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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1182
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Karma Hunter posted... So much distaste. Is every match that isn't 50/50 a disappointment for you guys? :( Nah. It's just disappointing to pick this match out of all the options. I'd rather see a number of other matches, like Snake against Samus or Mario, or Megaman against Sonic again, or a number of other things. This particular match is both a snoozefest and dumb on the level of giving Smurf something to gloat about as well. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
Is it worth playing the original Metal Gear Solid if I already own and have played The Twin Snakes? The reasons I've heard for why TTS was inferior always seemed so petty.. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
I'll take it, Snake! Link will be a formidable foe even in the dead of night, but if you really push you might be able to see sight of the lead before the awful awful sunlight comes. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
I
still haven't played through the original MGS, believe it or not.
Settled on Twin Snakes instead. Apart from the Matrix cutscenes, does
the remake change Snake's character? --- raytan's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg |
AxemRedRanger posted... Is it worth playing the original Metal Gear Solid if I already own and have played The Twin Snakes? I'll say two things on that matter: 1. I have the fastest recorded Perfect Run for TTS - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U99u0qfJGV8 2. MGS is highly superior to TTS for a lot of reasons. I like TTS, I really do. But MGS is its own, really special thing. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Link/Snake was the best of our realistic options for this match. Maybe Samus/Snake but honestly I still think Snake walks away with that given the situation. Sure, I can think of hypothetical matches that I'd find more fun (Sephiroth/Crono/Sonic the hype isn't stopping!) but that just wouldn't make any sense to run here. Link/Draven is the kind of match that I don't know... after what happened to Snake not sure I wanted to deal with another 24 hours of that. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
My
only regret is that with Snake performing this well against Link in a 1
v 1, it would have been amazing if Link had beaten Draven as expected,
and Samus was present in the three-way finals to leech a few votes. We'd have had at least a few hours at night when Snake actually *led outright.* Add the potentiality of Hayter / Kojima tweeting then and it would've been awesome. --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
Karma Hunter posted... So much distaste. Is every match that isn't 50/50 a disappointment for you guys? :( Well I said that if Snake beat Draven I would play MGS instead of GTA V Oh well |
xp1337 posted... Link/Snake was the best of our realistic options for this match. Maybe Samus/Snake but honestly I still think Snake walks away with that given the situation. Link/Draven was brilliant before Smurf did his thing. Afterward it was pretty much worthless, but Snake/Samus would have been good. We all knew Snake was going to lose cleanly to Link, we didn't need to see it happen and have a farcical 'true final'. Much better to determine who the likely number 2 on the site is in a match that would be far more appealing. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
...Wait a minute. KH, if Snake wins this, do you have to write the 243-character FFP? --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO raytan NO PEACE] |
Snake's
character in MGS as opposed to TTS (leaving aside Matrix cutscenes) is
changed by a couple of things that are fairly, but not vitally
important: - David Hayter's delivery is better in MGS. It's by far his best VA'd title of the series, in all honesty. The gravel in Snake's voice isn't as omnipresent and he goes into better emotional ranges. It really conveys certain scenes in a way that the TTS delivery doesn't quite do justice to. - The way certain scenes are shot changes Snake's perspective on situations, and likewise the player's perspective on him. Even putting aside the Matrix stuff, he is far more fish out of water and... mortal in MGS. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
AxemRedRanger posted... ...Wait a minute. No. He has to finish Solid Snake, Ace Attorney though. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
Nanis23 posted... Karma Hunter posted...So much distaste. Is every match that isn't 50/50 a disappointment for you guys? :( Go play MGS no matter, Snake did put up a valiant fight against Draven before that League of Sticky fiasco. |
AxemRedRanger posted... ...Wait a minute. Hahaha no this isn't technically him winning the contest, Snake > Draven would have triggered that. ...I'm tempted to make an exception to see if we can really get some stuff rolling in Snake's favor but I'm patient. Snake can make another go at Link post-MGSV, and we'll bring the kitchen sink with us when he does. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... xp1337 posted...Link/Snake was the best of our realistic options for this match. Maybe Samus/Snake but honestly I still think Snake walks away with that given the situation. I'm confused. It wasn't like there was another Nintendo character in the finals to siphon votes away from Samus. And even assuming that a few Board Eight regulars might have checked the results before voting and would've supported Snake even if they preferred Samus, the vast majority of votes cast probably do reflect popular opinion. Snake decimated Samus in that match. Hell, if you just ignore Draven there, he was winning by a substantial percentage before Kojima and Hayter threw their hats in the ring. I'm confused as to how those results could be argued away to justify Samus having a legit shot in a 1 v 1. --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
