Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1184

#51 | pjbasis | Posted 10/9/2013 11:13:49 PM | message detail
Squirtle > Mudkip > Totodile > Piplup > Froakie > Oshawott
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#52 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/9/2013 11:16:28 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Squirtle > Mudkip > Totodile > Piplup > Froakie > Oshawott


Yeah, that's what I'm guessing.

I'm curious to see just how well Mudkip does.
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#53 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/9/2013 11:43:24 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Squirtle > Mudkip > Totodile > Piplup > Froakie > Oshawott


That's probably what I would have predicted here.

Mudkip will be interesting, just to see if he gets a rally from 4chan.
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#54 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/10/2013 1:25:32 AM | message detail
I just checked out /vp/ and there is a topic about today's poll right now.
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#55 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/10/2013 2:38:31 AM | message detail
I'll be bold and predict Piplup > Totodile.
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#56 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 10/10/2013 2:49:13 AM | message detail
Wow, Chikorita is terrible.
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#57 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/10/2013 2:51:01 AM | message detail
GSC starters are terrible. That's probably the one thing RSE has over than gen.
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Congratulation to the 2013 CB9 Guru winner, raytan! But hey, at least I'm #4!
Current Let's Play: Knights of Pen and Paper (see quote)
#58 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/10/2013 3:35:03 AM | message detail
Trend charts and poll updates for yesterday's poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdFdCYnJSeHhueW1uOVEtS3hGQTEwR1E&gid=3

I decided to track poll updates and do trend charts just to see what they would look like. Obviously I wasn't expecting any kind of strong trends here since there's going to be a large amount of SFF/LFF, plus this is a poll that is limited exclusively to just one fanbase.

Charmander started off with a weak Power Hour, but it was gaining percentage throughout the night vote and morning vote. It dropped off during the ASV before going back up with the SNV.

Cyndaquil had the exact opposite of Charmander as far as trends go.

Torchic had the same trends as Charmander.

Chimchar was terrible in the board vote and SNV and performed best during the early morning vote.

Tepig was the most ASV oriented option here, along with having a good board vote. Tepig performed worst during the SNV.

Fennekin had a very good board vote and Power Hour and also did well at night, but it sucked with the morning vote and SNV.
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#59 | Safer_777 | Posted 10/10/2013 4:22:12 AM | message detail
I like how in yesterday's poll a starter that no-one has played with beat a starter from another game. That seems so ridiculous.
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#60 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/10/2013 6:34:14 AM | message detail
Well, Bulbasaur has shown itself to be weaker than Squirtle and Charmander based on this poll. The real surprise is Snivy beating Turtwig. Also, Treecko is beating Chikorita, which gives me hope that Mudkip should beat Totodile tomorrow.

Chikorita performing badly is not that surprising, even taking into account nostalgic votes. Chikorita is the worst starters in terms of in-game use.

Turtwig is ahead of Snivy now, but while Snivy has Smugleaf it too was a relative bad starter.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#61 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/10/2013 6:35:15 AM | message detail
I like how in yesterday's poll a starter that no-one has played with beat a starter from another game. That seems so ridiculous.

Must be the Fire/Fighting SFF.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest
#62 | WhiteLens | Posted 10/10/2013 7:15:46 AM | message detail
If there's one thing that this poll shows, it's that the Smugleaf meme has already died down.
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#63 | Nanis23 | Posted 10/10/2013 9:10:35 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I like how in yesterday's poll a starter that no-one has played with beat a starter from another game. That seems so ridiculous.


Hm?
Based upon design and hype
There is no problem with that
#64 | Nanis23 | Posted 10/10/2013 9:35:01 AM | message detail
And it would be nice if we get Chamander/Squirtle/Bulbasaur poll (makes the Snake/Link mathc not be a total waste)
#65 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/10/2013 10:18:13 AM | message detail
It would be awesome to have a Chamander/Squirtle/Bulbasaur poll, but we won't be able to run that poll before X/Y is released since tomorrow will be the water Pokemon poll and the 2 polls after the "Got Pokemon X/Y?" poll will not be related to Pokemon at all.
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#66 | Nanis23 | Posted 10/10/2013 10:20:43 AM | message detail
Those "Got X" polls are always on the launch days? if they are..then damn
#67 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/10/2013 10:30:16 AM | message detail
Yes, they're always on the launch day.

