Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1186

#1 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/2/2014 7:56:17 AM | message detail
Yeah, this topic's probably going to take two months to fill up.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy VI: Brave New World http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3577467
Prev: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#2 | gearofages | Posted 2/2/2014 8:09:43 PM | message detail
Any news on the next contest?
#3 | Big Bob | Posted 2/2/2014 8:13:19 PM | message detail
BREAKING NEWS: Allen still hates all of us.
#4 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 2/2/2014 8:17:53 PM | message detail
Bonus Match: Chester vs. Tanner vs. Denver Broncos
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy VI: Brave New World http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3577467
Prev: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#5 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 2/3/2014 10:47:08 AM | message detail
It's not quite an official contest but this is pretty cool:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/68425836
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/68425836/773335539
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#6 | Nanis23 | Posted 2/3/2014 10:48:56 AM | message detail
Reminder that we have yet to seen the cosplay he promised
#7 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 2/4/2014 10:23:05 PM | message detail
Bump
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#8 | red sox 777 | Posted 2/5/2014 1:22:59 PM | message detail
Nominate Link.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
#9 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/5/2014 10:03:17 PM | message detail
Oh s***, it's the Male/Female poll again. I'm glad we're getting this poll again because it's been almost 3 years since the last Male/Female poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#10 | HaRRicH | Posted 2/5/2014 10:36:39 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1107

Look at the progress we've made in female gamers visiting GameFAQs over the past eleven+ years! More seriously, it's interesting to see the female percentage has increased with every gender-poll we've had.
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M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX!
http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png
#11 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/5/2014 10:43:15 PM | message detail
These are some good vote totals so far, compared to the polls we've had for the past 4 months. This poll will probably surpass 40000 votes, which would be the first poll to get more than 40000 votes since 11/8/2013. This was our last poll to get more than 40000 votes:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5320
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#12 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/5/2014 11:18:19 PM | message detail
I am tracking poll updates for today's poll. Here are the poll updates for today's poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdFlmUmt6d3otVTF5a2ptS3NnUDBGQUE&gid=1
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#13 | swirIdude | Posted 2/6/2014 6:58:36 PM | message detail
Big Bob posted...
BREAKING NEWS: Allen still hates all of us.


We kind of deserve it.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
raytan: Champ without picking the champ
#14 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/6/2014 8:22:50 PM | message detail
Doesn't look like today's poll will break 40000 votes. I was hoping to see at least 40000 votes today since this poll had 4007 votes at the end of the first hour.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#15 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 2/7/2014 1:14:10 AM | message detail
Voting in DetroitDJ's Top 100 Games of All Time list ends tomorrow. ~2,000 users participating and ~10,000 votes cast so far.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/68425836

Everybody who hasn't go vote.

My guess at what the top 10 will look like:

1: Final Fantasy VII
2: The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
3: Chrono Trigger
4: The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
5: Super Smash Bros. Melee
6. Super Mario 64
7. Super Mario World
8. Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
9: Super Mario Bros. 3
10: Metal Gear Solid
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#16 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/7/2014 6:03:02 AM | message detail | (edited)
Final poll updates for yesterday's Male/Female poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdFlmUmt6d3otVTF5a2ptS3NnUDBGQUE&gid=1

Top 5 largest updates for Male in yesterday's poll:

99.21% (9:05 AM update)
98.15% (11:20 AM update)
97.95% (9:45 AM update)
97.58% (2:55 PM update)
97.26% (6:00 PM update)

The next largest update is below 97%. Ladies and gentlemen, this was the 9:05 AM update in yesterday's poll:

Male 99.21% 126
Female 0.79% 1
TOTAL VOTES 127

We nearly saw a 0 vote update for Female on that update. I believe that update is the closest thing to a 100% update. We've seen 0% updates before in contests, but never a 100% update. I don't think even Snake managed to get a 100% update in his match against Tanner.

Top 5 worst updates for Male:

82.65% (6:00 AM update)
83.19% (8:40 PM update)
85.00% (11:40 PM update)
85.33% (9:55 PM update)
85.38% (6:05 PM update)


Trend charts for yesterday's poll:

