Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1185

#101 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/3/2014 9:03:18 PM | message detail
Wii U poll today. As expected, Super Mario 3D World is winning, but Wind Waker HD is also putting up a good performance as well.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#102 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/3/2014 9:03:46 PM | message detail
So how much does ALBW get on WWHD?
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#103 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/3/2014 9:22:27 PM | message detail
As of right now, Super Mario 3D World has 64.72% on WWHD. As for ALBW, I think it would probably get close to that percentage on WWHD.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#104 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 1/3/2014 9:47:05 PM | message detail | (edited)
Modern Mario doesn't have a good record on this site, gamefaqs doesn't tend to like ports much, the Wii's ownership rate is still pretty low, and Zelda should be better able to SFF itself than a Mario game could SFF it, especially since regular Link to the Past way outranks Wind Waker in the series hierarchy.

I'll go big and say 75%.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#105 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/3/2014 9:46:42 PM | message detail
You mean Wii U, not the original Wii.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#106 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 1/3/2014 9:48:32 PM | message detail
Indeed.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#107 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/3/2014 9:55:29 PM | message detail
The combination of Super Mario 3D World and Wind Waker HD helped out the Wii U's ownership, as the Wii U finally broke 30% ownership in the last Wii U ownership poll. By the end of 2014, Wii U will probably have at least 45% ownership for sure.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#108 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/3/2014 10:01:19 PM | message detail
2006 votes at the end of the first hour. Vote totals are much better than the Vita poll, for sure. We are on track to finish between 19000 and 22000 votes, which is a solid improvement over the 14000 votes in the Vita poll.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#109 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/3/2014 11:40:17 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
The combination of Super Mario 3D World and Wind Waker HD helped out the Wii U's ownership, as the Wii U finally broke 30% ownership in the last Wii U ownership poll. By the end of 2014, Wii U will probably have at least 45% ownership for sure.


It'll probably be above 50% because of Smash Bros.
---
Play Pac-Man World 2.
#110 | Nanis23 | Posted 1/4/2014 12:39:51 AM | message detail
I wonder what would be the result if Wind Waker was a Wii U game
Pretty nice vote totals for Wii U though
#111 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/4/2014 9:01:26 PM | message detail
Xbox 360 poll today.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#112 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/4/2014 9:01:53 PM | message detail
I don't understand the logic behind this year's polls at all
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#113 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/4/2014 9:07:35 PM | message detail
Wow, the vote totals are already pretty bad on this Xbox 360 poll, a system with almost twice as much ownership as the Wii U. The Wii U poll had 257 votes at the freeze, while this poll is at 260 votes already.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#114 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/4/2014 9:15:58 PM | message detail | (edited)
KamikazePotato posted...
I don't understand the logic behind this year's polls at all


I'm pretty sure we're getting multiplatform games in the various system polls this year because there aren't as many system exclusive games this year. I can't even think of a single exclusive for the Xbox 360 this year, while TLoU and Tales of Xillia are the only PS3 exclusives I can think of (one of them not being in the PS3 poll at all).
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#115 | Articuno2001 | Posted 1/4/2014 9:40:19 PM | message detail
PS3 was missing Disgaea D2, at the very least.
---
Welcome to the League of raytan, CBIX Guru winner!
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif
#116 | Big Bob | Posted 1/4/2014 9:47:51 PM | message detail
So... Bioshock Infinite is weaker than Ni no Kuni?
---
Guys, check out the Kickstarter for my novel!
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/974650915/ebook-the-new-emperor
#117 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/4/2014 9:52:29 PM | message detail
I think GTA V's performance in the PS3 and 360 polls are misleading. For games that have appeared in more than one poll so far, I think their performance is being influenced by how popular that game was on that specific system. So in the case of GTA in today's poll, most of the GTA V voters own GTA V on the 360 rather than the PS3, while the PS3 owners of GTA V are less likely to vote for GTA V today since they don't have it on 360.

If that is really the case here, than GTA V would perform better in the overall GotY poll when both 360 and PS3 owners are able to vote for GTA V.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#118 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/4/2014 10:05:04 PM | message detail
Vote totals at the end of the first hour:

Xbox 360 - 1847
Wii U - 2006

The Xbox 360 poll is on track to finish between 17000 and 20000 votes. The fact the Xbox 360 poll is getting even less votes than the Wii U poll would suggest that Super Mario 3D World will probably beat GTA V in the overall GotY poll.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#119 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 1/4/2014 10:34:40 PM | message detail
If you only look at the votes from the 5 games in both the PS3 and 360 poll, GTA5 is doing a bit better now relative to the PS3 poll and while Rayman is doing a bit worse and Diablo 3 is doing a lot worse. DmC and AC4 haven't changed much.
---
No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#120 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 1/4/2014 10:54:07 PM | message detail
Big Bob posted...
So... Bioshock Infinite is weaker than Ni no Kuni?

