Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1186

#251 | ZFS | Posted 4/4/2014 6:42:39 PM | message detail
maybe if MGS4 was a good game
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#252 | Big Bob | Posted 4/4/2014 8:05:41 PM | message detail | (edited)
Resident Evil 4 boosted nicely with the ASV, but I'm impressed with Persona for holding on enough to beat Oblivion. Remember when it couldn't even beat SFIV?
#253 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 4/4/2014 8:14:00 PM | message detail
Since this site does not care much about modern gaming and given that with its competition it's practically winning by default, I wouldn't call the Playstation brand strong! Would take Gamecube over PS3 in a Best Console contest.

And there seems to be a trend here with MGS4:
2008: Almost beats Brawl twice.
2009: Gets easily beaten by Brawl once, then narrowly beats it twice thanks to ridiculous Nintendo LFF.
2010: 55% on Diablo II, loses to Shadow of the Colossus.
2011: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4444
2013: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5467
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#254 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 4/4/2014 8:43:56 PM | message detail
hasn't Brawl itself fallen quite a bit?
I seem to remember a bunch of games getting the jump on it in that Game of the Generation poll
#255 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 4/4/2014 9:02:42 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4962

Brawl did around the same as it always does against Twilight Princess and has Nintendo LFF as a plausible excuse against any outside competition there. Galaxy doing so well could be a warning sign but it looked way better in GotD than it had in 2009 games so it might have continued to trend upwards.
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#256 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 4/4/2014 10:31:33 PM | message detail
Votals ended up barely half what they were for the favorite '4' poll in 2011, a few months before Rivalry Rumble.

Final Fantasy IV rose from 43.83% on RE4 in 2011 to...43.85% on RE4 now. Sounds a bit high and these 10-way polls aren't that trustworthy, but worth looking into.

FFIV got 30.63% on Super Mario World in 2009 while being leeched by FF1 so that definitely underrates it a bit.

Final Fantasy IX got 36.93% on Final Fantasy X in 2010. Roughly comparable to FFIV? I doubt FFX was on Super Mario World's level at that point.

GotD x-stats (where both games are extrapolated through direct matches with FFX) have FFIX getting 42.76% on RE4, about the same as FFIV got on RE4 here. Any adjustment for SFF in FFX/IX would also improve FFIX relative to RE4 and therefore doesn't make much difference.

And Golden Sun, which also had a direct match with FFX, is extrapolated to get 39.75% on RE4. Would definitely expect FFIV to be stronger than Golden Sun.

A lot of that could turn out to be nonsense but I'd say FFIV getting around 43.8% on RE4 in a contest match is at least plausible.
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#257 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/5/2014 1:21:07 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Votals ended up barely half what they were for the favorite '4' poll in 2011, a few months before Rivalry Rumble.


Yesterday's poll received the equivalent of 105603 votes if we applied 2008 vote totals to yesterday's poll. While that estimated vote total is very good, it's not as good as the 2011 poll which received an equivalent of 113949 votes.

Getting to 40000 votes in any poll with today's vote totals is not as easy as you might think. 40000 votes would be roughly the same vote totals as 120000 votes back in 2008. Only 24 non-contest polls have ever achieved the 120000+ vote mark, so it's a testament to the difficulty of reaching those vote totals during 2007-2009.

Right now, only the age poll has the capability to reach 40000 votes. I wager the age poll will be the only non-contest poll this year to break 40000 votes.
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#258 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 4/6/2014 9:37:01 PM | message detail
Bump
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#259 | Zylothewolf | Posted 4/7/2014 11:58:16 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...

Right now, only the age poll has the capability to reach 40000 votes. I wager the age poll will be the only non-contest poll this year to break 40000 votes.


So it will be the only poll.
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#260 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/9/2014 4:18:07 AM | message detail
"No, I've never been a Smash Bros. fan, and probably never will be" is absolutely destroying the night vote and early morning vote right now. In fact, "No, I've never been a Smash Bros. fan, and probably never will be" is trying to pull off a comeback right now, but the day vote should prevent it from winning this poll. By the end of this poll, I expect "Yes, I'm definitely going to be getting both editions" to win this poll thanks to North America bailing it out.

