GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1183
- Team Aqua Elite (37)
- Board List
- Topic List
- Track Topic
- Topic Closed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uPRRIBjVbo ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Looks like Snake is going to hold Link under both 53.5% and a 4000 vote lead. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 9/16/2013 11:59:48 PM | #002 Looks like Snake is going to hold Link under both 53.5% and a 4000 vote lead. I view it as a moral victory. --- http://i1024.photobucket.com/albums/y306/greenseafoam/idunno.jpg http://img.imgcake.com/zoidberg2re.gif |
By pure votes, it's Link's least impressive victory ever I think. Now it took a match with 57k~ total votes to do it, but that's beside the point. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Chester stats I'd like to see if anyone knows what went wrong here, either by my own error because of a fundamental aspect of taking direct percentages http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67262228 --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
What happened to GTA on this site, seriously? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1648 --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
There's
a fundamental flaw in multi-way x-stats, in that they are internally
inconsistent within the same match. For example, let's say you have the
following match: Link 50% Cloud 40% CATS 10% CATS has 16.67% of Link/CATS votes directly. But if we extrapolate through Cloud.......CATS has 20% on Cloud. 20 * 40 / 50 = 16%. So we get a different result depending on whether we extrapolate through Link/CATS directly or go through Cloud. We could say, the x-stats say CATS gets 16/16.67% * 50 = 47.99% on CATS. Which is obviously wrong. I don't know if this was the problem you were encountering. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Maybe everyone got burned out on it like I did. Two sandbox crime games (III and VC) was enough for me. --- raytan's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif |
Hm, that's interesting, but it doesn't explain why it's so different from the x-stats themselves. Dancin was the only person under Chester in the xstats, but by making a ratio of the percentages several characters fell below Chester. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/7-site-suggestions/67111376 Not sure if this is still meaningful but whatever. Can't hurt. Everybody go sign. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO raytan NO PEACE] |
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 9/17/2013 12:14:41 AM | #007 There's a fundamental flaw in multi-way x-stats, in that they are internally inconsistent within the same match. For example, let's say you have the following match: I'll admit that I haven't taken a math course in over a decade, and I'm a little tired, but in multi-ways, wouldn't you just subtract how much more votes the character is expected to get against the weaker character from the amount the character is expected to get against the stronger? Or average out what the character would get against both? --- The name isn't Slick, it's Zoidberg. JOHN F***ING ZOIDBERG! http://img.imgcake.com/SgtSphynx/ZoidbergAngryys.jpg |
LOLContests posted... What happened to GTA on this site, seriously? People grew up |
So many people don't care for GTA... Also how many stats topics we had this contest? Does anyone counted them? --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
So this topic is going to last about a month now ah? |
Also who wrote the stuff about Draven and Kanz in Board 8 Wiki? They seem kinda strange. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
Red Shifter Read-probably the "kazbar" dude |
LOLContests posted... What happened to GTA on this site, seriously? I dunno, 50% of the site still wants the game. Look the same to me! --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
Yeah 50% want the game which is quite a lot. It will prolly win Game of the Year unless The Last of Us takes it out. --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMcwhStCYAAr-mC.jpg Dallas Cowboys and Mavs |
So off season is here I guess. At least it will scare away the LoL trolls/lurkers hanging around. --- "Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..." |
lightsout06 posted... Yeah 50% want the game which is quite a lot. It will prolly win Game of the Year unless The Last of Us takes it out. How well did the other GTA games do in their GOTY polls? --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
People who answered they have it or intend to get it at some point from the Got X polls nearest each release: GTA V - 51% GTA IV - 58% San Andreas - 55% Vice City - 68% It is on a downward curve but still very popular. |
San Andreas won while Vice City and GTA3 came in second --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest |
http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1mkrqy/lets_vote_for_league_of_legends_in_golden/ Be 100% certain that if another LoL character makes it in for CBX we are doomed And yes,this proves they will do it for a game contest too |
We have proved to be able to counterrally Link (or OoT) though, assuming the site doesn't go down. --- *1, *202,000,024 raytan7585 *2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket, *3, *6,495,240 Naruto |
The
only reason Link was close to winning was because the rally went
down,which is their weakness and we could take advantage of But now we know that mods can intervene,and if they do something like sticky the rally it will stay at the top for the whole match Also add a notice at the top for the whole match and OOT/Link will get crashed And if the mods stay out of it,then we won because they held back This is why the bonus poll was changed... |
ctesjbuvf posted... We have proved to be able to counterrally Link (or OoT) though, assuming the site doesn't go down. Not really, if a mod is willing to put up that rally thread, it would wreck Link apart. Snake was on pace to grabbing that lead against Draven before getting plowed by the "sticky thread" incident. --- Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man. |
Nanis23 posted... http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1mkrqy/lets_vote_for_league_of_legends_in_golden/ Yeah. This is pretty much the only forum with both the size, mechanics, and moderator apathy to have a large influence on contests. While it isn't entirely fair, all things LoL should be banned from future contests because their rallying is just too much. --- "That choke point bridge in Chapter 2 completely changed my strategy as well as my views on life." - WestbrickIII |
Actually
some champions that aren't well-liked by a lot fans like Master Yi,
Blitzcrank, Urgot or Teemo (who was in this contest) wouldn't get the
same rally power --- League of Legends username = superange WELCOME TO THE LEAGUE OF RAYTAN |
We have proved to be able to counterrally Link (or OoT) though, assuming the site doesn't go down. Not really, while it looks possible on paper we never exactly saw Draven down while he was getting rallied, who knows what lengths they will go to make sure they win. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest |
Banning LoL stuff seems unfair, but then there's not really a good alternative, though maybe things would be different in 1v1. I think best solution would be having a bonus match with contest winner vs LoL. --- Congratulation to the 2013 CB9 Guru winner, raytan! But hey, at least I'm #4! Previous Let's Plays: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
We
have proven it. Even mod-rallied Draven couldn't break 50%. It's not
like they can sustain those 1000 vote updates all day- after 2 hours it
became much weaker. Though 80%+ of it is not our counterrallying, but their rally backfiring. What that means though, is that only characters who are strong over there on reddit can fight back. If Draven rallies against Cloud, the backfire rate will probably be very low and Cloud will get slaughtered. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
CBX rules: only Teemo is allowed from LoL |
I
think 1v1 largely solves the problem. Just keep League of Legends away
from FFVII in the bracket, make it face universally popular games like
OOT and SMB3. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
It became weaker because a) World Champs and b) you don't need to rally hard when you are winning so easily. Of course if vote totals ever go back to even 2004 levels we should be able to counter it without too much trouble. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest |
I
think if Allen wants to back up his words in the bonus poll topic with
action, he will make a decisive move to fix this and ban Draven/LoL in
the future. Will he act with that sort of integrity, though? Given his lies, the jury is out. --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. Raytan did pretty well. |
I
suppose 1v1, 48 hours for the last 2 rounds could work. I don't think
the Subreddit mods could stand 48 hours of that crap, but that's also
longer that we have to keep the Draven monster at bay since just an hour
of him at his best is enough to negate several hours of other
characters' cuts. --- "That choke point bridge in Chapter 2 completely changed my strategy as well as my views on life." - WestbrickIII |
48 hours probably won't work, the last 24 hours would not get many votes and it gives LoL more time to rally other places. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Congrats to raytan for winning the Guru Contest |
Here's the math for 1v1: Allen said that Draven won new votes over Link at a 60/40 ratio. Based on unrallied Draven being turbofodder here, Link might win on Gamefaqs 90/10. Let's say 80/20 because Link still has some antivotes and base Draven now is probably far stronger than in round 1. At 60/40 for outside votes, and 80/20 for Gamefaqs votes, there needs to be 3 times as many outside votes as Gamefaqs votes for Draven to win. Important Gamefaqs polls bring in around 50,000 votes right now. That requires around 150,000 outside votes to beat that. Reddit is probably around 80% of outside votes. So 120,000 votes. They have not demonstrated the ability to bring in anywhere close to that. Yet. The mod rally was rather special because the backfire rate was far lower than usual. It was splitting around 80/10/10. This seems very hard to replicate. Even with this kind of backfire rate, the overall outside vote split in the final was probably still a bit less than 70/20/10. Close to 70/30 in 1v1. Which would require 1.5 times as many outside votes as Gamefaqs votes to equalize. They can get 1.5x, but not much more than that. Link is a little stronger than Snake (on reddit), the final was held on the day of the LoL world championship, when traffic was unusually high, and the mod rally that stated this board was trying to manipulate reddit votes in unlikely to be replicated. OOT is probably even harder to rally against than Link- and is also generally just stronger relative to the field. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Not_Wylvane posted... Banning LoL stuff seems unfair, but then there's not really a good alternative, though maybe things would be different in 1v1. Ahem~ Darkemaste posted...
--- Common sense seems more uncommon. |
It became weaker because a) World Champs and b) you don't need to rally hard when you are winning so easily. It was so strong because people were there waiting for the World Championship. (b) is not true. The topic remained on the top of r/lol for 7.5 hours. There's no effort involved here, as with a conventional rally. It weakened because more and more of their readers had already seen it. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Yeah, I'm not sure 48 hours helps. Probably about the same as 24 hours. But there's a big difference between 12 and 24. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
People the next contest will be around in 10 months. Everything will have been forgotten by then. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
lightning-02 posted... People who answered they have it or intend to get it at some point from the Got X polls nearest each release: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3102 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5268 If you compare the last poll option in both polls, it's not much of a drop at all. Also, in this poll, the last poll option started out with over 54% at the board vote and it's been losing percentage for the entire poll. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Safer_777 posted... People the next contest will be around in 10 months. Everything will have been forgotten by then. If we run a poll of "rallied Draven vs "number of times Crono/Mario 2 was mentioned this contest"" it would be super close This board doesn't forget things easily |
charmander6000 posted... It became weaker because a) World Champs and b) you don't need to rally hard when you are winning so easily. Looking back at some old stats topics, there were people complaining about the 2004 level vote totals that came as a result of the site layout change that year. If we could even get those vote totals back, it would be better than what we have now. It's even worse than the vote totals from the first 2 rounds of the 2002 contest. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Mario/Crono 2 probably had more mentions than the Villains Contest, Female Bracket, and the Rivalry Rumble. Combined. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
So for the weakest character in every round we have. Round 1=Chester Round 2=Yoshimitsu Round 3=Blue Round 4=Red Round 5=Samus. Not bad. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
I really doubt Blue loses to L-block. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO raytan NO PEACE] |
So
you think L-Block is weaker than Blue in a 24 hour match? I don't know
actually. Assuming with no rallies I guess you are right? --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
Blue > Leon Kennedy --- raytanFEAR |
- Team Aqua Elite (37)
- Board List
- Topic List
- Track Topic
- Topic Closed