Time | Male | Female | Votes
1:00 | 91.74% | 8.26% | 4007
2:00 | 93.11% | 6.89% | 2411
3:00 | 92.84% | 7.16% | 1787
4:00 | 91.78% | 8.22% | 1412
5:00 | 92.09% | 7.91% | 1189
6:00 | 90.95% | 9.05% | 1116
7:00 | 92.54% | 7.46% | 1353
8:00 | 91.60% | 8.40% | 1595
9:00 | 92.87% | 7.13% | 1782
10:00 | 94.69% | 5.31% | 1845
11:00 | 91.68% | 8.32% | 1888
12:00 | 92.82% | 7.18% | 1838
13:00 | 91.46% | 8.54% | 1815
14:00 | 92.58% | 7.42% | 1590
15:00 | 92.46% | 7.54% | 1486
16:00 | 93.56% | 6.44% | 1490
17:00 | 93.06% | 6.94% | 1484
18:00 | 94.53% | 5.47% | 1482
19:00 | 91.91% | 8.09% | 1384
20:00 | 91.18% | 8.82% | 1361
21:00 | 92.33% | 7.67% | 1264
22:00 | 91.54% | 8.46% | 1159
23:00 | 91.96% | 8.04% | 1045
24:00 | 92.07% | 7.93% | 908

Time | Male | Female | Votes
EBV | 92.48% | 7.52% | 585
PHV | 91.74% | 8.26% | 4007
FNV | 92.36% | 7.64% | 7915
BSV | 92.35% | 7.65% | 4730
DSV | 92.64% | 7.36% | 9718
ASV | 92.63% | 7.37% | 10368
SNV | 92.01% | 7.99% | 1953

In the first trend chart, Male performed worst during the night vote and early morning vote. Male also performed badly during the last 6 hours of this poll. Male did best during the 9:00-10:00 AM hour (which had 2 updates of 97% or better for Male). Male also did very well from 5:00-6:00 PM, with 5 updates above 95%, including one update above 97% on the last update of the hour.

The second trend chart shows much more consistency with the trends. Male performed worst during the Power Hour and SNV.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#17 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/7/2014 6:02:28 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#18 | Glenn_and_Toad | Posted 2/7/2014 11:37:10 AM | message detail
My top 10 prediction:

1: The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
2: Chrono Trigger
3: Final Fantasy VII
4: The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
5: Super Smash Bros. Melee
6: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
7: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
8: Super Mario 64
9: The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask
10: Super Mario World
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SC2K13 Bracket: Kefka hate hate hate hate hates my bracket!
Oracle: Team Frog and Magus
#19 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 2/7/2014 11:39:50 PM | message detail
what's up with people predicting Melee and/or Brawl so high
I'm not seeing it
#20 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 2/8/2014 12:21:25 AM | message detail
Melee was pretty high on the list in 2005.
Though I figure the people that prefer Melee are much more likely to vote for it than the people who prefer Brawl hence why Brawl doesn't even make the top 10 on mine.

We'll see whether that's right or not before too long.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#21 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 2/8/2014 4:27:30 AM | message detail
Might as well give my attempt...

1. Ocarina of Time
2. Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
3. Final Fantasy VII
4. Super Smash Bros. Melee
5. Super Mario 64
6. Super Smash Bros Brawl
7. Super Mario World
8. A Link to the Past
9. Metal Gear Solid
10. Skyrim
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Play Pac-Man World 2.
#22 | Nanis23 | Posted 2/8/2014 6:20:13 AM | message detail
Quite a shame we didn't get "Got Bravely Default?" poll and instead got some stupid Flappy Bird poll
#23 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 2/8/2014 6:40:13 AM | message detail | (edited)
Where is the poll option "No, because I don't want to"?
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*1, *202,000,024 raytan7585
*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket, *3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#24 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/8/2014 7:05:02 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Quite a shame we didn't get "Got Bravely Default?" poll and instead got some stupid Flappy Bird poll


Bravely Default came out yesterday, not today. And yet he gave us some poll about Amazon making a game console (which had sucky vote totals). The funny thing is that a stupid Flappy Bird poll is going to get more votes than a poll related to Amazon's potential attempt to enter the console market.


ctesjbuvf posted...
Where is the poll option "No, because I don't want to"?


I agree that option was definitely overlooked here. And despite not having that poll option, this poll is on track to get around 32000 votes. However, I voted for "Flappy what? Huh?" since I never heard of Flappy Bird before this poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#25 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 2/8/2014 9:59:07 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Melee was pretty high on the list in 2005.
Though I figure the people that prefer Melee are much more likely to vote for it than the people who prefer Brawl hence why Brawl doesn't even make the top 10 on mine.

We'll see whether that's right or not before too long.


well yes, this is true

.....
hey give us a final day update on the standings, DetroitDJ! :P
#26 | Nanis23 | Posted 2/8/2014 10:02:27 AM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
Where is the poll option "No, because I don't want to"?


