Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1187

#301 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/29/2014 10:43:00 PM | message detail
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#302 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/30/2014 8:40:51 AM | message detail
What?
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#303 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/30/2014 9:24:00 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Probably.
But Chrono Trigger is another story!


With CT's decline...oh wait CT topped that list? Um...
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#304 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/30/2014 10:41:26 AM | message detail
While Crono took a big hit in 2005 and 2006, I don't think there's much evidence for notable Crono decline after that. He was already pretty close to Vincent and Squall in the stats in 2006 and then went near-even with Vincent twice in the four-ways. Running into 2010 Missingno. and 2013 Pikachu was unfortunate but I wouldn't hold a loss to either against him considering what those characters did those contests.

Crono vs. Sephiroth, who do people take at this point?

If Frog can get 36% on Cloud, I think Crono certainly has a shot at Sephy
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#305 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2014 10:44:35 AM | message detail
Crono's got a shot. After all, Sephy only got 53% on Kirby and 57% on Big Boss. The low vote totals and rallying make virtually any non-Link upset possible now.
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#306 | LOLContests | Posted 8/30/2014 11:16:23 AM | message detail | (edited)
AxemRedRanger posted...
While Crono took a big hit in 2005 and 2006, I don't think there's much evidence for notable Crono decline after that. He was already pretty close to Vincent and Squall in the stats in 2006 and then went near-even with Vincent twice in the four-ways. Running into 2010 Missingno. and 2013 Pikachu was unfortunate but I wouldn't hold a loss to either against him considering what those characters did those contests.

Crono vs. Sephiroth, who do people take at this point?

If Frog can get 36% on Cloud, I think Crono certainly has a shot at Sephy


I would actually say that 2007 and 2010 were Crono declines as well. I wouldn't really list 2005 as one though. He looked just as good as in 2004 to me. I know that in 2007 he didn't look that different vis a vis Vincent, but I think Vincent dropped a bit between those two years as well.

Would probably take Sephiorth over Crono. Sephy is definitely more popular than Crono indirectly, and while there's always the specter of anti-votes to be aware of, Kirby couldn't pull it off, and he seems more likely to take advantage of those anti-votes than Crono would. Crono's probably a little stronger, but we've seen FFVII anti-votes collapse against anything that it has overlap with in the past, so I doubt it.

Edit: Err..thinking about that Cloud/Frog match that we just saw does invalidate my last point, but I stand by the claim that Kirby is a better beneficiary of anti-votes than Crono would be.
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#307 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2014 11:15:47 AM | message detail
Yeah, I wouldn't say Crono declined between 2004 and 2005. The difference between the two matches with Mario was pretty much all Mario there, I think. I mean, he might have dropped, but if he did, it was pretty negligible.
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#308 | pjbasis | Posted 8/30/2014 11:24:18 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Crono's got a shot. After all, Sephy only got 53% on Kirby and 57% on Big Boss. The low vote totals and rallying make virtually any non-Link upset possible now.


That's funny because Link got upset
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#309 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2014 11:25:02 AM | message detail
Draven winning wasn't an upset by the time it happened...!
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#310 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/30/2014 1:09:25 PM | message detail
I don't take Kirby's number against Sephiroth very seriously. We'd seen this before; Kirby went nuts in 2008 as well when put up against FFVII and Metal Gear. (I do wonder if some other Nintendo midcarders could pull a Kirby if given a Metal Gear and 3D FF split; Luigi, Zelda, Ganondorf, Bowser, and Yoshi never got that kind of opportunity in 2007/2008/2013. Sonic did manage to barely beat Squall in Snake/Squall/L-block/Sonic in 2007, which is something after how poor he looked earlier that contest.) If anything, Big Boss's number should be what worries Sephiroth supporters, especially since he did that with most of the anti-votes going to Kirby.

