Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1186

#151 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 3/10/2014 10:23:04 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
https://twitter.com/DDJGames/status/442884257912848384

I guess if we've already waited this long, another week won't hurt too much!


we should start betting on how long it'll take for the first list to come out
#152 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 3/11/2014 8:37:51 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Link to where he said that?


http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000445-top-10-lists/68701182


Also I looked at:

http://www.ddjgames.com/category/gamefaqs-top-100/

And was able to derive some information on which games made the cut or are likely to have made it.

Games that gained points within the top 100 on the last day and thus are guaranteed to have made it in:

1. Mother 3
2. World of Warcraft
3. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
4. Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos
5. Resident Evil 2
6. Kid Icarus: Uprising
7. Dark Souls
8. Metroid Prime
9. Super Mario 64
10. Okami

Games that gained points within the top 100 on the second to last day and didn't lose as many points on the last day (I think that means they're guaranteed to be in unless I'm misinterpreting something):

1. Super Mario World 2: Yoshi’s Island
2. Super Mario RPG
3. Portal 2
4. Tales of Symphonia
5. Kingdom Hearts
6. Fallout: New Vegas
7. Perfect Dark

Games that gained or lost points within the last 5 days, and thus are likely to have either made the list or be a close-ish snub:
1. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
2. Chrono Cross
3. Dragon Age: Origins
4. Xenogears
5. Skies of Arcadia
6. Mega Man X
7. Diablo II
8. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
9. Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations
10. Shin Megami Tensei: Nocturne
11. Tales of the Abyss
12. Fallout 2
13. Borderlands 2
14. Tales of Vesperia
15. Fire Emblem
16. The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds
17. Portal
18. Final Fantasy IV
19. The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
20. Super Mario Galaxy 2
21. Half-Life
22. The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening
23. Halo 2
24. Xenoblade Chronicles
25. Pokemon HG/SS
26. Suikoden II
27. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
28. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
29. The World Ends With You
30. Shadow of the Colossus
31. The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind
32. Red Dead Redemption
33. Grand Theft Auto V
34. Tetris
35. Bioshock
36. Batman: Arkham City
37. Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door
38. The Last of Us
39. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
40. Uncharted 2: Among Thieves
41. Earthbound
42. Pokemon G/S/C
43. Super Mario Galaxy
44. Final Fantasy Tactics
45. Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty
46. Planescape: Torment

Keep in mind that the higher a game is on the list, the harder it is to move, so if a popular game isn't listed here it's likely in the top 50.
---
'It's a widely-known fact that GameFAQs is filled with normal, well-adjusted people who are an accurate representation of society as a whole' - cruelbird
#153 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 3/11/2014 1:07:32 PM | message detail
Only things there not on my prediction are Planescape Torment, MGS2, Morrowind, and Pokemon GSC. Unsurprising that it's so close since I looked at that data too.

One of the hints he gave us was that only three franchises had more than three games on the list, and Metal Gear is obviously not one of the three franchises, so MGS2 making it would mean one of MGS1/3/4 didn't. So I'm thinking MGS2 was a narrow miss.

Pokemon XY was confirmed and there's no way RBY didn't make it so based on the rule of three above, GSC and HGSS are mutually exclusive. Apparently I missed that both GSC and HGSS were on the days' biggest movers/drops. Oops.

Both are on your list there but Morrowind instead of The World Ends with You sounds probable, especially since he noted Square-Enix games as major snubs. Morrowind > Skyward Sword would also be plausible!

Planescape Torment...Would probably have to be over Phoenix Wright 1 or 3. Very possible, especially considering the amount of voters from the PC board.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#154 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/11/2014 9:10:56 PM | message detail
And now the poll just glitched up. The poll from yesterday failed to close at 12:00 AM EST, so the current poll right now is still accepting more votes. The new poll will need to be put up manually.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#155 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 3/12/2014 12:01:43 AM | message detail
SB's just gonna change the daily poll when the first top 100 list appears
aka we're stuck with this one forever
#156 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 3/12/2014 4:40:18 AM | message detail
Yesterday's poll was so good, we're doing it again!
---
'It's a widely-known fact that GameFAQs is filled with normal, well-adjusted people who are an accurate representation of society as a whole' - cruelbird
#157 | Safer_777 | Posted 3/12/2014 5:18:47 AM | message detail
Same poll again eh? Nice!
---
Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
#158 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/12/2014 10:29:13 AM | message detail
A new poll was put up at 12:38 PM EST today. This means that yesterday's poll ran for a total of 36 hours, 38 minutes. This falls short of the 39 hour, 58 minute poll for Poll 4060 way back in 2010.

