Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1177

#351 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/15/2013 3:45:21 AM | message detail
DidYouMWISMe posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
I think the only person more annoying than Kanz and his League obsession is MWIS with Solid Snake.

ALMOST had a full contest without the latter. Would have been awesome.


Damn.
You're still holding a grudge, eh?


I don't like annoying-ass people, that's not really a grudge.
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#352 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:45:28 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
The thread could potentially die off on Reddit, too.

I doubt Snake comes back and wins, but that would be the most amazing thing ever after everything that happened in this contest.


That's kinda what we're hoping for at this point!
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#353 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:46:16 AM | message detail
Yeah, we're all hoping that the championship backfires on Draven.

And/or more professional wrestlers come to Snake's aid. >_>
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#354 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/15/2013 3:47:04 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
At 7 am, Link was losing by almost 6000 votes. With worlds going on, Draven's rallying power won't be as strong because everyone and their mother who cares a ton about League will be all over watching the streams, and all the streams delete direct links. The thread could potentially die off on Reddit, too.

I doubt Snake comes back and wins, but that would be the most amazing thing ever after everything that happened in this contest. Can you imagine?


This won't stop coordinated ralliers, actually. It's a very easy bypass to just split the link in two bits (gam efaqs.com, for example), at which point people WILL see it because IIRC, LoL competition chats use a very strong slow mode such that replies are visible for a long time. A group of fifty users coordinating to drop the link down at the same time will raise a crazy amount of havoc. This is, of course, not nearly as big as what you'd get if Riot actually backed Draven up like they did with LoL in the old Joystiq poll though.
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#355 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/15/2013 3:47:26 AM | message detail
Even if Snake goes down in defeat, this match proved two things. David Hayter is the man and Draven is a draggy cow.
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#356 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/15/2013 3:48:01 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
DidYouMWISMe posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
I think the only person more annoying than Kanz and his League obsession is MWIS with Solid Snake.

ALMOST had a full contest without the latter. Would have been awesome.


Damn.
You're still holding a grudge, eh?


I don't like annoying-ass people, that's not really a grudge.


I haven't said anything rude or condescending. I just don't see the need for the vitriol.
It's been years since we last interacted. Why not just give it a rest?
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#357 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/15/2013 3:48:23 AM | message detail
I want to hear Taco Storm weep some more over Board 8.
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#358 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:49:31 AM | message detail
And in Draven's 3rd match how many on r/lol do you think hadn't already supported him? The majority of those "3:2" were probably rallied votes on other subreddits which was a thing everyone was doing by that stage. I don't buy rallies backfiring on LoL forums at all, they're not your typical gamers.

There aren't enough votes from other sources to push the LoL ratio beyond 70/30 or so, unless you think Allen is lying. And it matches up with the time period you chose yourself perfectly. The Draven rally is taken down, and Link loses 3 votes for every 5 Draven loses. Granted, it was a very short time period and subject to high variance. But this seems to be the most natural explanation with the info we have.
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#359 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 9/15/2013 3:49:53 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Even if Snake goes down in defeat, this match proved two things. David Hayter is the man and Draven is a draggy crow.


fixed.
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#360 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 3:50:23 AM | message detail
Draggy Crow

the final member of Foxhound Snake must overcome
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#361 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:50:45 AM | message detail
Yeah, it was pretty clear that Link's intake dropped notably when the rally topics went down. I recall mentioning at the time that someone should keep track of it because it'd be interesting to look at.

Of course, things got... complicated shortly after. >_>
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#362 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:50:52 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Draggy Crow

the final member of Foxhound Snake must overcome


The last disciple of Decoy Octopus has reared his head.
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#363 | tpoyoy | Posted 9/15/2013 3:53:46 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
At 7 am, Link was losing by almost 6000 votes. With worlds going on, Draven's rallying power won't be as strong because everyone and their mother who cares a ton about League will be all over watching the streams, and all the streams delete direct links. The thread could potentially die off on Reddit, too.

I doubt Snake comes back and wins, but that would be the most amazing thing ever after everything that happened in this contest. Can you imagine?


