Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1177

#301 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/15/2013 3:22:32 AM | message detail
To call Draven's support static is a tad misleading. In Round 2 he quintupled Ryu. As in, THE Ryu, the Street Fighter one. He nearly quadrupled Megaman X, too. Draven has a humongous voter pool, and if he taps into all of it nobody has a chance. The question is if he will.
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#302 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/15/2013 3:23:41 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
To call Draven's support static is a tad misleading. In Round 2 he quintupled Ryu. As in, THE Ryu, the Street Fighter one. He nearly quadrupled Megaman X, too. Draven has a humongous voter pool, and if he taps into all of it nobody has a chance. The question is if he will.


...Jeez.
Who the heck *is* this guy.
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#303 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:24:32 AM | message detail
50,000 votes in a little over 6 hours.

Almost brings a tear to my eye to see.
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#304 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:25:18 AM | message detail
R2 Draven is looking like an anomaly at this point.

I mean, what was that?

I mean, if you choose to ignore RALLYSTATS, it's just so bizarre that we never saw that ever again.
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#305 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:25:49 AM | message detail
Yeah that is amazing. Rallies are awesome. Still I hope Draven manages to win the finals and in the bonus match... It would be good if he won there too but even if he loses that is okay.
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#306 | Czill | Posted 9/15/2013 3:26:22 AM | message detail
A Riot employee (@RiotTacoStorm) just tweeted that he was reading B8 and was sad about the Dravenhate.

Hi Taco Storm.
#307 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:26:35 AM | message detail
The fact that Draven hasn't even come close to replicating that again might be the strongest argument for Lopen's case.
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#308 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:27:25 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
The fact that Draven hasn't even come close to replicating that again might be the strongest argument for Lopen's case.

Well, that's why I said if you ignored that!

If you don't, suddenly things make a lot more sense!
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#309 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:28:33 AM | message detail
Very nearly a stall by Snake there! Only a 16 vote gain for Draven.
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#310 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:28:45 AM | message detail
Wow, what a performance by Snake. Also happy to see we are contending with the 2007 final for highest votals ever, though I think once the day comes we will inevitably fall behind as this one is heavily rally fueled up to now.

Snake is still way ahead of Link's pace, but I think Draven is still the favorite right now, because Snake has gotten so much rallying already. Without it, he would be as far behind as Link was, but with less favorable day vote prospects.
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#311 | Czill | Posted 9/15/2013 3:28:48 AM | message detail
Whoa that's a good update for Snake.

Also my last post before hitting my limit.

Guess I may as well sleep or something now...
#312 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:28:50 AM | message detail
Semi-stall.

If Draven's intake stays around there, Snake can do that a bit more!
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#313 | AdrianVonKarma | Posted 9/15/2013 3:29:14 AM | message detail
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=577537725616974&set=a.281411461896270.61452.112705558766862&type=1&comment_id=1838131&offset=0&total_comments=11

Please "like" this comment, so it will shoot to the top! Reply will help too I guess.

If the post gets to the top, the post will be seen by at least 30,000 people while the show is on, and I'm sure the majority will go for Snake or even Samus.
#314 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/15/2013 3:29:22 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Very nearly a stall by Snake there! Only a 16 vote gain for Draven.


If Snake wants to make a game of this, that better become a trend and not just an anomaly.
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#315 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:29:27 AM | message detail
That's actually the first percentage gain for Snake in 2.5 hours, to boot!
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#316 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 3:29:45 AM | message detail
hear that Snake you're still the plucky underdog

YOU ALL KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS
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#317 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/15/2013 3:30:37 AM | message detail
We can get more rallying than that, though!

Anyone know any other celebrities, gaming or otherwise, that would rally for Snake?
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#318 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:31:16 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
We can get more rallying than that, though!

Anyone know any other celebrities, gaming or otherwise, that would rally for Snake?


SephG is working on getting wrestlers to Tweet, including John Cena himself!

Rise above hate!
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#319 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:31:42 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
R2 Draven is looking like an anomaly at this point.

I mean, what was that?

I mean, if you choose to ignore RALLYSTATS, it's just so bizarre that we never saw that ever again.


A well planned rally that didn't have a hitch.

vs Jak it took them half a match to get a thread up
vs Link they had to deal with the thread being deleted and the slow ramp up time for another
vs Mewtwo they had the first two hours without a thread
vs Snake they made the thread way too early to the extent that it was beginning it's decline by the time the match had started
#320 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/15/2013 3:31:54 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
We can get more rallying than that, though!

Anyone know any other celebrities, gaming or otherwise, that would rally for Snake?


Anyone you can think of that's remotely into gaming would be a decent shot, as it is way more likely they prefer Snake or even Samus.
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#321 | AdrianVonKarma | Posted 9/15/2013 3:32:53 AM | message detail
It's a time sensitive matter though. This will not be relevant in the next hour, but maybe if we do it in multiple Facebook pages throughout the day, it can make the difference.
#322 | shane15 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:33:17 AM | message detail
Snake's actually holding in there.Dravens no contest winner...never was!
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#323 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/15/2013 3:33:21 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...

