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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1182
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Karma Hunter posted... I'd take Sephiroth > Mewtwo in an instant for a 1v1 contest next year. ...Explain 'Charizarded' --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
1v1 changes so much. L-Block? Never happens in 1v1. Draven? Loses in R3 to Link in 1v1 (whether or not he'd beat him now). This match? Without multi-way polls, Link would not have lost a match since Cloud in 2003. The hate and resentment would have kept building, with no release valve with L-Block or Draven. Snake might very well win this match. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
DidYouMWISMe posted... Karma Hunter posted...I'd take Sephiroth > Mewtwo in an instant for a 1v1 contest next year. Dropping in power immensely probably. From 46% on Mario to struggling to beat Zelda and losing to a crippled Mega Man. I too would go with Sephiroth. --- Rapid Spin Critical Hit. |
DidYouMWISMe posted... Karma Hunter posted...I'd take Sephiroth > Mewtwo in an instant for a 1v1 contest next year. Beats Bowser. Puts up a great show on Mario. Exposed as a fraud here who needed rallies to beat a Zelda leashed by DK and loses to MM with Zero there! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
DidYouMWISMe posted... red sox 777 posted...Backfire is the only thing that kept Link and Snake in those matches. It did, because we HAVE seen Draven do work with no backfire impact. Check out Draven/Megaman X/Ryu on gamefaqscontests. According to Lopen's stats, the two latter entrants combined pulled anywhere from 10% of the rallied votes...to 2%. If Draven faced a theoretically superpowerful character who wouldn't benefit from a vote split (like 2003 Cloud, maybe?), he'd be a ridiculous monster. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
DidYouMWISMe posted... Karma Hunter posted...I'd take Sephiroth > Mewtwo in an instant for a 1v1 contest next year. Charizard was supposed to romp with ease en route toward possibly making the finals after his run in 2010. He barely beat Zelda and got outrallied by Mega Man in a match where he was ridiculously favored. The last one is hard to stress how insulting it is to his pedigree. A Pokemon. Getting outrallied. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Link's winning, but not by nearly as much as he'd have wiped the floor with Snake in previous years. So I'd say this bonus match is pretty cool as a Snake fan. It's validation that Snake's been continuing to gain popularity while Link might actually be losing a step or two. Most of the Noble Nine have been declining; Snake's gone from the weak link in the group to (most likely) 2nd place. Not sure if that trajectory will ever reach a point where Snake could beat Link 1 v 1, but he has a better shot than anyone else who isn't Reddit-rallied or joke-rallied like Draven and L-Block were, respectively. --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
1vs1 battle forever --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baUY9LFlYh0 - KokorokokoroKOKOROkokoROKokoro-chan iu na http://myanimelist.net/animelist/raytan7585 |
Karma Hunter posted...
...Heh. Clearly, I've missed a lot. I'll just settle on the Pokemon being 'weird and unpredictable' and call it a day. Not sure how to reconcile any of that with Squirtle sneaking by Cloud. Really I just don't know anything about Pokemon aside from the fact it exists. --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
DidYouMWISMe posted... Karma Hunter posted...Charizard won a (weak) division in his contest debut in 2010 by beating Duke Nukem, God of War III-hype-fueled Kratos, L-block, and Bowser. He seemed to gather bandwagon support over time, had a Pokemon game released during the Bowser match, and ended up at over 46% on Mario. He was hyped as a potential Noble Nine-breaker afterwards but there were lots of doubts because of just how overrated that Mario performance made his earlier opponents looked. Then this year, sans-bandwagon and release factor, he collapsed hilariously.I'd take Sephiroth > Mewtwo in an instant for a 1v1 contest next year. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO raytan NO PEACE] |
What's
even weirder is that Draven is probably fairly close to linear, if you
factor out effects like the wording and timing of the rally thread.
Basically, you are running 2 polls: one on Gamefaqs that gets around
60,000 votes, and one on the League of Legends subreddit that gets
around 90,000 votes. Both polls are likely shockingly close to linear
independently. More linear than FFVII and Pokemon on this site nowadays
are. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Snake has gone from being worth 33% on Link at his nadir to over 48% at the time of this posting. Him beating Link is patently not impossible, but as Cloud can tell you this guy doesn't f*** around. He needs MGSV to be a huge hit and then probably some other favorable circumstance to take him down legit. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Hey, who remembers this thing RySenkari did? http://www.bracketmaker.com/tlist.cfm?tid=446439 He did all sorts of fun BS like a cute Pokémon being rallied above Cloud and the final battle being Link vs. Snake and Snake getting 48% on him lol like that would ever happen --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
red sox 777 posted... What's even weirder is that Draven is probably fairly close to linear, if you factor out effects like the wording and timing of the rally thread. Basically, you are running 2 polls: one on Gamefaqs that gets around 60,000 votes, and one on the League of Legends subreddit that gets around 90,000 votes. Both polls are likely shockingly close to linear independently. More linear than FFVII and Pokemon on this site nowadays are. This...is probably true, actually. I kinda want to contest those numbers (Draven feels like a character who draws in 60k votes normally on Reddit), but otherwise it seems sound. Draven has a neo-FF7 night vote, collapses during the day, but rebounds as rally intensity hits pitch and alternative channels are tapped into. We've seen this happen again and again. The only anomaly is his Round 2 performance, but I believe that's because that match was effectively a 1v1 between League of Legends and 2013 Capcom. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
But notably Snake's potential for turning this around is a lot
brighter than Cloud's ever was. Cloud has essentially been running off
one game and a few cameos for over a decade now. He just doesn't have
boost potential like Snake does. Snake's releases are so high profile and important to him that he never fails to boost a ton whenever a major one drops. Which makes sense, after all, he's only had four (five counting Brawl). --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Karma Hunter posted... But notably Snake's potential for turning this around is a lot brighter than Cloud's ever was. Cloud has essentially been running off one game and a few cameos for over a decade now. He just doesn't have boost potential like Snake does. The issue being, of course, that Snake also drops SUPER hard when he doesn't get stuff, IIRC. That lines up with his 2004 performance and his 2005 rebound, right? --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
Karma Hunter posted... Snake has gone from being worth 33% on Link at his nadir to over 48% at the time of this posting. I think the favorable circumstance is that Skyward Sword wasn't the critical hit for a console Zelda than it could have been, and nothing's on the horizon right now. Imagine if Zelda were to get a console release of the critical reception of say...Super Mario Galaxy. There would be no hope for Snake. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! I may be the greatone, but raytan is a greatguru. |
DoctorJimmy133 posted... Hey, who remembers this thing RySenkari did? oh god lol vincent --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO raytan NO PEACE] |
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Has Snake really had an off-year since 2004, though? It seems to me like his trajectory's been more a diagonal line shooting upward since that low point. --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
DidYouMWISMe posted... KanzarisKelshen posted... The time after MGS4 and before anything else of import might have counted. Not sure though, as he hasn't gone two-three years without a game since. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
_SecretSquirrel posted... Karma Hunter posted...Snake has gone from being worth 33% on Link at his nadir to over 48% at the time of this posting. Eh, critical acclaim doesn't matter so much for GameFAQs. SMG has snagged just about every accolade you can and it's pitifully weak anyway. GameFAQs just doesn't care about it. Link also just has a very difficult time boosting from his games now because he had so many. Snake only has 4 titles that he's drawing strength from, not counting SSB. Each game in Link's corner is a much smaller share of his overall strength and can't affect the overall package as much. Hype seems to be the strongest factor for Link as opposed to his actual games dropping. I firmly hold that the strongest Links we've ever seen were Link 2004 (Twilight Princess trailer hype) and Link 2006 (Twilight Princess releasing right as the Battle Royale was happening). The game's release itself from a purely literal standpoint actually weakened him. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Snake's
biggest concern at this point may be maintaining his underdog status.
He's been the chosen underdog of the site for the last 5 years now. The
last time the site dismissed him as unimportant was the 2007 final when
he was Last Place Factored. Since then, he has replaced Cloud as
Link's challenger, and embarassed Cloud/Sephiroth repeatedly. I was proclaiming "Snake always wins" as joking propaganda for Link, but for FFVII fans it probably feels like reality by now. Cloud's 2010 win is pretty the only victory FFVII has had over Snake since 2007. And 2007 doesn't even feel like a victory because Cloud came in 3rd to Link and a Tetris piece. And now, Snake has made a contest final that did not have Link or Cloud. He is currently over 48% on Link. I don't know how much longer the site will accept him as their plucky underdog. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Probably for about as long the site accepts Pokemon as their plucky underdogs imhhho --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
If it's as long as the site thought FFVII always won, that may be a long time. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
red sox 777 posted...
In the future, I'd like to see a return of the traditional 1 v 1 contest matchups, with Link grandfathered into a Hall of Fame, and the winner challenging Link in a Bonus Match. That's probably too vanilla a formula, but it'd be a great way to gauge the current popularity of the rest of the NN in matches. So long as Draven doesn't distort everything via more Reddit rallies, anyway. (Though I don't know how that'd reasonably be prevented absent banning League of Legends characters entirely, which might not go over well.) --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
Hey,
with Charizard dropping the turd of the contest and making the rest of
his Pokepals all look bad, I'd say he's bought the series another three
years. --- raytan's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg |
In a traditional 1v1 character bracket Draven probably can't get enough nominations to make the field. Absent a massive nomination rally push which would be quite a bit more involved than the r/LoL rallies. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
red sox 777 posted... And now, Snake has made a contest final that did not have Link or Cloud. He is currently over 48% on Link. I don't know how much longer the site will accept him as their plucky underdog. It's hard to say, because the people that complain about the status quo of our contests don't seem to realize anything that's happened in them since 2004 aside from L-Block, and I'm sure Draven will be remembered as a meme character like L. But I'd wager the site at large won't group him in that category until he actually wins a first place. It's the only thing they actually remember. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! I may be the greatone, but raytan is a greatguru. |
Draven
just won a contest; I don't think he'll have to worry about nomination
support for as long as these contests are around. Trolls alone will get
him in. Also, not to undersell the length to which SB tweaked the seeds,
but he did get a 3 seed this time around. He probably could have made a
128 character field this year. --- raytan's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg |
Karma Hunter posted... In a traditional 1v1 character bracket Draven probably can't get enough nominations to make the field. Absent a massive nomination rally push which would be quite a bit more involved than the r/LoL rallies. Unlikely. He's won a contest, he'll make the field. And besides that, I think the Board Noms showed that he had a big amount of support, much bigger than most. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
DID I HEAR SOMEONE SAY 1-ON-1 Division 1 (1) Draven (16) Ness (8) Aerith Gainsborough (9) Dragonborn (5) The Boss (12) Lloyd Irving (4) Crono (13) Cole MacGrath (6) Captain Falcon (11) Missingno (3) Kefka (14) Balthier Bunansa (7) Vivi Ornitier (10) Ryu (2) GlaDOS (15) Cecil Harvey Division 2 (1) Sephiroth (16) Amaterasu (8) Protoman (9) Dr. Robotnik (5) Scorpion (12) Heavy (4) Squirtle (13) Master Chief (6) Yoshi (11) Booker DeWitt (3) Barret Wallace (14) Shulk (7) Crash Bandicoot (10) Magikarp (2) Phoenix Wright (15) Jill Valentine Division 3 (1) Solid Snake (16) Reimu Hakurei (8) Spyro the Dragon (9) Auron (5) Waluigi (12) Riku (4) Charizard (13) Little Mac (6) Epona (11) Isaac BOI (3) Pikachu (14) Thrall (7) Ike (10) Lucina (2) Marth (15) Clementine Division 4 (1) Mewtwo (16) Tingle (8) L-Block (9) Wheatley (5) Tifa Lockhart (12) Fox McCloud (4) Zelda (13) Ridley (6) Garrus Vakarian (11) Fei Fong Wong (3) Samus Aran (14) Lugia (7) Gilgamesh (10) Zidane Tribal (2) Bowser (15) Nathan Drake Division 5 (1) Chie Satonaka (16) Pac-Man (8) Commander Shepard (9) Miles Edgeworth (5) Altair (12) Meta Knight (4) Ryu Hayabusa (13) Tom Nook (6) Pokemon Trainer Red (11) Yuna (3) Sora (14) Urdnot Wrex (7) Elizabeth (10) Mordin Solus (2) Vincent Valentine (15) Donkey Kong Division 6 (1) Jak (16) Ezio Auditore da Firenze (8) Ratchet (9) Rydia (5) Dracula (12) Slime (4) Sub-Zero (13) Zero (6) Mega Man X (11) Pokemon Trainer Blue (3) Raiden (14) Pyramid Head (7) Dante (10) Frog (2) Big Boss (15) Yoshimitsu Division 7 (1) Sonic the Hedgehog (16) Captain Olimar (8) Midna (9) Squall Leonhart (5) Lara Croft (12) Princess Peach (4) Mega Man (13) Ramza Beoulve (6) Morrigan Aensland (11) Bayonetta (3) Zack Fair (14) Revolver Ocelot (7) Nightmare (10) Poison (2) Kirby (15) Chun-Li Division 8 (1) Link (16) Knuckles the Echidna (8) Professor Layton (9) Chrom (5) KOS-MOS (12) Agent 47 (4) Cloud Strife (13) Big Daddy (6) Alucard (11) Tidus (3) Terra Branford (14) John Marston (7) Mario (10) Isaac (Golden Sun) (2) Luigi (15) Aya Brea LOOK AT IT LOOK AT IT --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
red sox 777 posted... Backfire is the only thing that kept Link and Snake in those matches. Get this: Samus, the one who was abandoned horribly, and facing stronger competition........received nearly 7000 more votes yesterday than in her victorious semifinal match against Megaman and Red. Reddit probably rallied well in excess of 10,000 votes yesterday.....for Samus. Thats probably more than what they did for Snake, I did mention quite a few people on r/leagueoflegends being vocal about not voting Draven over Samus. I'd imagine the ones that voted Link from there would of voted for her anyway, as previously mentioned numerous times. --- Common sense seems more uncommon. |
GloriousSweater posted... Draven just won a contest; I don't think he'll have to worry about nomination support for as long as these contests are around. Trolls alone will get him in. Also, not to undersell the length to which SB tweaked the seeds, but he did get a 3 seed this time around. He probably could have made a 128 character field this year. 3 seeds were rigged (much like many other seeds). Check all the other 3 seeds and you'll see the common thread. And it just may not be enough. We've had concentrated pushes for characters that didn't make the field at all. Guru noms, even. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
...Can't complain about any bracket that has Chie Satonaka as a 1 seed. --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
Even with raw X-stats, Mario always ****ing gets stuck meeting Link, screw this --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
You're assuming Mario survives the Year of Luigi A dangerous mistake --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
GloriousSweater posted... Draven just won a contest; I don't think he'll have to worry about nomination support for as long as these contests are around. Trolls alone will get him in. Also, not to undersell the length to which SB tweaked the seeds, but he did get a 3 seed this time around. He probably could have made a 128 character field this year. It depends on how much you think he actually screwed with those seeds. Remember, the three seeds might have been the top new characters, but there are other new characters in the upper seeds (Tharja, Booker) that suggest they were still pretty high up in nominations. I think anyone of those three seeds would have made a 128 contest this year, and Draven's win will guarantee his presence for many years to come (as long as we keep bringing them back), just like L-Block. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! I may be the greatone, but raytan is a greatguru. |
...59.5% update on Link. Don't see that too often. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
DidYouMWISMe posted... Crono over Sephiroth? Really?My theory is that the FFVII generation is either pretty much gone from this site or have more or less moved on from the game. What you've got left would be Final Fantasy and RPG fans in general. And Final Fantasy fans never ever ever agree with each other on how to rank the series! FFVII should still end up at the top of the FF hierarchy but not by that much, and it can't really compete with Zelda and against the anti-votes if it's not the overwhelming favorite. Squall and FFX characters seem maybe slightly weaker; the FFVII generation had certainly at least played their games. That those and FFVII are the ones stagnating or weakening also may not be unconnected with their characters having benefited the most from Kingdom Hearts, which looked bad in 2010 and terrible this contest. FFIX characters benefited a lot because it was never that popular in general but it does tend to be well thought of by FF fans. Ramza...looks around the same, maybe slightly better. SNES FF characters boosted through the roof because the general Final Fantasy fanbase has actually played and like the games, something I really don't think was true of the FFVII generation. Kefka never should have been as weak as he was back in the day otherwise considering how strong FFVI was (personally think that was just blind series voting and FFI having been so strong supports that imo; also FFT almost beating Metal Gear Solid what), but he boosted a lot in 2010 and went completely insane this contest. And lol FFXII/FFXIII --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO raytan NO PEACE] |
Kefka
boosted because of Dissidia. We've gone over this. And I don't think
that theory is really sound. I think that, plain and simple, the reason
FF is weaker in general is due to votals. It's a much more 'casual'
series than Zelda or Mario, odd as that may sound. The reason I think
this is that Mario and Zelda tend to be formative gaming experiences.
Most people play at least one of their games during childhood and become
enormously attached to them both because they are consistently good,
and because they represent a simpler, happier time. FF targets an older
audience and by that point attachments to specific things are less
strong, plus the lack of a unifying thread between games means you can't
'grow up' with a consistent set of characters like you can with the
Triforce group or Mario, Luigi, Bowser and Peach. Remeber when you used
to watch 100+ episode cartoons religiously, and multiple ones at that?
How often do you do the same thing for adult shows these days? --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
Yeah.
We've seen that if the voting is left up to GameFAQs members only, we'd
have things like Missingno beating Squall ? Block beating Rikku, Kirby
beating Sephiroth, etc. The users that stick around are heavily biased for Nintendo and the Square popularity comes more from outsiders that come in to vote. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Snake
officially now finds himself in the rarified company of Clouderoth as
the only three entities to ever win an hour over Link 1v1. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Most of that sounds pretty plausible too! Though I don't think Dissidia is anywhere close to sufficient to explain Kefka. He performed better on Snake this contest - the Snake that's doing extremely well on Link right now - than Epic Fraud Magus did against 2003 Link. Current Kefka would be projected to more than double Kefka at his low point around 2008. Dissidia doing that much seems very hard to believe, especially since Kefka looked like he boosted a lot again after 2010. Unless that was because of Dissidia Duodecim. In which case Square-Enix should get on Dissidia 3 ASAP so that Kefka can boost to the Noble Nine level he deserves and give us an epic 50/50 Kefka vs. Sephiroth match. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO raytan NO PEACE] |
Kefka
did well, but he still lost to GlaDOS. Both are still very good but
Snake almost certainly underperformed on them both. Take a quarter of
his traditional sprite underperformance (since he was exclusively Solid
S*** in 25% of the pictures) and add it to Snake's total and I think
that match lines up better. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Most people were actually disappointed with Kefka's performance in that match! --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Kefka
did about as well as could be expected. Escaping the doubling against
Solid Snake today is very, very good. He can't really help that GlaDOS
was just as impressive with her stellar Portal 2 boost. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Yeah, this is making it look like Kefka could avoid the doubling against Link or come darn close. That's a huge improvement for Kefka. GlaDOS, too, considering Kirby landed 68% on her in 2010. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif |
We dont need another Dissidia. Or hell just give the damn thing to someone and make it 2D. Couldnt be worse than what we got. --- Shoe Waifu saluting account |
Then00bAvenger posted... Most people were actually disappointed with Kefka's performance in that match!And I was saying before the match that some of them were completely out of their minds with their expectations and that they were setting themselves up for another round of "lol Kefka makes no sense!" Which is then exactly what happened. Dunno why people completely wrote off GLaDOS beating him. I picked Kefka for 2nd since he clearly had a good shot at it and I couldn't not pick him, but I figured it could be close; had Kefka narrowly winning in my Oracle. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO raytan NO PEACE] |
Snake making some nice cuts! If I didn't know Link was a day vote god I would be getting excited. --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
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