I am not very impressed with these results at all. Here is today's poll, plus a related poll for Brawl:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5472
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3011

In today's poll, the last 2 options are currently combined for almost 43%. In the second poll, the last 2 options combined for almost 40%. For Brawl, about 60% of the site was interested in buying the game. For the upcoming Smash game, less than 40% are interested in buying the Wii U version. It's also a bad thing the 3DS version is slightly beating out the Wii U version here considering Smash (and the next Zelda) is the biggest console seller among GameFAQs users.
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#261 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 4/9/2014 9:26:50 AM | message detail
haha 3DS>Wii U right now
LOLOLOLOL
#262 | charmander6000 | Posted 4/9/2014 9:41:06 AM | message detail
Last Got Console? poll series had 3DS ownership at almost twice of Wii U. If anything it's more impressive that Wii U is anywhere close.
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#263 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 4/9/2014 11:40:47 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Last Got Console? poll series had 3DS ownership at almost twice of Wii U. If anything it's more impressive that Wii U is anywhere close.


after hearing Nintendo fans go on and on about how nobody would just get the 3DS version, nah
#264 | swirIdude | Posted 4/9/2014 12:21:55 PM | message detail
I expect the 3DS version to outsell the Wii U version because people actually own a 3DS.
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#265 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/9/2014 12:47:16 PM | message detail | (edited)
1337gamerpr0 posted...
haha 3DS>Wii U right now
LOLOLOLOL


You completely ignored the fact that Smash is a system seller. It is the one game, along with the next mainline Zelda game, that is a must have game for Wii U among GameFAQs users.

I still think that most Smash fans would rather prefer to experience the game in full HD on a big screen, so that's why I think the Wii U version will eventually become more popular than the 3DS version. Also, the Wii U version is a better option if you want to play online with other people.


charmander6000 posted...
Last Got Console? poll series had 3DS ownership at almost twice of Wii U. If anything it's more impressive that Wii U is anywhere close.


Wii U ownership will really start to pick up later this year when we get closer to the release date of the Wii U version.
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#266 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 4/9/2014 2:25:31 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Last Got Console? poll series had 3DS ownership at almost twice of Wii U. If anything it's more impressive that Wii U is anywhere close.


after hearing Nintendo fans go on and on about how nobody would just get the 3DS version, nah


I haven't really kept up too much but we didn't know the 3DS version would come out months before the Wii U until the Direct, right? If so, those statements were made under the assumption of a near simultaneous release. I would imagine many would give a different answer if they knew the 3DS version came out first.
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#267 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/9/2014 3:30:00 PM | message detail
Yesterday's Direct was the first time that we found out the 3DS version will be released months before the Wii U version.
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#268 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 4/10/2014 10:09:50 AM | message detail
Good news: DetroitDJ submitted the first top 100 list

Bad news: SBAllen would rather keep the current list up for 2 days then move on to DetroitDJ's list
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#269 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/10/2014 10:17:50 AM | message detail
http://www.ddjgames.com/b/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/01-Genres.png

That is the genre breakdown of the top 100 list.
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#270 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 4/10/2014 12:06:44 PM | message detail
2 months later, a chart of the top 100's genres, progress!
#271 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 4/10/2014 7:52:58 PM | message detail
MMORPG is WoW.
Fighting is Melee, Brawl, and SFII.
Puzzle is Tetris and I think Phoenix Wright 1 and 3 if only because they wouldn't fit anywhere else.
Real-time strategy is very likely Warcraft 3 and Starcraft.
Survival Horror is probably Silent Hill 2, RE4, and either RE1 or RE2.
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#272 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 4/11/2014 6:21:35 AM | message detail
And today's top 10 is an old list.

*sigh* Why do I bother getting excited for things?
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#273 | Cavedweller2000 | Posted 4/11/2014 6:34:04 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...

Survival Horror is probably Silent Hill 2, RE4, and either RE1 or RE2.


Most likely RE2 I'd say
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#274 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/11/2014 5:00:59 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#275 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/11/2014 5:01:31 PM | message detail | (edited)
EPIC POLL ALERT

Less than 4 hours left until our next age poll begins. This is the third age poll in a row that has happened on a weekend. Weekend polls have very boring trends because it doesn't have normal ASV trends. I'm interested in seeing another age poll to figure out the average age of this site.

The other big thing with the age poll is seeing whether this poll will actually break 40000 votes. Not a single poll this year has even managed to reach 40000 votes, but I think the age poll will break 40000 votes and continue the tradition of having well above average vote totals compared to the polls in the previous 30 days. In the past, the age poll would have about 40% higher vote totals compared to the average vote totals over the previous 30 days.
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#276 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/11/2014 9:07:36 PM | message detail
519 votes at the freeze in today's age poll. Last year's age poll had 718 votes at the freeze. Of course, we had higher average vote totals around the time of last year's age poll.
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#277 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/11/2014 10:02:23 PM | message detail | (edited)
4095 votes at the end of the first hour. For reference, last year's age poll had 5491 votes at the end of the first hour. Based on the vote totals in today's poll so far, this poll is on track to finish between 40000 and 44000 votes. I am very confident that this poll will in fact break 40000 votes.