This won't stop coordinated ralliers, actually. It's a very easy bypass to just split the link in two bits (gam efaqs.com, for example), at which point people WILL see it because IIRC, LoL competition chats use a very strong slow mode such that replies are visible for a long time. A group of fifty users coordinating to drop the link down at the same time will raise a crazy amount of havoc. This is, of course, not nearly as big as what you'd get if Riot actually backed Draven up like they did with LoL in the old Joystiq poll though.


ya imagine if riot backed up this thing during the tournament 500k votes easy?
#364 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:55:22 AM | message detail | (edited)
What's the comeback record again? (Link's heroic effort not withstanding)

Need to wonder if Snake will get a shot at it.
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#365 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:55:32 AM | message detail
Whatever happens, Link and Snake have proven that Draven is mortal, and he can be beat. If Snake doesn't do it today, there's a great chance Link will do it tomorrow in the 1v1.
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#366 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/15/2013 3:55:40 AM | message detail
Draggy Crow actually sounds like a Mega Man X maverick.
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#367 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:56:30 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
What's the comeback record again?

Need to wonder if Snake will get a shot at it.


Successful comeback, you mean?

Because he's not getting close to what Link got!
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#368 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:57:15 AM | message detail
Yeah, successful.

link's comeback too legendary and will never be touched
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#369 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 3:57:26 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
What's the comeback record again? (Link's heroic effort not withstanding)

Need to wonder if Snake will get a shot at it.


Record for a successful comeback is Sonic/Crono 2006.

Snake shatters that if he wins today.
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#370 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:57:39 AM | message detail
Anyway, pretty sure Master Chief came back from 2400 down against Frog in 2004. Can't recall if there's been a bigger "successful" comeback.
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#371 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:58:28 AM | message detail
Comeback record is around 3100 votes in Donkey Kong/Duck Hunt, starting from 3200 down. Link had two separate comebacks of 3200 (from 6100 down) and 4500 (from 5200 down) against Draven.
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#372 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:58:28 AM | message detail
Well yeah, Sonic/Crono is the record for most successful comeback that actually stuck! That was right around 2000 votes.

DK/Chief, too.
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#373 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 3:58:46 AM | message detail
MC's was the opposite of successful! Though he took the lead, something Link didn't do, if you're judging by that.
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#374 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:59:51 AM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, it depends on your definition of successful. That's why I put it in quotation marks!
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#375 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:59:39 AM | message detail
I love how Link has the top 2 (non-successful) comebacks.

what a match

what a hero
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#376 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 4:01:00 AM | message detail
Axel also came back from 1900+ votes and briefly took the lead, but again...!
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#377 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/15/2013 4:02:18 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Axel also came back from 1900+ votes and briefly took the lead, but again...!


If we somehow get a bonus poll after the bonus poll, perhaps we could get Frog on the job.
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#378 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/15/2013 4:04:05 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
I love how Link has the top 2 (non-successful) comebacks.

what a match

what a hero


And from the same match, too!
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#379 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 4:04:23 AM | message detail
Draven's lead on Snake after 7 hours - 2515
Total votes - 53074

Draven's lead on Link after 7 hours - 5816
Total votes - 46928
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#380 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 4:05:09 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
xp1337 posted...
I love how Link has the top 2 (non-successful) comebacks.

what a match

what a hero


And from the same match, too!

greatest performance in contest history

sorry snake.
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#381 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 4:05:24 AM | message detail
Sandbag came back from 2150 against Magus and held it. Guess that's about 100 less than the Sonic/Crono record.
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#382 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 4:06:01 AM | message detail
Link can have the greatest 22.5 hour performance in contest history

Mario can have the greatest 24+ hour performance in contest history

Snake will take the greatest 24 hour performance in contest history
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#383 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 4:06:57 AM | message detail
Snake is literally putting up an impossible performance and still gets no respect :/

Bacon replace Samus with Shepard for just 15 minutes, I dare you
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#384 | tpoyoy | Posted 9/15/2013 4:07:22 AM | message detail
didnt draven come back from 2k down on Mewtwo then took lead in a span of like an hour the other day?
#385 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 4:08:18 AM | message detail
tpoyoy posted...
didnt draven come back from 2k down on Mewtwo then took lead in a span of like an hour the other day?


Mewtwo's peak lead was 2330, so yeah, he did.

