Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1177

#451 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 4:57:16 AM | message detail
Draven got... 54.5% on Link this hour? Snake might stack up okay to that but I haven't run those numbers.
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#452 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 4:59:05 AM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, Link didn't really start slowing things down until the 8 AM (to 9) hour.
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#453 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/15/2013 4:59:11 AM | message detail
Maybe we should have just rallied the hell out of Pokemon Trainer Red so we could have someone that could just take 10% in this match.
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#454 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 4:59:59 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Maybe we should have just rallied the hell out of Pokemon Trainer Red so we could have someone that could just take 10% in this match.

I was actually thinking something like that at the time. But I'm not sure we could trust PokeFAQs to abandon here!
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#455 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:01:11 AM | message detail | (edited)
Cut by the way on a monster Snake update (and Draven falling off a cliff).
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#456 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/15/2013 5:01:22 AM | message detail
Morning vote will also be delayed cause it's a Sunday *clinging to anything that gives Snake a chance*
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#457 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 5:05:06 AM | message detail
Link/Draven was Labor Day, so these trends should be pretty much the same.
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#458 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/15/2013 5:05:53 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Maybe we should have just rallied the hell out of Pokemon Trainer Red so we could have someone that could just take 10% in this match.

I was actually thinking something like that at the time. But I'm not sure we could trust PokeFAQs to abandon here!


Yeah, if Red actually won that match, he'd probably get enough rally spilllover and momentum to get close to what Samus has here.

It's too bad that for all of the indignities that the NN suffered, there was only one upset on this third of the bracket.

Hell, Samus getting here instead of Mario ended up being a miracle for Snake as it is. Mario and Snake would have guaranteed Draven a victory.
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#459 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 5:06:03 AM | message detail
Eh, LSD will still be the ideal benchmark for Snake's goal trends. It was Labor Day, so had weekend morning trends.
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#460 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/15/2013 5:07:38 AM | message detail
Around a 54% hour for Draven there. Surprisingly close to the Link trends.

But can Snake stall this entire hour like Link did?
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#461 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 5:07:48 AM | message detail
And so far Snake's doing pretty good relative to Link's pace! He may not be able to equal it, but he obviously doesn't need to do close to it.

...before factoring rally reloading and downtime into the picture.
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#462 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:07:58 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Around a 54% hour for Draven there. Surprisingly close to the Link trends.

But can Snake stall this entire hour like Link did?

probably not

*glares at samus*
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#463 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:08:09 AM | message detail
Draven by the hour vs. Snake:

1:00 | 51.56% | +330
2:00 | 54.50% | +633
3:00 | 47.09% | -358
4:00 | 47.31% | -320
5:00 | 57.60% | +790
6:00 | 59.48% | +798
7:00 | 58.52% | +608
8:00 | 54.42% | +332

Snake still holding above Link's hourly percentages. But, up to now, it has been the night vote. It's now 8 AM, the traditional start of the Zelda day vote. Link went about 50/50 with Draven over this next hour.
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#464 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 5:09:38 AM | message detail
And yeah Snake will have his work cut out for him here. I doubt he can replicate Link's explosion - best hope is to slow Draven to a crawl and make much more consistent cuts as the day gets into full swing.

And keep Samus foldin' foldin' foldin'
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#465 | transience | Posted 9/15/2013 5:10:04 AM | message detail
what a goofy match

wrestlers and hayter and kojima vs. reddit
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#466 | transience | Posted 9/15/2013 5:10:34 AM | message detail
like I admire that you guys are taking it seriously and analyzing trends but I just can't do it without laughing like a maniac
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#467 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:10:46 AM | message detail
and there's still 16 hours left
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#468 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:11:44 AM | message detail
I was laughing back when that stuff was happening!

But right now it's "settled" into something similar to the Link match!
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#469 | Qwaar | Posted 9/15/2013 5:12:14 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
And yeah Snake will have his work cut out for him here. I doubt he can replicate Link's explosion - best hope is to slow Draven to a crawl and make much more consistent cuts as the day gets into full swing.

And keep Samus foldin' foldin' foldin'


As long as Snake limits the losses to the level they are now he may have a chance later on.

Of course, if the AJ tweet arrives then we can just pack up and go home.
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#470 | transience | Posted 9/15/2013 5:13:34 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
I was laughing back when that stuff was happening!

But right now it's "settled" into something similar to the Link match!


fair enough! I just woke up so I haven't settled into anything yet
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#471 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:13:57 AM | message detail
These updates where Snake drops down to 120 votes?

those need to stop happening
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#472 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 5:14:59 AM | message detail
Still taking 25ish vote losses. Gotta start cutting more often, Snake, you can do it.
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#473 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:15:23 AM | message detail
5 minutes
5 minutes till the time Link got his first cut

It will start.soon!!!
#474 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 5:17:48 AM | message detail
I believe in an almost-believing way
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#475 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:18:15 AM | message detail
was that just to spite me snake?

wrong way
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#476 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 5:19:40 AM | message detail
now Samus has become a liability with the morning vote

you are not authorized to go over 90 votes an update Hunter
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#477 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:21:57 AM | message detail
Do you know what is sad? Samus a really strong N9 is treated like a non factor here and nobody cares about her.
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#478 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/15/2013 5:22:21 AM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
And yeah Snake will have his work cut out for him here. I doubt he can replicate Link's explosion - best hope is to slow Draven to a crawl and make much more consistent cuts as the day gets into full swing.