I guess that's true about Crono 2005. Seems like the vast majority of Crono's decline took place within the span of a single year. At worst, I certainly don't think Crono has gotten weaker since 2010 or is still getting weaker, with what we saw out of Frog and Kefka last contest.
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#311 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/30/2014 8:56:31 PM | message detail
I would still take 2013 Sephiroth over Crono, but who knows what would happen in 2015 or 2016. FF7 is declining at an alarming rate, by that time, even Crono might give Cloud a run for his money.
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#312 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/30/2014 10:42:12 PM | message detail
Hyrule Warriors haha
#313 | pjbasis | Posted 8/31/2014 2:21:28 PM | message detail
#314 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/31/2014 3:15:39 PM | message detail
Indeed, it it amazing that an upcoming Zelda spinoff could almost lose to a first-person-shooter from a new IP.
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#315 | abdou | Posted 8/31/2014 3:45:44 PM | message detail
it's just a typical Dynasty Warriors clone with Zelda skin. It will be boring and repetitive.
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#316 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/31/2014 3:59:59 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Indeed, it it amazing that an upcoming Zelda spinoff could almost lose to a first-person-shooter from a new IP.


Hyrule Warriors has really collapsed during the day vote in this poll, but it got off to such a hot start with a strong board vote and Power Hour that it was in no danger to lose this poll. Destiny on the other hand is showing off a very strong day vote, although it's just not enough to really threaten Hyrule Warriors.
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#317 | spooky96 | Posted 9/1/2014 9:15:40 AM | message detail
I don't know why we're discussing about these contests...I mean Allen doesn't give a s*** about contests and we're waiting at least till around 2015.

But Sephy vs Crono would be definitely interesting. Just because of the contest history and recent Square trends, I'd still simply pick Sephy to win.
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#318 | spooky96 | Posted 9/1/2014 9:27:40 AM | message detail
Oh wait, Sephy horribly lost to Mewtwo. But I don't know, any match involving Draven wasn't normal.
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#319 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/1/2014 3:05:56 PM | message detail
I don't think I'd pick Crono to even get second against Kirby and Big Boss, let alone win that match.
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#320 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/2/2014 7:45:25 AM | message detail
We're discussing Crono > Sephiroth now? EXCELLENT. I've been planning this day since 2004!
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#321 | pjbasis | Posted 9/2/2014 8:58:43 AM | message detail
The sane among us dismiss it rather quickly
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#322 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/2/2014 11:51:29 AM | message detail
GameFAQs has rightfully realized that Crono is not all that great a character.
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#323 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/2/2014 12:52:15 PM | message detail
You think Kirby and Big Boss are worth 47% on Mario (what Crono got heads up)? Or that contests are super non-linear these days. I suppose it's possible that contests are super super non-linear these days. But probably not that much.
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#324 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/2/2014 12:54:59 PM | message detail
I'd say......Crono boosted in 2004. Then declined a little in 2005. Declined a little more in 2006. Declined a fair amount in 2007. Boosted in 2008. Maybe declined a little in 2010 again but it's hard to get a good read. His 2013 showing against Mario was pretty good but by now it's pretty much impossible to gauge where characters are anymore.
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#325 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/2/2014 1:32:29 PM | message detail
It's hard to extrapolate anything when rallying can have such a significant effect with low vote totals.
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#326 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/2/2014 1:33:03 PM | message detail
And Vincent declined in 2008 rather than Crono boosting. FFVII in general dropped a bit that year.
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#327 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/2/2014 6:08:54 PM | message detail
Possible FFVII already started declining that year, but Cloud still got 56%+ on a Snake with MGS4 and SSBB behind him. It's hard to believe it was 6 years ago. FFVII's ASV was still pretty solid in 2008, though possibly slightly weaker than in previous years. Cloud barely declined with the ASV against Midna, Mewtwo, and a last place Pacman which is pretty good. Vincent basically held even from 15:00 to 24:00 against Samus, Ganondorf, and Gordon also, so I'm not sure FFVII's day vote declined at all in 2008 even. Probably a very small amount.
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#328 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/3/2014 12:24:32 AM | message detail | (edited)
It's kinda sad that Sephiroth getting 53% on Kirby actually seems impressive in retrospect. Hell, Vincent couldn't break 60% on KOS-MOS, and that's with a recognizable pic.