Snake's comeback will still exceed that one though!
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#386 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 4:08:43 AM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
Link can have the greatest 22.5 hour performance in contest history

Mario can have the greatest 24+ hour performance in contest history

Snake will take the greatest 24 hour performance in contest history

And to think we could have had Link/Mario/Snake!

battle for greatest contest performance

match time is determined by an rng prior to the match
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#387 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 4:08:41 AM | message detail
For reference:

Draven by the Hour vs. Link:

1:00 | 53.49% | +859
2:00 | 53.51% | +573
3:00 | 58.48% | +1050
4:00 | 63.51% | +1071
5:00 | 61.72% | +845
6:00 | 61.82% | +735
7:00 | 59.73% | +583
8:00 | 54.44% | +264
9:00 | 50.58% | +38
10:00 | 45.38% | -327
11:00 | 41.91% | -619
12:00 | 37.90% | -916
13:00 | 30.80% | -506
14:00 | 37.08% | -448
15:00 | 47.89% | -197
16:00 | 61.26% | +1190
17:00 | 59.58% | +874
18:00 | 39.38% | -1160
19:00 | 47.20% | -228
20:00 | 38.58% | -951
21:00 | 43.02% | -549
22:00 | 42.51% | -626
23:00 | 48.18% | -184
24:00 | 41.62% | -706

The site downtime happened during those 2 hours between 12:00 and 14:00.
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#388 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/15/2013 4:08:48 AM | message detail
tpoyoy posted...
didnt draven come back from 2k down on Mewtwo then took lead in a span of like an hour the other day?


That was because he didn't have a rally topic then!

He has a rally topic now, and is still struggling to put Snake away!
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#389 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/15/2013 4:10:21 AM | message detail
This upcoming hour is the moment of truth. If Snake can't slow Draven down here like Link did, it won't look good
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#390 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 4:11:03 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
This upcoming hour is the moment of truth. If Snake can't slow Draven down here like Link did, it won't look good

I'm willing to give Snake a bit more time because he's not Link but yes, he has to start moving to slow/stabilize the bleeding soon.
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#391 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 4:11:07 AM | message detail
Draven's intake is already pretty low. As long as the vote totals start creeping back up as they usually do at this time, Snake should start making headway.
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#392 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 4:11:35 AM | message detail
Creeping back up from within the site, that is.
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#393 | tpoyoy | Posted 9/15/2013 4:12:49 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
tpoyoy posted...
didnt draven come back from 2k down on Mewtwo then took lead in a span of like an hour the other day?


That was because he didn't have a rally topic then!

He has a rally topic now, and is still struggling to put Snake away!


he'll pull away hard haven't you learned draven cant be stopped?

even if reddit gets shutdown the LoL playoffs will have 100k+ viewers throughout each match tomorrow and there is usually a break between matches lasting like 10 minutes.
#394 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 4:13:29 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Snake is literally putting up an impossible performance and still gets no respect :/

Bacon replace Samus with Shepard for just 15 minutes, I dare you

It's missing the drama of "Down 6000. It's happening!"

6000 and 5000 vote barriers how crazy was that

Yeah, what Snake's doing is crazy, but that Link performance was just too great for me personally. This is #2 though, easily!
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#395 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 4:14:11 AM | message detail
And that's an encouraging update for Snake!
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#396 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 4:15:01 AM | message detail
That was a great update!

Snake probably coming back down next time though.
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#397 | Doctor_Vodka (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/15/2013 4:15:40 AM | message detail
Link still failed though. Had we won, that would have been more impressive. If Snake actually manages to win here, it's not debatable he was more "heroic" than Link. You have to WIN to be a hero. Otherwise you simply just put up a hell of a fight
#398 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 4:15:43 AM | message detail
Actually, looks like Draven came back from 2582 against Jak. New record for biggest successful comeback.
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#399 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 4:16:19 AM | message detail
Snake isn't looking to be a hero. He's just got a job to finish.
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#400 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 4:17:03 AM | message detail
Doctor_Vodka posted...
Link still failed though. Had we won, that would have been more impressive. If Snake actually manages to win here, it's not debatable he was more "heroic" than Link. You have to WIN to be a hero. Otherwise you simply just put up a hell of a fight

No you don't! You can be a hero in defeat!

Plus, Link will always have the downtime to point to.
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