GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1183
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And
then after the Link/Mario match- I saw people theorizing that Mario was
worth 45% on Link indirectly, and Link somehow summoned up 10 full
points of SFF to win with 65% in the actual match. When Link has never
demonstrated anywhere near that much SFF to Mario before. Even when he
was much farther above Mario. Even though he had just beaten Luigi with
a measly 72%, compared to the 81% he once received on Yoshi through his
2004 SFF power. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I
mean, come on. People predict Mario to be worth 42% on Link, and for
Link to win the match 60/40 after SFF. Link wins with 65%. People
revise their opinion of Mario's strength to be 45% on Link indirectly.
Seriously? It's like people being literally 18% off on their prediction on Super Mario World in R2 of the 2009 contest and refusing to move their predictions of the R3 match one iota. Maybe there's something about Mario that drives people to ignore data. Maybe it's Mario/Samus- a lot of people seem to think the lesson of that match is: ignore the data and pick what feels right. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Even discounting the fact that Crono scored 47% on Mario in a day match this year (that's a real small space for five other characters to fit in!), it doesn't look good for Mario even if you dismiss the bonus match entirely. Comparing Crono/Pikachu/Magus and Mario/Vivi/Ganondorf, two matches with very similar circumstances, it looks like Crono would have scored about 50.5% on Pikachu in a day match assuming Cloud/Seph-style overlap for Crono/Magus. Mario looks like he would have scored 53.5% on Vivi assuming Mario/Zelda-style overlap for Mario/Ganondorf. That doesn't tell the entire tale because Vivi was rallied - but Mario was heavily counterallied as well. Mario's match got about 8000 votes more than Crono's. Assuming a 60/40 split in the rallied votes for Vivi yields about 3200 more votes for Vivi, meaning Mario would score 55.5% on Vivi without Ganondorf or rallies. You can play around with the numbers a bit, but 55.5% naturally in a day match for Mario probably yields something closer to 53% in a 24 hour match. And Crono probably yields closer to 52% on Pikachu in a 24 hour match. Setting Pikachu = Vivi (and I'm pretty sure most people would take Pikachu)... Mario and Crono are relatively close using virtually any data point you use in this contest. You have to ignore this contest outright to revert to the conventional 2/9 wisdom. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
You
pretty much have to ignore all our contests after 2007 for the 2/9
setup. Snake has outclassed Mario over and over again since the 2008
contest. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
It
ain't board 8 if they do not feel the need to greatly exaggerate the
strength of Mario and Mega Man. Mario looked bad in that Vivi/bonus
match and yet he's suddenly worth 47% on Link indirectly. They claimed Mario is worth 45% on Link in 2010 and now 47% on current Link, at the rate it's going, Mario'll be indirectly stronger than Link in 2016. --- Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man. |
KH and Sox (and anyone else), Would you mind shedding some light on how you, respectively, would rank the N9 today? And also whether you believe any/which characters now possess enough strength to win a 1v1 24 hour match over the #9 weak link of the N9 (or more). --- KeepinItFresh since uhh... hell I don't know. |
This has been pretty fluid as I've rolled it around in my head, but at this exact second in time: Link Snake Samus Cloud Mario Mega Man Crono Sephiroth Sonic With today's votals and rallies, plenty outside characters can win over probably all the Nobles up to Cloud with the right situation. Pretty much any top tier Pokemon. Square near-elites with the right setup. Big Boss with his pointing picture. And so forth. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
I wonder when everyone is informed of rewards and prizes. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak |
The best part is that one rally can shake a lot of that list up. --- Congratulation to the 2013 CB9 Guru winner, raytan! But hey, at least I'm #4! Previous Let's Plays: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
I wonder for how long people will stil look at Sonic as a character separated from the rest ("Noble" Nine) He is clearly at the bottom,always was and always will be The only notable thing he ever done was to beat Crono in 2006 (what was that) |
Eh,
Sonic was also marginally above Mega Man in 2006 and Snake in 2003. And
probably wins a blind match against Samus in 2002. Post-SSBB
Announcement Sonic in 2007 likely takes it to Crono and Mega Man in
similar fashion. Since 2008 it's been nothing but bad news for Sonic though. Crushing losses to Auron, Kirby, and Mewtwo where he was never remotely in the match... he has to thank his lucky stars his path in 2010 was so soft. In my mock brackets I've been coming up with a myriad amount of 'cool' or 'trap' matches involving Sonic. Favorite 'cool match' setup so far? Sonic/MMX. Favorite 'trap'? Sonic/Big Boss. :) --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Sonic
is a great wildcard. A R2 match with someone like Yoshi or Zelda that
has a small chance of winning, a R3 match with someone like Squall that
could easily be a favorite, and then a R4 rematch with Crono (assuming
either of them even make it there!) e: I'd probably throw Bulbasaur into Crono's pack just to see if Crono can find a way to lose to Pokemon again! Even though Crono should have only a 5% chance of actually losing against him. --- Congratulation to the 2013 CB9 Guru winner, raytan! But hey, at least I'm #4! Previous Let's Plays: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
I hate Crono strength as well but I still think he should be stronger than Sonic so what really happened in 2006...? Sonic 2006 hype? (If it really is the reason...then lol) |
I
honestly feel like Sonic is inherently weakened by multi-ways. He has a
massive icon factor, but that's about it. And while icons stand up
great 1v1 (every non-invested voter will vote for him), he drops off a
cliff in multi-ways, just due to the basic fact that there are so many
fewer non-invested voters. --- Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
Reading
through Ulti's rant on us never getting a good read on Meta-Knight
because he was pretty much only ever featured in polls with joke entries
or Nintendo characters, I was wondering who would be the most 'neutral'
character in these contests. By which I mean: a character who would always allow us to get a good read on his opponent, no matter who it is. There can't be LFF involved (which bars pretty much all Nintendo/FF characters); it can't be a joke entrant; it can't be an anti-vote magnet; it can't be so ludicrously weak that everyone would be able to destroy them (e.g. Chester). --- When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore |
Every
bad performance from Sonic has been either in Multi-ways or involving
Nintendo. Having beaten Tifa, Vincent, Crono, Luigi, Ganondorf and Kirby
all by a greater margin than he lost to Mega Man or Samus makes the
doubters look a bit ridiculous. |
Nanis23 posted... I hate Crono strength as well but I still think he should be stronger than Sonic so what really happened in 2006...? It would be funny if Sonics most hated game was the reason for his strongest performance ever. --- http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg |
Solfadore posted... Reading through Ulti's rant on us never getting a good read on Meta-Knight because he was pretty much only ever featured in polls with joke entries or Nintendo characters, I was wondering who would be the most 'neutral' character in these contests. I think it would be hard to find a character that's completely immune to LFF. Ryu is a the closest match I can think of, but he can be LFFed by other SF characters, and possibly some other fighting game characters? --- Fortune favors the bold. -Vergil |
I finally found time to read the stat topics during the Snake/Draven match A comment I made,when Snake began cutting Draven- We already seen Draven erase a 2000 lead in less than an hour Just think how much we could be crushed if Snake really built a 7000 lead somehow,and in the last hour the mods would do what they did Just...think..that rally made Draven extend his lead from 578 to 7752 in an hour If Snake had a 7000 lead a hour before the ending and then THAT happened,I don't know how people here would react Oh and LOL at the last post of thread 1178,made by "TheOneAboveAll" Reddit rally thread gone. This is bad. Bad bad bad. This is like..."End of disc 1" |
Has anyone made adjusted x-stats yet? Even though it would be mostly speculation, it would be interesting to see nevertheless. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those! It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
I suppose my list is the same as KH's. Link Snake Samus Cloud Mario Mega Man Crono Sephiroth Sonic I might take Mario over Cloud in a direct match because Cloud is so susceptible to being rallied against, and with the current low votals, it doesn't take much. But Cloud is probably a little stronger without rallies (if we ever see that again). --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Does
anyone have the Draven/Snake hourlies? It looks like the stats topic
with them has purged but has not yet been uploaded to the archive. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Not so much. It's nice having the pictures, but much easier to analyze with the numbers. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
TheOneAboveAll posted... I honestly feel like Sonic is inherently weakened by multi-ways. He has a massive icon factor, but that's about it. And while icons stand up great 1v1 (every non-invested voter will vote for him), he drops off a cliff in multi-ways, just due to the basic fact that there are so many fewer non-invested voters. Sonic was remarkably bad in 2010 as well. He got 54% on Kirby - which everyone was relieved about because at least he hadn't flat-out lost like the year before. But really - ultra-weakened Sephiroth got 53% on hyper-bandwagoned, super-STF Kirby for crying out loud. At a minimum I'd take X, Luigi, non-Bacon Ganondorf, Big Boss, Mewtwo, Pikachu, Squirtle, Charizard, Tifa, Squall, Auron, and Zelda over Kirby in a 1v1 setting. Assuming he can still even maintain that 54% on Kirby that puts Sonic in a ludicrously perilous danger zone. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Kirby/Pikachu or Kirby/Squirtle 1v1 has a lot of potential, I think. I'd like to see that. --- raytan is the Draven to my Chester. congratulations on the Guru championship! |
Karma,just how much do you believe STF to be a factor..? |
Usually? Minimal to nonexistent. In preposterously extreme cases- (http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb9/5255-01.jpg what the f***) -easily worth a percent or two. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Haste_2 posted... Has anyone made adjusted x-stats yet? Even though it would be mostly speculation, it would be interesting to see nevertheless. I don't know how anyone could manage to adjust the x-stats into anything even close to making sense. --- Congratulation to the 2013 CB9 Guru winner, raytan! But hey, at least I'm #4! Previous Let's Plays: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
lmaoxstats --- League of Legends username = superange WELCOME TO THE LEAGUE OF RAYTAN |
Four words; Thank F*** it's over. --- The Hardcore Kid |
Link Snake Samus Mario Cloud Mega Man Sephiroth Crono Sonic --- banana |
ZFS posted... Link I very much believe Samus>Mario indirectly. But not head-to-head. Mario might beat Snake head-to-head too. And the gap is not that big. --- Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
SFF
can lead to weird results, I wasn't considering that when I ranked
them. Mario over Snake, though, not buying that - and I often go for
Mario in closer debated matches! Just nothing to indicate he's that
high. Maybe when Nintendo rebounds a bit, but all things considered,
it's doubtful he beats Snake. You're right that the gaps aren't wide,
though, and these are it even the nine most popular characters, even. --- banana |
I
know the raw data is all on the updater, Nanis. I just wanted the
hourly numbers I did in I believe Part 1180. It's not hard to redo them
from the raw data, but I'd rather not spend time or effort doing it, so
I'll just wait until it's added to the archive. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I agree mostly with the NN tier/rankings KH, red sox, and HM posted. Link Snake Samus Mario - 40ish% on 2010 Link Mega Man - 39ish% Crono - 37ish% Cloud - 37ish% Sonic - 34ish%-37ish% Sephiroth - 35ish% Except that Sephiroth probably underperformed due to Draven, so Sonic should probably be adjusted downward below Sephiroth. It's really likely Sephiroth is the bottom of the pack aside from Sonic, though. --- raytan stole my sig 'cause he's awesome at predicting GameFAQs contests! Grrrrrrr, I will get my revenge! |
I think Charizard was weaker this year because he already had a successful run and thus the joke got old, just like L-Block. Not that I want to believe Pokemon are joke characters, but it explains so, so much if you make that assumption. --- "That choke point bridge in Chapter 2 completely changed my strategy as well as my views on life." - WestbrickIII |
red sox 777 posted... There's a fundamental flaw in multi-way x-stats, in that they are internally inconsistent within the same match. For example, let's say you have the following match: That's...your math is off. I mean, there is a fundamental flaw in multiway x-stats, but the top character getting 50% exactly is the one time that it does work out properly! At least in three-ways. In 4-ways it never works out properly because there's always an internal 3-way where it doesn't work out. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. Congratulations to Guru champion, the mighty raytan. |
eaglesarebeasts posted... Nanis23 posted...I hate Crono strength as well but I still think he should be stronger than Sonic so what really happened in 2006...? It's possible! Hype of a game can often be better for a character than the game itself. And Sonic 2006 was supposed to be a big release--basically everything that Sonic Generations ended up actually being (I mean, part of the problem was that it was supposed to be a 15th anniversary celebration, so they rushed it to make sure that it would be out by the 2006 holiday season). See also: Lightning being stronger before FFXIII was released than afterwards. Actually, it's funny--it seems like more often than not, those "super-fortuitous release dates" end up being less-than-beloved games. Mario's biggest upset came on the release date for Super Mario Sunshine, which most people think is the worst 3D console Mario (though I disagree), and of course there's Golden Sun > San Andreas on the release date for Dark Dawn, which turned out to be a travesty (and yet, I still want Camelot to make the fourth game, if only because I can't imagine they could do any worse. Well, that and the one thing about Dark Dawn that was good was the story, and they left us with one hell of a cliffhanger.) --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. Congratulations to Guru champion, the mighty raytan. |
My
math was off, but I did it again and while I'm getting different
numbers, the final result is still off. Are you sure it works for a
3-way with the top character getting 50%? Here's another hypo: Crono 50% Yoshi 30% Luigi 20% Yoshi has 37.50% on Crono. Luigi has 28.57% on Crono. Through Yoshi, Luigi has 37.50*40/50 = 30% on Crono =/= 28.57% on Crono. But maybe it works if the bottom 2 characters have the same percentage? Link 80% Ganondorf 10% Zelda 10% Zelda and Ganondorf both have 11.11% on Link. Through Ganondorf, Zelda has 11.11*50/50 = 11.11% on Link = 11.11% on Link. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Yeah,
I'm getting red sox's numbers (from that second post) First post it
still didn't work, just with slightly different numbers. The case where the last two are tied should always work as far as I can tell. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
I think Charizard was weaker this year because he already had a successful run and thus the joke got old, just like L-Block. Not that I want to believe Pokemon are joke characters, but it explains so, so much if you make that assumption. Charizard underperformed because people kept looking at Mario and Bowser and not at Kratos which is what they should have looked at. Though to be fair all the other Pokemon looked great while Charizard looked normal. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest |
A + B + C = 1 A >= B >= C X-stat(A) = A/(A+A) = 0.5 X(B) = B/(A+B) X(C) = C/(A+C) X(C through B) = [C/(B+C)]*2X(B) = 2[C/(B+C)]*[B/(A+B)] Suppose X(C through B) = X(C) 2[C/(B+C)]*[B/(A+B)] = C/(A+C) 2B = (A+B)(B+C)/(A+C) 2(AB + BC) = AB + BC + AC + B^2 AB + BC = AC + BB AB - AC = BB - BC A(B - C) = B(B - C) Either B = C or B =/= C If B = C, then B = C If B =/= C, then A(B-C) = B(B-C) => A = B Ergo, if X(C through B) = X(C), then either A = B or B = C. So the traditional x-stat formula works if any 2 characters are tied. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Yeah,
that makes sense. I didn't even stop to think about the top two being
tied, but intuitively it seems pretty obvious it'd work there too. And I was too lazy to do the actual math to prove it so it's nice to see it! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
red sox 777 posted... Does anyone have the Draven/Snake hourlies? It looks like the stats topic with them has purged but has not yet been uploaded to the archive. I'll try to upload them soon. Is this what you're looking for?: Draven by the hour vs. Snake: 1:00 | 51.56% | +330 2:00 | 54.50% | +633 3:00 | 47.09% | -358 4:00 | 47.31% | -320 5:00 | 57.60% | +790 6:00 | 59.48% | +798 7:00 | 58.52% | +608 8:00 | 54.42% | +332 9:00 | 54.58% | +320 10:00 | 46.48% | -256 11:00 | 44.82% | -376 12:00 | 41.49% | -626 13:00 | 40.61% | -857 14:00 | 70.06% | +4059 15:00 | 72.17% | +7778 16:00 | 73.83% | +3235 17:00 | 74.27% | +3160 18:00 | 67.87% | +1708 19:00 | 66.86% | +1225 20:00 | 67.22% | +1113 21:00 | 60.16% | +522 22:00 | 61.23% | +567 23:00 | 52.86% | +100 --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
13:00 | 40.61% | -857 XD Is that a record for swing in an hour? I know Link/Draven had some pretty funny ones, but oh my god. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Yes, that's the one, and that's the record. Link/Draven had a 24% swing and a 21% swing. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Man
the contest pages on the wiki for this year have really not got off on
the right foot. Samus is listed as the strongest Nintendo character in
the main bracket (...). Link's Contest History for this year is 90% a
play-by-play of LSD. Charizard > Zelda is listed as an upset. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
It's something I'll check over, not sure how I missed Charizard, must of saw it was completed and didn't bother to read it. It is a wiki so you can change it too. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest |
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