e: Mewtwo got 63.18% on Vincent and 58.03% on Sephiroth, meaning Vincent gets 45.92% on Sephiroth. Vincent only got 37.34% on Sephiroth in 2010, so it's clear Vincent's "bad" pic actually boosted him. (This is a joke because I know someone will actually take this seriously)
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#329 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/3/2014 2:38:16 AM | message detail
Well, that's assuming Mewtwo was consistent between rounds, which I kinda doubt.
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#330 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/3/2014 9:21:49 AM | message detail
All these talks about Crono being impressive and yet he's the one that has lost almost all of his debatable matches since 2004. (save Crono vs Vincent in 2008 and he only won due to last minute rallying)

I wouldn't even take Crono over Bowser, Ganondorf or Big Boss, let alone Sephiroth.
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#331 | Xeybozn | Posted 9/3/2014 9:59:07 AM | message detail
I just looked up Mewtwo's matches last contest and noticed that Sonic did better on him than Sephiroth did (~45% for Sonic vs. ~42% for Seph). Could Sonic beat Sephiroth now or was Mewtwo's rally that much bigger in the Draven/Seph match?
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#332 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/3/2014 10:01:24 AM | message detail
I wouldn't take any match involving Draven seriously.
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#333 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/3/2014 10:28:44 AM | message detail
I wouldn't take any match from the last contest seriously.
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#334 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/3/2014 11:04:48 AM | message detail | (edited)
The only match that i would take seriously is the 1vs1 bonus poll where Snake managed 47% on Link.

But even then, you could argue that Link was stronger than his usual self in that bonus match. (Link had already lost the contest, no reason to anti-vote him, in a normal contest setting, Snake might be worth more than 47% on him)
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#335 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/3/2014 3:08:29 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I wouldn't take any match from the last contest seriously.


Now now, I wouldn't go that far. The only matches I don't trust are the SFF/LFF matches or matches that were tainted by a rally or bandwagon.
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#336 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/3/2014 3:11:02 PM | message detail
Which is...pretty much all the matches that matter.

I guess we can consider something like Big Boss/Viridian/Peacock as a relevant match, but yeah.
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#337 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2014 3:57:59 PM | message detail
The first round was probably accurate, minus SFF/LFF
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#338 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/3/2014 10:29:58 PM | message detail
Mario/Crono so legit.
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#339 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/4/2014 1:51:02 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Well, that's assuming Mewtwo was consistent between rounds, which I kinda doubt.


Not_Wylvane posted...
(This is a joke because I know someone will actually take this seriously)


Xeybozn posted...
I just looked up Mewtwo's matches last contest and noticed that Sonic did better on him than Sephiroth did (~45% for Sonic vs. ~42% for Seph). Could Sonic beat Sephiroth now or was Mewtwo's rally that much bigger in the Draven/Seph match?


It's possible. Kirby did better on Sephiroth in 2013 than on Sonic in 2010, though it's a small enough gap that possible Big Boss LFF might account for it. I think that could actually be a good match-up for both of them, especially with Sephiroth likely still declining and Sonic being a bit hard to pin down at times.

I'd also love to see Mega Man/Sephiroth again since it could very well end up like their 2002 match.
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#340 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/4/2014 5:57:06 AM | message detail | (edited)
I'm surprised that Sonic didn't boost at all between contests considering his series had basically been rescued from the garbage can in the meantime. Then again, the same happened for Scorpion and Sub-Zero and they didn't boost either. And Samus still looked fine despite that game with a joke name coming out between contests and destroying the franchise's popularity (admittedly putting only 56% on a third-rate FFVII character wasn't good, she may have held off Mega Man only due to mitigating his SSB boost in similar fashion to what she did to Snake in 2006, and she completely collapsed in the final). Almost makes you feel like GameFAQs didn't care jack squat for anything that came out between contests.

But then Dante still bombed...though that may be more a testament to PokeFAQs rather than an indictment on his own strength. Yeesh.

