Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1187

#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/16/2014 12:22:56 AM | message detail
League of Legends to win Best Game Ever 3!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | BabyYouASong | Posted 6/16/2014 12:25:18 AM | message detail
Wow. You sure did a lot of work with these stats. I'm going ot have to check them out.
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You make me wanna roll my windows down and cruise.
#3 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 6/17/2014 3:05:37 AM | message detail
Now with 250% more Luster poll analysis.
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Current Let's Play: Harvest Moon: Magical Melody - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3609787
Prev: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#4 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/17/2014 3:36:31 AM | message detail
Djungelurban posted...
Actually, the Korean word for football is actually "soccer", or atleast a Korean equivalent of "soccer".


Interesting. I did not even know this. Even then, it does not explain why Soccer is winning in Japan, China, or Taiwan. In the previous topic, I already stated that those countries receive almost no votes from their native born citizens. It's mostly Americans living overseas in those countries that are contributing votes towards Japan, China, and Taiwan.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#5 | Safer_777 | Posted 6/17/2014 3:57:06 AM | message detail
Why you Americans call it soccer? I never understood.
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Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
#6 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/17/2014 4:04:28 AM | message detail
This post explains everything you need to know:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/3-poll-of-the-day/69465241/787090059

Basically, the sport was introduced to the US while "Football" was still known as "Soccer" in the UK. When "Soccer" was abandoned in favor of "Football", countries such as the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand continued to use the term "Soccer" when referring to "Football".
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#7 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 6/17/2014 10:15:50 AM | message detail
ah this poll has the funniest trends
#8 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/17/2014 12:04:58 PM | message detail
Trend chart for the first 15 hours so far:

Time | Football | Soccer | Lead
1:00 | 21.03% | 78.97% | +1942
2:00 | 28.05% | 71.95% | +884
3:00 | 37.13% | 62.87% | +418
4:00 | 42.15% | 57.85% | +200
5:00 | 49.86% | 50.14% | +3
6:00 | 52.23% | 47.77% | -46
7:00 | 48.63% | 51.37% | +34
8:00 | 38.53% | 61.47% | +331
9:00 | 33.65% | 66.35% | +515
10:00 | 33.06% | 66.94% | +535
11:00 | 33.98% | 66.02% | +511
12:00 | 34.67% | 65.33% | +475
13:00 | 33.63% | 66.37% | +479
14:00 | 36.51% | 63.49% | +374
15:00 | 35.87% | 64.13% | +361

Unlike in the continent poll, Soccer hasn't been lighting it up with that day vote so far. I guess we'll have to wait for those Europeans to go to sleep before we see Soccer begin to really gain percentage like crazy.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#9 | LOLContests | Posted 6/17/2014 2:57:52 PM | message detail
I've always thought that a cool idea for a FINAL Contest, or for the last contest for a while, would be to figure out which characters have the best track records (by giving them points for every round they advanced*) and determine seeding that way. The top 48 (minus the ToC participants) would get in, and the bottom 16 would be made up of the entrants that got the most nominations.

So I decided, what the hell, why don't I figure this out myself and make a mock bracket!

Note: The seedings here are mostly accurate, but not exact. Two of the 4/5's got switched around, and the 7 and below seeds got jumbled after I figured out that I forgot about Leon. The bottom 16 were just guesses of mine basically.

