Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1182

#1 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/15/2013 10:08:15 PM | message detail
http://i.imgur.com/wiRagVA.png

Please tell me what's unusable about that picture, SBAllen. I'm all ears.

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~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
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~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:08:52 PM | message detail
Now I understand.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
#3 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/15/2013 10:09:14 PM | message detail
From: GloriousSweater | #001
Please tell me what's unusable about that picture, SBAllen. I'm all ears.

I'm not SBAllen, but Snake's logo is too far behind his sprite. You can barely see it compared to Link's logo.
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#4 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 10:31:44 PM | message detail
#5 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:32:35 PM | message detail
I like how now I feel like there's a non-zero chance that question will get answered here. >_>
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#6 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:35:29 PM | message detail
Ah, this early off-season breeze is nice.
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Kept you waiting, huh? congrats to raytan, Guru Champ!
#7 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/15/2013 10:47:54 PM | message detail
Yoblazer, you glorious, glorious man. Amazing stuff.
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Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner.
#8 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:48:18 PM | message detail
It could be variance, but there was a very small jump in both characters' vote intakes when Luster posted about this poll in the Draven rally thread about 45 minutes ago.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
#9 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:48:22 PM | message detail
whoops that was a failed 500 attempt
#10 | creativename | Posted 9/15/2013 10:48:42 PM | message detail
What's "DHF" and who's Reggie.
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#11 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 10:48:51 PM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Ah, this early off-season breeze is nice.


Fall Breeze Blowin'
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#12 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 10:49:21 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
It could be variance, but there was a very small jump in both characters' vote intakes when Luster posted about this poll in the Draven rally thread about 45 minutes ago.


are you kidding me-

who do Draven rallyfans even vote for
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#13 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 10:49:36 PM | message detail
#14 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:49:50 PM | message detail
Return of Disguster
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Kept you waiting, huh? congrats to raytan, Guru Champ!
#15 | ZFS | Posted 9/15/2013 10:49:52 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
What's "DHF" and who's Reggie.


'David Hayter Factor'!

Reggie is the CEO of Nintendo of America. Doesn't actually have a Twitter!
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ZELDA
#16 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:52:01 PM | message detail
I'd expect those votes to favor Snake because Link is our "mascot" so he's the one you want to beat to make us "mad" (lol if only they knew)

But really I don't expect anything to really come of that.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#17 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/15/2013 10:52:34 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
creativename posted...
What's "DHF" and who's Reggie.


'David Hayter Factor'!

Reggie is the CEO of Nintendo of America. Doesn't actually have a Twitter!


Nintendo of America's twitter account not good enough huh
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Bearer of the Mark of Raytan, Guru Contest Winner.
#18 | creativename | Posted 9/15/2013 10:52:49 PM | message detail
Ah yes, Hayter. Still behind Olympic Hockey Factor but it's up there!

LeonhartFour posted...
creativename posted...
What's "DHF" and who's Reggie.



What's the story behind this "my body is ready" joke?
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#19 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:53:37 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
red sox 777 posted...
It could be variance, but there was a very small jump in both characters' vote intakes when Luster posted about this poll in the Draven rally thread about 45 minutes ago.


are you kidding me-

who do Draven rallyfans even vote for


i dunno
disguster is back though
#20 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 10:54:07 PM | message detail
Reggie famously said "My body is ready" when he first tried out the Wii Fit Balance Board back at E3 and it became a big internet meme.
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#21 | hylianknight3 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:55:54 PM | message detail
luster why would you even
#22 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:56:39 PM | message detail
Darn it, this match is so boring compared to Link vs. Draven. I have to say, I had fun with the last 3 Draven matches. LoL was able to rally 2000 votes for a stupid Board 8 Link v. Draven poll, why couldn't they rally a few for the bonus poll selection?
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
#23 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:56:48 PM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
luster why would you even

If you made me actually try to answer that seriously - to increase vote totals. >_>

I don't think Luster cares who wins.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#24 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:57:32 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Darn it, this match is so boring compared to Link vs. Draven. I have to say, I had fun with the last 3 Draven matches. LoL was able to rally 2000 votes for a stupid Board 8 Link v. Draven poll, why couldn't they rally a few for the bonus poll selection?


account required to vote
a good thing too, nobody wants to deal with the trolls for another day
#25 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2013 10:57:33 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Reggie famously said "My body is ready" when he first tried out the Wii Fit Balance Board back at E3 and it became a big internet meme.


Damn, I thought that came from Goku saying "I hope my body can take it."
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#26 | Xuxon | Posted 9/15/2013 10:58:17 PM | message detail
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 9/16/2013 1:57:33 AM | #025
LeonhartFour posted...
Reggie famously said "My body is ready" when he first tried out the Wii Fit Balance Board back at E3 and it became a big internet meme.


Damn, I thought that came from Goku saying "I hope my body can take it."

same
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#27 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 10:59:06 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Reggie famously said "My body is ready" when he first tried out the Wii Fit Balance Board back at E3 and it became a big internet meme.


Damn, I thought that came from Goku saying "I hope my body can take it."