I plan on posting poll updates and trend charts for this entire 36 hour, 38 minute poll eventually.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#159 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/12/2014 3:34:29 PM | message detail
Poll updates for the 36 hour, 38 minute poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdHNfLTAyNDVfcE1SVVNac2x2RzRXSEE

For the poll updates, I added a new column called "Votes Per Update" so you can see how many votes we were getting per update on the second day of the poll. We even had 16 vote updates in the middle of the night on Day 2.

By the 24 hour mark in this poll (when the poll should have closed at), we were at 31560 votes. Even with the extra 12 hours, 38 minutes, this poll only received an additional 5400 votes. We still wouldn't have reached 40000 votes even with the extra time. If the poll ran for a full 48 hours, this poll would barely surpass 40000 votes. In fact, a full 48 hour poll would result in about 77% of the total votes being submitted during the first 24 hours, so there isn't much of a reason to run a 48 hour poll during a contest (if Bacon ever considered during that for the final match).

Trend charts for the 36 hour, 38 minute poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdHNfLTAyNDVfcE1SVVNac2x2RzRXSEE&gid=1

Get ready guys, because you're going to see some new acronyms that no one has ever posted before on the trend chart page.

With the hourly trends, all 5 options were pretty consistent for the first 24 hours. After the 24 hour mark when the poll heads into the second day of voting, you start seeing some weird trends, probably because of the very low amount of incoming votes on the second day. For example, "Yes, just once or twice" had a monstrous 50.27% hour from 3:00-4:00 AM on Day 2. After that 50.27%, "Yes, just once or twice" ends up with 2 hours of 38.97% and 36.00% from 4:00-5:00 AM and 5:00-6:00 AM respectively. After 8:00 AM on Day 2, "Yes, just once or twice" starts putting up more crazy hours again.

In the second set of trend charts, you will see some new acronyms that have never been posted before in any stats topic. I just invented "SBSV" and "SDSV" as a result of this poll. "SASV" and "TNV" are also possible acronyms in the event this poll ran for a full 48 hours.

The first 2 options both perform worse during Day 2 of this poll, in order to make up for "Yes, just once or twice" putting up a very strong performance on Day 2.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#160 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 3/12/2014 9:04:13 PM | message detail
first list on Monday?
hopefully there won't be a 2nd delay
#161 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 3/13/2014 12:07:27 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Get ready guys, because you're going to see some new acronyms that no one has ever posted before on the trend chart page.

...

In the second set of trend charts, you will see some new acronyms that have never been posted before in any stats topic. I just invented "SBSV" and "SDSV" as a result of this poll. "SASV" and "TNV" are also possible acronyms in the event this poll ran for a full 48 hours.


You're blowing my mind.
---
Current Let's Play: Harvest Moon: Magical Melody - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3609787
Prev: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#162 | swirIdude | Posted 3/14/2014 12:29:06 PM | message detail
Which pie flavor would win a bracket contest?
---
"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
raytan: Champ without picking the champ
#163 | charmander6000 | Posted 3/14/2014 12:47:35 PM | message detail
Cherry

Maybe apple
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#164 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/14/2014 10:06:33 PM | message detail
I expected today's poll to have terrible vote totals, simply because a lot of people are too lazy to say the alphabet backwards for the purpose of answering this poll. 2237 votes at the end of the first hour, which means this poll will finish somewhere between 20000 and 23000 votes.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#165 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 3/15/2014 5:57:02 PM | message detail
#166 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 3/17/2014 10:53:42 AM | message detail
And this:

www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000445-top-10-lists/68701182

DetroitDJ posted...
And five lists later, the fun has dissipated. I'm not going to have these ready for tomorrow -- I could, theoretically, post the first one tomorrow, but I've revised the first one several times while writing the next five, so I'd rather get all ten finished before posting any. I've noticed a couple significant errors in earlier lists.