North Division

(1) Mario
(16) Guybrush Threepwood

(8) Diablo
(9) Kratos

(5) Auron
(12) Zack Fair

(4) Tifa Lockheart
(13) CATS

(6) Yoshi
(11) Frog

(3) Kirby
(14) Ellie

(7) Scorpion
(10) Jill Valentine

(2) Sonic the Hedgehog
(15) Blastoise

East Division

(1) Crono
(16) Ness

(8) Aerith Gainsborough
(9) Yuna

(5) Ryu
(12) Altair

(4) Sora
(13) Commander Shepard

(6) Zero
(11) Liquid Snake

(3) Zelda
(14) Tidus

(7) Leon Kennedy
(10) Big Boss

(2) Ganondorf
(15) Shulk

South Division

(1) Solid Snake
(16) Pac-Man

(8) Kefka
(9) Donkey Kong

(5) Vincent Valentine
(12) Sub-Zero

(4) Dante
(13) Phoenix Wright

(6) Mewtwo
(11) Weighted Companion Cube

(3) Squall Leonhart
(14) GURU PICK

(7) Charizard
(10) Magus

(2) Bowser
(15) Missingno

West Division

(1) Samus Aran
(16) Ezio Auditore da Firenze

(8) Pokemon Trainer Red
(9) Vivi

(5) Luigi
(12) Tommy Vercetti

(4) Pikachu
(13) Gordon Freeman

(6) Alucard
(11) Knuckles the Echidna

(3) Master Chief
(14) GladDOS

(7) Squirtle
(10) Mega Man X

(2) Mega Man
(15) Nathan Drake

Tournament of Champions

Round One

Link
L-Block

Cloud
BRACKET WINNER

Sephiroth
Draven

Round Two
Winner of Match 1
Winner of Match 2
Winner of Match 3

Final Round
Winner of Round Two
Runner-Up of Round Two

*With half points for 2nd place finishes in 2007/2008 and half of a point for the First Round in 2010.
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This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*!
#10 | Ngamer64 | Posted 6/17/2014 3:53:47 PM | message detail
If anyone hasn't seen it yet, DDJ completed his GameFAQs Top 100 games project where over 2000 users picked their 5 favorite games across B8 and 200+ other boards. The writeups for 10 through 1 are here, in case you'd like to read them before being spoiled

http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/2704.html




Let's check the final Top 20 and how they compare to "The List" from back in 2005!

1. Chrono Trigger (3)
2. Ocarina of Time (2)
3. Final Fantasy VII (1)
4. Final Fantasy VI (10)
5. A Link to the Past (4)
6. Metal Gear Solid 3 (21)
7. Majora's Mask (46)
8. Mario 3 (5)
9. Melee (6)
10. Final Fantasy X (12)
11. Final Fantasy Tactics (19)
12. Dark Souls (NEW)
13. Skyrim (NEW)
14. Final Fantasy IX (42)
15. Metroid Prime (29)
16. Resident Evil 4 (14)
17. Super Mario World (23)
18. Persona 4 (NEW)
19. Metal Gear Solid (8)
20. Super Metroid (24)

Games that have taken a tumble since 2005 (falling out of the Top 20) are...

7. Goldeneye - down to 81st
9. Halo 1 - down to 54th
11. San Andreas - down to 38th
13. Mario 64 - but only down to 21st
15. Symphony of the Night - but only down to 25th
16. Kingdom Hearts - down to 41st
17. Final Fantasy VIII - down to 38th
18. StarCraft - down to 36th
20. Diablo II - but only down to 26th

Other FRESH BLOOD (new since 2005)

22. The Last of Us
22. Mass Effect 2
29. Morrowind
30. Fallout 3
31. Shadow of the Colossus
32. Bioshock
33. Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door
37. Donkey Kong Country 2
43. Okami
44. Red Dead Redemption
44. Mega Man X
48. Fire Emblem: Awakening
50. Persona 3
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Whoops, accidentally interviewed Zen instead of raytan on The Show, but congrats!
#11 | pjbasis | Posted 6/17/2014 3:58:36 PM | message detail
#12 | pjbasis | Posted 6/17/2014 4:02:59 PM | message detail
I think I like the old list better.

