Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1187

#401 | swirIdude | Posted 9/19/2014 12:32:22 PM | message detail
Or he'll just have a LoL sub-bracket so they can all fight each other while the real contest occurs otherwise.

And then they can have their token LoL > Link final.
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#402 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/19/2014 1:17:00 PM | message detail
Come on. We all know that this board will care much more about the Link/Draven final than the LoL subreddit will.

I would also laugh my head off if Allen makes the match 23 hours from the start, for old-times sake.
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#403 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/19/2014 2:06:49 PM | message detail
Bacon said at the end of last contest that his next contest idea probably would not lend itself so easily to rallies like Draven's. That was a year ago though so who knows if that's still valid.
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#404 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/19/2014 3:03:57 PM | message detail
giant LoL sub-bracket so all the LoL voters hate each other by the time they face Link

j/k
#405 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/19/2014 3:08:10 PM | message detail
Tournament of Champions with Draven vs. Link or Snake in Round 1. Draven needs at least some time to gain momentum.
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#406 | abdou | Posted 9/19/2014 3:29:00 PM | message detail
Or ban all LoL characters/game.
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#407 | foxhead84 | Posted 9/19/2014 7:33:45 PM | message detail
^^Yeah this...

Even if it get enough nomination. Nothing oblige Bacon to include it in the bracket
#408 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/20/2014 3:56:23 AM | message detail
Neat to see FF14 close to WoW. It's one of the few MMORPGs to really stand out and impress the last few years.

Too bad it'd bomb in a contest setting.
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#409 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/21/2014 2:23:27 PM | message detail
And FFXIV ended up defeating WoW in yesterday's poll. In a contest setting, I'm not sure which one would win in a direct match. WoW has the advantage of being a much better known MMORPG than FFXIV. But FFXIV has the Final Fantasy name to rely on.
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#410 | spooky96 | Posted 9/21/2014 8:16:12 PM | message detail | (edited)
Who'd you pick to win? Charizard vs Sonic?
#411 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/21/2014 10:04:52 PM | message detail
Strange, today's poll has very bad vote totals at the 1 hour mark so far. With 2049 votes at the end of the first hour, this poll could be in the running to finish with under 20000 votes, but I don't think it's going to happen. I wasn't expecting these awful vote totals for today's poll.
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#412 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/21/2014 10:07:29 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Who'd you pick to win? Charizard vs Sonic?


Who would I pick? Sonic, out of principle. Charizard would have a good shot to win, obviously.
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#413 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/22/2014 2:09:41 AM | message detail
Sonic. Charizard is weird as hell but I think his glory days are behind him.
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#414 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2014 9:05:54 PM | message detail
Well, yesterday's poll finished under 20000 votes. Out of any possible non-GotY poll that could have finished under 20000 votes, yesterday's poll came out of left field to accomplish the feat. I couldn't find any reason why yesterday's poll got the awful vote totals and I never saw anyone complaining about the poll forgetting to include an important option.

I was hoping yesterday's poll got off to a slow start in vote totals at the beginning of the poll, but that did not appear to be the case with this poll.
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#415 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/23/2014 1:04:31 PM | message detail
^ I'm crying as I read this.
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#416 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/23/2014 6:30:44 PM | message detail
I know the stats probably say Charizard, and so does my personal bias, but for some reason I'm feeling a Sonic win in that one.
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#417 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/23/2014 6:45:38 PM | message detail
I don't trust Charizard very much after last contest.
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#418 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/23/2014 9:07:27 PM | message detail
It took until vote 221 for the last poll option to get its first vote in today's poll. I thought the last poll option was overkill and should have been eliminated in favor of renaming "Betweeen 501 and 1000" to "More than 500".
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#419 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/24/2014 12:48:39 AM | message detail
Charizard was a trap to begin with. For some reason, people expected Bowser-beating and Mario-threatening Zard rather than the one that couldn't break 55% on Kratos.

Mega Man > Charizard was my favorite pick from last contest due to most people overestimating the guy. That he ended up choking so bad after an entire contest of Pokemon domination is the icing on the cake.
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#420 | spooky96 | Posted 9/24/2014 9:35:14 AM | message detail | (edited)
Not considering random absurd rallies, so who'll have the best shot at beating any of the N9? Sonic, Crono, Sephiroth and Cloud are sort of..eh unreliable... >_>

Pokehmon? But they're unreliable too <_<
#421 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/24/2014 9:31:03 AM | message detail
Mewtwo, Pikachu, Squirtle, Red, and maybe Blue.
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#422 | Magmortar75 | Posted 9/24/2014 9:53:11 AM | message detail | (edited)
Luigi I'd definitely take over Crono and think about him over Sephiroth. Mega Man X I'd think about for both. Most of the upper Final Fantasy characters (Tifa, Auron, Squall etc.) and maybe Big Boss could give Crono a fight. Cloud and Sonic I'm not 100% certain on taking anyone over yet.