Because
Samus was Last Place Factored. Voters always abandon the third
character in a match when the battle for first place gets hot. GameFAQS
chose to throw its support behind Snake before the match had even begun. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Because Samus was Last Place Factored. Voters always abandon the third character in a match when the battle for first place gets hot. GameFAQS chose to throw its support behind Snake before the match had even begun. You really think the vast majority of Snake / Samus voters were B8 regulars who'd bother with all of that, as opposed to just casting their vote for their favorite and moving on? There simply aren't thousands of people here. --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
Samus is not as bad as she looked relative to Snake as that match suggests. Or she is, and the "bottom of the Noble Nine" arguments just got solved and it's her despite beating Mega Man. >_> Link/Draven used to look kind of fun but against the guy pulling in 1000 vote updates? There's a limit to the extent I'm willing to unrealistically hype Link! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Samus has a shot on Snake. Not what I think is a particularly stellar
shot as her hanging even close to this much on Link indirectly is tough
to swallow. But a shot. She had a good contest this year. Snake's was
just better. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
DidYouMWISMe posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...Because Samus was Last Place Factored. Voters always abandon the third character in a match when the battle for first place gets hot. GameFAQS chose to throw its support behind Snake before the match had even begun. No, I think I understand the silent majority well. That's all. For reference, everybody believed Draven was going to 60-40 Link if the latter was lucky. I was one of...I think three voices saying that it was going to be close. I'm not infallible by any means, but in general I think it's easy to tell which way the pendulum will swing if you put an ear to the ground and speak with large enough group of people who each have different tastes. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
xp1337 posted... Samus is not as bad as she looked relative to Snake as that match suggests. I definitely think the unique dynamics of the Draven / Snake / Samus match had an impact. I just don't think that impact is numerically sufficient enough for Samus to make up the entirety of the difference in a 1 v 1 match against Snake in 2013. That gap was *massive.* It can't all be explained away by Kojima and Hayter's tweets, or the anti-Draven coalition among certain B8 regulars. --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
Come on Snake, let's get this down close to 50-50 before the morning vote. Moral victory, moral victory --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Oh, right, my final Noble Nine ranking. Link (:() Snake Samus Cloud Mario Mega Man Crono Sephiroth Sonic From Samus down to at least Crono things are amazingly crowded. Slight year to year changes could completely scramble it. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
I
think Snake wins! In fact, hold that match in place of this one and I
think Snake wins with an ease that would not hold up if you ran it a
month ago. I'm just saying in "normal" circumstances, I give Samus a shot there. I'm taking Snake, but he could lose that! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Sonic > Crono. I'd favor MM > Sonic for now though. --- nt |
Crono - the first Noble Niner to fall. Advances in most people's rankings. It really was a great contest for Crono! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Samus
has pretty much been the most consistent Noble Niner since Metroid
Prime was released. It's probably not close. And despite looking weaker
in 2010, Link has a pretty good case for second most consistent. I'm pretty sure Samus doesn't indirectly get 47% on Link or whatever Snake ends up with here on Link. Would imply a jaw-dropping Link drop or Samus boosting from- ...I see your game. You clever bastards almost got me to mention the bad thing. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO raytan NO PEACE] |
DidYouMWISMe posted... xp1337 posted...Samus is not as bad as she looked relative to Snake as that match suggests. In the Draven/Link match, Commander Shepard, who was the third wheel, got pushed down to an astounding 12%. Do you think he goes that low if someone like Megaman X is there in place of Draven? Last Place Factor matters. It matters a lot. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
Crono over Sephiroth? Really? Wow, FFVII must've really lost a step or three. With Vivi beating Mario, it feels less like FF has lost popularity as a series and more like FFVII specifically is just coming back to earth. Almost makes sense. As time passes, the FFVII hype is bound to die a little, and maybe the characters will be judged more for their personalities as time passes and less for the games they starred in. --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
Samus
isn't beating Snake. You generally have to be weaker to be Last Place
Factored. This performance on Link backs it up- Link probably isn't
going to break 55% today, and Samus has never been near that close to
Link. IMO the mod rally shifted the odds on a Link/Draven match from 80/20 in Link's favor to 65/35 in Draven's favor. Those 800-1000 vote updates were terrifying, but he only sustained them for 2 hours. If you add in the lost votes from the downtime, Link/Draven/Shepard probably ends around 130k. Snake/Samus/Draven ended at 149k- let's say we added 20k votes from the mod rally. If that splits 90/10 (and it may have been that bad for Snake due to unique circumstances of the rally thread), that's only a net gain of 16,000 votes for Draven. Link + Shepard beat Draven by 13,000. Add in the downtime and that becomes about 15,000. Remember, Draven hasn't broken 50% since R2. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
So I decided to make a bracket using the raw X-Stats to determine seeding! It's certainly interesting! Division 1 (1) Draven (18) Claptrap (27) Francis York Morgan (6) Mega Man X (13) Lugia (22) Geno (9) Magikarp (10) Tidus (19) Handsome Jack (2) Kirby (17) Dan Hibiki (26) Teemo (5) Waluigi (14) Donkey Kong (23) Recette Lemongross (8) Aerith Gainsborough (11) Meta Knight (20) Juliet Starling (3) Raiden (16) Hero (25) Sackboy (4) Charizard (15) Knuckles the Echidna (24) Isaac Clarke (7) Nightmare (12) Ridley (21) Mr. Game & Watch Division 2 (1) Link (18) Roxas (27) Max Payne (6) Alucard (13) Pyramid Head (22) Hal “Otacon” Emmerich (9) Poison (10) Pokemon Trainer Blue (19) Missile (2) Vincent Valentine (17) N (26) Senator Steven Armstrong (5) Altair (14) Chun-Li (23) JC Denton (8) Dragonborn (11) Riku (20) Celes Chere (3) Samus Aran (16) Wario (25) Nier (4) Zelda (15) Ness (24) Yu Narukami (7) Crash Bandicoot (12) Little Mac (21) Corvo Attano Division 3 (1) Jak (18) Archer (27) Hades (6) Captain Falcon (13) John Marston (22) Albert Wesker (9) Mordin Solus (10) Fei Fong Wong (19) Catherine (2) Marth (17) Ganondorf (26) Red Bird (5) Lara Croft (14) Jill Valentine (23) Simon Belmont (8) Chrom (11) Fox McCloud (20) Groose (3) Pikachu (16) Kratos (25) Kaim Argonar (4) Sub-Zero (15) Pit (24) Vaas Montenegro (7) Protoman (12) Tom Nook (21) Creeper Division 4 (1) Mewtwo (18) Viewtiful Joe (27) Caim (6) Vivi Ornitier (13) Balthier Bunansa (22) Seifer Almasy (9) Lucina (10) Isaac BOI (19) Yuri Lowell (2) Bowser (17) Zero (999) (26) Welkin Gunther (5) Scorpion (14) Amaterasu (23) Travis Touchdown (8) Rydia (11) Slime (20) Sarah Kerrigan (3) Sora (16) Claire Redfield (25) Oliver (4) Cloud Strife (15) Niko Bellic (24) Mike Haggar (7) Midna (12) Ramza Beoulve (21) Lee Everett --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Division 5 (1) Solid Snake (18) Jigglypuff (27) Wolf O’Donnell (6) Mario (13) Cecil Harvey (22) Jade (9) Zidane Tribal (10) Yuna (19) Miles “Tails” Prower (2) Big Boss (17) Tharja (26) Jade Curtiss (5) Yoshi (14) Captain Olimar (23) CATS (8) Wheatley (11) Agent 47 (20) Rayman (3) Zack Fair (16) Leon Kennedy (25) Cirno (4) Crono (15) Rikku (24) Reyn (7) Commander Shepard (12) Master Chief (21) Alan Wake Division 6 (1) Chie Satonaka (18) Gordon Freeman (27) Adol Christin (6) Dante (13) Aya Brea (22) Demi-Fiend (9) Frog (10) Bayonetta (19) Banjo (2) Luigi (17) Laharl (26) Kat (5) Morrigan Aensland (14) Pac-Man (23) Kratos Aurion (8) Auron (11) Lloyd Irving (20) Shadow the Hedgehog (3) Barret Wallace (16) Ragna the Bloodedge (25) Falco Lombardi (4) The Boss (15) Solaire of Astora (24) Raz (7) Spyro the Dragon (12) Shulk (21) Kain Division 7 (1) Sonic the Hedgehog (18) Lenneth Valkyrie (27) Commander Video (6) Gilgamesh (13) Yoshimitsu (22) Lyndis (9) Isaac (Golden Sun) (10) Booker DeWitt (19) Magus (2) GlaDOS (17) Tiny Tina (26) Sissel (5) Pokemon Trainer Red (14) Reimu Hakurei (23) Boko (8) Miles Edgeworth (11) Cole MacGrath (20) Wander (3) Squirtle (16) Prinny (25) Meat Boy (4) KOS-MOS (15) Weighted Companion Cube (24) King of All Cosmos (7) L-Block (12) Revolver Ocelot (21) Duke Nukem Division 8 (1) Sephiroth (18) Adam Jensen (27) Chester (6) Ike (13) Nathan Drake (22) Frank West (9) Ryu (10) Heavy (19) Neku Sakuraba (2) Kefka (17) Rinoa Heartilly (26) Fawful (5) Epona (14) Tingle (23) Commander Keen (8) Squall Leonhart (11) Big Daddy (20) Sly Cooper (3) Mega Man (16) Lu Bu (25) Yuri Hyuga (4) Dracula (15) Tommy Vercetti (24) Peacock (7) Ratchet (12) Urdnot Wrex (21) Bomberman Division 9 (1) Phoenix Wright (18) Sandbag (27) Spring Breeze Dancin’ (6) Elizabeth (13) Clementine (22) Captain Viridian (9) Missingno (10) Princess Peach (19) Locke Cole (2) Terra Branford (17) Palutena (26) Guybrush Threepwood (5) Garrus Vakarian (14) Ezio Auditore da Firenze (23) Face McShooty (8) Dr. Robotnik (11) Zero (Mega Man X) (20) Dunban (3) Ryu Hayabusa (16) ? Block (25) Vyse (4) Tifa Lockhart (15) Lightning (24) Marisa Kirasame (7) Professor Layton (12) Thrall (21) Steve --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
Cloud and Sephiroth are not trustworthy to me. About the only Noble Niner I can't see beating them is Sonic. And yet the rest of the Nine except Link and (Sprite-less) Snake have proven they're not to be trusted, either. Samus could have been there too, but darn you Mario --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
The counterpoint I'd pose is that people discount the effect Samus being there had on Draven. The backfire effect should
be stronger when characters from big disparate fanbases are in the same
poll. This also helps explain why Draven beasted in Round 2, combined
with the true League of Downtime - it was just 'Capcom vs. LoL' and
Capcom stock has nosedived in recent years. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
What did luster do --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword Congrats to Raytan, CBIX Guru champion |
Link by the hour: 1:00 | 51.47% 2:00 | 53.56% 3:00 | 50.87% Snake: I'm taking the night vote. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
DidYouMWISMe posted...