Consider it...

CALLED
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#278 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 4/12/2014 4:18:41 AM | message detail
Bold prediction!
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#279 | Safer_777 | Posted 4/12/2014 5:31:56 AM | message detail
So in 1999 most of the people that were coming in this site were between13 and 15 and 15 years later most are between 21 and 24. Gaming age has grown indeed.
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#280 | DASHING_RPGlord | Posted 4/12/2014 9:15:04 AM | message detail
OMG LUSTER WHY!?

My thing, so tainted
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#281 | swirIdude | Posted 4/12/2014 9:50:46 AM | message detail
You'll need to get a new gimmick.

Consider it...

TAINTED
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#282 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/12/2014 8:26:20 PM | message detail | (edited)
We finally broke 40000 votes on the 11:20 PM update.

Even though it took until the final hour of the poll to reach 40000 votes, the possibility was still up in the air that this poll could have finished below 40000 votes. But I always maintained the upmost confidence that this poll was definitely breaking 40000 votes.

Now that we have broken 40000 votes on this poll, I must say that we will never get another poll above 40000 votes outside of another age poll, unless Bacon makes significant changes to the site that boosts our vote totals. If our average vote totals continue to drop even more, the next age poll we get will not even reach 40000 votes.
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#283 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/12/2014 9:40:32 PM | message detail
Now that the age poll has come to a close, our average age has just increased to 25.43. Last year's age poll was an average of 24.40. The Board 8 wiki page has also been updated. You can check out the updated page right here:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Average_Age

I will post the trend charts eventually.


As usual, vote totals for the age poll were quite good. Yesterday's age poll received the equivalent of 127625 votes if you adjusted the actual vote total based on 2008's average vote totals of 91112 votes and the average vote totals from the 30 days prior to yesterday's age poll.

Based on 2008 vote totals, here are the adjusted vote totals for every age poll since 2002:

9/10/2002 - 128523
9/22/2003 - 124624
3/22/2006 - 110878
4/18/2007 - 132200
8/26/2009 - 126491
3/29/2010 - 135041
3/9/2011 - 119908
3/4/2012 - 131106
5/26/2013 - 125106
4/12/2014 - 127625

The 2006 age poll had the most disappointing vote totals, but even it's still projected to break 110000 votes under the era of 2008 vote totals. Every age poll except the 2006 and 2011 polls would be projected to break 120000 votes with 2008 level vote totals in place.
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#284 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 4/12/2014 9:55:46 PM | message detail
In the nine years from the 2000 to 2009 age polls, the average age of a gamefaqs voter increased from around 17 to 21 while the average date of birth crept forward from like July 1983 to July 1988.

In the four and a half years since the 2009 age poll, the average age has increased from around 21 to 25.5 while the average date of birth has stayed within ~6 months of July 1988. And the average date of birth isn't even consistently moving forward anymore. The latest it's gotten is around January 1989 as of 2012 and it fell backward in both the 2013 and 2014 age polls.
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#285 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/12/2014 10:06:56 PM | message detail | (edited)
The rapid acceleration in this site's average age has more to do than just our current user base getting older. Bacon has admitted that traffic to the site has been at its absolute highest in history, the problem is that most of these visitors are bypassing the homepage completely by visiting GameFAQs from a Google search result. This has caused a massive decline in the number of new users signing up for the site, many of whom are probably younger than the current site's average of 25.43.

If we could actually increase overall site traffic to other parts of the site outside of the FAQs and cheats, we would end up replenishing our user base with some younger users and lowering our average age. We're stuck with a very static user base that has stayed almost identical to the same user base from several years ago.
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#286 | Safer_777 | Posted 4/13/2014 3:48:11 PM | message detail
The nostalgia is getting ridiculous. Around 1/4 of the people the last game they played was more than 5 years old? Really? That is amazing.
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#287 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/13/2014 4:54:39 PM | message detail
In the same poll from back in 2012, the last 3 options combined for a total of 21.87%. In today's poll, the last 3 options are currently combined for 24.72%, so that's not a huge difference at all.
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#288 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 4/13/2014 5:21:07 PM | message detail
Could be people playing the FFX/2 remake.
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#289 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 4/14/2014 4:57:05 AM | message detail
Back to top 100 whining!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000445-top-10-lists/68997852/780246099

DetroitDJ posted...
If the first list in the series is posted to GameFAQs [last] week, I'll go ahead and post it to DDJGames.com as well. If not, I'll post the first list on DDJGames [this] Monday, with one list following each subsequent Monday.