*sigh* I hope he still isn't planning on having a week between lists...
---
'It's a widely-known fact that GameFAQs is filled with normal, well-adjusted people who are an accurate representation of society as a whole' - cruelbird
#167 | KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2014 10:55:15 AM | message detail
Let him take his time. There's a ridiculous amount of data he has to work with.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#168 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 3/17/2014 11:48:51 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Let him take his time. There's a ridiculous amount of data he has to work with.


yeah, but at the same time we better not be getting weekly releases once the first one actually comes out
also damn you this thread could've been sent to the archives and it would've been hilarious!
#169 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 3/17/2014 1:39:25 PM | message detail
Can't believe Luster isn't tracking this. Trends and stuff!
---
Current Let's Play: Harvest Moon: Magical Melody - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3609787
Prev: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#170 | swirIdude | Posted 3/17/2014 1:52:05 PM | message detail
Board 8 doesn't archive, so this topic would have purged.
---
"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
raytan: Champ without picking the champ
#171 | Nanis23 | Posted 3/17/2014 1:56:01 PM | message detail
I'm sure that some Contest Stats and Discussion topics were purged during the off season some time before no?
#172 | swirIdude | Posted 3/17/2014 2:09:59 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I'm sure that some Contest Stats and Discussion topics were purged during the off season some time before no?


The very first stats topic was modded for being off-topic (go figure), but I can't recall one ever purging.
---
"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
raytan: Champ without picking the champ
#173 | charmander6000 | Posted 3/17/2014 2:24:28 PM | message detail
We've had a couple purge IIRC.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#174 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/17/2014 2:31:59 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I'm sure that some Contest Stats and Discussion topics were purged during the off season some time before no?


Sometimes someone makes a new topic too early and it purges before we get to it. While I'm sure there's been at least one topic that was used for a while and purged before 500, I don't think it has happened in years.
---
No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#175 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/18/2014 7:20:59 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Can't believe Luster isn't tracking this. Trends and stuff!


I have full poll updates for yesterday's poll (and the one from 2012). I haven't gotten around to posting the updates and trends yet.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#176 | red sox 777 | Posted 3/18/2014 2:32:44 PM | message detail
Stats topic 277 purged.
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
#177 | red sox 777 | Posted 3/18/2014 2:33:36 PM | message detail
Though I'm surprised another one hasn't purged more recently. Nowadays the pace of posts in these is slower than it has ever been.
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
#178 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/18/2014 3:48:34 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Though I'm surprised another one hasn't purged more recently. Nowadays the pace of posts in these is slower than it has ever been.


I keep an eye on the topic to make sure it doesn't purge and I'm guessing others do as well since I don't really need to bump the topic very often. Being slower makes things easier in a way since it never really feels like you can let your guard down and skip checking on the topic.
---
No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#179 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 3/18/2014 5:03:11 PM | message detail
Apologies for the ongoing delay -- I would have been ready to post the first list yesterday, but I noticed that I inadvertently counted votes for Kingdom Hearts II under both "Kingdom Hearts II" and "Kingdom Hearts 2". That wouldn't be a big issue, except that that was the difference between it being outside the top 100 and inside the top 100, which meant re-doing all my graphs, moving items between lists, changing some of the analysis, etc. It was a big headache.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#180 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 3/18/2014 8:15:02 PM | message detail
RIP former #100
#181 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/18/2014 9:48:31 PM | message detail
I noticed that Bacon finally moved the last Character Battle into the "Past Contests" section on this page:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/

For months after the last Character Battle ended, it was still listed in the "Current Contests" section even though the contest ended already. That finally changed as Bacon updated that page.

I don't think it means anything as far as when the next contest will be announced.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#182 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 3/18/2014 9:54:05 PM | message detail
Super Metroid is impressing. Its playrate in this poll is almost as high as Metal Gear Solid's was a few months back.

Should have a fairly bad night vote, though.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#183 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 3/19/2014 12:16:57 AM | message detail
And the series has an 83% playrate judging by this poll. Makes you wonder why the series has never done all that well in games contests aside from GOTD (and there it was possibly due to weakness of opponents - Half-Life 2 and Fallout 3 may be critically-acclaimed and super popular in general, but on this site I don't think it's nearly to the same extent. Then we saw how post-RBY Pokemon generally doesn't amount to much).
---
Play Pac-Man World 2.
#184 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 3/19/2014 2:35:55 AM | message detail
FO3 looked pretty damn strong in GotD though, and Bethesda games impress here in general.

