Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1177

#1 | Doctor_Vodka | Posted 9/15/2013 1:18:43 AM | message detail
Character Battle IX Finals - GameFAQs STRIKES BACK


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 1:19:14 AM | message detail
#3 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/15/2013 1:20:17 AM | message detail
Uh... go go Snake! For my expert, of course
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#4 | Doctor_Vodka (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/15/2013 1:29:45 AM | message detail
Should we rally for Samus on Nintendo places? Im serious. Any backfire votes for her would be more likely to go to Snake than Draven still helping Snake out
#5 | Error1355 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:31:39 AM | message detail
lets go snake
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#6 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/15/2013 1:32:35 AM | message detail
Doctor_Vodka posted...
Should we rally for Samus on Nintendo places? Im serious. Any backfire votes for her would be more likely to go to Snake than Draven still helping Snake out


Of course. I said that pre-match and I stand by it.
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Twitter. Kojima. A new era in GameFAQs contests.
#7 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 1:33:02 AM | message detail
Any attempt to rally for Samus will probably just die because she has no chance of winning.
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#8 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 1:33:11 AM | message detail
Doctor_Vodka posted...
Should we rally for Samus on Nintendo places? Im serious. Any backfire votes for her would be more likely to go to Snake than Draven still helping Snake out


Yes.

Just rallying for the poll anywhere that is not LoL oriented will help Snake, honestly.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#9 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2013 1:33:16 AM | message detail
Doctor_Vodka posted...
Should we rally for Samus on Nintendo places? Im serious. Any backfire votes for her would be more likely to go to Snake than Draven still helping Snake out


Absolutely. Any Samus run-off going to Snake would be massively helpful.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#10 | kurtfisto | Posted 9/15/2013 1:33:20 AM | message detail
I hope Allen's taking precautions so that the site won't go down tomorrow.
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#11 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:33:22 AM | message detail
So, when do we expect this to... get better?

Morning vote/9 AM-ish when GameFAQs votes become less awful? A little later than that because Snake isn't Link and Samus will ruin everything?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#12 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/15/2013 1:33:35 AM | message detail
Back over 700 now. But at least Draven seems to be falling off big-time too.
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Twitter. Kojima. A new era in GameFAQs contests.
#13 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 1:33:50 AM | message detail
Draven keeps dropping off. If only Snake could start spiking up again.
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#14 | Super Sonic 5 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:33:53 AM | message detail
I don't see a Samus rally doing much, but I guess it couldn't hurt. Doubtful it would help Draven in any way.
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http://rainwave.cc - Video Game Radio
#15 | AsurasKordoth | Posted 9/15/2013 1:33:55 AM | message detail
We cannot let Draven break 1000...
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-Merc
#16 | Zinganger | Posted 9/15/2013 1:34:05 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Any attempt to rally for Samus will probably just die because she has no chance of winning.


This.

Instead of putting effort into a Samus rally, why not try to actually make a difference with Snake rallies?
#17 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:34:16 AM | message detail
AsurasKordoth posted...
We cannot let Draven break 1000...

Oh, that's going to happen, don't doubt it.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#18 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 1:34:29 AM | message detail
When GameFAQs intake goes up, Snake will benefit. So yeah, morning vote. Samus will be helped some but she won't benefit nearly as much as normal because Snake has the bandwagon factor.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#19 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/15/2013 1:34:31 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
So, when do we expect this to... get better?

Morning vote/9 AM-ish when GameFAQs votes become less awful? A little later than that because Snake isn't Link and Samus will ruin everything?


Honestly? We don't know. I'd say the ASV - the morning vote will hurt Draven, but he has potential to spike in an absolutely stupid way (we're talking 800+ updates) if people flock to the Subreddit as the Worlds Championship approaches. Afterwards things should calm down a bunch.
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#20 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/15/2013 1:34:33 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Any attempt to rally for Samus will probably just die because she has no chance of winning.


Not if said rally begins by saying that Link gained over 10K votes on Draven during the day and we need Samus to do the same.
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Twitter. Kojima. A new era in GameFAQs contests.
#21 | Czill | Posted 9/15/2013 1:34:38 AM | message detail
Doctor_Vodka posted...
Should we rally for Samus on Nintendo places? Im serious. Any backfire votes for her would be more likely to go to Snake than Draven still helping Snake out


I've got a post on r/smashbros and Super Smash Bros. Melee's FB page, but it's hard to get any real circulation there.
#22 | Mershaaay | Posted 9/15/2013 1:36:13 AM | message detail
Alright friends

Look for another Trent tweet tomorrow, and I'll work on Cena, Kofi, and maybe AJ when I'm sober enough. Hopefully we've done enough for snake to keep it interesting overnight.
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#23 | AsurasKordoth | Posted 9/15/2013 1:36:38 AM | message detail
What's up with gamefaqscontests.com having erratic update times?
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-Merc
#24 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2013 1:36:43 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
So, when do we expect this to... get better?

Morning vote/9 AM-ish when GameFAQs votes become less awful? A little later than that because Snake isn't Link and Samus will ruin everything?


8:40 AM EST is when Draven peaked against Link. At this rate, with 4 hours to pad the lead Draven can't be up by more than 3k if Snake starts to comeback.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#25 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/15/2013 1:36:53 AM | message detail
Link started getting intermittent stalls at around 7:15 am, sustained stalls at 7:45, and consistent gains around 9:30. Snake has a weaker day vote, but the site-wide banner should more than make up for that.
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Twitter. Kojima. A new era in GameFAQs contests.
#26 | tgs2 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:36:54 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
So, when do we expect this to... get better?

Morning vote/9 AM-ish when GameFAQs votes become less awful? A little later than that because Snake isn't Link and Samus will ruin everything?


This reddit thread was also up for longer it should in theory start slowly dropping down the front page of r/lol quicker than the Link match did(right around late morning), but with the match close, it might just stay #6 which is bad was worlds draw closer.
#27 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:36:58 AM | message detail
Mershaaay posted...
Hopefully we've done enough for snake to keep it interesting overnight.

We probably have.

Compared to where Link was this is phenomenal for Snake.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#28 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 9/15/2013 1:37:14 AM | message detail
Mershaaay posted...
Alright friends

Look for another Trent tweet tomorrow, and I'll work on Cena, Kofi, and maybe AJ when I'm sober enough. Hopefully we've done enough for snake to keep it interesting overnight.


Thank you.
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DonDonDiDi
#29 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 1:37:15 AM | message detail
AsurasKordoth posted...
What's up with gamefaqscontests.com having erratic update times?


It's updating when the site is. The freeze was at 3 minutes into the match, so it's updating every 5 minutes from that point.
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#30 | perfectchaos83 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:37:17 AM | message detail
Yes, Rally Samus. Her votes won't spill into Draven. There is no negative to Rallying Samus in this.
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#31 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 1:38:16 AM | message detail
Oh, there's no negative to rallying Samus. I'm just skeptical you'll get much out of it. It won't sustain itself because Samus is so far out of it.
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#32 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:39:38 AM | message detail
Yeah, I think even in a pro-Nintendo/Samus area you're probably better off going for Snake based on Brawl.

I mean, if it's purely Metroid or something, sure it won't hurt, but Samus is so far behind it probably goes nowhere.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#33 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/15/2013 1:39:51 AM | message detail
Kinda shocked the Kojima tweet did so little, actually. I really thought that'd be a turning point.
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#34 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/15/2013 1:40:48 AM | message detail
rally for samus.
but mention that Snake is the one who needs the most help to win. so basically places where both should be doable.

it's harder finding places that wouldn't be okay with voting for Snake to win.
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#35 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/15/2013 1:40:55 AM | message detail
Separate note of interest: We are currently about 2500 votes behind the pace of our most popular poll ever and are currently outgaining it by a decent pace.

We could make history tonight, folks.
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#36 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:41:13 AM | message detail
Yeah, the Hayter tweets were much bigger than Kojima's. That was pretty surprising.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#37 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2013 1:41:32 AM | message detail
DidYouMWISMe posted...
Kinda shocked the Kojima tweet did so little, actually. I really thought that'd be a turning point.


Yeah, Kojima, then Trent and Snake... dropped off the face of the Earth. That was really jarring.
---
Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#38 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 1:41:48 AM | message detail
Kojima tweet didn't go to his English feed. That's what really hurt it.
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#39 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/15/2013 1:42:09 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Yeah, the Hayter tweets were much bigger than Kojima's. That was pretty surprising.


Probably because it was an RT, not an actual tweet, it only linked to the main page, and it was on a Japanese account.
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Twitter. Kojima. A new era in GameFAQs contests.
#40 | Zinganger | Posted 9/15/2013 1:42:18 AM | message detail
Wanglicious posted...
rally for samus.
but mention that Snake is the one who needs the most help to win. so basically places where both should be doable.

it's harder finding places that wouldn't be okay with voting for Snake to win.


Snake gets less anti-votes than Kirby.

Snake is practically unantivotable. There's practically no places that wouldn't be ok with it.
#41 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/15/2013 1:42:51 AM | message detail
DidYouMWISMe posted...
Kinda shocked the Kojima tweet did so little, actually. I really thought that'd be a turning point.


Japan must really hate GameFAQS.
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#42 | perfectchaos83 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:43:08 AM | message detail
I'd imagine because because it was a link to the front page and not to the actual poll itself. Like Trent's tweet was to the mobile GFAQs site.
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#43 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 1:43:38 AM | message detail
Augh Snake keeps dropping off
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#44 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/15/2013 1:43:41 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Kojima tweet didn't go to his English feed. That's what really hurt it.


Given most of America is asleep, I was actually putting stock in Kojima's Japanese fans caring enough to visit and vote.
...Guess I overestimated Japan's interest.
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#45 | Qwaar | Posted 9/15/2013 1:43:45 AM | message detail
Draven pulling away fast now.
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#46 | ItGetsWorse | Posted 9/15/2013 1:43:48 AM | message detail
Lol mershaaay is suspended

Allen literally sabotaging
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Don't let 'em fool ya
#47 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:43:53 AM | message detail
There are already more votes in this match than in yesterday's match.
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#48 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 1:44:15 AM | message detail
Suspended?

For what?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#49 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/15/2013 1:44:42 AM | message detail
ItGetsWorse posted...
Lol mershaaay is suspended

Allen literally sabotaging


xp1337 posted...
Suspended?

For what?

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Bearer of the Mark of Kan.
#50 | ItGetsWorse | Posted 9/15/2013 1:45:13 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Suspended?

For what?


Extha rape joke

If that sways the contest this is the best contest ever
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Don't let 'em fool ya