Looked for it myself
Voted for the last one because it's the most negative

Even though it's hella wrong, I read about Flappy Bird on Kotaku too much because they put 10 articles about it in a week
#27 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/8/2014 10:02:00 PM | message detail
I'm glad there's an option for "None of them" in today's poll, after Bacon messed up this poll big time:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5333

I estimated that poll would probably have gotten about 37000 votes if there was an option for "None of them". We'll find out how many votes today's poll gets.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#28 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/8/2014 10:09:05 PM | message detail
"None of them" having almost 60% proves that Bacon mistake's in that poll was even more embarrassing. Excluding over 50% of all voters from voting in the poll is unacceptable.


Also, here was a poll about 2 months after the launch of the PS3/Wii:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2636

"None of them" was doing 20% better in that poll compared to the same poll today.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#29 | swirIdude | Posted 2/8/2014 10:11:14 PM | message detail
The Nintendo voters are certainly making themselves heard right now.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
raytan: Champ without picking the champ
#30 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 2/8/2014 11:01:11 PM | message detail
Lame, DetroitDJ is going to draw out the results for the top 100 a lot:

DetroitDJ posted...
Voting is now closed! I'll be tallying the responses and writing the lists over the next few weeks. After that, I'll post the lists one per week, optimistically starting the first week of March and ending the first week of May.

Thanks to everyone for participating, and I look forward to posting the results soon!

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Courage is the magic that turns dreams into reality
#31 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 2/8/2014 11:45:59 PM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
The Nintendo voters are certainly making themselves heard right now.


imagine if 3DS and Vita were included
:lol
#32 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 2/10/2014 12:03:51 PM | message detail
You gonna update your ownership spreadsheet for yesterday's result and today's after this one finishes, Luster?
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#33 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/10/2014 4:34:18 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
You gonna update your ownership spreadsheet for yesterday's result and today's after this one finishes, Luster?


No, because these polls are very unreliable for tracking ownership. I noticed these polls seemed to result in each system having an ownership of several percentage points lower than their previous "Got Console?" poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#34 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 2/10/2014 4:43:38 PM | message detail
It's probably the other way around. My theory is people who don't have a console are more likely to abstain than someone who does have a console. This means the "Got ___" polls have inflated owner percentages. In a poll like this, owners of all three consoles come vote. This means instead of a PS3 owner abstaining on "Got Wii?", they come vote for "Just a PS3".
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#35 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 2/10/2014 4:46:59 PM | message detail
hey TRE, spill the top 100 results before DetroitDJ gets to it :P
#36 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/10/2014 4:57:45 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
In a poll like this, owners of all three consoles come vote. This means instead of a PS3 owner abstaining on "Got Wii?", they come vote for "Just a PS3".


That is probably the reason why these polls also have much higher vote totals than the "Got Console?" polls. These are just some of the insane vote totals that this kind of poll can bring in:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2576
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2722
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3193
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3436

The first poll really pops out because it is the highest known vote total recorded for a non-contest match. No other poll besides contest matches even breaks 150000 votes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#37 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 2/11/2014 8:58:40 PM | message detail
Bump
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#38 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/11/2014 10:06:06 PM | message detail
I'm totally tracking poll updates for today's poll.

Vote totals are pretty bad so far in this poll, but of course the Winter Olympics is not as popular as the Summer Olympics.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#39 | xp1337 | Posted 2/11/2014 10:07:47 PM | message detail
Glad to see Curling is competitive here.

Hockey too strong though. =(
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#40 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/11/2014 10:19:28 PM | message detail
Canada crashes the party again with a ridiculous 63.38% for Ice Hockey. It also proves once again that the US doesn't really care about hockey despite a very misleading assumption that hockey is popular in the US simply because there's a lot of people on Board 8 that discuss hockey.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#41 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 2/11/2014 10:52:22 PM | message detail
I hope someone in Jamaica votes for Bobsleigh.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#42 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/11/2014 11:06:13 PM | message detail
These vote totals are so bad today. 2216 votes at the end of the first hour, which means this poll should finish between 21000 and 24000 votes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#43 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 2/12/2014 12:04:57 AM | message detail
3537 votes

zzzzzz
#44 | tennisboy213 | Posted 2/12/2014 11:07:08 AM | message detail
Surprised Speed Skating is so low.
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Because. -SBAllen
#45 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/12/2014 7:23:41 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
I hope someone in Jamaica votes for Bobsleigh.


Although there is a vote from Jamaica now, they voted for "Ski Jumping" instead.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#46 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 2/12/2014 8:29:35 PM | message detail
took long enough to pass 20k votes
#47 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 2/12/2014 10:10:44 PM | message detail
I'm so disappointed.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#48 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/12/2014 10:51:58 PM | message detail
Disappointed in Jamaica for not voting for "Bobsleigh"?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#49 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 2/13/2014 10:02:57 PM | message detail
The suit's off!
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#50 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 2/13/2014 10:03:39 PM | message detail
Oh, Vincent.
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.