Some of those changes really reflect the shrinking userbase
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##LongLiveraytan
#13 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/17/2014 4:22:32 PM | message detail
I am tracking poll updates for today's poll right here:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdDM5QXJ3R09XZnZTZ2NBNGQxN2tKZXc
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#14 | superange128 | Posted 6/17/2014 4:29:52 PM | message detail
#15 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 6/17/2014 5:01:24 PM | message detail
will this one last as long as the last one
#16 | Safer_777 | Posted 6/17/2014 5:19:31 PM | message detail
Okay I see. Still soccer seems so strange to be called that way.
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Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
#17 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/17/2014 8:54:26 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Djungelurban posted...
Actually, the Korean word for football is actually "soccer", or atleast a Korean equivalent of "soccer".


Interesting. I did not even know this. Even then, it does not explain why Soccer is winning in Japan, China, or Taiwan. In the previous topic, I already stated that those countries receive almost no votes from their native born citizens. It's mostly Americans living overseas in those countries that are contributing votes towards Japan, China, and Taiwan.


I think it is called Soccer in Japan as well.
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#18 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/17/2014 10:07:38 PM | message detail
Final trend chart:

Time | Football | Soccer | Lead
1:00 | 21.03% | 78.97% | +1942
2:00 | 28.05% | 71.95% | +884
3:00 | 37.13% | 62.87% | +418
4:00 | 42.15% | 57.85% | +200
5:00 | 49.86% | 50.14% | +3
6:00 | 52.23% | 47.77% | -46
7:00 | 48.63% | 51.37% | +34
8:00 | 38.53% | 61.47% | +331
9:00 | 33.65% | 66.35% | +515
10:00 | 33.06% | 66.94% | +535
11:00 | 33.98% | 66.02% | +511
12:00 | 34.67% | 65.33% | +475
13:00 | 33.63% | 66.37% | +479
14:00 | 36.51% | 63.49% | +374
15:00 | 35.87% | 64.13% | +361
16:00 | 32.31% | 67.69% | +415
17:00 | 31.38% | 68.62% | +432
18:00 | 31.89% | 68.11% | +442
19:00 | 28.60% | 71.40% | +458
20:00 | 26.29% | 73.71% | +478
21:00 | 21.55% | 78.45% | +589
22:00 | 25.34% | 74.66% | +434
23:00 | 21.48% | 78.52% | +470
24:00 | 20.64% | 79.36% | +441

Poll updates and trend charts are located here:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdDM5QXJ3R09XZnZTZ2NBNGQxN2tKZXc

Vote totals on this poll were fairly good. They were definitely above average, with about 4000 more votes than the average poll right now.

Geolocation trends on this poll are quite interesting here. We knew Soccer was going to dominate the US and Canada, but I was actually expecting Soccer to be more dominant than this in the US and Canada. Soccer didn't even get 90% in the US, which is a surprise given the 98% that Football had in the UK.

I can only assume that a lot of the Football votes from the US and Canada came from immigrants or people who were born to immigrant parents. In addition to that, I believe the most hardcore Soccer fans in the US and Canada were more likely to call it Football instead of Soccer.

Before this poll, I had no idea that Soccer was commonly used in Australia and New Zealand as well. Soccer was almost as dominant in Australia as it was in the US and Canada. However, Soccer is less commonly used in New Zealand, but even it managed to put up around 66% in New Zealand.

As for Asia, Soccer managed to slightly edge out Football in the Philippines and also won in Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan. While Football dominated Malaysia pretty badly, Indonesia somehow had a lot of support for Soccer. It was a pretty large minority, but Soccer did very well to pull in 36% there.

In Europe, Football dominated Europe as a whole, with 90%+ in most countries. Out of the major countries, Football had less than 85% in the Netherlands (82.52%), Austria (82.22%), Switzerland (81.58%), Ireland (78.57%), Germany (77.97%), and Italy (57.14%). That percentage in Italy was quite surprising. I don't know how to explain Italy's low percentage for Football.

In South America, Football had over 90% in every country except for Columbia (82.61%), Brazil (77.88%), and Guyana (50.00%). That percentage in Guyana means nothing as that country probably only had 2 or 4 votes. The low percentage for Football in Brazil was also surprising, although maybe some Brazilians felt like submitting a joke vote since the poll question mentioned Brazil in the poll question.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#19 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/17/2014 10:07:42 PM | message detail
You guys should already have a good idea of what the trends will look like even without any explanation from me.