This might be the day! Probably. Hopefully.
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#290 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 4/14/2014 9:47:51 AM | message detail
OrangeCrush980 posted...
Back to top 100 whining!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000445-top-10-lists/68997852/780246099

DetroitDJ posted...
If the first list in the series is posted to GameFAQs [last] week, I'll go ahead and post it to DDJGames.com as well. If not, I'll post the first list on DDJGames [this] Monday, with one list following each subsequent Monday.


This might be the day! Probably. Hopefully.


Maybe.
#291 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/14/2014 10:18:16 AM | message detail
Today's poll has some very extreme trends as a result of Bacon forgetting to include an option for "12-24 hours". There was an option for "12-24 hours" in the 2012 poll, but something seems to have happened which resulted in today's poll not having "12-24 hours" as an option. Because this poll is almost identical to the 2012 poll, but with one missing option.

I believe the missing option in today's poll has resulted in very extreme trends for "4-12 hours" and "1-7 days" if you looked at the poll graphs. The people who planned to vote for "12-24 hours" are then forced to vote for either "4-12 hours" or "1-7 days" instead, but it seems like "4-12 hours" has gained the largest benefit from these voters.
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#292 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/14/2014 8:46:32 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
In the nine years from the 2000 to 2009 age polls, the average age of a gamefaqs voter increased from around 17 to 21 while the average date of birth crept forward from like July 1983 to July 1988.

In the four and a half years since the 2009 age poll, the average age has increased from around 21 to 25.5 while the average date of birth has stayed within ~6 months of July 1988. And the average date of birth isn't even consistently moving forward anymore. The latest it's gotten is around January 1989 as of 2012 and it fell backward in both the 2013 and 2014 age polls.


Because of your post, I have put up even more information on the Board 8 wiki page for "GameFAQs Average Age".

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Average_Age

On that page, I also put up Average Date of Birth for every age poll we've had so far. I also included my own analysis regarding the connection between Average Age and Average Date of Birth.
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#293 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 4/14/2014 9:20:45 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000445-top-10-lists/68997852/780710514

DetroitDJ posted...
OrangeCrush980 posted...
So, are you still thinking of posting 91-100 on your website today?


Oh, I forgot about that. I dunno, I think I'll wait. I could see it taking another week: tomorrow it's rejected because of the Imgur link, the next day it's rejected because the title says 'Top 100' instead of 'Top 10', etc.


There's not a cell in my body that's even remotely surprised. Besides, at this point I want to see if it can get delayed all the way to May.
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#294 | Safer_777 | Posted 4/15/2014 3:44:58 AM | message detail
I don't get it. Pople complain that there isn't multiplayer in all games yet almost everyone prefers single player games. I guess Game Developers should notice that?
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#295 | pjbasis | Posted 4/15/2014 3:59:31 AM | message detail
#296 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 4/15/2014 3:11:02 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I don't get it. Pople complain that there isn't multiplayer in all games yet almost everyone prefers single player games. I guess Game Developers should notice that?


GameFAQs is much more shut in then your average modern gamer
#297 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/15/2014 7:54:52 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I don't get it. Pople complain that there isn't multiplayer in all games yet almost everyone prefers single player games. I guess Game Developers should notice that?


On GameFAQs, RPGs are the dominant genre here. RPG games focus very heavily on the single player portion of the game, compared to the multiplayer portion. So it's not a surprise that GameFAQs prefers single player games over multiplayer games.

Action Adventure games also are popular on GameFAQs as well, and those games also focus more on single player than multiplayer.
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#298 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 4/16/2014 9:13:10 AM | message detail
Wow, we actually got the 91-100 games today!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/2679.html
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#299 | swirIdude | Posted 4/16/2014 9:23:50 AM | message detail
It is worth noting that sharing in the tie for 98th were Shin Megami Tensei: Nocturne and Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney: Trials and Tribulations, which each also received 24 votes. Ties were broken arbitrarily in this list series, and those two games were listed at 101st and 102nd in the results print-outs based on chance.

Booooo.
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#300 | superange128 | Posted 4/16/2014 9:40:26 AM | message detail
to be fair randomizing was really the most fair way he could have done it
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