Anyone know any other celebrities, gaming or otherwise, that would rally for Snake?


I actually think Kojima, Konami and Hayter would be sufficient, *if* they tried again during regular day hours.

The issue is whether Kojima and Hayter would be aware that the discrepancy is largely due to time of day. If they just see the vote totals they might just assume Snake's destined to lose and make no effort.
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#324 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:34:33 AM | message detail | (edited)
DidYouMWISMe posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Very nearly a stall by Snake there! Only a 16 vote gain for Draven.


If Snake wants to make a game of this, that better become a trend and not just an anomaly.

The thing with Draven, to the extent that you can watch trends with him the key is his vote intake per update.

With Link it was kind of comically consistent so it was literally a matter of just watching GameFAQs traffic increase and just naturally push the amount of votes Link got higher and higher until he just went over.

If Draven hangs around 160, Snake will be good for consistently losing 20-40 votes for a while longer and then you'll just watch Snake's intake go up and eventually becomes stalls, then cuts.

but who knows how draven will behave this time
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#325 | perfectchaos83 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:34:10 AM | message detail
Czill posted...
A Riot employee (@RiotTacoStorm) just tweeted that he was reading B8 and was sad about the Dravenhate.

Hi Taco Storm.


It's weird, they're upset that people rallied for him from outside sources, and then they went and rallied outside sources.

I find this tweet hilarious. If the reddit rally never took off, we never would have had to go to such extreme measures. Seriously, it's the only way to legitimately beat reddit here.
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#326 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:34:12 AM | message detail
Hayter's already Tweeted three times about the thing. I'm sure you could get him to do it at least one more time.
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#327 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:34:19 AM | message detail
Someone remember how many people were online in reddit during R2?
LoL was down in all servers or something
So if it was more than the usual 10k-15k online...
#328 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:34:35 AM | message detail
Snakes holding up as well as can be expected at the moment.
#329 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:34:41 AM | message detail
The difference between R2 Draven and Draven since then is most easily explained by X and Ryu being unpopular or unknown on the LoL subreddit. Link was getting a huge backfire rate, and Snake is getting a huge backfire rate tonight. SBAllen said Draven was winning the new voters 3:2. Part of that was Link rallies, but most of it was reddit and the numbers don't add up unless Link was getting about 1/3 of the reddit voters.

A while ago, lightning-2 pointed out what happened when the Draven rally thread was briefly deleted and put up again- but unlike what he said, Link actually dropped off almost as much as Draven- about a 3:5 ratio over a 15 minute period when there was no rally topic. Which matches up with Allen's stated backfire rate just about perfectly.
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#330 | perfectchaos83 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:36:55 AM | message detail
I know! I would hope that the LoL community would be more sportsmanlike and show a modicum of good manners.

This tweet by the riot taco storm guy had me in tears. Pretty hilarious.
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#331 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:37:38 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
The difference between R2 Draven and Draven since then is most easily explained by X and Ryu being unpopular or unknown on the LoL subreddit. Link was getting a huge backfire rate, and Snake is getting a huge backfire rate tonight. SBAllen said Draven was winning the new voters 3:2. Part of that was Link rallies, but most of it was reddit and the numbers don't add up unless Link was getting about 1/3 of the reddit voters.

A while ago, lightning-2 pointed out what happened when the Draven rally thread was briefly deleted and put up again- but unlike what he said, Link actually dropped off almost as much as Draven- about a 3:5 ratio over a 15 minute period when there was no rally topic. Which matches up with Allen's stated backfire rate just about perfectly.


And in Draven's 3rd match how many on r/lol do you think hadn't already supported him? The majority of those "3:2" were probably rallied votes on other subreddits which was a thing everyone was doing by that stage. I don't buy rallies backfiring on LoL forums at all, they're not your typical gamers.
#332 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/15/2013 3:38:01 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
The fact that Snake won't ever trail by as much as Link did shows the massive respect gamers have for him.

Probably more likely that Hayter (and Kojima) single-handedly bailed him out!


You're kidding me. Seriously?
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#333 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:38:07 AM | message detail
I can understand X being a nobody in Europe...but Ryu? The face of street fighter not being known worldwide?
#334 | snoocete | Posted 9/15/2013 3:38:22 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
R2 Draven is looking like an anomaly at this point.

I mean, what was that?

I mean, if you choose to ignore RALLYSTATS, it's just so bizarre that we never saw that ever again.


In r/lol there are "in x hours, <event> happens" threads, it's a very common type of thread. Depending on the timing you can get different results.