And keep Samus foldin' foldin' foldin'


As long as Snake limits the losses to the level they are now he may have a chance later on.

Of course, if the AJ tweet arrives then we can just pack up and go home.


The AJ tweet won't necessarily end it or even be that significant. She'd have to do it three or four times. She might have a million followers but they won't all see it, and even fewer will actually vote
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#479 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:22:30 AM | message detail
I care about her.

i care about her folding and she is doing a poor job at that at the moment
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#480 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 9/15/2013 5:23:26 AM | message detail
3000 vote barrier about to be broken.
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#481 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:24:28 AM | message detail
I'm not totally sure when we should hit the panic button.

If Snake is still doing this in an hour I think it's close though.
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#482 | Qwaar | Posted 9/15/2013 5:24:40 AM | message detail
Things looking better for Draven if can keep this up for a few more hours...It's coming up for 1:30PM here.
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#483 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/15/2013 5:25:03 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Qwaar posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
And yeah Snake will have his work cut out for him here. I doubt he can replicate Link's explosion - best hope is to slow Draven to a crawl and make much more consistent cuts as the day gets into full swing.

And keep Samus foldin' foldin' foldin'


As long as Snake limits the losses to the level they are now he may have a chance later on.

Of course, if the AJ tweet arrives then we can just pack up and go home.


The AJ tweet won't necessarily end it or even be that significant. She'd have to do it three or four times. She might have a million followers but they won't all see it, and even fewer will actually vote


This is why it would be ideal to have it in the afternoon to early evening.

The closer to the PPV tonight the better.
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#484 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 5:25:56 AM | message detail
Okay c'mon Snake you can do this. You're pushing Samus down to authorization levels again, now you've got to start stringing things together. Give it everything here.
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#485 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:25:58 AM | message detail
Looks like I missed a lot of things last night, almost took an hour to catch-up.

Snake not looking too good right now, Link was stalling right now.
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#486 | Qwaar | Posted 9/15/2013 5:28:25 AM | message detail
The barrier has been breached.
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#487 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:29:01 AM | message detail
Over 3000. I hope Draven manages to hold on.
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#488 | MisterVanitas | Posted 9/15/2013 5:29:20 AM | message detail
The amount of gain and stall Snake had all night should make up for his misgivings now... But he can't keep this bad pace up forever.
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#489 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:30:29 AM | message detail | (edited)
Snake pulling in less votes than Link (or so it seems, not checking but I think Link was more around 140 here) is not surprising, and honestly Snake isn't that far off that at times.

I'm more concerned about Draven. This 170-180 seems higher than before. Again, not checking, but I think with Link it was more around 160.

And Link was obviously trending higher and spiking with Draven slowly creeping down.
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#490 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 5:31:23 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Snake pulling in less votes than Link (or so it seems, not checking but I think Link was more around 140 here) is not surprising, and honestly Snake isn't that far off that at times.

I'm more concerned about Draven. This 170-180 seems higher than before. Again, not checking, but I think with Link it was more around 160.

And Link was obviously trending higher and spiking with Draven slowly creeping down.


Might be due to the elevated subreddit activity today. Can't be helped.

Speaking of which, rally down to #10, for all it's worth.
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#491 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:33:45 AM | message detail
Samus, stop pretending like you matter here.
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#492 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:34:00 AM | message detail
Yeah, it could be that. Which is just unfortunate, if so.

Like that update right there, that was pretty good for Snake. But Draven's intake means it's still a loss of 30.
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#493 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/15/2013 5:35:03 AM | message detail
Yeah this needs a miracle. He's just not making it close enough and Samus is sapping too much. Even being within a few thousand is impressive though.
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#494 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:36:52 AM | message detail
Samus is easily a much bigger anchor than Shepard, really pleased to see Snake doing so well here.
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#495 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/15/2013 5:37:25 AM | message detail
As much as Snake has improved his day vote, he's still a far cry from Nintendo and Samus. *sigh*
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#496 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 5:38:39 AM | message detail
Well I wasn't kidding when I said Snake still needed outside support and everything to break his way today. It's just not a good day to take on Draven. Even before factoring in the strangling anchor that is Samus.

hence the chagrin at people acting like this isn't impressive <.<
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#497 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:39:04 AM | message detail
Obvious traffic has to increase enough to get Snake cutting, but man... this could take a while.

Snake needs some more help.
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#498 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:40:13 AM | message detail
I think it's exceptionally impressive!

link just stealing the show like always
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#499 | SubDeity | Posted 9/15/2013 5:40:44 AM | message detail
Play Der Langrisser
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#500 | raytan7585 | Posted 9/15/2013 5:40:50 AM | message detail
Snake. Snake?! SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE!
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