the original

that's your answer


Sure maybe it is, doesn't stop it from being considered one of the best games this year.


two things
1. games like Dark Souls fare much better in the top 100 because they have a dedicated but smaller fanbase (basically the inverse of RBY)
2. Dark Souls 2 being considered a disappointment definitely matters, even on a site like GAF where half the members think Dark Souls is the best thing ever, Dark Souls 2 isn't even gonna crack top 4 for the year
#25 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/10/2015 2:39:59 PM | message detail
Okay watchmojo.com picked DS2 for GOTY, so I was assuming.
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#26 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/11/2015 2:37:57 AM | message detail
In the overall GotY poll, Dragon Age: Inquisition just barely manages to avoid being doubled by Smash Bros. In fact, if both versions were separate options in this poll, they would have to split the votes almost 50/50 just for Dragon Age: Inquisition to win the GotY poll. Which would be almost impossible, as one version of the game would have done well enough to avoid losing the GotY poll.

This year's GotY poll just barely surpassed 21000 votes. If there had been a 3-way GotY poll, that one might have gotten around 24000-25000 votes based on the increase in vote totals going from the 10-way poll to the 3-way poll.
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#27 | Safer_777 | Posted 1/11/2015 5:45:32 AM | message detail
I am still suprised that core Nintendo games dominate so much.
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#28 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/11/2015 11:18:11 AM | message detail
For no reason I feel like asking if SOTC's strength from GOTD would be expected to stay.

Going by the top 100 the answer is that SOTC might be a bit weaker.
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#29 | abdou | Posted 1/11/2015 10:14:33 PM | message detail
Zelda winning, of course....there are so many better series on that list </opinion>
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#30 | swordz9 | Posted 1/11/2015 10:19:35 PM | message detail
Disappointed at the lack of Persona 5 in the poll
#31 | 2Dover3D | Posted 1/11/2015 10:39:14 PM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
Disappointed at the lack of Persona 5 in the poll


Yeah, thats an easy #1 for me. I went for Tales since its not there.
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#32 | LeonhartFour | Posted 1/11/2015 11:07:24 PM | message detail
Probably would've voted for Phantom Pain regardless because we at least have a lot of info on it. Hard to get hyped about Persona 5 off of one trailer that didn't show or tell us much of anything.
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#33 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/12/2015 1:57:32 AM | message detail
abdou posted...
Zelda winning, of course....there are so many better series on that list </opinion>


Methinks Zelda would be winning by a lot more in this site's heyday.
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#34 | Safer_777 | Posted 1/12/2015 2:42:21 AM | message detail
Nintendofaqs what you expect? Anyway KH 3 is second at least.
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#35 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/12/2015 2:52:45 AM | message detail
Because Kingdom Hearts doing well is SO much better than Zelda doing well, personal tastes aside.
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#36 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/12/2015 7:12:45 AM | message detail
KH III doing well in today's poll is definitely quite unexpected. Considering how long it has been since the last console KH, that this site would just lose any hope of ever getting another console KH ever again.

As for what this means for Sora, it's possible that KH III could replenish some of the strength that Sora has lost over the past several years. I don't think it will take him back to his 2006 level, though.
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#37 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/12/2015 7:17:54 AM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts 3 was almost on Half-Life 3 levels of most wanted sequels before it was announced.
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#38 | swordz9 | Posted 1/12/2015 7:25:59 AM | message detail
FF really seems to be on the decline on this site. Never thought FFX HD would lose to KH2.5HD. I'm not surprised to see KH3 doing well since people have wanted it for a while. More people might be growing tired of FFXV taking forever to come out. This is like year 9 since it was announced.
#39 | swirIdude | Posted 1/12/2015 8:10:27 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy has lost much of its relevance since the PS2 era, while Kingdom Hearts was born on the PS2 and has expanded since then. It makes sense.
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#40 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 1/12/2015 8:39:03 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
abdou posted...
Zelda winning, of course....there are so many better series on that list </opinion>


Methinks Zelda would be winning by a lot more in this site's heyday.


would it though? Final Fantasy would be significantly stronger
#41 | abdou | Posted 1/12/2015 10:34:11 PM | message detail
Zelda winning (again)

also it's sad we have so many 'remasters' that we get a poll like this...
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#42 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/13/2015 12:33:00 AM | message detail
Yesterday's poll did very well in vote totals, managing to get over 27000 votes. The original title poll got really bad vote totals (although this is normal for that poll). And it looks like the upcoming remake/remaster poll will end up getting slightly higher vote totals than the original title poll.

Today's poll had 2036 votes at the end of the first hour, putting it on track for 19000 to 22000 votes. Definitely better than the original title poll, but well behind the upcoming sequel poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#43 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 1/14/2015 11:21:21 AM | message detail | (edited)
When is the contest, i can't wait for Zelda dominance, baby. 5 or 6 Zelda games making into the top 15 would be so sweet.

/sarcasm
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#44 | pjbasis | Posted 1/14/2015 11:22:25 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
Never thought FFX HD would lose to KH2.5HD


I'm not really surprised.

The KH fanbase is a lot more hardcore, plus these Final Mix editions are definitely a bigger deal in the community than the International versions.

Then you have Birth By Sleep being playable for the first time on consoles, versus X-2 which...is not very popular.
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#45 | swordz9 | Posted 1/15/2015 12:03:03 PM | message detail
This poll could really use a "maybe when it has more exclusives" or something else along those lines, but it's not surprising to see most people satisfied with their current model or not wanting one at all.
#46 | pjbasis | Posted 1/15/2015 12:23:34 PM | message detail
Why put the non-XL option when there are currently no announcements for it
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#47 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/15/2015 3:02:42 PM | message detail | (edited)
It's available in non-NA regions.
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#48 | pjbasis | Posted 1/15/2015 3:09:27 PM | message detail
Oh I thought it was just exclusive to Japan
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#49 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 1/16/2015 9:06:51 PM | message detail
Bump
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#50 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/17/2015 12:24:18 AM | message detail | (edited)
pjbasis posted...
Why put the non-XL option when there are currently no announcements for it


The funny thing is that the non-XL option has a US and Canada percentage only slightly lower than the worldwide average despite the non-XL version being unavailable in those 2 countries. I didn't track poll updates for that poll, but it seems like there weren't any noticeable trends in the New 3DS poll (based on the poll graphs) despite the non-XL version of the New 3DS being unavailable in North America.
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