Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1186

#351 | swirIdude | Posted 5/7/2014 6:15:38 AM | message detail
Has anyone tried to make a usable X-Stats from the last contest? I remember seeing an unadjusted one that showed Chie and Jak high up with Draven, but I can't find it in the archives.
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raytan: Champ without picking the champ
#352 | pirate109 | Posted 5/7/2014 6:26:58 AM | message detail
so uh

% chance of a contest happening this year
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#353 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/7/2014 7:21:37 AM | message detail
20%
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Play Pac-Man World 2.
#354 | abdou | Posted 5/7/2014 9:26:25 AM | message detail
0%

I don't think SBAllen will want to make another contest ever again.
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#355 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 5/7/2014 9:33:03 AM | message detail
0.000001%

We might see another one sometime, but not this year. The contests were already moving towards every other year and LSD didn't help.
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#356 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 5/7/2014 4:34:50 PM | message detail | (edited)
I attempted a set of x-stats awhile back. Compensated for LFF and stupid stuff using stats from 2010 and even Rivalry Rumble. The resulting x-stats were still kind of stupid.

Laptop stopped working over the past week so I can't retrieve it for you. I did post it in the stats topic sometime after the last contest though so they should be somewhere in the archives.
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[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#357 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/7/2014 10:58:16 PM | message detail
The board vote for this poll was hilarious to watch. 59.09% at the end of the first minute, 52.05% at the end of the second minute, and 48.74% at the freeze.

I'm surprised at the hype for the Hoenn remakes. Also, we're nearly 2 hours into the poll and "I plan to pick one or both up" has not lost a single update yet.
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#358 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 5/9/2014 8:19:19 PM | message detail
Bump
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#359 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 5/11/2014 8:16:16 PM | message detail
Bump
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#360 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/11/2014 9:20:50 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5505
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4065

It's very strange that "2010s" is actually performing slightly worse in today's poll compared to the 2010 poll despite a larger library of games for this decade so far. Back when we had this poll in 2010, it would obviously make sense for "2010s" to perform very badly since the game library of the 2010s at the time of the previous poll was very small. Despite the 2010s having a much larger game library today, it's actually performing worse in today's poll.
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#361 | superange128 | Posted 5/11/2014 9:22:00 PM | message detail
#362 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 5/12/2014 12:51:32 AM | message detail
The reduction in votals probably has a bit to do with these results.

Also look at what's happened in the gamefaqs GOTY since 2010.

2011 gave us Skyrim, which was admittedly big, and some sequels that maybe are as good or a bit better than their predecessors. Are Portal 2 and Arkham City better games than Portal and Arkham Asylum? Many people would say yes but not many are gonna vote for 2010s based on that, especially when the 1990s are even stronger than the 2000s. Skyward Sword? We're done here.

2012 might as well have been a victory for none of the above, especially with many of the relevant characters bombing last character battle.

2013's possibly two strongest games being modern Pokemon and portable Zelda speaks for itself. Yeah, those are sure gonna make people vote for 2010s over 1990s.

...Also, the last option isn't funny anymore. 10 months being as good as the entire 1990s or 2000s was pretty much a joke option. By this point in 2014, 2010s being better sounds at least somewhat viable, though obviously few on gamefaqs agree.
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[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#363 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/12/2014 3:11:50 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
The reduction in votals probably has a bit to do with these results.


Yeah, I think our lower vote totals is affecting the results of this poll and dozens of other polls as well. Let's look at how lower vote totals can affect the results of our polls.

The root cause behind the lower vote totals is a large majority of first time visitors coming to GameFAQs by using a Google search result to completely bypass the homepage, which means they never see the poll. This has been an established fact for nearly 2 years, so this is nothing new to us.

As a direct result of this, this is also the same reason why we have fewer people signing up for a GameFAQs account. The same people who can't find the poll on the homepage (because they bypassed it from Google) are also the same people who are unable to find the account registration form. So we have fewer people signing up for a GameFAQs account, resulting in our current userbase shrinking in size.

What I stated above is the reason our average age continues to increase in a rapid pace in the age poll despite maintaining the same average date of birth. The age poll would have gotten different results if the people who were bypassing the homepage actually voted in the poll, since they would be younger (on average) than the current userbase that makes up the large majority of our votes.