Soccer performs best during the board vote, but then loses about 1.5% during the rest of the Power Hour. Overall, it had a very strong Power Hour, in addition to a very strong SNV.

After the Power Hour ends and we head into the night vote, Soccer slowly begins losing strength as the night vote drags on. There was a real scare with the 2:25 AM update where Football came just 3 votes away from a tie update. That was just a hiccup and Soccer would go back to dominating Football for the next 50 minutes or so before Football made another attempt at winning an update.

4:15 AM was the first tie update of this poll, while 4:30 AM was Football's first cut. 4:25 AM was when Soccer reached its maximum lead of 3477 before Football started cutting into the lead. Overall, Football only managed to cut a total of 96 votes off the lead. Football's best update happened at 5:10 AM and 5:50 AM, both of them being 19 vote cuts. The last time Football won an update was at 6:50 AM, because it never won a single update after that point in time.

Soccer barely won the 4:00-5:00 AM hour, but only by 3 votes. Football won just one hour and that was from 5:00-6:00 AM, because Soccer would come back and win the 6:00-7:00 AM hour and never look back for the rest of the poll. Because this poll happened on a weekday, we saw the morning vote kick in much faster than usual, even with this poll happening during the summer vacation when there is no ASV in place right now. Soccer recovered during the morning vote very quickly, as you could see by that huge 10% jump from 6:00-7:00 AM to 7:00-8:00 AM.

Soccer reached its lowest percentage of 64.44% at 8:10 AM. Thanks to an early surge from the morning vote, Soccer quickly gained about 0.5% in about 2 hours. But then the surge from the morning vote died down after that and because Europe still has a very strong presence in this poll right now, Football was able to stop Soccer from continuing that trend of gaining more percentage. At times, Football was making an attempt to gain percentage as well. This trend would stay in place from around 10:00 AM to 3:00 PM. Around 3:00 PM (oddly enough, around the same time the ASV normally begins), Soccer finally started putting together a consistent trend of gaining percentage which would continue for the last 9 hours of this poll.

Soccer was most deadly during the last 5 hours of this poll when Europe was finally starting to go to sleep. That 74.66% hour sandwiched in between the 78.45% hour and the 78.52% hour was a very unusual anomaly here. I can only assume the 9:00-10:00 PM hour had more Asians voting than usual because of them waking up in the morning to vote and that might explain the drop off compared to the hour before and after the 9:00-10:00 PM hour. Soccer's best hour overall didn't actually happen during the Power Hour, but during the final hour of this poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#20 | Xeybozn | Posted 6/18/2014 9:47:56 AM | message detail
I made a mock bracket for a games contest using DDJ's Top 100 list, just to get an idea for how seeding would go for a bracket without generation groups. Figured I'd post it here in case anyone wanted to discuss something other than Luster poll stats (and because I know nobody is interested, so I might as well put it in a topic nobody reads instead of making a new one). I tried to get some good matchups in there, though.

1. Chrono Trigger
8. Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty

4. Pokemon GSC
5. Final Fantasy VIII

3. The Last of Us
6. Half-Life 2

2. Super Smash Bros. Melee
7. Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3

1. Super Mario Bros. 3
8. Planescape: Torment

4. Bioshock
5. World of Warcraft

3. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
6. Mega Man X

2. Final Fantasy X
7. Fire Emblem: Awakening

1. Final Fantasy VII
8. Earthbound

4. Diablo II
5. Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door

3. Mass Effect 2
6. Tales of Symphonia

2. Metroid Prime
7. Xenoblade Chronicles

1. The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask
8. Team Fortress 2

4. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
5. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas

3. Super Mario World
6. Xenogears

2. Final Fantasy Tactics
7. Pokemon XY

1. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
8. Baldur's Gate II

4. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
5. Deus Ex

3. Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4
6. Red Dead Redemption

2. Dark Souls
7. Sonic the Hedgehog 2

1. Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater
8. Super Mario RPG

4. Fallout 3
5. Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest

3. Super Metroid
6. Okami

2. Resident Evil 4
7. Super Mario Galaxy

1. Final Fantasy VI
8. Fallout: New Vegas

4. The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind
5. Pokemon RBY

3. Super Mario 64
6. Suikoden II

2. Final Fantasy IX
7. Halo

1. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
8. Mass Effect

4. Shadow of the Colossus
5. Starcraft

3. Metal Gear Solid
6. Kingdom Hearts

2. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
7. Super Smash Bros. Brawl
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Congrats to 2013 Guru champ raytan!
#21 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/19/2014 9:05:51 PM | message detail
Bump
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#22 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 6/19/2014 10:14:13 PM | message detail
Seems like there's not a lot of discussion regardless!
Quite a few good matches in there though, and I see lots of nice small touches.

Main change I'd make is to shuffle the 3 seeds:
-Is anyone really going to take Kingdom Hearts > Metal Gear Solid after how bad KH has looked the last few contests? I don't think that highly of the latter's strength and I'm not touching that upset with a 10-foot pole. Seems a shame to waste one of the two strongest 6 seeds like that. Put Mass Effect 2 there instead of MGS1 and it'd at least be debatable.
-Metal Gear Solid replaces Super Metroid. I think MGS would likely be favored to win Round 2 against RE4/Galaxy but that it wouldn't be a total given - and I certainly wouldn't take Super Metroid to be competitive there. Leaves us with a potential MGS1/MGS3 match in the division finals, which would let us see whether MGS3 being the top game in its series is just the list being weird or gamefaqs' true feelings. And Bacon always throws in SFF matches regardless so they might as well have a point.
-Super Metroid takes The Last of Us's spot against Half-Life 2. SM probably shouldn't win that since HL2 was Metroid Prime's equal in GotD but I figure it's got a better chance at pulling it off than Okami does of beating SM.
-I think it's asking an awful lot out of The Last of Us for it to put up a fight against Half-Life 2. The Last of Us can get a chance in Persona 4's fourpack instead. (Which should have Sonic 3 & Knuckles, Sonic 2 was like 99th.) Persona 4 already got put into the weakest fourpack in Game of the Decade and won so we don't need to see that again. Also this way all of the games in the weak fourpack would be untested in actual contests.
- Having Persona 4 replace Mass Effect 2 gives us a Tales of Symphonia/Persona 4 battle to determine which one is likely the strongest non-Nintendo/Squeenix JRPG. The latter could actually win given how well it did in that recent favorite '4' game poll.
-Not a 3 seed but Metroid Prime got kind of a raw deal since I took it's ME2 match. I guess switch the first and third division's 3/6 seeds. ToS/Persona 4's winner likely loses in round 2 regardless. And this way we'd get a potentially cool rematch. Metroid Prime/Half-Life 2 in Game of the Decade was close enough that it being a day match might have decided the outcome so why not give it another go? Also gives us a good measure of Prime's strength vs. Super through Half-Life 2 matches. Or alternatively, if Super Metroid can beat Metroid Prime's once-equal, I think it deserves a shot at Prime.
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[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#23 | Xeybozn | Posted 6/20/2014 9:54:25 AM | message detail | (edited)
A lot of interesting points there. Here's my thoughts on them:

- Sonic 2 took S3&K's spot because Bacon's already said that S3&K isn't eligible, so I figure that's where Sonic noms would end up going. (And it seemed better than booting Sonic entirely for Resident Evil 2.) I don't think there's any significant strength difference between the two anyway.

- ME2/KH isn't a bad idea, but I wouldn't want it where KH is now. ME2 is a new entrant, but it already lost to Brawl and Skyrim in the Game of the Generation poll. It should go up against something it hasn't faced before if possible, just in case it does win the match. The problem is that there's nowhere else to put that without reworking the whole bracket.

