Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1175

#1 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/14/2013 10:15:28 PM | message detail
Can we get to Part 1200 before the contest ends?!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:16:02 PM | message detail
If you count the Bonus Poll, maybe.
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#3 | xp1337 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:16:09 PM | message detail
Yes. Link will carry us there. >_>
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#4 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:17:17 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Yes. Link will carry us there. >_>


Link: 1st place in carrying
#5 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/14/2013 10:17:37 PM | message detail
Entropy always wins.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#6 | UberPyro64 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:18:04 PM | message detail
Simple role: Don't nominate LOL characters. We do that, we're good.
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Super Smash Bros. 3DS/Wii U Official Site: http://www.smashbros.com/us/
#7 | xp1337 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:19:51 PM | message detail
If Snake can't slow this down he's going to fall behind Link and then trends probably just seal his fate.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#8 | -Tofa7- | Posted 9/14/2013 10:19:59 PM | message detail
Getting ugly now. Looks like one way traffic until the reddit rally falls off a lot more. I think the lead will be too big by then though.
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"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."
#9 | ZFS | Posted 9/14/2013 10:20:16 PM | message detail
So what is this about a Link bonus poll? Was that confirmed?
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#10 | Pentrox | Posted 9/14/2013 10:20:33 PM | message detail
the r/gaming rally is doing better than expected but it's still pitiful, 20+ upvotes :D :D
#11 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/14/2013 10:20:35 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
So what is this about a Link bonus poll? Was that confirmed?


Yep, if you skip ahead to the next poll on the results page, it shows up as Draven vs. Link.
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http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif
#12 | perfectchaos83 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:20:38 PM | message detail
Whatever happened to trying to get Hideo Kojima or David Hayter?

Those would be the best right now.

And the most Relevant.
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Bianca and Noel have swapped clothes! By metallic_trance. :3
#13 | Lopen | Posted 9/14/2013 10:20:44 PM | message detail
Perfectly legitimate rally trends nothing to see here
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#14 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/14/2013 10:21:01 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
So what is this about a Link bonus poll? Was that confirmed?


Yes. If Draven wins, he'll face Link tomorrow, 1v1.
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http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.
#15 | JJH777 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:21:13 PM | message detail
I did my part and tweeted AJ. Snake is really impressive here. I still think Link is the only hope though.
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9/1/13-The Hero of GameFAQs fought bravely but fell to an unrelenting horde supported by a corrupt tyranny.
R.I.P. Hero of Time, 7 time CB Champion, Link
#16 | ZFS | Posted 9/14/2013 10:21:23 PM | message detail
Link against Draven 1v1? Allen redeemed!

The Hero returns again you are screwed Draven
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#17 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:21:36 PM | message detail
Serious question:

Should we make a petition or poll to change the bonus match to Link vs Snake, regardless of who wins today?
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#18 | xp1337 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:21:43 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
So what is this about a Link bonus poll? Was that confirmed?

One more day for us to believe.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#19 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/14/2013 10:21:53 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Perfectly legitimate rally trends nothing to see here


That wasn't tongue-in-cheek, was it? Because these seem totally legit to me.
#20 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:21:54 PM | message detail
quick, have the official Sony youtube channel make a video rallying Snake
#21 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/14/2013 10:22:01 PM | message detail
Yeah this is honestly pretty annoying. The match was actually looking to be potentially close and interesting, and then one or two tweets makes it a blowout? Okay.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#22 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/14/2013 10:22:10 PM | message detail
perfectchaos83 posted...
Whatever happened to trying to get Hideo Kojima or David Hayter?

Those would be the best right now.

And the most Relevant.


I tweeted both Hayter and Kojima. Hayter seems like he'd do it, but again it's a matter of him noticing our tweets to him.

Maybe we should plan a mass tweet to Hayter at a specific time. Same with the others.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#23 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/14/2013 10:22:23 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
So what is this about a Link bonus poll? Was that confirmed?


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5267
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#24 | JJH777 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:22:24 PM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Serious question:

Should we make a petition or poll to change the bonus match to Link vs Snake, regardless of who wins today?


No imo. If Snake wins I'd support it but Draven is going to win and I want Draven to lose at least once before this contest is over.
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9/1/13-The Hero of GameFAQs fought bravely but fell to an unrelenting horde supported by a corrupt tyranny.
R.I.P. Hero of Time, 7 time CB Champion, Link
#25 | xp1337 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:22:37 PM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Serious question:

Should we make a petition or poll to change the bonus match to Link vs Snake, regardless of who wins today?

While I personally would rather see that no matter what happens here, if Draven wins I can't be consistent and advocate keeping him out. The winner of this match should get Link.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#26 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:23:02 PM | message detail
Yeah this is honestly pretty annoying. The match was actually looking to be potentially close and interesting, and then one or two tweets makes it a blowout? Okay.

This is what happens, you try to push, they push back harder.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 179/324 Today's Pick: Link
#27 | Zinganger | Posted 9/14/2013 10:23:19 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
perfectchaos83 posted...
Whatever happened to trying to get Hideo Kojima or David Hayter?

Those would be the best right now.

And the most Relevant.


I tweeted both Hayter and Kojima. Hayter seems like he'd do it, but again it's a matter of him noticing our tweets to him.

Maybe we should plan a mass tweet to Hayter at a specific time. Same with the others.


How about that time being now?
#28 | ZFS | Posted 9/14/2013 10:23:22 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
ZFS posted...
So what is this about a Link bonus poll? Was that confirmed?

One more day for us to believe.


from the grave to save us the greatest ever
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#29 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/14/2013 10:23:31 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Yeah this is honestly pretty annoying. The match was actually looking to be potentially close and interesting, and then one or two tweets makes it a blowout? Okay.


I know you can't see this, KP, but considering this is exactly what the Snake Army wanted to do...deal with it. In this arena, each contestant has access to the same weapons. All that matters is how well they're utilized!
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http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.
#30 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/14/2013 10:23:41 PM | message detail
Stop it Snake my heart can't take it
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http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif
#31 | Qwaar | Posted 9/14/2013 10:23:42 PM | message detail
Can't believe some are resorting to pestering AJ on twitter.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#32 | tgs2 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:24:19 PM | message detail
Jesus. Does being at 6 instead of 7 really mean a difference of 200 votes an update?
#33 | Espeon8 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:24:26 PM | message detail
Huh, I guess Rivington's tweet actually did work.

For those who don't know, Rivington is one of the casters and hosts of the LoL World Championships, which takes place tomorrow (technically today).
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And the reproaches of those who reproach You have fallen on me."
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#34 | WellThoughtName | Posted 9/14/2013 10:24:33 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Yeah this is honestly pretty annoying. The match was actually looking to be potentially close and interesting, and then one or two tweets makes it a blowout? Okay.

This is what happens, you try to push, they push back harder.


What sucks is that the people who tweet think they're doing it to get a character from a game they love to win. But they're just falling into the trap of the people who're doing it to get people mad.
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"A game with amazing story and mediocre gameplay usually beats a game with amazing gameplay and mediocre story." - Vlado, Gaming Expert
#35 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2013 10:24:39 PM | message detail
Snake is doing pretty well stalling Draven here. His day vote is still going to be very good compared to Draven's. Not Link good in the slightest, but that just means he can't let Draven go up 6000+ votes. <_<
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#36 | xp1337 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:26:17 PM | message detail | (edited)
ZFS posted...
xp1337 posted...
ZFS posted...
So what is this about a Link bonus poll? Was that confirmed?

One more day for us to believe.


from the grave to save us the greatest ever

he's even here with us in this very match.

he never quit on us even when the site quit on him

Also, Snake with a stall.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#37 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/14/2013 10:25:05 PM | message detail
meanwhile samus continues her steady decline. will she make 20%?!
also go bug silicon knights too if they have anything.
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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.
#38 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/14/2013 10:25:05 PM | message detail
It's not a blowout. It was 1 tweet that gave Draven a 400-vote spike, give or take. Snake should go back to stalling and cutting for the next 30 minutes to an hour. It didn't reverse trends. It just delayed them.
#39 | Pentrox | Posted 9/14/2013 10:25:29 PM | message detail
The LoLers managed to get this guy tweet for Draven https://twitter.com/RivingtonThe3rd
#40 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/14/2013 10:25:30 PM | message detail
If a tweet from a goddamn announcer can bury Snake for several updates, then he has no chance of winning this, unfortunately.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#41 | Noma9 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:25:43 PM | message detail
Man, you guys. I finally made an account after twenty years of visiting the site because I needed to vent about what a crazy mess this whole contest has been and now... I just have no words. Well, aside from "You guys are nuts, but in a fun way", because I've been lurking the stats topics hard this contest and wow, you guys are nuts. But in a fun way.

Really though, I think this whole thing was a forgone conclusion the moment Link lost despite everything.
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#42 | RavenHusky14 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:25:51 PM | message detail
Espeon8 posted...
Huh, I guess Rivington's tweet actually did work.

For those who don't know, Rivington is one of the casters and hosts of the LoL World Championships, which takes place tomorrow (technically today).


Yep. Two can play the Twitter game!
#43 | ZFS | Posted 9/14/2013 10:26:01 PM | message detail
Alright Kanz you can stop pretending that rallying fir Snake is anywhere near as easy and simple as it is for Draven. There is not easier, no effort required rally like a LoL rally.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#44 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:26:04 PM | message detail
WellThoughtName posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Yeah this is honestly pretty annoying. The match was actually looking to be potentially close and interesting, and then one or two tweets makes it a blowout? Okay.

This is what happens, you try to push, they push back harder.


What sucks is that the people who tweet think they're doing it to get a character from a game they love to win. But they're just falling into the trap of the people who're doing it to get people mad.


it'd be funny if the dude suddenly tweeted for Snake
#45 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/14/2013 10:26:04 PM | message detail
Wanglicious posted...
meanwhile samus continues her steady decline. will she make 20%?!
also go bug silicon knights too if they have anything.


I can't imagine anyone from Silicon Knights having any noteworthy amount of followers!
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#46 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/14/2013 10:26:07 PM | message detail
Espeon8 posted...
Huh, I guess Rivington's tweet actually did work.

For those who don't know, Rivington is one of the casters and hosts of the LoL World Championships, which takes place tomorrow (technically today).


Jesus Christ, that means he could probably link people tomorrow. We really are on a lost cause here unless AJ.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#47 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/14/2013 10:26:54 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
If a tweet from a goddamn announcer can bury Snake for several updates, then he has no chance of winning this, unfortunately.


And he's only got about 48000 followers.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#48 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2013 10:27:13 PM | message detail
Just please, please, can we not respond to the invading trolls in this topic? For Snake's sake?
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#49 | JJH777 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:27:27 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
If a tweet from a goddamn announcer can bury Snake for several updates, then he has no chance of winning this, unfortunately.


That's actually not as bad as you think. In E-sports there is kind of a strange phenomenon where the big caster personalities are actually more popular than any of the pro players or developers/what not.
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9/1/13-The Hero of GameFAQs fought bravely but fell to an unrelenting horde supported by a corrupt tyranny.
R.I.P. Hero of Time, 7 time CB Champion, Link
#50 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/14/2013 10:27:30 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
If a tweet from a goddamn announcer can bury Snake for several updates, then he has no chance of winning this, unfortunately.


And he's only got about 48000 followers.


that just means AJ can give Snake several thousand votes per update!