While this problem has affected the results of our age polls, it also has an effect on other polls as well. When you have a very small, but dedicated userbase like we have today, it will produce results that are sometimes different than the average site visitor. The average site visitors aren't voting in these polls though.

Possible polls (during this year) that could have gotten different results with higher vote totals:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5496
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5494
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5475
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5440
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5415
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5413
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#364 | Dr_Starbucks | Posted 5/12/2014 3:58:03 AM | message detail
By this time next year we will be averaging under 20k votes

lol
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#365 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/12/2014 4:07:45 AM | message detail
25000 seems more realistic than 20000. To go from averaging about 30000 votes to 20000 in the span of one year is a very huge change.

At this point, our vote totals are so low that it is becoming even harder for vote totals to drop even more.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#366 | Dr_Starbucks | Posted 5/12/2014 4:12:00 AM | message detail
Votals have already declined by like 4-5000 votes since the beginning of THIS year. We aren't averting 30,000 anymore son
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Dr Starbucks is in the house
#367 | Safer_777 | Posted 5/12/2014 4:23:01 AM | message detail
Nostalgia I guess? Man this site.
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#368 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/12/2014 4:25:58 AM | message detail
Dr_Starbucks posted...
Votals have already declined by like 4-5000 votes since the beginning of THIS year. We aren't averting 30,000 anymore son


If you're looking at the vote totals of the individual polls, you will get a misleading impression that our vote total decline is worse than it actually seems.

Average vote totals for each month this year:

January - 32267 (minus the GotY polls)
February - 31668
March - 29863
April - 29748
May - 28361 (extremely small sample size so far)
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#369 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 5/12/2014 9:37:39 AM | message detail
This week's top 100 list and chart are in:

http://www.ddjgames.com/top-100-games-of-all-time-according-to-gamefaqs-60-to-51/
http://www.ddjgames.com/chart-games-in-the-top-100-by-console/

My thoughts:
- I was afraid Pokemon X/Y would be even higher, so seeing it down here is settling.
- Melee > Brawl is coming!
- Xenoblade just barely missed the top 50, and lost to Xenogears which is coming up next list. I have mixed feelings about this one
- Still no Tales of Symphonia. Hopefully that means it's still coming up! (Apparently Mother 3 just barely missed the cut despite me thinking it was guaranteed)
- GBA only had 1 game on the list, and is presumably tied with the GBC as the Nintendo handheld with the least games. If I hadn't rallied for Fire Emblem 7, we might've not even gotten that!

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#370 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 5/12/2014 9:43:55 AM | message detail
what in the world, a 3 vote jump from Brawl to Xenoblade?
#371 | Dr_Starbucks | Posted 5/12/2014 7:52:21 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Dr_Starbucks posted...
Votals have already declined by like 4-5000 votes since the beginning of THIS year. We aren't averting 30,000 anymore son


If you're looking at the vote totals of the individual polls, you will get a misleading impression that our vote total decline is worse than it actually seems.

Average vote totals for each month this year:

January - 32267 (minus the GotY polls)
February - 31668
March - 29863
April - 29748
May - 28361 (extremely small sample size so far)


So... thanks for proving me right? There's been a 4,000 votal decline on average since Janurary
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#372 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/13/2014 1:01:43 AM | message detail
As far as vote totals for this month goes, it's still very early and we could still end up with an average over 29000 votes for this month (which would only be a decline of about 3000 instead of 4000 since January). With yesterday's poll, the average for May has gone up to 28792.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#373 | Dr_Starbucks | Posted 5/13/2014 4:09:26 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
As far as vote totals for this month goes, it's still very early and we could still end up with an average over 29000 votes for this month (which would only be a decline of about 3000 instead of 4000 since January). With yesterday's poll, the average for May has gone up to 28792.


Ugh, if it's "only" 3,000, that's still a 10% drop in 4 months which is a big drop.
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Dr Starbucks is in the house
#374 | abdou | Posted 5/13/2014 8:41:30 AM | message detail
It's insane how much votals have plummeted since their peak in 2008/2009 . SBAllen should work on finding a way to make people visit the homepage again, assuming this is all due to users bypassing the homepage.
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#375 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/13/2014 9:08:58 AM | message detail | (edited)
abdou posted...
It's insane how much votals have plummeted since their peak in 2008/2009 . SBAllen should work on finding a way to make people visit the homepage again, assuming this is all due to users bypassing the homepage.


Here is another major problem that I believe is also contributing to our low vote totals:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000094-faq-contributors-general/67907018

In that topic, a lot of contributors wanted to have option 2 put into place instead of option 1. I personally voted for option 1 because it would solve the problem of site visitors finding it very difficult to visit other parts of the site outside of the FAQ they are reading.

Here is an example of a plain text FAQ:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/ps3/693331-dark-souls-ii/faqs/69278

As of right now, if you visit a plain text FAQ, it is very difficult to visit other parts of the site because there are only 4 links on the page - A link to the profile of the user who submitted the FAQ, a link to the game's full FAQ listing, a direct link to the FAQ (without the header), and a very small GameFAQs logo that takes you to the homepage.

The only way to reach the homepage is a very small GameFAQs logo in the top right corner of the header. Very few visitors are actually aware that you can click on the small GameFAQs logo to visit the homepage. With the current layout for plain text FAQs, it is also impossible to have a full site banner, such as the banners used to promote the Character Battle contest. Site visitors who visit a plain text FAQ from Google will not even notice the sweet looking banner that was used to direct people to the poll results page for the last 4 matches of the previous contest.

Formatted (HTML based) FAQs are a different story altogether, because they have a full site navigation header that makes possible to display a full site banner related to each contest match. However, Formatted FAQs make up an extremely small portion of the total FAQs on this site.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#376 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 5/14/2014 7:53:07 PM | message detail
Bump
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#377 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/14/2014 9:09:33 PM | message detail
Today's poll is quite interesting. It basically reconfirms that Smash Bros. will most likely be the one game that saves the Wii U, but Zelda also possesses very strong potential to save the Wii U as well. After Smash Bros. and Zelda, no other game is expected to save the Wii U.

Sometime around July of this year, we will get another batch of "Got Console?" polls. This will give us a better read on Mario Kart 8's impact on Wii U ownership on this site.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#378 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 5/14/2014 9:13:48 PM | message detail
the correct answer is obviously the last one, but of course you can't see a game before it even exists
#379 | abdou | Posted 5/15/2014 7:25:31 AM | message detail
How does one game 'saves' a console? wii u will see a big bump in sales during the 2-3 weeks after a big game like zelda comes out but that won't change the fact that it is millions of units behind where it should be or that third party support is non-existent. Every failed console had its one big game , GC had Melee..it sold 8 millions copies but GC still ended up being a terrible commercial failure. Actually every Nintendo console got the obligatory Nintendo 1st party games the Zelda and Mario and they always sell great but that never stopped N64 and NGC from being crushed by the competition. If Nintendo wants to compete with Sony/MS they have to get strong third party support, or massive 'casual' appeal like the original wii .
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#380 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/16/2014 9:12:07 PM | message detail
I am totally tracking poll updates for today's poll because I expect some interesting trends for this poll.
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#381 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/17/2014 9:02:11 PM | message detail
Yay, another poll that should have some extreme trends.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#382 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 5/17/2014 9:04:30 PM | message detail
did yesterday's even have particularly extreme trends?
#383 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/17/2014 9:05:37 PM | message detail
I haven't had the time to look at the trends yet, but I'll do that within the next few hours.
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#384 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 5/17/2014 9:56:57 PM | message detail
I do see the trend here though, Board 8 hates sports!
lol
#385 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/17/2014 10:38:57 PM | message detail
Poll updates and trend charts for yesterday's poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdEFJSWxGcUZSTWRfNGloOGxCOS1iSXc&gid=1

"Less than 10 miles away" started off the poll with a terrible board vote and Power Hour. It slowly gained more and more strength as we got deeper into the night vote. It performed best during the deep night vote and early morning vote. It began dropping off when the morning vote kicked in. It performed worst during the last few hours when Europe was going to sleep. "Less than 10 miles away" only lost a grand total of 2 poll updates during this entire poll.

The trends for "Less than 10 miles away" weren't that extreme to begin with. And because this poll had a total of 7 options, you had 6 other options all fighting over whatever percentage was gained/lost by "Less than 10 miles away".

"Between 11 and 25 miles" had very consistent trends during this poll with the exception of a bad SNV.

"Between 26 and 100 miles" had a very good board vote, although it had very consistent trends after the board vote wore off

"Between 101 and 500 miles" also had very consistent trends besides a bad night vote.

"Between 501 and 1500 miles" had a very good board vote, but a bad night vote and early morning vote.

"Between 1501 and 3000 miles" had a terrible board vote, night vote, and morning vote. It performed best during the Power Hour, Day Vote, and the SNV.

"More than 3000 miles away" had the most consistent trends overall. The trends were fairly consistent besides the good SNV.
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#386 | ffmasterjose | Posted 5/18/2014 2:42:19 PM | message detail
Voted last option
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Your new reigning and defending Guru Champion, raytan7585!
#387 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/18/2014 3:42:38 PM | message detail
^ In today's poll or yesterday's poll?
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#388 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/18/2014 9:10:36 PM | message detail
Wow, Watch Dogs got heavily anti-voted during the board vote.
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#389 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 5/18/2014 9:14:35 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Wow, Watch Dogs got heavily anti-voted during the board vote.


SHOCKING NEWS /s
#390 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/18/2014 9:21:18 PM | message detail
These poll results also strongly suggest that most voters are planning to get Watch Dogs on PS4 or Xbox One over PS3 and Xbox 360. It's quite embarrassing that "Yes, on the Xbox 360 or Xbox One" is just barely beating out "Yes, on the Wii U". No one in their right mind would even think of getting Watch Dogs on Wii U. If Xbox 360 and Xbox One combined is barely beating Wii U alone, this suggests that most Xbox gamers plan on buying the Xbox One version over Xbox 360.
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#391 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 5/18/2014 9:22:16 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5493

see ya when Watch Dogs goes up a bit
unless a bunch of people just defaulted to Watch Dogs for some reason while being interested in nothing
#392 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 5/18/2014 9:24:12 PM | message detail
The Wii U version of Watch Dogs doesn't even come out next week. Regardless of their state of mind, no one is getting Watch Dogs on Wii U next week.
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Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#393 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 5/19/2014 9:29:13 AM | message detail
It's JRPG week over at the top 100:

http://www.ddjgames.com/top-100-games-of-all-time-according-to-gamefaqs-50-to-41/
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#394 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 5/19/2014 3:37:17 PM | message detail
My updated list of games that are still likely to show up or be a close snub based on that criteria that I'm too lazy to explain again:

1. World of Warcraft
2. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
3. Dark Souls
4. Metroid Prime
5. Super Mario 64
6. Diablo II
7. Fallout 2
8. Shadow of the Colossus
9. The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind
10. Bioshock
11. Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door
12. The Last of Us
13. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
14. Pokemon G/S/C/HG/SS
15. Final Fantasy Tactics

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Courage is the magic that turns dreams into reality
#395 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/19/2014 10:11:36 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Wow, Watch Dogs got heavily anti-voted during the board vote.


SHOCKING NEWS /s


Looking at the graph for yesterday's poll, I noticed the last poll option was losing percentage for the entire poll. So Watch Dogs has classic FFVII trends. Classic FFVII trends refers to trends that existed before 2008 where anything related to FFVII would start out with its lowest percentage of the match and gain percentage for the entire match.

Percentage for the last option at various points in time:

1:00 AM - 52.00%
3:00 AM - 50.75%
6:00 AM - 50.20%
12:00 PM - 49.56%
6:00 PM - 49.01%
12:00 AM - 48.61%
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#396 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 5/21/2014 9:39:30 PM | message detail
Bump
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#397 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/22/2014 6:12:51 AM | message detail | (edited)
I love that the last contest was so insane that there's literally nothing to discuss besides the PotD.

Is this the longest-lasting stats thread yet?
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#398 | swirIdude | Posted 5/22/2014 6:31:40 AM | message detail
I figure this topic is dead because the low votals and rally-determined winners mean there isn't much of a reason to speculate on future matchups. All of our past stats are effectively worthless.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
raytan: Champ without picking the champ
#399 | pirate109 | Posted 5/22/2014 7:48:50 AM | message detail
That and the fact that we likely won't have another contest until mid 2015, if ever
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#400 | charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2014 7:51:03 AM | message detail
I just want one more games contest.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest