Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1183

#101 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/17/2013 5:36:42 PM | message detail
That would be nice, but either Snake or Link would probably be considerably weaker by the end of the gauntlet, because they always win. We are taking the 7 most beloved characters on the site after Link/Snake and having them beaten in 7 consecutive days- that's going to fuel up the anti-votes.
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#102 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/17/2013 5:38:30 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Link v Noble Nine in ascending order might be worth seeing to see if his anti-votes build up from the frustration with the LAW and allow Snake to catch him on the final day.

Or red sox is right about Link fans taking their marching orders directly from Karl Rove and by the last match Link makes Snake look like Sonic.


Perhaps, but I'm talking about which matches would be best from the perspective of accurately ranking the Noble Nine. If accuracy is the goal, Snake's a better reference point.

You'd probably have to space the matches out over a lengthy period of time to prevent fatigue from setting in regardless of which character's making repeat appearances.
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#103 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/17/2013 5:39:57 PM | message detail
Obviously we don't do it BR style.

We just do it Link v Sonic, then Link v Sephiroth, then Link v Crono, until we get to the plucky underdog who never wins on the final day. :3
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#104 | Lopen | Posted 9/17/2013 5:42:29 PM | message detail
You do that and I'm pretty sure the final day is Cloud vs Snake. Attrition would take Link before he got to Snake I think
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#105 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/17/2013 5:45:07 PM | message detail
Maybe once a month? Then nominations for the next contest open on the day of the last one.
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#106 | ZFS | Posted 9/17/2013 5:45:34 PM | message detail
It wouldn't be too hard to get a ranking of the NN in a regular bracket, provided it's made to avoid the more obvious SFF setups. We have a good enough feel for the top half and the bottom half, anyway, I think.
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#107 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/17/2013 5:53:01 PM | message detail
Cleanest read on the Noble Nine requires keeping Mario away from Samus and Mega Man (probably Sonic too, regrettably), keeping Cloud away from Sephiroth, and keeping basically everyone except Snake, Cloud, and Sephiroth away from Link (I don't trust even Crono to not get overperformed on a tad by Link these days).
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#108 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/17/2013 5:54:46 PM | message detail
Crono will do perfectly fine on Link. With the anti-votes Link gets, he might even overperform a bit relative to what he'd get through Cloud or Snake.
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#109 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/17/2013 5:55:01 PM | message detail
FF7 remake on 3DS
Link starts putting SFF on even more of the Noble Nine
#110 | ZFS | Posted 9/17/2013 5:58:55 PM | message detail
I think the major ones to avoid are Mario/Samus, Mario/Mega Man, Link and Mario/Samus (unless in the final). Everything else I think you can roll with without it dramatically changing the stats, nothing that wouldn't be easy enough to get an adjustment on.
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#111 | Luigiman59 | Posted 9/17/2013 6:04:22 PM | message detail
Mario
Cloud

Snake
Samus

Megaman
Sephiroth

Crono
Sonic

Winner vs Link 1v1. If Link wins, he gets retired forever.
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#112 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/17/2013 6:07:36 PM | message detail
Sonic is one of the biggest wild cards we have right now among the Nobles as far as his strength is concerned. Keeping him away from Link and Mario is of paramount importance if your objective is a clean read (as opposed to finally seeing Mario v Sonic). I could see a doubling for Mario there today.
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#113 | Lopen | Posted 9/17/2013 6:09:42 PM | message detail
Mario vs Sonic I honestly don't know. I mean Sonic massacred Bowser this year and Shadow held up well against Mario in 03 (yeah yeah 10 years ago but worth thinking about). I could see Sonic winning that or getting doubled, but I think it's more likely that the match is for the most part safe.
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#114 | LOLContests | Posted 9/17/2013 6:10:20 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
At any rate, while there were doubts about Charizard before the contest, mainly because it made everyone he faced overrated in the stats... what the heck went down for Charizard to suck so badly???


Charizard was getting SFFd/LFFd by Mega Man/Zero as well, as they are both pseudo-Nintendo. This minimzed how much he was able to gain from the Mega Man fanbase split.
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#115 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/17/2013 6:15:30 PM | message detail
SMW v Sonic 2, Mario/Bowser v Sonic/Robotnik give me a lot more pause. Mario was just straight up hated and weaker in 2k3. I believe Mario/Sonic could have been a barnburner in 2004. Nowadays, yeah, I'd expect a doubling before a clean read.
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#116 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/17/2013 6:19:19 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I see no reason why they couldn't replicate that magic! Between 4chan rallies and Pokerallies, there are very few things that would be safe from something like Mudkip. Even if they didn't get rallied quite as hard in a future contest that decline would be nothing compared to how much our votals have tanked.


Remember Super Mario World vs. Final Fantasy vs. Battletoads in the Best Game Ever 2 contest, and how 4chan rallied Battletoads several thousand votes, but it didn't mean a damn thing at all because that match drew well over 100000 votes?

Imagine if that poll took place today with only 50,000 for 24 hour matches.
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#117 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/17/2013 6:27:21 PM | message detail
Fatal Threeway

The Legend of Zelda
Super Mario Bros.
Battletoads
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#118 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/17/2013 7:07:38 PM | message detail
Sonic's performance on Bowser this year wasn't good. Bowser was a hopeless last placer being LFFed in two different directions between Mario/Sonic LFF and Nintendo LFF. Bowser also hasn't looked like a real near-elite since around 2006, with his 2010 win against Sora now looking the opposite of impressive. This very contest, Bowser failed to 60-40 The Boss. In a day match.

But despite all that, Bowser broke 40% on Sonic. Split Mewtwo's votes 50/50 (Should be reasonable, Bowser's actually Nintendo and Sonic isn't) and he'd get 44.51% on Sonic.

For comparison:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2545
And that was in 2006, when Bowser was very likely stronger than he is now.
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#119 | snoocete | Posted 9/17/2013 7:10:16 PM | message detail
What if the next contest combines 3-ways with the classic 1v1 format?

- first round: 3-way for 12 hours

- second round: 1v1 for 12 hours

- from the third round until the finals: 1v1 for 24 hours

They do it like this in the Saimoe tournament and it seems to work okay
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#120 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/17/2013 7:14:21 PM | message detail
I'd like second round on to be 24 hours as well as 1v1. Assuming the field gets winnowed down to 32 entrants by R2 (starting at 96 entrants) that would be a trivial increase. And most of the R2 matches should be really good affairs that deserve a 24 hour setup.
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#121 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/17/2013 7:20:45 PM | message detail
snoocete posted...
What if the next contest combines 3-ways with the classic 1v1 format?

- first round: 3-way for 12 hours

- second round: 1v1 for 12 hours

- from the third round until the finals: 1v1 for 24 hours

They do it like this in the Saimoe tournament and it seems to work okay


Personally, I'd prefer 24 hours for the second round onward.
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#122 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/17/2013 7:31:30 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I'd like second round on to be 24 hours as well as 1v1. Assuming the field gets winnowed down to 32 entrants by R2 (starting at 96 entrants) that would be a trivial increase. And most of the R2 matches should be really good affairs that deserve a 24 hour setup.


that 47-day contest!
#123 | snoocete | Posted 9/17/2013 7:38:20 PM | message detail | (edited)
96 entrants sound reasonable but that's a lot lower than the 243 we had in CB9.

So I was thinking double that! 192 entrants. Which gives 32 entrants remaining at round 3. 32 characters doing 1v1 for 24 hours leave a lot of room for N9 + many other elites, near elites and upsets from R1/R2.

Some rough time estimations:

64 battles @ 2 matches a day = 32 days to cover round 1

after round 1 -> 64 entrants remaining

32 battles @ 2 matches a day = 16 days to cover round 2

after round 2 -> 32 entrants remaining

16 days to cover round 3, 8 days to cover round 4, 4 days to cover round 5, 2 days for semifinals, one finals day... = 31 days until the end of the contest

Assuming there are no bonus matches between rounds the whole contest season runs for 79 days, which is 11 days longer than CB9. If we have 24-hour matches at round 2 this would stretch to 111 days.
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#124 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/17/2013 7:45:21 PM | message detail
snoocete posted...
96 entrants sound reasonable but that's a lot lower than the 243 we had in CB9.

So I was thinking double that! 192 entrants. Which gives 32 entrants remaining at round 3. 32 characters doing 1v1 for 24 hours leave a lot of room for N9 + many other elites, near elites and upsets from R1/R2.

Some rough time estimations:

64 battles @ 2 matches a day = 32 days to cover round 1

after round 1 -> 64 entrants remaining

32 battles @ 2 matches a day = 16 days to cover round 2

after round 2 -> 32 entrants remaining

16 days to cover round 3, 8 days to cover round 4, 4 days to cover round 5, 2 days for semifinals, one finals day... = 31 days until the end of the contest

Assuming there are no bonus matches between rounds the whole contest season runs for 79 days, which is 11 days longer than CB9. If we have 24-hour matches at round 2 this would stretch to 111 days.


192 characters?? That's just stupid, to be blunt.
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#125 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/17/2013 7:48:14 PM | message detail
clearly Allen has decided to make CBX a 256-character, 4-way affair
#126 | snoocete | Posted 9/17/2013 7:54:23 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
192 characters?? That's just stupid, to be blunt.

Didn't we just finish a contest with 243 characters

1337gamerpr0 posted...
clearly Allen has decided to make CBX a 256-character, 4-way affair

Draven/L-Block/Link/Snake finals go go go
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#127 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/17/2013 7:55:24 PM | message detail
snoocete posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
192 characters?? That's just stupid, to be blunt.

Didn't we just finish a contest with 243 characters


well, that is another reason why this contest was stupid
#128 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/17/2013 8:03:08 PM | message detail
snoocete posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
192 characters?? That's just stupid, to be blunt.

Didn't we just finish a contest with 243 characters


Doesn't make the idea any less dumb.
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#129 | -Tofa7- | Posted 9/17/2013 8:05:17 PM | message detail
Don't retire Snake. I would still take Mario over Snake and maybe even Samus. He's not untouchable.
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#130 | Darkemaste | Posted 9/17/2013 8:20:01 PM | message detail | (edited)
snoocete posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
192 characters?? That's just stupid, to be blunt.

Didn't we just finish a contest with 243 characters

1337gamerpr0 posted...
clearly Allen has decided to make CBX a 256-character, 4-way affair

Draven/L-Block/Link/Snake finals go go go

What makes you think Draven fans would vote for L-Block? It's not like he wasn't nominated for anything other than being the first LoL character to join this contest.

Though it's a moot point because I can assure you Draven won't be there next time. ;)

http://i.imgur.com/TvmIx8v.gif
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#131 | snoocete | Posted 9/17/2013 9:01:02 PM | message detail
I was thinking if Draven and L-Block ends up in the same 4-way group some votes would spill over to L

They have a very positive opinion about the block because it killed Teemo in the first round
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#132 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/17/2013 9:22:47 PM | message detail
RIP Master Chief
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#133 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/17/2013 9:27:20 PM | message detail
Yeah, holy s***.
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#134 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/17/2013 9:28:53 PM | message detail
...less than 9% of the site is planning to get an Xbox One?
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#135 | Darkemaste | Posted 9/17/2013 9:35:07 PM | message detail | (edited)
Honestly I don't think anyone from our board really expected him to get past R1.

Hell I anti-voted him myself. *cough Palutena cough*
I don't think it would of made too much of a difference who he was up against or who beat him tbh, he could of been up against Chester 1v1 and Teemo still would of lost simply due to Teemo hate. *hint hint*

http://i.imgur.com/32puRKJ.jpg
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#136 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/17/2013 9:30:25 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
...less than 9% of the site is planning to get an Xbox One?


still higher than Wii U! *shot*
#137 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/17/2013 9:32:02 PM | message detail
Welcome to SonyFAQs
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#138 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/17/2013 9:36:16 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Welcome to SonyFAQs


Link OP, holding strong in SonyFAQs
#139 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/17/2013 10:20:48 PM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
Welcome to SonyFAQs


The PlayStation 4 option did better when we had this poll back in June.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5117
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5269

The option for "No, but I plan to buy a PlayStation 4" is doing about 15% worse in today's poll compared to the poll back in June. However, you really have to blame the wording of the option in today's poll for the decline. The moment you add "in the next year" to that poll option, it causes some voters to switch over to "No, I don't plan to buy either console right now" because they know they aren't going to get either system within the next year.


1337gamerpr0 posted...
still higher than Wii U! *shot*


Wii U already has a higher ownership rate than the percentage of people interested in the Xbox One. And most of the site agrees that the Wii U is better than Xbox One, according to this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5116
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#140 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/17/2013 10:24:15 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
still higher than Wii U! *shot*


Wii U already has a higher ownership rate than the percentage of people interested in the Xbox One. And most of the site agrees that the Wii U is better than Xbox One, according to this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5116


stop ruining the joke, damn it >_>
#141 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/17/2013 10:27:08 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Welcome to SonyFAQs


Welcome to the League of Sony!
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#142 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/17/2013 10:30:49 PM | message detail
so this means cole macgrath will win a match next time right
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#143 | hylianknight3 | Posted 9/17/2013 10:35:22 PM | message detail
earnest graves or bust
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#144 | Darkemaste | Posted 9/17/2013 10:41:30 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Welcome to SonyFAQs


Welcome to the League of Sony!

>.>
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#145 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/18/2013 12:22:12 AM | message detail
It really is kind of baffling how I'm still seeing so much of the board entertaining Mario being our #2 while solidly putting Crono at the bottom of the Noble NIne (and a lot of people not even having him as, like, Top 15).

...I'm not alone in recognizing the mathematical impossibility of these claims right
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#146 | pjbasis | Posted 9/18/2013 12:28:08 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
so this means cole macgrath will win a match next time right


It's all about Delsin Rowe now
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#147 | xp1337 | Posted 9/18/2013 12:29:28 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
It really is kind of baffling how I'm still seeing so much of the board entertaining Mario being our #2 while solidly putting Crono at the bottom of the Noble NIne (and a lot of people not even having him as, like, Top 15).

...I'm not alone in recognizing the mathematical impossibility of these claims right

If they just totally wrote off/ignored this contest it makes sense!

>_>
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#148 | pjbasis | Posted 9/18/2013 12:30:48 AM | message detail
What about this contest means Mario can't be #2 and Crono can't be #9 at the same time
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#149 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/18/2013 12:36:51 AM | message detail
Mario worth 47%+ on Link indirectly believe
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#150 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/18/2013 12:43:41 AM | message detail
People have been crazy about where they've put Mario and Crono since....2008. They've just ignored the actual matches and based their opinions on their grand theories of what should make characters decline/boost.

I'm not sure what it's going to take to get through to these people that Mario isn't #2. It might take Snake actually breaking 55% on him in a 1v1, 24 hour match. That might not even do it. Most of this board firmly expected Mario to break 40% directly on Link in 2010, even though he had faced Link 7 times before than and never ever broken 38%.
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