Were you not aware of several Snake rally threads on 4C? --- Common sense seems more uncommon. |
Need to go crazy with the seeding and adjust it so you don't throw the Top 3 in the same third! So it looks something like: 1 6 7 3 4 9 2 5 8 --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
sorry didn't mean to let Jak go to waste like that --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... sorry didn't mean to let Jak go to waste like that apology accepted --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Snake rallies is not sufficient to explain away that Samus gap. Almost all of it is attributable to LPF. But as red sox pointed out, beating someone that you get LPF'd against is a nigh-impossible task. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Karma Hunter posted... Cloud and Sephiroth are not trustworthy to me. About the only Noble Niner I can't see beating them is Sonic. I'd still wager money on Cloud beating Crono in a 1 v 1, but yeah. The Pokemon in this contest had weird impacts. I think the cool takeaway with Snake getting over 50% against not one but two different Pokemon characters is that Snake might be the only Noble Niner not named Link who you'd feel confident facing any character from that series. ...Is the general consensus that Mewtwo's the strongest Pokemon character? I wonder how he'd perform in a 1 v 1 against all the other Noble Nine characters. I could actually see Mewtwo over Cloud in a 1 v 1 quite easily, given how Squirtle did. --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
To
make up for it, I will make a 128 character, 1-on-1 bracket using
proper seeding based on the X-Stats and we can all wonder what might
have been. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif |
Backfire
is the only thing that kept Link and Snake in those matches. Get this:
Samus, the one who was abandoned horribly, and facing stronger
competition........received nearly 7000 more votes yesterday than in her
victorious semifinal match against Megaman and Red. Reddit probably
rallied well in excess of 10,000 votes yesterday.....for Samus. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
LeonhartFour posted... To make up for it, I will make a 128 character, 1-on-1 bracket using proper seeding based on the X-Stats and we can all wonder what might have been. link v jak final four showdown get hyped --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
I'd
be willing to consider Sephiroth beating Mewtwo 1-on-1 on the grounds
that this site would never ever hivemind behind an FFVII character to
take out Draven so Mewtwo was the only real option! --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO raytan NO PEACE] |
I'd take Sephiroth > Mewtwo in an instant for a 1v1 contest next year. Mewtwo is getting Charizarded hard. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Sephiroth > Mewtwo wouldn't be the favorite 1v1? Not buying these Pokemon beating the upper tiers in 1v1 just yet! Barring exceptional circumstances! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
red sox 777 posted... Backfire is the only thing that kept Link and Snake in those matches. True, but that's somewhat strange wording. Had Reddit never gotten involved in the first place, Link (and Snake) would have easily wiped the floor with Draven. You can't really say backfire had a 'beneficial' impact of keeping them competitive when they wouldn't have even needed the backfire to win in an environment where Reddit hadn't rallied for anyone. --- The Legend of Snake: http://tinyurl.com/3cal86z The LoS Instruction Manual: http://tinyurl.com/3jlax8h |
Karma Hunter posted... Snake rallies is not sufficient to explain away that Samus gap. Almost all of it is attributable to LPF. Yeah, that's totally fair - I don't think we've had a single case of a LPF'd entity having revenge on someone who was ahead in a future match, but that's partly because we've had few contests. I just think Samus/Snake is a more interesting affair than Snake/Link because it gives an interesting gauge for a variety of things, as opposed to 'of course Link wins, next'. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner. |
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