The vs Ryu/X rally was made ten minutes before the actual poll. Pretty much everyone who would see the headline "in 10 minutes..." would go and check the link immediately. They can vote in the poll ASAP and they can also comment early which gives them more comment karma as there would be more users upvoting, more coverage etc.

Whereas the later rally threads started at three and nine hours before the actual poll. It doesn't bring about the same sense of urgency since for some either it'll be hours before they can actually vote, and those who come later they'll miss out on the urgent rush to make a difference by voting/commenting early.

TL;DR time-delayed threads can give more internet popularity points depending on timing
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#335 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:39:04 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
xp1337 posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
The fact that Snake won't ever trail by as much as Link did shows the massive respect gamers have for him.

Probably more likely that Hayter (and Kojima) single-handedly bailed him out!


You're kidding me. Seriously?

Hayter tweeted a few times, and Kojima has had 2 retweets linking to the site/poll.

There have been others, but those are the big two obviously.
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#336 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/15/2013 3:39:39 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...

You're kidding me. Seriously?


I'm only here tonight because Hayter tweeted about it.
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#337 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:39:41 AM | message detail
Snake getting dangerously close to a sub-100 update.

Wake up, America!
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#338 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 3:39:45 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I can understand X being a nobody in Europe...but Ryu? The face of street fighter not being known worldwide?


You'd be surprised, especially among more casual gamers. For tons of people in the gaming scene Ryu is a total non-entity.
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#339 | AdrianVonKarma | Posted 9/15/2013 3:40:34 AM | message detail
8000 likes in 10 minutes. The top comment already has 300 likes lol

That's what could have happened for Snake

Can't do it during the dead of night when most of us who care are asleep I guess.

Oh well, I tried.
#340 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:40:50 AM | message detail
To expound on that, in the wake of Hayter's tweets Snake went from almost 1000 down to coming to nearly within 200 (Kojima was in the middle there, IIRC).

It more than neutralized a fair amount of time where Draven would have been gaining fairly big.
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#341 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 3:41:17 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I can understand X being a nobody in Europe...but Ryu? The face of street fighter not being known worldwide?


People know who Ryu is, but fighting games are...not really a niche genre, but they don't have as broad of an appeal as others do.
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#342 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/15/2013 3:42:03 AM | message detail
I think the only person more annoying than Kanz and his League obsession is MWIS with Solid Snake.

ALMOST had a full contest without the latter. Would have been awesome.
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#343 | Qwaar | Posted 9/15/2013 3:42:07 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nanis23 posted...
I can understand X being a nobody in Europe...but Ryu? The face of street fighter not being known worldwide?


You'd be surprised, especially among more casual gamers. For tons of people in the gaming scene Ryu is a total non-entity.


Even my own mother knows who Ryu is.
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#344 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/15/2013 3:42:18 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Hayter's already Tweeted three times about the thing. I'm sure you could get him to do it at least one more time.

Four times if you count him trashing the Draven dude!
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#345 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/15/2013 3:42:47 AM | message detail
DidYouMWISMe

No.
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#346 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/15/2013 3:42:49 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
I think the only person more annoying than Kanz and his League obsession is MWIS with Solid Snake.

ALMOST had a full contest without the latter. Would have been awesome.


Damn.
You're still holding a grudge, eh?
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#347 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:43:23 AM | message detail
Draven by the hour vs. Snake:

1:00 | 51.56%
2:00 | 54.50%
3:00 | 47.09%
4:00 | 47.31%
5:00 | 57.60%
6:00 | 59.48%
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#348 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/15/2013 3:44:13 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
The difference between R2 Draven and Draven since then is most easily explained by X and Ryu being unpopular or unknown on the LoL subreddit. Link was getting a huge backfire rate, and Snake is getting a huge backfire rate tonight. SBAllen said Draven was winning the new voters 3:2. Part of that was Link rallies, but most of it was reddit and the numbers don't add up unless Link was getting about 1/3 of the reddit voters.

A while ago, lightning-2 pointed out what happened when the Draven rally thread was briefly deleted and put up again- but unlike what he said, Link actually dropped off almost as much as Draven- about a 3:5 ratio over a 15 minute period when there was no rally topic. Which matches up with Allen's stated backfire rate just about perfectly.

MMX and Ryu are less well known than the N9, but they're not exactly obscure. The backfire rate for those guys was less than 10% (like 2 or 3% at times by Lopen's numbers), which is just really really low
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#349 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/15/2013 3:44:33 AM | message detail
At 7 am, Link was losing by almost 6000 votes. With worlds going on, Draven's rallying power won't be as strong because everyone and their mother who cares a ton about League will be all over watching the streams, and all the streams delete direct links. The thread could potentially die off on Reddit, too.

I doubt Snake comes back and wins, but that would be the most amazing thing ever after everything that happened in this contest. Can you imagine?
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#350 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 3:44:40 AM | message detail
3:00 | 47.09%
4:00 | 47.31%

HayterFAQs so good.
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