That's about it aside from Pokemon.
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#423 | Xeybozn | Posted 9/24/2014 9:59:44 AM | message detail
Pokeymanz, duh.

But other than that I could see Crono and/or Sephiroth having trouble with the high-tier Nintendo guys. So if we're ignoring Pokemon and rally things, I guess Luigi would probably have the best shot at a N9 win these days, with Bowser and Kirby having good chances too.

While we're on the subject of Pokemon, I have to ask whether you guys think there's any real difference in strength for the big Pokemon. Personally I don't think there's any real difference between Pikachu/Charizard/Mewtwo/Squirtle (and probably a few other RBY guys), but seeing how everybody always specifies which one is in hypothetical match-ups I just have to see if it matters to anyone else.
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#424 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/24/2014 10:13:50 AM | message detail
Out of those 4, I'd consider Mewtwo a bit stronger and Charizard much more prone to anti-votes.
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#425 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/24/2014 10:31:16 AM | message detail
Mewtwo's probably the strongest, but I'd rather see him in one more contest before I'd say so for sure since he had a pretty wonky path. I think Pikachu's less prone to wild strength swings like the other Pokemon, mainly due to being the mascot and the most recognizable of the series. Charizard's decently strong though I think his sheer popularity back in the RBY era hurts him a bit now, while with Squirtle I really don't want to make a guess yet because who the hell knows.

As for who could beat the N9? I think it's actually less likely now than, say, 2010. The old Square boost seemed to have at least slowed Crono's descent (though he should still be scared of Pokemon), and Sonic's rebounded enough from his lows to be somewhat safe from major upsets. But the low votals will make wonky stuff happen even without rallies, so who knows what'll happen.

I also completely forgot Missingno was in the last contest and had a close match with Tidus. Tidus hasn't actually won a Round 1 match since 2005, either.
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#426 | pjbasis | Posted 9/24/2014 11:19:19 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Not considering random absurd rallies,


I guess Pokemon is out then
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#427 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/24/2014 12:41:21 PM | message detail
Who knows. We haven't had a legitimate contest in 4 years.
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#428 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/24/2014 5:39:58 PM | message detail
I'd go with Mega Man X, various Pokemon, and maybe Big Boss after Metal Gear Solid 5 comes out to pull an upset on Crono/Sonic/Sephiroth.

Luigi looked slightly stronger than Big Boss last contest but Big Boss wasn't really close to Sephiroth, so I doubt Luigi could pull that one off. Luigi might be close to Crono and Sonic - Link/Luigi and Link/Sonic 2010 supports it - but I'd be wary of Mario/Sonic SFF dynamics in the latter match. Sonic 60/40ed Luigi back in 2006.

Zelda's near-upset of Charizard is good I guess? Still wouldn't trust her to beat a Noble Niner.

Ganondorf only got 42.82% on Sonic in 2010. The night match and the pig picture both hurt him but it would be a stretch for him to turn that into a win. There's also him losing to Vincent who lost to Sonic in 2006, the year Twilight Princess came out. Sonic is probably weaker now, but I'd expect Ganondorf to be weaker too.

2006 Bowser only got 42.56% on Crono the year the latter lost to Sonic. Crono certainly hasn't declined that badly. I guess Bowser "only" needs 64% of Mewtwo's votes in Sonic/Mewtwo/Bowser to beat Sonic but given that Sonic is almost Nintendo himself, good luck with that.

When Kirby can't abuse a weird format he has just not been that strong. Doesn't help that Sephiroth pulled 53% on him last contest despite all of Kirby's advantages that match and Sonic got almost 55% in 2010. Kirby > Crono would suggest Kirby has greater natural strength than Pikachu; I'm guessing that isn't the case.

It's hard to know how seriously to take the performances of the Square near-elites last contest but I think at least Vincent and Sora are pretty much out.of contention. Not sure what to make of Squall.

Auron's mediocre performance last contest aside, he probably doesn't quite have the raw strength to take Crono, though he might get close; he got 45.5% on Crono in 2006. His KHII boost might be gone now, too. Guess you could hope for an FFXHD boost?

