Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1184

#201 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/28/2013 11:01:12 AM | message detail
Geostats for what?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#202 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/28/2013 1:24:38 PM | message detail
For the Geostats, of course!
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Congratulation to the 2013 CB9 Guru winner, raytan! But hey, at least I'm #4!
Current Let's Play: Knights of Pen and Paper (see quote)
#203 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/28/2013 1:29:46 PM | message detail
Are you referring to the continent poll we had 2 days ago?

Also, I'm surprised you didn't post in here on the day of the continent poll. I thought you liked continent polls.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#204 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/28/2013 1:45:37 PM | message detail
I was out of town last weekend, so I wasn't able to celebrate the recent continent poll.
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Congratulation to the 2013 CB9 Guru winner, raytan! But hey, at least I'm #4!
Current Let's Play: Knights of Pen and Paper (see quote)
#205 | Safer_777 | Posted 10/29/2013 7:05:23 AM | message detail
The results for Mega Drive are all over the place.
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#206 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 10/30/2013 7:14:05 PM | message detail
Bump
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Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
#207 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/30/2013 8:25:40 PM | message detail
I'm tracking poll updates for today's poll because I expect some very interesting trends involving the last poll option.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#208 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/31/2013 12:35:25 AM | message detail
The last poll option is going absolutely berserk here.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#209 | Safer_777 | Posted 10/31/2013 5:03:19 AM | message detail
This holiday is an American thing only.But I don't understand how this holiday got so popular.
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#210 | Hardcore_Adult | Posted 10/31/2013 5:04:41 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
This holiday is an American thing only.But I don't understand how this holiday got so popular.


Well, it's popular here in the Northern Hemisphere. General reaction Down Under is feh, "It's a Bloody Yank Holiday, they can keep it!"
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The Hardcore Kid
#211 | ffmasterjose | Posted 10/31/2013 6:34:00 AM | message detail
People in Australia call us Yankees too?

ew, they have something in common with the South. Gross.
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Your new reigning and defending Guru Champion, raytan7585!
#212 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/31/2013 8:12:21 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
This holiday is an American thing only.But I don't understand how this holiday got so popular.


It's also popular in Canada based on the poll map results.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#213 | swirIdude (Topic Creator) | Posted 10/31/2013 8:23:24 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
This holiday is an American thing only.But I don't understand how this holiday got so popular.


Kids get free candy. It should be popular everywhere.
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raytan: Champ without picking the champ
#214 | Hardcore_Adult | Posted 10/31/2013 10:20:18 AM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
People in Australia call us Yankees too?

ew, they have something in common with the South. Gross.


No, like us they shorten stuff.

Also, Pretty much Anywhere in the Commonwealth (Jury's out on Canada) will refer to you as a Yank.
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The Hardcore Kid
#215 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/31/2013 10:26:23 AM | message detail
While we don't call them Yanks we do know what it means.
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Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#216 | Nanis23 | Posted 10/31/2013 10:27:03 AM | message detail
Luster,link?
#217 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/31/2013 10:41:27 AM | message detail
Link to what? The poll?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#218 | Nanis23 | Posted 10/31/2013 10:44:12 AM | message detail
You said that you are tracking updates
So I guess to that Google spreadsheet if you are tracking in the same way you did the continet poll
#219 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/31/2013 10:47:36 AM | message detail
Oh, I haven't even set up the spreadsheet yet. But I do have the updates saved on my computer.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#220 | JJH777 | Posted 11/1/2013 12:16:51 AM | message detail
Some impressive Zelda domination here. Pretty weak competition but I still like it's performance. I wonder if it has any shot at winning GotY.
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#221 | Nanis23 | Posted 11/1/2013 12:30:58 AM | message detail
Just..what the hell happened in 2009 when Modern Warfare 2 won game of the year?
Well the DS representative was Kingdom Hearts 358/2 days,which somehow beat Bowser Inside Story (how? this is the best Mario RPG ever made,sorry TTYD) and even beat Pokemon Platinum (something that will not happen again in the new future,XY will wreck everything) and Zelda had Spirit Tracks so yeah...
The Wii representative was New Super Mario Bros. Wii,but it had such a bad competition that I really wonder how it only managed to get 54%

But then MW2 beat Batman Arkham Asylum..and NSMBW totally flopped in the GOTY year,while MW2 beat Uncharted 2
I really don't get what happened there
#222 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/1/2013 1:16:29 AM | message detail
As of today, we are exactly 2 months away from the first GotY polls for this year. While I think GTA V and The Last of Us are well above the rest of the competition, the race for third place is a huge toss up.

Batman: Arkham Origins doesn't have the same kind of critical acclaim that the first 2 Arkham games had, so it probably won't be able to finish 3rd overall in the GotY polls.

Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag will suffer from the yearly release syndrome and perform worse than usual.

Battlefield 4 and Call of Duty: Ghosts - Neither of them will make any splash in the GotY polls as "pure military style shooters" are losing popularity on GameFAQs over the past few years.

Beyond: Two Souls is heavily overshadowed by another PS3 exclusive game known as "The Last of Us", so it definitely won't finish 3rd overall this year.

However, there will have to be a 3rd place finisher in the GotY polls, so it's all about figuring out which game will pull it off. I think Pokemon X/Y actually has a legitimate chance at finishing 3rd overall this year. Last year, Xenoblade finished 2nd overall despite almost losing to Pokemon Black 2/White 2 right before the 9-way GotY poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#223 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/1/2013 1:25:07 AM | message detail
JJH777 posted...
Some impressive Zelda domination here. Pretty weak competition but I still like it's performance. I wonder if it has any shot at winning GotY.


I was about to suggest that it's a shoo-in, but 2011 clearly says otherwise.

On the other hand, Skyward Sword still beat everything other than Skyrim in 2011, though it's possible that Skyrim may have executed a degree of multiplatform SFF on stuff like Arkham City that year. However, Skyrim was huge on this site, nothing released this year can really say that other than MAYBE BioShock Infinite.
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#224 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/1/2013 1:29:25 AM | message detail
I just looked at the Game of the Year polls and pretty much everything from that year other than Skyrim and MAYBE Arkham City was a total flop. This would have helped predicting some stuff in the last contest a lot.

Though it seems weird that Pokemon has never done well in GOTY polls before. It's pretty much a guarantee that this year will break the trend though.
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Play Pac-Man World 2.
#225 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/1/2013 1:52:18 AM | message detail
I don't think we've ever had a portable game winning the GotY. I doubt that will change this year, even if it's Zelda.
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I may be the number 2 Expert for CB9, but I'm no match for Raytan, the number 1 Guru
#226 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/1/2013 1:54:01 AM | message detail
You're right that no portable game has won GotY. But no, it's not happening this year. Either GTA V or The Last of Us will win GotY instead.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#227 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/1/2013 1:54:09 AM | message detail
JJH777 posted...
Some impressive Zelda domination here. Pretty weak competition but I still like it's performance. I wonder if it has any shot at winning GotY.


Even if the Zelda game is the strongest game this year, voters usually will vote for prestige and that kind of stuff for GotY, so I expect Bioshock Infinite, The Last of Us, or GTAV to snag it.

I can see Zelda making the final three or so, though.
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#228 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/1/2013 1:57:23 AM | message detail
Bioshock Infinite is at a huge disadvantage for being released very early in the year, so it will lose a lot of its strength by the time we start the GotY polls.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#229 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 11/1/2013 3:51:45 AM | message detail | (edited)
I'm thinking even Wind Waker HD would be stronger than A Link Between Worlds for goty. It's hard to trust a portable game not named Pokemon.
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#230 | Nanis23 | Posted 11/1/2013 4:14:38 AM | message detail
You are seriously thinking that Pokemon doesn't have first place locked? really?
It might be tough against GTA V but I don't think the Last of Us has any shot at first

Yeah I know GOTY polls are different from Character polls but..just watch
#231 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/1/2013 7:38:09 AM | message detail
I don't get it... How does Grand Theft Auto do well in GOTY polls, yet the characters stink it up when the contests come along? I'm asking because the last time a GTA character did anything in these was 2005.
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#232 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/1/2013 9:48:12 AM | message detail
Because people don't really give a s*** about the characters. Look at Dragonborn, who stunk yet still probably did better than any GTA character would've in his situation.
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#233 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/1/2013 11:15:38 AM | message detail | (edited)
And I had the impression GameFAQs stopped caring for GTA... (At least, having seen how GTA tends to do in games contests)
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#234 | Safer_777 | Posted 11/2/2013 7:15:43 AM | message detail
I didn't knew that so few people choose always a female character.I do this all the time.I wonder why though.
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#235 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/2/2013 7:18:54 AM | message detail
GTA isn't about characters.

GTA is about spawning tanks and helicopters and rocket launchers and flying as high as you can go and jumping out into a swarm of cops and national guard.
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#236 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/3/2013 12:42:58 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
And I had the impression GameFAQs stopped caring for GTA... (At least, having seen how GTA tends to do in games contests)


That's true, but even back when GTA was popular on this site, you had back-to-back contests where Vice City's main character struggled with Donkey Kong while Vice City itself got 47% on Super Smash Bros. Melee.

