Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1182

#351 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2013 6:20:27 PM | message detail
At noon (when the victory topic went up), this match had 106.5% of the votes in the Samus/MM/Red match. We are now at 108.5%. And there are twice as many votes naturally from 0:00 to 12:00 as 12:00 to now. So we've been around 112.5% of the Samus match in the last 9 hours. That works out to about 1000 votes.

Okay, not as much as suggested by the last hour, but it's been slowly moving up on r/lol over the afternoon, so I guess that makes sense. Plus short term variance within an hour.
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#352 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/16/2013 6:21:03 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Can we be sure that increase isn't attributable to just the natural increase in votals for the bonus poll we've seen in the past?


now that's what I'm thinking, personally: votals have been higher throughout the match compared to Cloud/Squirtle/Leon, the highest-scoring non-Draven match this contest
#353 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2013 6:23:10 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#354 | LOLContests | Posted 9/16/2013 6:25:34 PM | message detail
I don't really think that Snake has increased as much as everyone says he has, everyone around him has just collapsed that much faster. Personally, I still think 2008 is the strongest Snake we've ever seen, and by a decent margin. If I had to put this in BL terms, I would have Snake's rankings as:

2008: 45
2010: 40
2013: 38

So, while I still think Snake is stronger than he was when these things first started, I honestly don't think it's by all that much.
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#355 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2013 6:25:55 PM | message detail
Haste_2 posted...
Mega Man put up a better fight in 2007 than in this contest! Sure, maybe there's a difference between Yoshi and Red being in the poll, but Nintendo leeching via Pokemon is not immaterial.


I have zero doubt in my mind that if the match were Samus/Yoshi/Mega Man instead of Samus/Red/Mega Man that Mega Man would have cruised to victory this year. There's a massive difference between conventional Nintendo and Pokemon, as we've seen repeatedly.

The only matches suggesting Samus' weakness are the final match (absolutely pitiful), and maybe her score on Tifa.... but Tifa looked beastly in Round 1, and is evidently stronger than Auron based on L-Block. And I'll add that Auron looked strong himself to me, not any weaker than past contests.


Tifa is resistant to FF7's fall for a pair of big reasons, but by no means should she be immune. And on one more extremely pertinent note... you shouldn't be extrapolating through L-Block if you have any appreciation for how ridiculous his round to round changes were. Might as well set Tidus at Squall's level.
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#356 | Skull007o_O | Posted 9/16/2013 6:30:19 PM | message detail
Snake has never won

Anything, at all

This was supposed to be his year. It's the year of the snake in the chinese calendar... he was getting the love he, as a deep, heroic, legendary character, deserves

He even got support from guys like hayter and kojima. You don't see that every day

And still, he lost

I'm buttasticly butterfly buttmad
#357 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/16/2013 6:30:45 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Tifa is resistant to FF7's fall for a pair of big reasons


hurr hurr very punny KH!
#358 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2013 6:32:54 PM | message detail
Skull007o_O posted...
Snake has never won

Anything, at all

This was supposed to be his year. It's the year of the snake in the chinese calendar... he was getting the love he, as a deep, heroic, legendary character, deserves

He even got support from guys like hayter and kojima. You don't see that every day

And still, he lost

I'm buttasticly butterfly buttmad


this poster is a hero and a saint and quite beautiful too I imagine
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#359 | Haste_2 | Posted 9/16/2013 6:33:33 PM | message detail
Again, see Tifa's round 1 match. Maybe she dropped, maybe she didn't.

Would you care to enlighten me on matches showing that Pokemon isn't much of a leecher? Luigi/Pikachu in 2007 seems to indicate it, as does MissingNo/Banjo (don't laugh, weaklings really can cause damage), off the top of my head.
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#360 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2013 6:34:12 PM | message detail
Well, there's a fundamental problem with extrapolating across years: what do we even mean anymore when we compare these characters to Base Link?

Take today's Link- or for that matter, the Link who faced Draven- and put him up against 2003 Link, time warped from 2003, and complete with 2003 votals, and he gets utterly destroyed. Like tripled.
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#361 | pjbasis | Posted 9/16/2013 6:34:16 PM | message detail
It is ironic that the rallies more than likely stole a Snake win instead of actually someone that usually wins.
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#362 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2013 6:37:13 PM | message detail
Tifa had reasons to overperform in her R1 match that people like me and Leon were calling before the match. R2 was decidedly unimpressive especially considering how poor Dragonborn did in R1.

Pokemon can leech to an extent, but that would matter in a match like... Samus/Red/Tifa. Mega Man functions as a pseudo-Nintendo entity so it takes something with a stronger connection than Pokemon to alter that result. Samus was probably hurt a touch more, but nothing that would make her look massively better.
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#363 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2013 6:37:38 PM | message detail
It was part of Link's grand plan. He knew Bacon was trying to make him lose, and that he would likely lose to Snake in the finals due to LFF, so he summoned up League of Legends to challenge him to make him stronger. He allowed the downtime to happen knowing that the 1v1 at the end of the contest is all that matters.

Then he was going to beat Draven today, but his grand plan was foiled when Board 8 failed him and voted down his rematch with Draven. So he had to settle for beating Snake. Better than losing to Snake, I suppose, but overall a failure despite the brilliance of the plan.
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#364 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/16/2013 6:59:20 PM | message detail
So how does Alucard fit in
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#365 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/16/2013 7:02:21 PM | message detail
I have no idea what poll we are getting later tonight. If it wasn't for the bonus match today, we would have gotten "What did you think of this year's Character Battle?" for today's poll. But with the bonus match happening today and Grand Theft Auto V coming out tomorrow, it's very unlikely we will get "What did you think of this year's Character Battle?" for tomorrow's poll.

So it's possible that tomorrow's poll will be "Got Grand Theft Auto V?".
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#366 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2013 7:02:34 PM | message detail
Huh... Snake keeping over Cloud 2006 looks all but assured, and he's got an excellent shot at staying over Cloud 2010 too to make this the best score anyone's put up on Link mano-a-mano since 2005. Didn't see that one coming.

...how bad does your SNV have to be to get stalled by Snake's Link
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#367 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:05:05 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I have no idea what poll we are getting later tonight. If it wasn't for the bonus match today, we would have gotten "What did you think of this year's Character Battle?" for today's poll. But with the bonus match happening today and Grand Theft Auto V coming out tomorrow, it's very unlikely we will get "What did you think of this year's Character Battle?" for tomorrow's poll.

So it's possible that tomorrow's poll will be "Got Grand Theft Auto V?".


one more day for the reddit trolls to leave
#368 | JJH777 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:07:41 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I have no idea what poll we are getting later tonight. If it wasn't for the bonus match today, we would have gotten "What did you think of this year's Character Battle?" for today's poll. But with the bonus match happening today and Grand Theft Auto V coming out tomorrow, it's very unlikely we will get "What did you think of this year's Character Battle?" for tomorrow's poll.

So it's possible that tomorrow's poll will be "Got Grand Theft Auto V?".


Surprise Link vs Draven!!!!!
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#369 | Skull007o_O | Posted 9/16/2013 7:09:27 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I have no idea what poll we are getting later tonight. If it wasn't for the bonus match today, we would have gotten "What did you think of this year's Character Battle?" for today's poll. But with the bonus match happening today and Grand Theft Auto V coming out tomorrow, it's very unlikely we will get "What did you think of this year's Character Battle?" for tomorrow's poll.

So it's possible that tomorrow's poll will be "Got Grand Theft Auto V?".


Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't tonight the midnight release? Assuming it is, not everyone will be getting it tonight, so maybe they'll wait until tomorrow

But even if that happens, the amount of salt GFAQs has right know is too elevated to post something like that
#370 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/16/2013 7:10:54 PM | message detail
Alas, there is no match to look forward to tonight. This is saddening.
#371 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/16/2013 7:10:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, tonight will be the midnight release, but we always get those "Got Game?" polls on the same day the game comes out, not one day after it's been released.
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#372 | SgtSphynx | Posted 9/16/2013 7:13:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, tonight is the midnight release, I'm not picking mine up until tomorrow though.
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#373 | Lopen | Posted 9/16/2013 7:13:23 PM | message detail
Man this is a real disappointment for me from Snake. I know I know this is ahead of what previous year's projections would be by like 5-6% but yeah still kinda gross that Link really is still unbeatable. I really thought he looked vulnerable this year!

Makes me feel like GameFAQs deserved to get Dravened, at least a little.
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#374 | Haste_2 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:13:56 PM | message detail
Anyone who reads this wall of text is way too obsessed with x-stats!

Yeah, I forgot that Tifa had a good reason to overperform in R1. I'll give you that. The L-Block explanation? Hmmm, L-Block fell from 46% to 44% on Crono, so L-Block does have some potential for damage in increased competition. At least we can still safely say Auron has some strength (he's one of my favorites, okay?!)! Also, there's room for L-Block/Tifa to be only a couple points off of their true strength for Tifa to be above Auron... and Tifa was indeed above Auron in the previous character contest.

Mega Man functions as a sort of pseudo-Nintendo entity, of course... and we also saw that Mega Man X can take advantage of leeching from Luigi or Zelda. Still, there's no match that really shows us that Pokemon leeching is limited, unless you can show me one (Charizard/Zelda/DK suggested that Charizard was quite vulnerable). Still, you're probably right. It's hard to imagine Tifa being stronger than she was in 2010. If you extrapolate Samus from 2010 Tifa, Samus 2010 beats Samus 2013 with 53%!

Oh, and actually, I see Luigi held up well on Master Chief given Pikachu's presence. Pikachu evidently held Samus back against Vincent/Crono, though, so whatever.

It's hard to win an argument against KH! There's still one hole, though: no evidence to argue either way for whether Red hurt Samus more than Mega Man. Can this be solved? If you take Samus/Tifa and Tifa = Tifa 2010, Samus weakened. If you take L-Block, bump it from 37% to 40% on Samus indirectly, and assuming L-Block = Auron = Auron 2010, Samus seems to be exactly where she was as in 2010. If Samus = Samus 2010, Mega Man is at 40.70% on 2010 Link. That's pretty much his ceiling. And if Link 2010 is weaker than the original BL, it makes it seem like Mega Man, unfortunately, did not boost in the slightest. Oh, no.... if I wanted to argue that Mega Man boosted, I do not want to even try to argue Link 2010 is higher than 47.5%ish on BL! (that would be a big debate by itself!)

Ahhhh, we've seen Tifa overperform on Samus before! Conclusion: Samus 55/45's her old self, and Mega Man also boosted! ;-) (just kidding)
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#375 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:16:57 PM | message detail
Oh my Bacon if you give us a surprise Link vs. Draven tonight I'll vote for you over CJayC in the next Gamefaqs admins contest.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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#376 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:17:17 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Man this is a real disappointment for me from Snake. I know I know this is ahead of what previous year's projections would be by like 5-6% but yeah still kinda gross that Link really is still unbeatable. I really thought he looked vulnerable this year!

Makes me feel like GameFAQs deserved to get Dravened, at least a little.


Link/Snake/Samus with Link still being saddled with anti-votes seems VERY winnable for Snake
#377 | Lopen | Posted 9/16/2013 7:18:04 PM | message detail
Oh yeah I have no doubt that Snake would probably win with Samus or Mario in a three way but I was really thinking he'd have it in him to make it competitive straight up this year.
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#378 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:21:19 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Oh yeah I have no doubt that Snake would probably win with Samus or Mario in a three way but I was really thinking he'd have it in him to make it competitive straight up this year.


you can thank Draven for boosting Link again!
#379 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2013 7:25:47 PM | message detail | (edited)
47% is another huge jump for Snake on Link, all things considered. I'm personally sure it would have been higher if this was the finals of a 1v1 contest we had this year where Draven had never existed.

Snake's percentage on Link has been spiking up higher and higher ever since 2005. Link was just so far ahead to start that people aren't appreciating this for the monstrous performance that it is. Even against Link 2010, arguably the weakest Link ever by a huge margin, Snake 2010 is only projected to get 44.5%.
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#380 | GloriousSweater (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/16/2013 7:23:00 PM | message detail
Link would have gotten whatever he needed to win.
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#381 | pjbasis | Posted 9/16/2013 7:24:17 PM | message detail
FINAL CHESTER (Dancin') STATS INCOMING
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#382 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:24:28 PM | message detail
This is a fear-inducing performance for sure. Now to give Snake the Cloud treatment for the next 10 years- always above 46% but never above 48.5%,
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
#383 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:26:52 PM | message detail
Link looks like he's going to come just short of what he got on Cloud in 2010. So vulnerable, I don't like it.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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#384 | Darkemaste | Posted 9/16/2013 7:27:35 PM | message detail
JJH777 posted...

Surprise Link vs Draven!!!!!

Don't even joke about it mang.
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#385 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/16/2013 7:29:51 PM | message detail
We just surpassed the vote totals of this year's age poll with this update. Cloud/Squrtle/Leon was the only other non-Draven match to get more votes than this year's age poll, but that one had thousands of rallied votes.
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#386 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:31:28 PM | message detail
What's the significance of the age poll? Was it the regular poll with the highest votals?
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#387 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:32:24 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
We just surpassed the vote totals of this year's age poll with this update. Cloud/Squrtle/Leon was the only other non-Draven match to get more votes than this year's age poll, but that one had thousands of rallied votes.


huh,what age poll
#388 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/16/2013 7:33:11 PM | message detail
The age poll has consistently brought in very high vote totals for a non-contest poll. On 3 different occasions, an age poll got over 120000 votes. It doesn't hold the record for highest vote totals in a non-contest poll, though.
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#389 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/16/2013 7:33:38 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
huh,what age poll


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5097
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#390 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:34:49 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
The age poll has consistently brought in very high vote totals for a non-contest poll. On 3 different occasions, an age poll got over 120000 votes. It doesn't hold the record for highest vote totals in a non-contest poll, though.


and which one is the highest non-contest poll
#391 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/16/2013 7:37:43 PM | message detail | (edited)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2576

That poll happened just 2 days after the final match of the 2006 Character Battle. The poll also happened one day after the Wii was released, so those circumstances created the perfect storm for insane vote totals. There had to be extremely high traffic that day because the PS3/Wii/360 generation officially started when the Wii got released.
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#392 | SgtSphynx | Posted 9/16/2013 7:40:01 PM | message detail
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 9/16/2013 10:37:43 PM | #391
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2576

At that time I had to vote for none of them, had they rerun that in '09, I would have voted for the top option.
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#393 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/16/2013 7:45:42 PM | message detail
yo Karma Hunter
Link just doubled Snake on that update
where you at son
#394 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2013 7:46:35 PM | message detail
It's the Snake SNV I can't help it unless it's a 50/50 match
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#395 | Darkemaste | Posted 9/16/2013 7:57:03 PM | message detail
Any of you guys aware of this btw?

TheEnigmaBlade posted...
I wasn't originally going to do this since we keep mod messages private, but this will hopefully clear up all confusion on the conflicting statements:

http://i.imgur.com/Hy2q9yV.png

I'm done with GameFAQs now.

I have to admit this is......rather interesting.
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#396 | Sorozone | Posted 9/16/2013 8:03:26 PM | message detail
So...it was Allen or what?
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#397 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/16/2013 8:04:45 PM | message detail
if Enigma was willing to leak it, we better demand SBAllen leak his side too
#398 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/16/2013 8:07:59 PM | message detail
Based on the last hour, Link might actually have a chance at reaching his percentage on Cloud back in 2010.
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#399 | Darkemaste | Posted 9/16/2013 8:09:57 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#400 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2013 8:15:53 PM | message detail
Only 45 more minutes of this SNV to hold on to secure the best 1v1 performance on Link since 2005, Snake

you can do it I believe
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