I actually thought that too until that question made me think about what the actual DBZ quote was.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#28 | GloriousSweater (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/15/2013 10:59:21 PM | message detail
Heh, I thought it was Goku too (!!), which is even more hilarious because I was, without a hint of uncertainty, watching the live E3 conference when Reggie made that comment.
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#29 | Darkemaste | Posted 9/15/2013 10:59:54 PM | message detail
#30 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 11:03:09 PM | message detail
Link by the hour:

1:00 | 51.47%
2:00 | 53.56%

That's a pretty big jump.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
#31 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 11:04:30 PM | message detail
Link anti-votes making the Power Hour Link's worst time, obviously.

Link's FNV about to become his second-best time period.

his best time period is the rest of the match
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#32 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 11:05:06 PM | message detail
Snake will make up for the Power Hour being twice as long by doubling his night vote
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#33 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/15/2013 11:07:13 PM | message detail
we gotta have Jak vs Snake and Chie vs Sonic in the next character battle
#34 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/15/2013 11:07:52 PM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Return of Disguster


Hey, my post was neutral. I didn't tell them to vote for any specific character.
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#35 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 11:09:01 PM | message detail
You know it's funny because it wasn't so long ago to me that I was the only one transfixed on a 'boring' 1v1 match like this.

Except it was Mario vs Snake 2005.

Where I was exulting over Snake nearly reaching the monster number of 43% on the plumber.
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#36 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/15/2013 11:11:41 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
You know it's funny because it wasn't so long ago to me that I was the only one transfixed on a 'boring' 1v1 match like this.

Except it was Mario vs Snake 2005.

Where I was exulting over Snake nearly reaching the monster number of 43% on the plumber.


raw x-stats say Snake is projected to barely break 40% here in this match
Snake boost confirmed


LoL x-stats
#37 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 11:13:05 PM | message detail
Snake boosted that much in the span of just one day

at that rate by the next character contest he'll be worth almost 100% on Link
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#38 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/15/2013 11:13:11 PM | message detail
Why would anyone anti vote Link after LSD?

Actually who got robbed of victory harder Link or Snake
#39 | Solioxrz362 | Posted 9/15/2013 11:13:24 PM | message detail
I dunno about you guys, but I'm kinda liking this relaxed match much more than the beginning of Draven's massacre in the semi-finals and finals. That was less interesting than a Chester match.
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#40 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 11:13:57 PM | message detail
Thanks to David Hayter, in perhaps 30 minutes Link shall surpass Draven's lead on Snake at the same time.
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NEVER FORGET.
#41 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 11:15:06 PM | message detail
I'm just sad about the low votals, mostly. If this were Link and Snake blasting out 130k votes, I'd be plenty happy.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
#42 | AsurasKordoth | Posted 9/15/2013 11:16:00 PM | message detail
As expected, this match is boring as f***. Should have done Link v Snake v Samus (or Mario). At least a 2nd Nintendo character might leech enough that Link might lose.
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-Merc
#43 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 11:17:52 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Why would anyone anti vote Link after LSD?

Actually who got robbed of victory harder Link or Snake


Link actually caught a number of decent breaks in his match, it's just that the League of Downtime caused him to come up just short.

The League of Stickies turned the Draven/Snake barnburner into a stupid debacle. It's hard to argue Link got robbed more despite coming closer, though at least Allen could have actively rerun the match which wasn't really an option with Snake.
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#44 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/15/2013 11:18:58 PM | message detail
Who cares if this match is boring?
It's the match that should have been the finals
#45 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/15/2013 11:21:56 PM | message detail | (edited)
As expected, this match is boring as f***. Should have done Link v Snake v Samus (or Mario). At least a 2nd Nintendo character might leech enough that Link might lose.

We already saw Link lose once. Isn't that enough if that's all you're after? Who cares if he can be beaten in an LFF poll? That's not much more meaningful than Link losing to League of Downtime.
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#46 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 11:21:43 PM | message detail
So much distaste. Is every match that isn't 50/50 a disappointment for you guys? :(

And there's still so many people in here that still haven't played a Metal Gear Solid game that I've seen! Really, guys, Snake did everything he could for the contest against incredible odds, just like Link. You really owe it to yourselves to see how great he is in the original Metal Gear Solid.
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#47 | Solioxrz362 | Posted 9/15/2013 11:24:06 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
So much distaste. Is every match that isn't 50/50 a disappointment for you guys? :(

And there's still so many people in here that still haven't played a Metal Gear Solid game that I've seen! Really, guys, Snake did everything he could for the contest against incredible odds, just like Link. You really owe it to yourselves to see how great he is in the original Metal Gear Solid.

I like you Karma Hunter. We can be good friends.
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#48 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 11:26:16 PM | message detail
No, it's just.....I was promised Link vs. Draven 1v1, a chance to settle scores of scores. Link being the underdog is incredibly fun. And we would have gotten 150k+ votes. I really think Link v. Ultimate Draven 1v1 is a close match (and Snake gets around 45% too). If we lose, I just tip my hat to Draven and declare him our #1.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
#49 | Acerac | Posted 9/15/2013 11:26:48 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Who cares if this match is boring?
It's the match that should have been the finals

Yes, this 1v1 match clearly should have been the finals. >_>
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#50 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 11:27:26 PM | message detail
Oh man, Snake with his two best updates of the match one after another.

Three's a trend, so let's pull a red sox and set this match to Duel (MGS1):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rad3r9sjVSM
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