- Trying to set up MGS1/MGS3 is a bad idea because of the possibility that only one of them makes it. If FO3/RE4 wins one of those matches without too much trouble and the other loses, there won't be much suspense about the next round. Also, SFF matches are terrible.

- Super Metroid's placement was to try to get it away from SFF for once. But looking back, Okami isn't strong enough to make that a good match; we need something stronger there.

So if we're going to make changes to improve things, I'd go with these:
- Leave Super Metroid where it is, but change its first round opponent to Kingdom Hearts. KH2/RE4 was a close match in '09, so it's the SM/KH winner should at least avoid a blowout, plus we finally get to see how strong SM is. And that division really needs a Square game anyway.

- Change ME2's first round opponent to HL2. This is more about getting a better match-up for The Last of Us, but it's a good match on its own, and the potential HL2/MP rematch is nice.

- Put Okami up against The Last of Us. Swapping that match with P4/RDR might be OK, but I think Okami is too obviously strong for a fodder fourpack, so I'll leave that as is.

- ToS gets screwed and faces MGS1 in the first round. But it was pretty screwed already, so what are you gonna do?

Edit: I forgot to say why ME2/KH shouldn't be done in ME2's current bracket spot. The problem is that KH could very win that fourpack, and then we're stuck watching FFVII get an SFF blowout in the third round. I'd rather not see that if it can be avoided. That's why there's nowhere to put that match, which is too bad because that could be a good one.
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Congrats to 2013 Guru champ raytan!
#24 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/20/2014 12:03:30 PM | message detail
Xeybozn posted...
- Sonic 2 took S3&K's spot because Bacon's already said that S3&K isn't eligible


He technically can't deny its eligibility now.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/pc/620568-sonic-3-and-knuckles
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#25 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/20/2014 6:27:17 PM | message detail
Polls for the next 3 days:

6/21/2014 - What's your pick for Game of the Year so far?
6/22/2014 - Are you following the World Cup this year?
6/23/2014 - Do you ever feel guilty about some of the bad things you have to do to characters in the games you play?

Tomorrow's poll will be interesting because I would like to see what games are in the running for Game of the Year. The poll on 6/22/2014 will probably have some interesting trends, so I'm tracking that poll. And there's nothing special about the 6/23/2014 poll.

We are also getting much closer to having another batch of "Got Console?" polls.
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#26 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 6/20/2014 6:31:29 PM | message detail
The only games I've played from this year are:

Bravely Default (definitely included)
Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (probably gets skipped due to being a port)
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc (probably gets skipped due to LOL Vita)
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#27 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/20/2014 9:12:03 PM | message detail | (edited)
Today's poll is quite surprising. Mario Kart 8 is actually winning this poll. In addition, Mario Kart 8 has a higher percentage right now compared to Wii U's ownership in the previous "Got Wii U?" poll. This is a possible sign that Mario Kart 8 had a strong impact on Wii U's ownership.

Another thing that surprised me Dark Souls II actually losing to Bravely Default. Dark Souls II has been consistently at number 2 or number 1 on the Top 100 list every single day since the game was released, and it's currently back in 4th place in this poll.
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#28 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/20/2014 9:09:51 PM | message detail
Mario Kart 8 is winning because all of the other entries in the poll are weak. People who haven't played any of these games are voting MK8 by default, most likely.
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#29 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/20/2014 9:10:11 PM | message detail
It's still quite early, the board vote tends to skew some of the results
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#30 | swordz9 | Posted 6/20/2014 9:10:43 PM | message detail
Kirby Triple Deluxe was robbed and should have been included in the poll. I'm assuming the HD ports of FFX/X-2 and the ToS games weren't included due to being ports.
#31 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 6/20/2014 9:12:05 PM | message detail
Yay, Danganronpa made it! Although it's getting stomped right now.
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#32 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/20/2014 9:16:09 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
It's still quite early, the board vote tends to skew some of the results


MK8 loses almost 2% on the first update after the board vote. MK8 is also overperforming here because of "Recent Game Release Factor". By the time we have our actual GotY polls at the start of next year, MK8 will be even weaker by then.

