Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1176

#1 | raytan7585 | Posted 9/14/2013 11:54:43 PM | message detail
saveus.aj


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/14/2013 11:56:51 PM | message detail
#3 | xp1337 | Posted 9/14/2013 11:57:17 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
DAVID

HAYTER

should have been the topic intro
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#4 | Zeriercahl | Posted 9/14/2013 11:58:54 PM | message detail | (edited)
Has anyone messaged a Kotaku (or other gaming website) reporter about Hayter's support for Snake? It's borderline newsworthy, and on the off chance anyone posts a story about it, that's a huge influx of pro-Snake/Samus votes. Plus, any gaming article will make this big enough to grab Neogaf users (whose board usually doesn't allow topics focused on our contest).
#5 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/14/2013 11:57:42 PM | message detail
Solid Snake
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
SPECIAL 15-09-2013 REQUEST: Vote for Solid Snake in the GameFAQs Character Battle Final so he can win! We need you! http://www.gamefaqs.com

Okay, who edited this on Snake's Wiki page?
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#6 | Anagram | Posted 9/14/2013 11:57:53 PM | message detail
DAVID

****ING

HAYTER
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Not changing this sig until I decide to change this sig.
Started: July 6, 2005
#7 | elitewarrior500 | Posted 9/14/2013 11:58:28 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Solid Snake
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
SPECIAL 15-09-2013 REQUEST: Vote for Solid Snake in the GameFAQs Character Battle Final so he can win! We need you! http://www.gamefaqs.com

Okay, who edited this on Snake's Wiki page?


not gonna lie thats awesome
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oh ok
#8 | raytan7585 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/15/2013 12:00:11 AM | message detail
David Hayter's rally for Snake is dropping. aj and Kojima are our only hope.
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#9 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 12:00:34 AM | message detail
Zeriercahl posted...
Has anyone messaged a Kotaku (or other gaming website) reporter about Hayter's support for Snake? It's borderline newsworthy, and on the off chance anyone posts a story about it, that's a huge influx of pro-Snake/Samus votes. Plus, any gaming article will make this big enough to grab Neogaf users (whose board usually doesn't allow topics focused on our contest).


...I don't know if I'm ready to give Kotaku credit for Snake winning a contest.
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#10 | Anagram | Posted 9/15/2013 12:01:13 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Zeriercahl posted...
Has anyone messaged a Kotaku (or other gaming website) reporter about Hayter's support for Snake? It's borderline newsworthy, and on the off chance anyone posts a story about it, that's a huge influx of pro-Snake/Samus votes. Plus, any gaming article will make this big enough to grab Neogaf users (whose board usually doesn't allow topics focused on our contest).


...I don't know if I'm ready to give Kotaku credit for Snake winning a contest.


Desperate times
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Not changing this sig until I decide to change this sig.
Started: July 6, 2005
#11 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 12:02:05 AM | message detail
Football won the contest because Palmer had a fun entry, but he couldn't remember if his entry was a fun entry or not until Allen revealed it afterward.

Just an inside joke man!
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#12 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/15/2013 12:02:32 AM | message detail
From: Anagram | #463
Sakurai seems like the type to care about fans' opinions

This is a bigger lie than anything that Reddit has ever said about B8.
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With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
#13 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/15/2013 12:02:33 AM | message detail
Now's your chance, Snake!
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#14 | Dr_Football | Posted 9/15/2013 12:02:42 AM | message detail
from the wiki

In the Winter 2010 Contest, Dr_Football had a perfect bracket up until the Jecht > Phoenix Wright match. This led to a great fad where everyone looked at Football's guru bracket, jokingly said he'd go perfect the rest of the way and used his bracket to PERFECTLY PREDICT the rest of the contest -- basically Football had Charizard winning the Heart division and Snake upsetting Sephiroth, so people ran with it.
Football didn't end up getting a perfect or winning the whole contest, but he did win the Guru that year and his two big upsets came through. Now, all of Board 8 walks around keeled over after getting a football thrown at their nuts. DFF'D
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#15 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2013 12:02:54 AM | message detail
DidYouMWISMe posted...
Now's your chance, Snake!


:D Sup pal!
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#16 | Qwaar | Posted 9/15/2013 12:03:19 AM | message detail
That's a bit better Draven, keep it up.
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#17 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 12:03:31 AM | message detail
#18 | Zeriercahl | Posted 9/15/2013 12:03:49 AM | message detail
On that note guys, maybe Kotaku would want to report on Reddit's invasion of GameFAQs as well. Draven being in the contest finals of a long-going character battle series is unusual enough to maybe, together with Hayter's involvement, turn this into a story.
#19 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2013 12:03:53 AM | message detail
oh f*** off Draven
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#20 | Doctor_Vodka | Posted 9/15/2013 12:03:56 AM | message detail
Solid Snake the true hero of this contest. Putting Links efforts to shame
#21 | Anagram | Posted 9/15/2013 12:03:58 AM | message detail
-hotdogturtle-- posted...
From: Anagram | #463
Sakurai seems like the type to care about fans' opinions

This is a bigger lie than anything that Reddit has ever said about B8.


I mean about what he thinks his fans' opinions are, not what they actually are. Not even he could misinterpret things and think his fans like Draven.
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#22 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 12:04:12 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Samus gets her first sub-100 update.

Took too long!
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#23 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/15/2013 12:04:19 AM | message detail
Argh no Draven.

It's a lost cause.
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I just beat Metroid: Other M, and while I loved the game it turned out to be completely not worth thinking over it for years.
#24 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2013 12:04:36 AM | message detail
My NeoGAF source says that if someone that's on both B8 and NeoGAF made a topic about the Hayter tweet about the contest then GAF probably wouldn't delete it.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#25 | creativename | Posted 9/15/2013 12:05:29 AM | message detail
Dr_Football posted...
from the wiki

In the Winter 2010 Contest, Dr_Football had a perfect bracket up until the Jecht > Phoenix Wright match. This led to a great fad where everyone looked at Football's guru bracket, jokingly said he'd go perfect the rest of the way and used his bracket to PERFECTLY PREDICT the rest of the contest -- basically Football had Charizard winning the Heart division and Snake upsetting Sephiroth, so people ran with it.
Football didn't end up getting a perfect or winning the whole contest, but he did win the Guru that year and his two big upsets came through. Now, all of Board 8 walks around keeled over after getting a football thrown at their nuts. DFF'D

Well, that's impressive. Still doesn't remotely compare to Olympic hockey factor or David Hayter factor though! And I'm pretty sure you'd agree with that >_>
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#26 | DidYouMWISMe | Posted 9/15/2013 12:05:30 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
DidYouMWISMe posted...
Now's your chance, Snake!


:D Sup pal!


Snake's not doing so bad in the finals, that's pretty cool.
Gonna have to find out who the hell Draven is, though.
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#27 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/15/2013 12:05:45 AM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
That's a bit better Draven, keep it up.


If you want Draven to keep it up, make a Reddit topic to coordinate mass linking on Twitch for when the games begin. That's Draven's silver bullet. Or Should I say Infinity Edge?
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#28 | Dr_Football | Posted 9/15/2013 12:06:21 AM | message detail
Well yea, but im always partial to good times named after me!
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#29 | elitewarrior500 | Posted 9/15/2013 12:06:31 AM | message detail
looks like im not gonna get sleep again.. hopefully i do not do anything stupid and get myself warned again for attacking a draven supporter
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GT: LegendaryFalco
oh ok
#30 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 12:06:53 AM | message detail
Hockey Factor was the most absurd and hilarious thing to happen.

god i still can't believe that was a factor
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#31 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2013 12:07:02 AM | message detail
Nevermind, seems there's already a GAF thread about the final match. They seem on our side (Draven who? Go Snake! etc)
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#32 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/15/2013 12:07:07 AM | message detail
At least we're 100% certain that this format should never return if we want a contest where we can discuss legitimacy or stuff.

Though if you buy into my theory that Zelda/Metroid characters boosted because of early 2000s nostalgia and/or them symbolizing what Nintendo used to be as opposed to the crap the company is now by comparison, it means that we would have just seen another boring Link win. At least this final is kind of interesting.
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I just beat Metroid: Other M, and while I loved the game it turned out to be completely not worth thinking over it for years.
#33 | Zinganger | Posted 9/15/2013 12:07:11 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
My NeoGAF source says that if someone that's on both B8 and NeoGAF made a topic about the Hayter tweet about the contest then GAF probably wouldn't delete it.