Tifa has given us some really weird matches over the years that looked great for her, so she has an argument. I definitely wouldn't take her to pull it off, though.
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#429 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/24/2014 6:26:43 PM | message detail
tl;dr who the hell knows these days
#430 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/25/2014 5:08:32 AM | message detail | (edited)
The ones that i could see upsetting weaker N9 (Cloud, Sephiroth, Sonic and Crono)

- Pokemon (Pikachu, Mewtwo and Squirtle)

- Big Boss (after MGS5 boost)

- Luigi and MMX
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#431 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/25/2014 1:25:35 PM | message detail
Here's an interesting question: Who do you think is the strongest SE character now after Cloud/Sephiroth/Crono?
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#432 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/25/2014 1:28:21 PM | message detail
Maybe Tifa. She doesn't seem to be as big of an anti-vote magnet as a lot of the others, and is stronger than some people give her credit for.
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#433 | pjbasis | Posted 9/25/2014 1:30:57 PM | message detail
#434 | Magmortar75 | Posted 9/25/2014 8:22:37 PM | message detail
Tifa is probably the strongest one indirectly. I think Squall beats her in a match but that's close.
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#435 | -Zelmor- | Posted 9/26/2014 1:37:54 PM | message detail | (edited)
Probably Tifa.

Pretty evident that JRPG bishonens are on a massive decline - Cloud, Sephy, Vincent, Sora, Zack, Riku, Squall

Only the FF gals are somehow immune to it. - Yuna, Tifa, Aeris, Rikku
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#436 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/26/2014 1:39:06 PM | message detail
Aerith has declined plenty. Wouldn't have lost to Shepard otherwise.
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#437 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/26/2014 5:51:14 PM | message detail
Don't discount Shepard's strength, he avoided being quadrupled by Draven after all!
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#438 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/27/2014 4:30:44 PM | message detail
Here is how today's poll compares to the Brawl poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5645-
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3045-

For reference, both polls were hosted exactly 6 days prior to their respective release dates. In the Brawl poll, only about 29% had no interest in buying the game. In today's poll, about 40% has no interest in getting the next Smash game.

Compared to Brawl, the hype for the next Smash game is way down, perhaps because of the fact it's on Wii U. If it wasn't for the 3DS version, the percentage of the site that is interested in the next Smash could have been even higher than 40%
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#439 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/27/2014 4:31:16 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Don't discount Shepard's strength, he avoided being quadrupled by Draven after all!


This is true. Shepard did a lot better than I thought he would!
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#440 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/27/2014 10:53:44 PM | message detail
Yesterday's poll came fairly close to a 4-way tie, with the vote difference between the 2nd place option and the 5th place option being less than 100 votes. And there was just a 36 vote difference between the 2nd place and 4th place options.
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#441 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/28/2014 9:06:15 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#442 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/28/2014 9:07:14 PM | message detail
So we reached the freeze in today's poll and "Graphics/Sound - I want my games to look and sound as real as possible" still has 0 votes. It doesn't happen very often, though.
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#443 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/29/2014 1:47:03 AM | message detail
I gotta say, Graphics/Sounds doing this horrible is pretty damn hilarious.
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#444 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/29/2014 2:11:22 AM | message detail
It's probably the wording that made it hilariously bad instead of just really bad. If art style, atmosphere, music, etc. are important to you but you don't care for "realistic" graphics, you're probably not gonna vote for that option.
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#445 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/29/2014 4:51:19 AM | message detail
Yeah taking all that into account the "technical" aspects are probably what's most important to me aside from gameplay.
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#446 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/29/2014 9:02:33 PM | message detail
"Other than Smash Bros., which scheduled October release are you most looking forward to?"

Has a game every been intentionally excluded for a poll like this before?
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#447 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/29/2014 9:03:21 PM | message detail
This is certainly the first time I've seen this happen for these types of polls.
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#448 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/30/2014 2:08:25 AM | message detail | (edited)
Could have sworn I saw a poll like that before, assuming it involved Brawl no less, but can't find it in search.

e: Found it: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3043-which-other-scheduled-march-release-are-you-most-looking-forward-to
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#449 | Big Bob | Posted 9/30/2014 1:12:28 PM | message detail
Hah, I remember that. Is he going to exclude the Wii U release, too?
#450 | swirIdude | Posted 9/30/2014 1:24:22 PM | message detail
Certainly seems that way.
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