Poor Child of Light, it's getting stomped badly right now and that's a game that would appeal to the GameFAQs audience because it's an RPG game.
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#33 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 6/20/2014 9:21:41 PM | message detail
Bravely Default is slowly inching forward. This might get interesting during the night vote.
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#34 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/20/2014 9:26:03 PM | message detail
For reference, the current results at the freeze:

Bravely Default 12.94% 44
Child of Light 2.06% 7
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc 2.06% 7
Dark Souls II 11.47% 39
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze 5.29% 18
inFamous: Second Son 6.47% 22
Mario Kart 8 35% 119
South Park: The Stick of Truth 15% 51
Titanfall 4.41% 15
Watch Dogs 5.29% 18
TOTAL VOTES 340

MK8 has lost about 5% since then, while Bravely Default has gained about 2% and Dark Souls II around 4%. South Park has lost about 1.5% since the freeze.
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#35 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 6/20/2014 9:26:05 PM | message detail
And now its back to being doubled and is now losing to Dark Souls II
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#36 | Articuno2001 | Posted 6/20/2014 9:26:40 PM | message detail
Of the 7 new games I've played a significant amount in 2014, one is in the poll (Danganronpa). Typical.
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#37 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/20/2014 9:26:45 PM | message detail
There's very little chance of MK8 losing at this point. It's just a matter of how much percentage it will lose.
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#38 | swirIdude | Posted 6/20/2014 9:29:13 PM | message detail
Much as I like MK8, Danganronpa, Bravely Default, and Titanfall, I had to vote Child of Light, for being so pretty and engaging.
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#39 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/20/2014 9:33:02 PM | message detail
This is a pretty severe drop for MK8. By the end of this poll, we could be looking at MK8 losing around 9-10% for the rest of this poll after the board vote. The night vote is going to be very harsh on MK8 tonight.
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#40 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 6/20/2014 9:34:42 PM | message detail
This poll reminds me that I should buy that South Park game
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#41 | swordz9 | Posted 6/20/2014 9:36:07 PM | message detail
Just realized Lightning Returns wasn't included either.
#42 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 6/21/2014 9:10:28 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
Just realized Lightning Returns wasn't included either.


good
#43 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 6/22/2014 1:48:00 AM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
(4) Dante
(13) Phoenix Wright


Man, I would so be over this upset like crazy.
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#44 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/23/2014 9:19:55 PM | message detail | (edited)
So we're just 5 days away from Poll 5555. For Poll 4444, we had this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4444

I don't think we'll have a poll called "What's your all-time favorite '5' game?" for Poll 5555 because there are less notable "5" games than "4" games. The biggest name "5" games are Skyrim, GTA V, Final Fantasy V, Suikoden V, Resident Evil 5, Tekken 5, Mega Man 5, and Mega Man X5.

Outside of Skyrim, FFV, and GTA V, most of those games are worse than the games we had in the "4" game poll.
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#45 | swirIdude | Posted 6/24/2014 6:49:27 AM | message detail | (edited)
Those are enough entries for a Best5 poll, so it would be fine.

I want to know why Allen ran another Best 4 Poll in April.
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#46 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/24/2014 8:36:23 AM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
I want to know why Allen ran another Best 4 Poll in April.


I would assume it was because of the date he chose to re-run that poll on, which was 4/4/2014.
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#47 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/25/2014 8:03:55 PM | message detail
Bump
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#48 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/27/2014 9:43:23 PM | message detail
Bump
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#49 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/28/2014 9:15:41 PM | message detail
So we get the Favorite 5 game poll after all.

Skyrim domination time.
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#50 | Articuno2001 | Posted 6/28/2014 9:20:52 PM | message detail
All this poll tells me is that not enough people have played Dragon Quest V.
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