I'd still love to see how strong Skyrim would be in a Games contest, even though it's likely past its prime now. I still think it'd possibly be a Top 10 game, especially considering how much the site has changed the past few years.
---
Current Let's Play: Harvest Moon: Magical Melody - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3609787
Prev: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#185 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 3/19/2014 9:07:55 AM | message detail
Well there's that whole thing about Fallout 3's performance against Brawl being potentially suspect, and perhaps, just maybe...GOTD maybe not being legit? We really need an all-inclusive games contest at some point.

And then I remember that you might as well throw legitimacy out the window with this site's current votals.
---
Play Pac-Man World 2.
#186 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 3/19/2014 10:42:47 AM | message detail
Fallout 3 certainly benefited from anti-Brawl votes
not that I trust GotD results much to begin with
#187 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/19/2014 9:05:22 PM | message detail
I am impressed at the results of today's poll. Almost 37% of the site knows all 9 playable characters in FFVII. That means good things when it comes to getting other FFVII characters into a contest.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#188 | abdou | Posted 3/19/2014 9:15:44 PM | message detail
but we are probably never getting another character contest . and FF7 and its characters have been getting weaker and weaker, so I am not impressed by this poll at all.
---
...
#189 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 3/19/2014 11:19:53 PM | message detail
If the bottom two options really only combined for 37% early on, that probably explains a lot about the game's early anti-voters; they have not played the game to a significant extent.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#190 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/19/2014 11:38:39 PM | message detail
Combined percentages for the bottom 2 options at various points in time:

12:05 AM - 45.28%
12:10 AM - 49.17%
12:15 AM - 49.62%
12:30 AM - 52.49%
1:00 AM - 54.51%
2:00 AM - 55.85%

So there's pretty much a clear trend right there.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#191 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/20/2014 12:16:24 AM | message detail
I just remembered this poll from about 2 years ago:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4615

I actually have poll updates for that poll, so I can tell you the last option started out with 36.45% at the freeze. At 1:00 AM, it had 34.02%, and 32.70% at 2:00 AM. Well, that's a less extreme trend shift than the trends in today's poll.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#192 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 3/20/2014 1:08:09 AM | message detail
wow, FF7 is gonna have trends here too?
lol
#193 | Safer_777 | Posted 3/20/2014 6:30:16 AM | message detail
I voted for the last option. Yeah I don't remember all the characters in every FF game but I think nobody remembers all of them. I mean only FF 6 has 14 characters!
---
Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
#194 | swirIdude | Posted 3/21/2014 9:36:45 AM | message detail | (edited)
Bulbasaur, Charmander, Squirtle, Chikorita, Cyndaquil, Totodile, Treecko, Torchic, Mudkip, Turtwig, Chimchar, Piplup, Snivy, Tepig, Oshawott, Chespin, Fennekin, Froakie....and Pikachu.

I had to think about the 5th gen ones for a minute, but the rest were easy.
---
"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
raytan: Champ without picking the champ
#195 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 3/21/2014 2:51:20 PM | message detail
I almost forgot Turtwig
stupid 4th gen
#196 | foxhead84 | Posted 3/21/2014 5:30:53 PM | message detail
More than 6% know all of the 718 pokemons... Really??? Doesn't this prove that PotD results means nothing.
---
Congratulation to raytan. Guru Champ of Reddit's Character Battle IX
#197 | charmander6000 | Posted 3/21/2014 5:32:57 PM | message detail
Maybe not all at once, but I would imagine that percent of people would know all the Pokemon.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#198 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/21/2014 5:48:29 PM | message detail
I couldn't name all 718 without relying on pictures. And Bacon forgot there are 3 other Pokemon, although only one of those Pokemon was officially confirmed by Nintendo. There's actually 721 instead.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#199 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 3/23/2014 4:22:05 PM | message detail
Less than 1% of the site started with a Microsoft system despite the Xbox being over a dozen years old now.

No wonder Master Chief is so bad.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#200 | charmander6000 | Posted 3/23/2014 4:40:15 PM | message detail
The average age of this site kind of forces Microsoft to be non-existent.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest