GameFAQs Contests

unwinnable match against voltch curses
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png

http://www.bracketmaker.com/tmenu.cfm?tid=448474&tclass=BTSGE%20Fall%202013

ok here we go.
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Raytan wins!

So many things wrong in that last post, KH, that it's not worth wasting my time refuting it. That wasn't your usual self. I'm not sure what the big argument was about, anyway, since Subby > Scorp is all we need to know, or what we can know. Scorp's worth 46% on Subby! No, he's worth 43% on Subby! lol, let's be done with that. ;)
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raytan stole my sig 'cause he's awesome at predicting GameFAQs contests! Grrrrrrr, I will get my revenge!

The question is how many Spring Breeze Dancin's is Scorpion worth compared to Sub-Zero?
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Congratulation to the 2013 CB9 Guru winner, raytan! But hey, at least I'm #4!
Current Let's Play: Knights of Pen and Paper (see quote)

Scorp beats 50 SPDs. Subby beats 500. Raiden beats 500 of them + 5000 Chesters!

Oh, and I did a bunch of number crunching and it seems Samus is worth 55.5% on Mario.

If three characters, all equal strength, but two are dealing with SFF/LFF, then taking out one of the leechers will give about 35-40% of its votes, it seems. At least, the two situations I tested, one involving Tidus/Vivi and the other, how Link behaves either with Mario/Samus or without Mario/Samus. Of course, some situations can be more extreme.... 85% of Sephiroth's votes went to Cloud relative to Snake in the 2008 semis. Even if Cloud and Snake were of equal strength, Cloud steals over 80%.

If Crono gets 80% of Magus' votes.... he beats Pikachu with 50.5%. Crono > Cloud?
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raytan stole my sig 'cause he's awesome at predicting GameFAQs contests! Grrrrrrr, I will get my revenge!

Oh wow, we've been getting some terrible vote totals lately. Out of the last 4 polls, 2 of them got under 30000 votes and yesterday's poll barely broke 30000 votes. Meanwhile, today's poll looks like it will also get less than 30000 votes. I hate some of the recent polls we've been getting lately.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!

Oh, and I did a bunch of number crunching and it seems Samus is worth 55.5% on Mario.

Welcome to the League of 2004.

If Crono gets 80% of Magus' votes.... he beats Pikachu with 50.5%. Crono > Cloud?

Crono/Magus is probably even more extreme overlap than Cloud/Sephiroth, because the CT fanbase is less broad than FFVII. Add in the fact that Crono was saddled with a day match, and he's probably looking at around 52-53% on Pikachu in 24 hours 1v1. But while I wish Crono > Cloud were true, Squirtle was heavily rallied against Cloud- like to the point where that match is probably 55/45 without the rallying.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rreykKmmIhU&feature=c4-overview&list=UUTClyIBtsqJ23Wd6bzClD_g&hd=1

Sir Chris's highlights from "The Show"!
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Raytan wins!

So in this contest we had the biggest succesful comeback ever, Draven beating Jak. Okay but did we break closest wire to wire match ever? I think Snake VS Kefka VS Glados did that?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

SuperNiceDog posted...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rreykKmmIhU&feature=c4-overview&list=UUTClyIBtsqJ23Wd6bzClD_g&hd=1

Sir Chris's highlights from "The Show"!

I am legitimately scared.
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Lavonte David, Pushing Tampa Bay to defeat
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!

red sox 777 posted...

Welcome to the League of 2004.

Crono/Magus is probably even more extreme overlap than Cloud/Sephiroth, because the CT fanbase is less broad than FFVII. Add in the fact that Crono was saddled with a day match, and he's probably looking at around 52-53% on Pikachu in 24 hours 1v1. But while I wish Crono > Cloud were true, Squirtle was heavily rallied against Cloud- like to the point where that match is probably 55/45 without the rallying.

Yeah, it WOULD be interesting to see Mario vs. Samus again... I'm sure Mario still pulls it off.

Cloud should, of course, be the favorite, unless we get decent indications that Crono beats Cloud like 55/45 or more.

As for extrapolated Cloud vs. Crono... don't forget Pikachu is apparently stronger than Squirtle. If Crono really can get 52% on Pikachu, then that could mean nearly 55% on Squirtle.

Nothing convincing for Crono's advantage, but I'm still liking Crono's chances!

Okay....which is more likely to be true, INDIRECTLY?

Crono > Cloud
or
Mario > Mega Man
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raytan stole my sig 'cause he's awesome at predicting GameFAQs contests! Grrrrrrr, I will get my revenge!

Mario > Megaman

I think that's probably still more likely than not, actually. MM was still a good ways away from Samus despite having Charizard in there, who should hurt Samus slightly more.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.

Pikachu being stronger than Squirtle is definitely possible but a close SFF match between the two is not particularly good proof of that.

Personally, I'd guess Pikachu might be slightly stronger in natural strength but that Squirtle has a lot more rallying potential because Squirtle beating people is just a lot funnier. Pikachu is the mascot of an extremely popular series, it's not intuitively that strange for him to be smashing faces in. But among RBY starters, Squirtle is second-rate. Charizard trumped Squirtle and his evolutions in popularity in both the anime and the games, and Squirtle doesn't even look cool. Yet those very qualities probably got Squirtle a good number of troll votes and more importantly 4chan rallies - especially considering his opponent was from FFVII. It made Squirtle a force to be reckoned with, particularly when poke-drones meant he wouldn't have been much weaker than Pikachu or Charizard regardless.

I think Kirby hulking up to contend in matches that should be way out of his league works on a lot of the same principle. Luigi/Bowser/Yoshi/Ganondorf/Zelda doing that stuff probably wouldn't be funny to those without contest knowledge - those five are iconic characters of highly popular series. But the idea of Kirby doing so, especially with some of those pics he gets? Hilarious.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]

red sox 777 posted...

Mario > Megaman

I think that's probably still more likely than not, actually. MM was still a good ways away from Samus despite having Charizard in there, who should hurt Samus slightly more.

It was actually Red there instead of Charizard, but same idea I guess?

Either way, honestly Samus wasn't too impressive last contest after her blowout wins in the first two rounds. Struggling to break 55% on a Final Fantasy VII character and 53% on one of the most infamously ignored characters of the last few years is not inspiring. Mario would have definitely rolled over her if he made it that far.

To be fair however, I guess Mega Man was doing well all contest up until he lost to Samus. I just don't see any real reason for Mega Man to be stronger. At best, the SSB4 announcement should simply negate him being neglected for the last few years I would think.
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Play Pac-Man World 2.

www.thengamer.com/
This Account Has Been Suspended
Wat

And now, because I've continued to tweak my hapless attempts at adjusted standings and because I can... Kay Aitch Presents Adjusted Extrapolated Statistics for the Noble Nine circa 2013:

The Standings

Link - 50.00%
Solid Snake - 46.52%
Samus Aran - 42.71%
Mario - 42.02%
Cloud Strife - 41.12%
Mega Man - 39.64%
Crono - 39.44%
Sephiroth - 37.83%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 37.67%

Key Assumptions
- If this doesn't seem like your ranking of how the NN stacks up these days, don't worry - it's not mine, either. This is as best as I could make sense of the data.
- These standings are meant to be 'pre-rallying'. If you think a rally could put one NNer over another, you could be very easily correct.
- (non-bandwagon/rallies) Mewtwo = Squirtle = Pikachu; with any difference between them being chalked up to SFF. Pokemon is estimated at 38.65% on Link 2013. This is important because most of the relations to Snake run through Snake/Squirtle/Pikachu with a 70/30 overlap for Pokemon.
- Crono is estimated at 51% on Pokemon (Pikachu) in a 1v1 24 hour match, and Mario/Samus/Mega Man all go through the Mario/Crono/X bonus match. I left that match as is, assuming that whatever overlap X had with Mario canceled with the day/night disparity.
- Mario is estimated at 54.5% on R2 Vivi, with the assumption of R2 Vivi = R3 Vivi (R2 rallies = R3 bandwagon) and 70/30 overlap for Mario/Ganondorf & Vivi/Squall. This left him uncomfortably close to Samus, but I can deal with that. Red's direct percentage on Samus was used to adjust Samus and Mega Man.
- Cloud is estimated at 53% on Pokemon (Squirtle) in a 1v1 24 hour match. Pre-rallies, obviously. That's more or less just a ballpark estimate based on projections early in the match, but it's highly conservative, like most of the estimates I've made.
- Sephiroth is given his 2010 proportion to Cloud.
- Sonic is estimated at 48.74% on Pokemon (Mewtwo) in a 1v1 24 hour match, assuming a 60/40 overlap for Sonic/Bowser. I didn't go as high for that overlap because Pokemon is also technically Nintendo, but you can adjust that as you like.

Edit: Some fun with statistics:
* Tifa is projected at 50.5% on Sephiroth using her 2013 percentage on Samus.
* For that matter, so is Vivi.
* GlaDOS is projected at 46.5% on R3 Kirby. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3800
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Welcome to the League of Stickies.

Achromatic posted...

SuperNiceDog posted...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rreykKmmIhU&feature=c4-overview&list=UUTClyIBtsqJ23Wd6bzClD_g&hd=1

Sir Chris's highlights from "The Show"!

I am legitimately scared.

" Changed his very username to Acrobatic wait...Achromatic what does that even mean??????" lol
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Raytan wins!

Link so strong! Only 1 guy manages above 45%?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Yay my top three Noble Niners are the top three Noble Niners.

In precisely the opposite order, but oh well.
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Play Pac-Man World 2.

Karmas and whatnot should be awarded soon. Bacon said next week, which would be around now!
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Your new reigning and defending Guru Champion, raytan7585!

Just a few more adjustments and we'll have the entire adjusted extrapolated standings! I'm sure Ngamer would appreciate it.
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raytan stole my sig 'cause he's awesome at predicting GameFAQs contests! Grrrrrrr, I will get my revenge!

Whoa, these vote totals are really bad. Took almost 2 minutes just to reach 100 votes. These are the kind of vote totals I'd expect from the GotY polls.

These recent polls have been very terrible lately. Including today's poll, the last 7 polls have produced 4 polls with under 30000 votes, 2 polls just barely above 30000 votes, and 1 poll above 40000 votes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!

Summary of gameFAQs' response to most polls of the past two weeks: Screw you modern gaming.

Can't say I disagree with most of the results either!
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]

The vote totals today are so bad that this will get under 20000 votes. That's right, I'm calling it right now.

This will be the first non-GotY poll to get under 20000 votes in a fair, 24-hour poll since like 2002.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!

Safer_777 posted...

So in this contest we had the biggest succesful comeback ever, Draven beating Jak. Okay but did we break closest wire to wire match ever? I think Snake VS Kefka VS Glados did that?

To answer your question: yes
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Please don't post to GameFAQs while driving. It could get you killed.
Or worse, modded.

There's no choice for people who haven't seen the controller.
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raytanFEAR

Did I miss the official announcement of the contest winners, or have they still not been announced?
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Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC

I still think there was overlap between Mario and X though. This was pretty much proved in 2008. I believe Mario is above Samus. Samus would surely also have been screwed by Vivi. Mario could surely also win all the matches Samus won.
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*1, *202,000,024 raytan7585
*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket, *3, *6,495,240 Naruto

Yeah I think the only reason most of us were impressed with Samus's performances is because most of us expected her to be weaker. Just imagine if her last game wasn't alpha-DmC and she still put up the same performances: what would we say then?
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Play Pac-Man World 2.

Can someone please put the final x-stats here? (or on the wiki)

tennisboy213 posted...

There's no choice for people who haven't seen the controller.

Thats what I would've voted if it were available. Had to Google image search the controller just so I could vote honestly in today's poll!
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Your new reigning and defending Guru Champion, raytan7585!

-hotdogturtle-- posted...

Did I miss the official announcement of the contest winners, or have they still not been announced?

Still have yet to be announced.
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Your new reigning and defending Guru Champion, raytan7585!

ctesjbuvf posted...

I still think there was overlap between Mario and X though. This was pretty much proved in 2008. I believe Mario is above Samus. Samus would surely also have been screwed by Vivi. Mario could surely also win all the matches Samus won.

No, it wasn't. On the contrary, 2008 was where X proved that he was fairly independent from Mario because X almost beat Mario when Zelda was in the poll. There is certainly some overlap, but it's not as heavy as a real Nintendo character. Whatever overlap advantage Crono had was almost assuredly more than canceled out by the heavy disadvantage of having to face Mario in a day match.

Samus has also been in the same Ganondorf overlap situation as Mario and didn't choke - in 2008. People are making excuses for the plumber's sorry underperforming ass. He should honestly feel lucky that he ended up so close to Samus in my adjusted stats.

Edit: But even if you wanted to credit Mario with an unprecedented 70/30 overlap with X and completely ignore the fact that it's a day match... he's projected at 57% on Crono. Whoopee.
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Welcome to the League of Stickies.

I find it funny that Samus would beat Mario right as she's coming off of her most hated game while Mario is getting new mainline platformers really quickly compared to earlier.

To be fair though, the latter's probably hurting Mario. I get the feeling that he's become a bit of an anti-vote target due to Nintendo over-marketing his games and being ass in general nowadays compared to earlier. I kind of get the feeling that Square Enix overmarketing Final Fantasy VII has hurt every character from the game aside from maybe Tifa (and in her case, only because she got her most high-profile appearance since Kingdom Hearts II since last contest. Do not argue with me against Dissidia 012 boosting characters because we saw evidence for it elsewhere in the contest as well).
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Play Pac-Man World 2.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I find it funny that Samus would beat Mario right as she's coming off of her most hated game while Mario is getting new mainline platformers really quickly compared to earlier.

To be fair though, the latter's probably hurting Mario. I get the feeling that he's become a bit of an anti-vote target due to Nintendo over-marketing his games and being ass in general nowadays compared to earlier. I kind of get the feeling that Square Enix overmarketing Final Fantasy VII has hurt every character from the game aside from maybe Tifa (and in her case, only because she got her most high-profile appearance since Kingdom Hearts II since last contest. Do not argue with me against Dissidia 012 boosting characters because we saw evidence for it elsewhere in the contest as well).

Yep, This Site loves to kick anything "Popular".
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The Hardcore Kid

Were you saying that sarcastically or did you really mean it?
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Play Pac-Man World 2.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Were you saying that sarcastically or did you really mean it?

Meant it.
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The Hardcore Kid

No, it wasn't. On the contrary, 2008 was where X proved that he was fairly independent from Mario because X almost beat Mario when Zelda was in the poll. There is certainly some overlap, but it's not as heavy as a real Nintendo character. Whatever overlap advantage Crono had was almost assuredly more than canceled out by the heavy disadvantage of having to face Mario in a day match.

Samus has also been in the same Ganondorf overlap situation as Mario and didn't choke - in 2008. People are making excuses for the plumber's sorry underperforming ass. He should honestly feel lucky that he ended up so close to Samus in my adjusted stats.

Edit: But even if you wanted to credit Mario with an unprecedented 70/30 overlap with X and completely ignore the fact that it's a day match... he's projected at 57% on Crono. Whoopee.

MMX does have a sizable Nintendo overlap. That's why he didn't beat Mario when Vivi did* under similar circumstances despite the gap between 2008 X and 2013 Vivi likely being quite a bit more than the gap between the two Marios.

*or came close to without rallying
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*!

Cloud at 41% on Link feels depressing. Ugh.
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http://i.minus.com/iCrmpxIEtvrvT.gif
http://anilist.co/animelist/2694/bks00 congrats to raytan, Guru Champ!

This is more in the realm of speculation, but if you want my opinion (Bonus Match) Link 2013 is a healthy bit above Link 2010. In fact, my current estimates have Bonus Snake pretty close to Link 2010, so that would be more like 56/44 for Cloud on the old Link compared to the current 59/41.
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Welcome to the League of Stickies.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4571

Rivalry Rumble results vindicated!
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]

Whupassman posted...

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Were you saying that sarcastically or did you really mean it?

Meant it.

Hey nice.
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Play Pac-Man World 2.

"Multiplayer, I almost never play single player games" has not even gotten a single vote yet when the freeze kicked in. I believe this is the second time I've seen a poll option with 0 votes at the freeze.


-LusterSoldier- posted...

The vote totals today are so bad that this will get under 20000 votes. That's right, I'm calling it right now.

Looks like I was wrong. The poll barely broke 21000 votes, but it's still the worst vote totals in a non-GotY poll since 2002. Even this year's Super Bowl poll managed almost 27000 votes, so it shows how pathetic this poll was.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!

There was a time in my life when the 5th option was me.

I miss that time.
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Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC

I wonder how many Chesters Lucario is worth nowadays
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Your new reigning and defending Guru Champion, raytan7585!

21.000 votes... Nobody cares about Steam console it seems.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

ffmasterjose posted...

I wonder how many Chesters Lucario is worth nowadays

How many Chesters is Link approximately worth?

Relative to Link, the only character in the entire bracket this year that we probably ended with a cleaner read on than Isaac is Snake. If you've got a number of Chesters Link is worth, then you know how many Isaac is worth. Isaac looks to have remained fairly consistent with his 2003 performance, so you can probably use Lucario/Isaac 2008 to give Lucario a decently accurate number. Maybe spotting Lucario an additional Chester or two if you assume the pokemon fever gripping this site will benefit even post-Gen 2 pokemon a little bit.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]

Isaac 2003 = Isaac 2013? That's... not a terribly bad postulate. Puts Snake at like 42% on Link 2k3, which sounds more or less right. But then again, Isaac is underrated in 2003 due to the significant and unaccounted for Link/Samus SFF that happened. Adjusting Samus to her 2004 value puts Snake at 47% on Link 2k3, which doesn't sound right at all.
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Welcome to the League of Stickies.

Oh right. Forgot to mention, I accounted for Link/Samus SFF by setting Samus to 40.99% on Cloud in 2003 since she got that against Cloud in 2004.

That gives Isaac 20.22% on Cloud 2003 and 20.89% on Link 2003.
Isaac is worth 20.65% on Link 2013.

You just said yesterday that you had Bonus Link notably above 2010 Link so yeah, not seeing a problem. 2004-2008 Link is generally considered stronger than 2003 Link (though ngamer's site gets pretty unhinged there in later years; 2007 Link is worth 60% on Link 2002/2003!?) so Link wouldn't have even had to have recovered to peak strength to make consistent Isaac reasonable.

Plus Snake only being worth 43% on 2003 Link suggests 2003 Samus and current Snake would be very close, which I'd have difficulty believing.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO raytan NO PEACE]

Hmm, I guess that more or less works out. I guess my reservations weren't mathematically founded... probably more of a psychological barrier of considering any Link that isn't the one we saw in 2010 'vulnerable'.

Though that's as much his competition's problem as anything else. Cloud 2k3 would have probably done something like break 55% on Link 2010.
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Welcome to the League of Stickies.