With how bad Bioshock characters did last contest?

Wouldn't surprise me.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#121 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/4/2014 11:31:08 PM | message detail | (edited)
I guess we can throw any chance of BioShock Infinite beating Metroid Prime, Metal Gear Solid 4, or Final Fantasy VIII out the window.

Actually, even the original BioShock would probably get its ass handed to it by all three of those games. Infinite would probably fail to even break 40% on any of them...actually no, MGS4 and FFVIII would probably get anti-votes nowadays that would prevent that.
---
Play Pac-Man World 2.
#122 | WhiteLens | Posted 1/4/2014 11:26:10 PM | message detail
I like how Gears of War: Judgment, the sole known 360 exclusive that came out in 2013, isn't even on the poll.
---
I may be 17th on the Expert Challenge Leaderboard,
But I'm still no match against raytan in the Guru
#123 | Nanis23 | Posted 1/5/2014 12:00:11 AM | message detail
Im telling you GTA was SFF'd jeez
#124 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/5/2014 12:48:05 AM | message detail
WhiteLens posted...
I like how Gears of War: Judgment, the sole known 360 exclusive that came out in 2013, isn't even on the poll.


I suspect that Bacon used the Metacritic scores for each game to decide what games to put into each poll. This would make the most sense here since Tales of Xillia and Disgaea D2 had lower Metacritic scores than all of the other games listed on the PS3 poll. While The Wonderful 101 had a lower Metacritic score than all of the games on the Wii U poll.

And as I expected, Gears of War: Judgment has a lower Metacritic score than all of the other games in today's poll. It's also the only reason why DmC has appeared in the GotY polls despite the fans crapping all over it.

Metacritic score is a terrible metric to use when choosing what games to put into the GotY polls, because GameFAQs has a much different taste in games compared to mainstream gamers. RPGs reign supreme on this site, yet we didn't get Tales of Xillia and Disgaea D2 in the PS3 poll.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#125 | HaRRicH | Posted 1/5/2014 2:11:49 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I think GTA V's performance in the PS3 and 360 polls are misleading. For games that have appeared in more than one poll so far, I think their performance is being influenced by how popular that game was on that specific system. So in the case of GTA in today's poll, most of the GTA V voters own GTA V on the 360 rather than the PS3, while the PS3 owners of GTA V are less likely to vote for GTA V today since they don't have it on 360.

If that is really the case here, than GTA V would perform better in the overall GotY poll when both 360 and PS3 owners are able to vote for GTA V.

Agreed -- I expect GTAV to look better compared to TLoU like it did a month ago than it showed in the PS3-poll.


Speaking of TLoU: if there's another original-GotY for new IPs, I'll be excited to see how big of a blow-out it'll get. TLoU is already one of the biggest first-releases of our generation, if not all-time.....
---
M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX!
http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png
#126 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/5/2014 6:52:15 AM | message detail
Comparing the games that were in both polls GTAV is performing better in the 360 poll like most of you expected. Right now 360 GTA would get between 52-57% against PS3 GTA depending on which game you use.

At best 360 GTAV is expected to get about 35% on The Last of Us. I wonder if there would be a massive change once the distinction of console is removed.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#127 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 1/5/2014 8:11:02 AM | message detail
Hmmm. Sonic Colors and Sonic Generations didn't get into GOTY polls in their years either. They only got 78 and 76/77/77 on metacritic though. Maybe 80 is the cutoff point?

Fable III missed it too and got 75/80.

Metroid Other M made it in with only a 79, though I guess it might be possible the game was at 80 at the time?

...And Epic Mickey made it in with a 73. So much for that. Shame, it was starting to look good.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#128 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 1/5/2014 9:52:37 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
abdou posted...
aren't all polls getting very terrible vote totals anyway?


You're right that the polls were getting very terrible vote totals even before the GotY polls started. Here are our monthly vote totals last year for non-contest polls:

January - 34358 (Minus the GotY polls, the average is 40067)
February - 40052
March - 38303
April - 39852
May - 40006
June - 41234
July - 37621 (extremely limited sample size)
September - 35053
October - 34995
November - 32469
December - 30916

Despite the huge increase in traffic from the Draven matches, we are having our worst vote totals ever. Vote totals were better before the start of our last contest.


ha what a shock
I totally called that happening
#129 | Nanis23 | Posted 1/5/2014 10:18:17 AM | message detail
I don't think even 1% of the people that came during Draven match ever visited this site a week later
#130 | Big Bob | Posted 1/5/2014 11:37:15 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Big Bob posted...
So... Bioshock Infinite is weaker than Ni no Kuni?

With how bad Bioshock characters did last contest?

Wouldn't surprise me.


Oliver was in the last contest too, and he wasn't exactly a bastion of strength.
---
Guys, check out the Kickstarter for my novel!
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/974650915/ebook-the-new-emperor
#131 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 1/5/2014 3:41:20 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I don't think even 1% of the people that came during Draven match ever visited this site a week later


I'm telling you, none of them stayed and a decent chunk of regulars left
#132 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/5/2014 4:25:18 PM | message detail
No matter scores on metacritic and no matter how small the amount of exclusives might be, this is a pretty terrible way of handling these polls. Many games don't get their chance while several games get more than one chance. It's quite ridiculous.
---
*1, *202,000,024 raytan7585
*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket, *3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#133 | Safer_777 | Posted 1/5/2014 4:45:05 PM | message detail
I don't know what system this site uses but it sucks. DMC got in for the PS3! And Judgement which was the only exclusive for 360 didn't got in! Come on now!
---
Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
#134 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/5/2014 5:51:05 PM | message detail
So anyone think we'll get best downloadable game or will we get straight to the final system/game of the year polls?
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#135 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/5/2014 9:00:34 PM | message detail | (edited)
So, here's that PC poll today.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#136 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/5/2014 9:00:39 PM | message detail
Looks like Allen realized he forgot the PC poll.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#137 | Articuno2001 | Posted 1/5/2014 9:03:36 PM | message detail
I have to admit that this poll, unlike most of the others, is actually pretty good.
---
Welcome to the League of raytan, CBIX Guru winner!
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif
#138 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/5/2014 9:08:15 PM | message detail
Thanks to this poll, we get to see Bioshock Infinite in the overall GotY poll. I don't know what other polls we'll get before the overall GotY, but here are several possible ideas:

PlayStation 4
Xbox One
A combined PlayStation 4 and Xbox One poll
Best Downloadable Game
Best Original Game
Best Mobile Game
Best Indie Game
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#139 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/5/2014 9:12:03 PM | message detail
If the GotY poll is something like

Last of Us
Bioshock Infinite
Grand Theft Auto V
ZELDA

Then I favor Zelda.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#140 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/5/2014 9:12:31 PM | message detail
Oh right, forgot 3D World. That's more even.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#141 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/5/2014 9:16:47 PM | message detail
Using a constant Rayman Legends The Last of Us gets over 58% on Super Mario 3D World.

Could Zelda bridge the gap? (assuming 3D World gets removed)
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#142 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/5/2014 10:02:50 PM | message detail
1932 votes at the end of the first hour in this poll. So we're looking at somewhere between 18000 and 21000 votes.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#143 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/6/2014 4:30:20 AM | message detail
How come Mega Man/Zero/Charizard has no pictures on creativename's site? Did no one save them?
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#144 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 1/6/2014 4:53:16 AM | message detail
He probably forgot to save them. But since you pointed this out, I'll go email him with the links to all of the Mega Man/Zero/Charizard match pictures.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#145 | Nanis23 | Posted 1/6/2014 8:58:04 AM | message detail
Oh my god,Bioshock actually winning something!
I'm also shocked by how bad Dota 2 is doing
Like,if it was LoL instead it would probably win (even without rallying)
#146 | HaRRicH | Posted 1/6/2014 9:03:11 AM | message detail
Glad to see The Stanley Parable can avoid the doubling here...didn't expect that.
---
M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX!
http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png
#147 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 1/6/2014 9:04:31 AM | message detail
LoL wouldn't win sans rallying. This site just doesn't give a damn about MMORPGS or MOBAs and never really has.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#148 | MegaWentEvil | Posted 1/6/2014 9:17:27 AM | message detail
How come Mega Man/Zero/Charizard has no pictures on creativename's site? Did no one save them?


They Just Didn't Care.
#149 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 1/6/2014 9:26:00 AM | message detail
What is The Stanley Parable, anyways?

They were near tied when I saw the poll last night so I voted for it solely out of an attempt at preventing Starcraft from getting 2nd.

DID I MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICE?
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]
#150 | Nanis23 | Posted 1/6/2014 9:32:55 AM | message detail
Yes
HOTS is terrible and Blizzard should go out of business because of it and their love story
But hey this is stats discussion topic so let's not go there