Also, we just got a vote from someone in Iran and they voted for Chikorita. Whoever voted from Iran visited GameFAQs using "m.gamefaqs.com" since "www.gamefaqs.com" is blocked in Iran. Though it's still possible to visit GameFAQs by using "m.gamefaqs.com" instead.
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#68 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 10/10/2013 1:54:57 PM | message detail
WhiteLens posted...
If there's one thing that this poll shows, it's that the Smugleaf meme has already died down.
Oh? I think Snivy is doing insanely well considering how Tepig did yesterday.
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#69 | swirIdude (Topic Creator) | Posted 10/10/2013 2:08:22 PM | message detail
A Pokemon SFF poll isn't going to give us an accurate picture of Bulbasaur's strength, nor does it tell us if he'd beat Charmander, who is based on another Pokemon SFF poll. So let's not make assumptions.
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#70 | Nanis23 | Posted 10/10/2013 2:14:53 PM | message detail
Im really really sad that we won't have that poll

Anyway I think Totodile will beat Mudkip
The difference in power between GSC and RSE is too big,Mukip meme powers won't help
Its going to be easy 1>2>3>4>5>6 but with a chance for Oshawott to get last
#71 | Haste_2 | Posted 10/10/2013 5:16:11 PM | message detail
I think pjbasis' speculation about fire types is correct. Not sure if that means Bulbasaur could beat Charmander, though. Interesting how the Bulbasaur/Treecko proportion is pretty close to that of Charmander/Cyndaquil.
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#72 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/10/2013 8:02:08 PM | message detail
Mudkip currently losing to Totodile, but a 4chan rally could easily put Mudkip ahead.
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#73 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/10/2013 8:11:02 PM | message detail
Mudkip gained almost 2% there, but it's not a rally since I didn't see anything on /v/ or /vp/.
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#74 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/10/2013 8:48:39 PM | message detail
Sounds like Mudkip was recovering from a terrible board vote, which explains why it gained about 3% during the 2 updates right after the freeze.
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#75 | Nanis23 | Posted 10/10/2013 10:13:42 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Im really really sad that we won't have that poll

Anyway I think Totodile will beat Mudkip
The difference in power between GSC and RSE is too big,Mukip meme powers won't help
Its going to be easy 1>2>3>4>5>6 but with a chance for Oshawott to get last


Sup
#76 | pjbasis | Posted 10/11/2013 12:53:18 AM | message detail
I only thought Mudkip would do better if it got more apathy/joke votes from non pokemon fans.

Though I guess Squirtle will soak those up pretty well anyway. Thought Froakie could pull a Fennekin. Or maybe Oshawott would pull a Tepig and just be terrible.
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#77 | pjbasis | Posted 10/11/2013 12:54:49 AM | message detail
Doubt Bulbasaur would beat Squirtle either but glad to see him outdo his percentage.

Bulbasaur > Cloud consider it CALLED
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##LongLiveraytan
#78 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/11/2013 1:01:52 AM | message detail
Despite this result, I still think Squirtle is stronger than Bulbasaur. Grass doesn't have any real competition besides Bulbasaur.

Squirtle has to deal with Totodile, Mudkip, and Piplup, which appear to be stronger than Chikorita, Treecko, and Turtwig.
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#79 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 10/11/2013 1:03:42 AM | message detail
Piplup>Totodile would make because Piplup is more iconic, but GSC wins on this site, so it was a long shot.

Thought Mudkip would be above Totodile though.
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#80 | Safer_777 | Posted 10/11/2013 2:21:23 AM | message detail
Squirtle is so strong. Might even be the strongest original starter!
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#81 | pirate109 | Posted 10/11/2013 2:49:06 AM | message detail | (edited)
Pretty sure Charmander and Squirtle would wreck Bulbasaur, sadly

If that match happened I'd predict:

Charmander 39%
Squirtle 37%
Bulbasaur 24%
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#82 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/11/2013 2:58:32 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Im really really sad that we won't have that poll

Anyway I think Totodile will beat Mudkip
The difference in power between GSC and RSE is too big,Mukip meme powers won't help
Its going to be easy 1>2>3>4>5>6 but with a chance for Oshawott to get last


Sup


Good call!

So who would be stronger, Charmander or Charizard?
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Congratulation to the 2013 CB9 Guru winner, raytan! But hey, at least I'm #4!
Current Let's Play: Knights of Pen and Paper (see quote)
#83 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/11/2013 3:53:58 AM | message detail
Trend charts for yesterday's poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdFdCYnJSeHhueW1uOVEtS3hGQTEwR1E&gid=3

Bulbasaur had very similar trends to Charmander - terrible board vote and Power Hour, below average night vote, above average morning vote, average ASV, and strong SNV.