Thinking about that, it's a wonder Vice City wasn't the favorite against Metroid Prime in 2009. Of course, Vice City probably would have lost to Prime if Paper Mario wasn't there, and the Game of the Decade stats have Prime getting 66% on Vice City (those same stats however also have Prime getting 56% on Kingdom Hearts, even though it got 39% on Kingdom Hearts in Game of the Decade. I have to wonder if the Trilogy re-release or possible buzz over what would become the series' equivalent of MGS2 helped Prime a lot).
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#237 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/3/2013 1:45:53 AM | message detail | (edited)
Given that GotD indicates Paper Mario is decently strong, that Kingdom Hearts/Vice City loss doesn't look nearly as bad. Prime wouldn't have won that match regardless (not back then anyways) but it would have easily beaten Vice City were it not LFFed. I doubt Vice City would have even beaten Paper Mario 1-on-1; it certainly didn't look capable of doing so in GotD.

But more importantly, Fallout 3's quarter of the bracket is significantly overrated in the stats due to Brawl's late-contest collapse. It improved on its 2009 performance against Brawl by 10%. Fallout 3 might have been a bit stronger than 2009 indicates thanks to New Vegas if nothing else but the results of taking its performance on Brawl at face value are just silly:

-As mentioned, Metroid Prime is easily above Kingdom Hearts in the stats despite that in 2009, even giving it 100% of Paper Mario's votes wouldn't have been enough to put it over KH1.
-Metroid Prime is on par with Wind Waker in the stats despite having lost cleanly to the latter in 2004.
-Half-Life 2 is on-par with Resident Evil 4 despite the former getting 60-40ed in 2009.
-Half Life 2 is expected to 55-45 Portal despite the latter 60-40ing FFXII in GotD while in 2009 HL2 barely even beat FFXII.
-God of War is above Oblivion despite having lost to it in 2009.
-GTAIII is on par with Diablo II in the stats despite losing to it in 2009 and that series in general having continued to look bad in contests. It's projected to get 57+% on any of the other GTAs too.

Some of these you could maybe argue are reasonable shifts, but when put together there's a pretty clear pattern.

Other thought I had while making this post: I'd really like to see a Super Mario RPG vs. Paper Mario match.
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#238 | Safer_777 | Posted 11/3/2013 2:57:39 AM | message detail
If you see the results for 2001 you will see that there were some people that didn't had PC's!
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#239 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/3/2013 2:10:56 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Given that GotD indicates Paper Mario is decently strong, that Kingdom Hearts/Vice City loss doesn't look nearly as bad. Prime wouldn't have won that match regardless (not back then anyways) but it would have easily beaten Vice City were it not LFFed. I doubt Vice City would have even beaten Paper Mario 1-on-1; it certainly didn't look capable of doing so in GotD.

But more importantly, Fallout 3's quarter of the bracket is significantly overrated in the stats due to Brawl's late-contest collapse. It improved on its 2009 performance against Brawl by 10%. Fallout 3 might have been a bit stronger than 2009 indicates thanks to New Vegas if nothing else but the results of taking its performance on Brawl at face value are just silly:

-As mentioned, Metroid Prime is easily above Kingdom Hearts in the stats despite that in 2009, even giving it 100% of Paper Mario's votes wouldn't have been enough to put it over KH1.
-Metroid Prime is on par with Wind Waker in the stats despite having lost cleanly to the latter in 2004.
-Half-Life 2 is on-par with Resident Evil 4 despite the former getting 60-40ed in 2009.
-Half Life 2 is expected to 55-45 Portal despite the latter 60-40ing FFXII in GotD while in 2009 HL2 barely even beat FFXII.
-God of War is above Oblivion despite having lost to it in 2009.
-GTAIII is on par with Diablo II in the stats despite losing to it in 2009 and that series in general having continued to look bad in contests. It's projected to get 57+% on any of the other GTAs too.

Some of these you could maybe argue are reasonable shifts, but when put together there's a pretty clear pattern.

Other thought I had while making this post: I'd really like to see a Super Mario RPG vs. Paper Mario match.


-I think Metroid Prime would easily improve on its 2009 performance against Kingdom Hearts, though outright victory is still very uncertain and likely pushing it. Prime got a re-release since BGE2009, hype for a certain game might have brought a lot of new people to the Metroid series, and Kingdom Hearts has become a giant anti-vote magnet since BGE2009.
-Half-Life 2 may have boosted in between games contests due to...free Portal giving Valve more exposure? I dunno.
-It's very likely that Final Fantasy XII dropped in between contests. Balthier was a total turd in 2010, and the game itself barely got 56% on CRISIS CORE in Round 1. I'm not really sure if Half-Life 2 or Metroid Prime would fail to break 60% on freaking Crisis Core, especially when considering how poorly Zack Fair did last contest. In fact, Balthier just seems to perform worse and worse with each new contest, making me believe that FFXII has dropped even more in popularity since GOTD.
-To be fair God of War got a re-release in between contests, plus God of War III. You could say that Kratos flopping in 2010 could mean something, but for all you know God of War itself gets respect while Kratos does not.
-I have a weird theory that GTAIII gets considerably less anti-voted than every other game in its series and thrives largely on respect voting, and this was actually a popular theory during GOTD IIRC. So perhaps moving away from 4-ways helped GTAIII while hurting the other GTAs which rely more on a dedicated fanbase? I'll just quote Ulti (of all people):

once upon a time, GTA was actually a good series; now Rock$* just rehashes GTA3 with different color tones and the fans eat it up like drones

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Play Pac-Man World 2.
#240 | spooky96 | Posted 11/3/2013 8:13:20 PM | message detail
Am I drunk or has the poll been delayed >_>
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#241 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/3/2013 8:28:22 PM | message detail
This is a 25 hour poll because of the North American DST switch earlier today where the clocks went back one hour.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#242 | spooky96 | Posted 11/3/2013 8:35:08 PM | message detail
Oh alrightt.
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Posting from The Other World
Ostrich Overdrive. Best Boss Ever.
#243 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/3/2013 8:36:08 PM | message detail
Although I did notice that the poll graphs stopped updating after the 24 hour mark. I guess I'll have to send in a feedback ticket tomorrow to get the final hour of poll results added to the poll graphs.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
#244 | Safer_777 | Posted 11/4/2013 10:46:38 AM | message detail
Gametrailers did a top 10 of FF characters.Sephiroth is number 10 and Cloud isn't even in it!But Kefka is 1 there!So that is something.
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#245 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/4/2013 11:03:42 AM | message detail
Are most of those characters from old FF?
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#246 | Safer_777 | Posted 11/4/2013 11:10:08 AM | message detail | (edited)
About about equal if you consider the old FF games to be before FF7.Meaning the old ones to be FF1 to FF6.
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#247 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/4/2013 11:48:30 AM | message detail | (edited)
Considering Kefka is obviously the #1 Final Fantasy character now, it makes perfect sense. He's stronger than Squirtle and Pikachu, after all!

e: Kefka is literally stronger than Cloud now.
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#248 | Safer_777 | Posted 11/4/2013 11:40:10 AM | message detail
Even as a huge FF 7 fan,I have to agree that Kefka is awesome.I mean he is a villain that manages to become a god and destroy the world too!How many do that?
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#249 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/4/2013 2:38:06 PM | message detail
He's also super insane.

He has like NO depth though. Sephiroth honestly feels like a polar opposite of Kefka to me, at least where I am in FFVII which is admittedly not far into the game.
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Play Pac-Man World 2.
#250 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2013 10:39:17 PM | message detail
Poll updates and trend charts for the Halloween poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdFYtc0dWaDRWRzRNUEtKSW9DZy1lOVE&gid=1

I had all of the updates on my computer already, but it was a matter of getting them transferred over to my spreadsheet. Also, I was being lazy over the past couple of days.

Anyways, let's focus on the option with the most extreme trends first.

"No, it's not something people do" started out with a very terrible board vote, but it managed to gain about 3.5% over the rest of the Power Hour. Still, the Power Hour was its worst hour. When the night vote kicked in, it was slowly gaining strength as we headed deeper into the night vote. It performed best during the TDZ, or the last 2 hours of the night vote. Then the morning vote kicks in and it starts dropping off here. The DSV and the early part of the ASV was slightly below average here. When Europe starts going to sleep, it started dropping off even more.

Because "No, I'm too busy this year" managed to hold the lead over "No, it's not something people do" until 5:50 AM, the Lead columns only show "No, it's not something people do" getting 3 cuts against "No, I'm just too reserved". In reality, "No, it's not something people do" managed to get a total of 19 cuts against "No, I'm just too reserved". The first cut happened at 2:50 AM. "No, it's not something people do" also managed to win a single hour against "No, I'm just too reserved".

"No, I'm just too reserved" started off with a very strong board vote and Power Hour. Its best hour happened during the ASV, though. After the Power Hour ended, it was slowly dropping off with the night vote, which was its worst time period. When the morning vote started, it began to recover from its terrible night vote. Overall, it had a very average DSV. After the ASV started, it began performing even better compared to its DSV. It dropped off slightly during the SNV, though.

The first 3 options all had very similar trends to "No, I'm just too reserved". The only real difference here was that "Yes, I'm in costume" was dropping off slightly during the later part of the ASV when a lot of people would be outside in their costumes (most Halloween related stuff usually happens around 5:00-9:00 PM EST in the US).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!