Someone do this now.
#34 | creativename | Posted 9/15/2013 12:07:38 AM | message detail
Doctor_Vodka posted...
Solid Snake the true hero of this contest. Putting Links efforts to shame

The Draven we're seeing today is a really weak version though.

Link faced probably the strongest entrant ever (excluding himself), while Draven is dropping the ball big time here.
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#35 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2013 12:07:54 AM | message detail
I'm just living in fear of Draven shooting up over 400 or something.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#36 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/15/2013 12:08:10 AM | message detail
Still can't crack that 600-vote barrier again.
#37 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 12:08:25 AM | message detail
SNAAAAAAAAKE
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"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
#38 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2013 12:08:30 AM | message detail
Snake gettin' no respect still

but he'll get to prove the naysayers wrong when he faces Link tomorrow <_<
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#39 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/15/2013 12:08:35 AM | message detail
Ooooh, a seesaw. They're splitting the vote evenly now!
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#40 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/15/2013 12:08:37 AM | message detail
yeah, it's still the early AM hours.
if you can get stuff on big sites, get big tweets, and keep the efforts strong it SHOULD spiral out of control.
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#41 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/15/2013 12:08:38 AM | message detail
This performance isn't 'heroic' like Link's. Link's match was GameFAQs being buried around a dark cloud of evil before he came riding back to save us, only being stopped at the last moment by dark forces.

Snake...is not being buried. He's struggling. And he's no hero...just an old killer, hired to do some wetwork.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#42 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2013 12:08:44 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
I'm just living in fear of Draven shooting up over 400 or something.


Oh, I think we're all afraid it's coming. That's why every update is so intense at this point!
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#43 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 12:08:57 AM | message detail
I can't believe Snake is still putting up this kind of fight.

I thought by now we'd be well into the dark times of 60 vote gains.
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#44 | Zinganger | Posted 9/15/2013 12:09:03 AM | message detail
6 away.

Come on Snake.

You can do this.
#45 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2013 12:09:06 AM | message detail
Wanglicious posted...
yeah, it's still the early AM hours.
if you can get stuff on big sites, get big tweets, and keep the efforts strong it SHOULD spiral out of control.


I can't stay up to do this, guys. I really need to recharge. I'll sleep til 8-9 or so then hop back on.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#46 | Luigiman59 | Posted 9/15/2013 12:10:15 AM | message detail
Can we get Allen to change the poll tomorrow to Draven vs Snake?

One last battle, not for ideals, or character battles, no points on the line, no Samus interfering, just 2 warriors, fighting for pride, hand to hand.
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If Luigiman says it, then it must be true. -oj1985
#47 | xp1337 | Posted 9/15/2013 12:10:16 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Wanglicious posted...
yeah, it's still the early AM hours.
if you can get stuff on big sites, get big tweets, and keep the efforts strong it SHOULD spiral out of control.


I can't stay up to do this, guys. I really need to recharge. I'll sleep til 8-9 or so then hop back on.

I can just tell this will be Link/Draven II for me.

Be here for like 18 hours then just crash and miss the end. =(
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#48 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/15/2013 12:10:22 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
Doctor_Vodka posted...
Solid Snake the true hero of this contest. Putting Links efforts to shame

The Draven we're seeing today is a really weak version though.

Link faced probably the strongest entrant ever (excluding himself), while Draven is dropping the ball big time here.


L-Block 2007 final was probably still our strongest entrant ever. But 2013 Link and Draven are close.

Scratch that. R2 Draven was our strongest entrant ever by a mile. No one should ever be able to do that to MMX. (Then again, I still agree with Lopen that those votes were incredibly suspicious.)
#49 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/15/2013 12:10:43 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
The Draven we're seeing today is a really weak version though..


Not sure I agree with this. The votals are still exceedingly high, so I think it's likely that Snake is just sapping a lot of Draven's rallying, even moreso than Link did. I mean, it's Snake. People who are fans don't vote against him.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#50 | perfectchaos83 | Posted 9/15/2013 12:11:01 AM | message detail
I tweeted Kojima and Keifer Sutherland (Not sure the likely hood of success on that one, I'm thinking .05%)

GAH! This is too intense!
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