Chikorita did best during the board vote and Power Hour, but it had an average night vote and was slightly above during the early morning vote. The late morning vote was the worst time period. It had an average ASV and below average SNV.

Treecko had a good board vote and Power Hour. The night vote was slightly above average. It had a terrible morning vote, although it manages to have a fairly average ASV. The SNV was easily the worst time period here.

Turtwig had a below average board vote, but managed to recover from the board vote to finish strong at the end of the board vote. Average night vote, late morning vote, and ASV. It performed best during the early morning vote and worst during the SNV.

Snivy had an average above board vote and night vote, but performed best during the Power Hour overall. It performed worst during the early morning vote, ASV, and SNV. The late morning vote was fairly average.

Chespin is fairly balanced over the course of the day, except for an above average late morning vote and below average SNV.
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#84 | Safer_777 | Posted 10/11/2013 4:02:40 AM | message detail
Charizard is stronger than Charmander and if a poll happened between the 3 original starters it would be like this:Squirtle>Charmander>Bulbasaur.
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#85 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 10/11/2013 9:55:28 AM | message detail
Hard to know how seriously to take all of these polls but:
-Bulbasaur probably isn't going to be significantly weaker than Squirtle. Maybe it wouldn't have beaten Cloud but it wouldn't have lost to Dante or anything.
-Mudkip probably shouldn't be brought back. I think it'd still do better than Totodile against outside competition but by enough to care? Nah.
-We don't need to see any other starters from non-RBY games in a contest.
-The GotD x-stats, the favorite generation poll, and all three starter polls all support RSE > DPP. Looking hard to deny at this point.
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#86 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/11/2013 10:51:18 AM | message detail
Based on the 3 starter polls, here is how I would rank each generation's starters in terms of contest strength:

Charmander > Squirtle > Bulbasaur
Cyndaquil > Totodile > Chikorita
Mudkip > Treecko > Torchic
Piplup > Turtwig > Chimchar
Snivy > Oshawott > Tepig
Froakie > Fennekin > Chespin

I don't think anyone would disagree with Gen 1's ranking.

Although Treecko did better against Bulbasaur than Mudkip did against Squirtle, you'd have to consider that Bulbasaur is also weaker than Squirtle to begin with. Also, Mudkip's poll has tougher competition to deal with compared to Treecko's poll.

Piplup over Turtwig was based off the same reasoning that I had Mudkip over Treecko, even though Piplup did almost 3% worse than Turtwig.

Gen 5 and 6 starters were based solely on their raw percentages in the 3 starter polls.
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#87 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 10/11/2013 10:58:58 AM | message detail
Luster you're forgetting the people who think it's a Character BATTLE, so Charmander > Bulbasaur > Squirtle > Charmander

See: Pikachu beating Squirtle for this exact same reason, duh.
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#88 | Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2013 11:02:15 AM | message detail
An SFF fest isn't enough for me to put the kibosh on Mudkip from a contest strength standpoint. Mudkip isn't interesting for its base strength, which would only be slightly above 'random Pokemon midcard', but the combination of that with the potential for large concerted rallies in a contest with ever-dwindling vote totals.

I suppose you could make the argument that it doesn't seem to be catching much of that today, but a non-contest poll of Water starters is hardly something conducive to rallying compared to something 'silly' like Mudkip > Mario.

Note that we don't ever need to see that result from a perspective of 'can we not make the contests completely awful', but from a purely analytical perspective Mudkip still has that same danger level.
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#89 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 10/11/2013 11:03:26 AM | message detail
Forget Mudkip.

Let's get Bidoof back in.

Bidoof vs. Vincent who ya got?
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#90 | WhiteLens | Posted 10/11/2013 12:41:56 PM | message detail
Woohoo, won $25!

Finally won a prize from a contest after 11 years!

I officially can't hate this contest.
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#91 | Nanis23 | Posted 10/11/2013 12:55:32 PM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Forget Mudkip.

Let's get Bidoof back in.

Bidoof vs. Vincent who ya got?


At this time of the year? with XY release in less than 24 hours?
Bidoof,easily
#92 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/11/2013 2:20:34 PM | message detail
Grats on the cash!
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Congratulation to the 2013 CB9 Guru winner, raytan! But hey, at least I'm #4!
Current Let's Play: Knights of Pen and Paper (see quote)
#93 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/11/2013 4:26:30 PM | message detail
For Pokemon RSE and DPP, we didn't have a "Got Game?" poll on the day of the US release, so we have to use these 2 polls to get an idea of what kind of ownership we got on the launch day.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1198
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2727

Based on those polls, RSE would have been expected to have 26.19% ownership on the launch day. DPP performed slightly better, with an expected ownership rate of 28.50% on the launch day.

For Pokemon Black/White and Black/White 2, we have these 2 polls:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4268
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4865

BW had 25.93% ownership on the launch day while BW2 had 13.87% ownership. Obviously BW2 wasn't going to get the same kind of ownership that BW had since it was a sequel to a mainline game. I do expect X/Y to have a better ownership rate than BW2 got on the launch day.
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#94 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 10/11/2013 6:43:55 PM | message detail
will Froakie get 3%?
stay tuned!
#95 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 10/11/2013 6:58:06 PM | message detail
Mudkip getting so much of its strength from rallying is part of why I don't think it's going to be an interesting entrant at this point. Charizard and Pikachu suddenly got huge boosts when they were threatened near the end of their Round 3 matches (though Mega Man had major rallying of his own to fight back with) and 4chan went all out for Squirtle.

Every pokemon with decent strength has effectively become Mudkip, so if it's a choice between which Mudkip to nominate, why choose the one with the only thing going for it being that it's Mudkip?

...Not that I'm too interested in nominating pokemon anymore. Squirtle being elite-level in particular broke me. Squirtle => Charizard shouldn't be the case anymore than Yuffie => Tifa. Kudos to anyone who called the fanbase being that dronish. Given that, it's hard to be happy about even the pokemon I like winning. Mega Man doing almost as well as Snake against if anything a stronger Pokemon duo sealed the deal on their terrible dronishness.
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#96 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 10/11/2013 7:02:02 PM | message detail
Mega Mewtwo Y vs Mega Charizard X vs Mega Blastroise
who ya got
#97 | Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2013 7:21:57 PM | message detail | (edited)
Mega Man's tangling with Pokemon was... very interesting to say the least. Taken at face value and setting Charizard equal to the rest of the Pokes, Zero-leeched Mega Man is literally stronger than Cloud. And then the way he dismantled the Mewtwo/Pikachu duo in the bonus match paired with the absolutely atrocious votals... I got the distinct impression that Mega Man was asserting the Hierarchy (as in, the Nintendo hierarchy) against Pokemon this year.

Which seems crazy considering Pokemon's resistance to SFF - but they're not immune to getting the short stick. Zelda more or less proved that. It also feels like Mega Man should have done better against Samus but by the same token I also get the impression that Samus turned the Hierarchy tables on MM once they went head to head. After all, she SFFed Zelda.

...more than anything Samus's raw power and growth in being able to assert SFF over Nintendo and Ninty entities is really making me wonder what the percentages in Mario/Samus would be today in a 1v1.

Edit: Eh, on second thought I think I'm not giving Samus enough credit a la 2006; her raw percentage on Mega Man wasn't exactly inspiring to begin with and he was way far behind prior to this year. If she did score any SFF on the Blue Bomber I doubt it did little more than counteract his mild bandwagon.
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#98 | Doctor_Vodka | Posted 10/11/2013 7:34:01 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Mega Man's tangling with Pokemon was... very interesting to say the least. Taken at face value and setting Charizard equal to the rest of the Pokes, Zero-leeched Mega Man is literally stronger than Cloud. And then the way he dismantled the Mewtwo/Pikachu duo in the bonus match paired with the absolutely atrocious votals... I got the distinct impression that Mega Man was asserting the Hierarchy (as in, the Nintendo hierarchy) against Pokemon this year.

Which seems crazy considering Pokemon's resistance to SFF - but they're not immune to getting the short stick. Zelda more or less proved that. It also feels like Mega Man should have done better against Samus but by the same token I also get the impression that Samus turned the Hierarchy tables on MM once they went head to head. After all, she SFFed Zelda.

...more than anything Samus's raw power and growth in being able to assert SFF over Nintendo and Ninty entities is really making me wonder what the percentages in Mario/Samus would be today in a 1v1.

Edit: Eh, on second thought I think I'm not giving Samus enough credit a la 2006; her raw percentage on Mega Man wasn't exactly inspiring to begin with and he was way far behind prior to this year. If she did score any SFF on the Blue Bomber I doubt it did little more than counteract his mild bandwagon.


omg you are such a nerd
#99 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 10/11/2013 8:01:13 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
will Froakie get 3%?
stay tuned!


and he does!
(barely)
#100 | Safer_777 | Posted 10/12/2013 3:19:14 AM | message detail
I thought more people would play Pokemon. Now around 44% say they don't play. However around 32% said they have played at least 1 Pokemon game so that means that the play rate of the Pokemon games is around 88%. I guess it must be the highest of the famous series around here?
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