EDIT: To be fair, regarding Samus, she may have received a permanent boost in 2010 somehow. It's telling that Metroid Prime lost in the first round in Best Game Ever 2, yet made it to the quarterfinals of Game of the Decade (with x-stats showing that it would get 66% on the game it narrowly lost to in BGE2) and placed in the top 15 in that recent top 100. I also feel like I heard more people badmouthing Metroid Prime in 2010 and earlier compared to since, though that could just be GameCube nostalgia since the same has happened to pretty much every other major game on the GameCube (see: Wind Waker).
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#341 | swirIdude | Posted 9/4/2014 12:13:55 PM | message detail
Sonic beating Sephiroth is the kind of result that makes me want a contest.
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#342 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/4/2014 12:49:05 PM | message detail
No thank you, don't want to see FFVII characters embarrass themselves again when they used to do so well.

This site has always been super-biased towards a few different franchises and companies anyway. The only reason it isn't as bad as it could be is because I'm a huge Zelda/FF fan. And anyway, I think the idea of character contests is pretty stupid in hindsight because, well, put it this way, I'm generally not big on the actual characters in video games (and probably ANY work of fiction) compared to every other aspect of them, and it's pretty clear that most voters think the same way. I'm rather surprised we managed to keep them going with the same few characters doing well in most of them, and Best Game Ever 2 exposing the site's fanboy-driven nature for all it's worth (like seriously, Resident Evil 4 losing to Brawl, Twilight Princess, and Metal Gear Solid 4, really?).

Wow I just realized that Brawl, TP, and MGS4, despite making the quarterfinals of that contest, all failed to make the top 50 in the recent top 100 (heck, TP barely placed and MGS4 completely failed to place), while three games that lost in the first round were in the top 20. I'm speechless.
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#343 | abdou | Posted 9/5/2014 12:21:32 PM | message detail
Community Manager finally hired. Hopefully now we can get a contest going soon.
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#344 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/6/2014 8:14:52 PM | message detail
Bump
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#345 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/6/2014 9:00:43 PM | message detail
Leon is going to like this poll. We have an FFVIII poll today.
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#346 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/6/2014 9:12:23 PM | message detail
It's two days too early though. Shame on you, Bacon. 9/7 is FFVII's release date. 9/9 is FFVIII's release date.
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#347 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/6/2014 9:14:36 PM | message detail
GameFAQs has 9/7 listed as FFVIII's release date, so blame the incorrect entry on the site for Bacon running this poll 2 days early.

I also realized that this will be our first ever playrate poll for FFVIII.
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#348 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/6/2014 9:28:23 PM | message detail
I had suggested an FFVIII poll for today about a week ago based on the site's listed release date but was rejected. Bacon might have already had one planned; the answer choices are pretty different.

Other upcoming anniversaries:

9/13 Super Mario Bros. 29 years
9/16 Kingdom Hearts (U.S.) 12 years
9/22 Final Fantasy XIV 4 years
9/26 Super Mario 64 (U.S.) 18 years
9/30 Pokemon Red/Blue (U.S.) 16 years

Not gonna bother with SMB1 this month since Bacon seems to prefer U.S. release dates and LOL FFXIV. Will probably submit something for the other three, though the years aren't multiples of fives so chances aren't necessarily great.

October's got the 20th anniversary of FFVI's U.S. release and the 10th for San Andreas though. So there's that!
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#349 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/7/2014 11:32:28 AM | message detail
Do you guys think the Baconator will include Tales of Xillia 2 in the GotY polls?

User Rating: 4.37 / 5 (or 8.74/10)
5 Reader Reviews (Average: 8.80/10)
27 Critic Reviews (Average: 7.12/10)
MetaCritic MetaScore: 72
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#350 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/7/2014 12:21:47 PM | message detail
OrangeCrush980 posted...
Do you guys think the Baconator will include Tales of Xillia 2 in the GotY polls?

User Rating: 4.37 / 5 (or 8.74/10)
5 Reader Reviews (Average: 8.80/10)
27 Critic Reviews (Average: 7.12/10)
MetaCritic MetaScore: 72


Probably not. Based on the games that were in last year's GotY polls, it seems like he was choosing the games based on the critic review scores instead of the GameFAQs review scores or the user ratings. A 7.12 Critic Review average probably won't be good enough to appear in any GotY poll.
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