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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1173
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it
makes absolutely no sense that if z > x, z + y < x + y. i don't
believe that for one second. i'd sooner say Mega Man is SFFing Pikachu. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
creativename posted... KamikazePotato posted...Kratos is an awful character and has no reason to be popular outside of God of War hype. I wonder how much Lloyd was projected to get on Big Daddy from the 2010 stats... Not that that'll be useful because we have to account for SFF. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
You know whose staying power I've been really shocked by, even if he's been reliably weakening year after year after year? Alucard. Even today - never did I imagine he would still be competitive with Falcon after all this time and age, and yet he still won. At least in Crono's case he was the star of the #2 Square RPG on the site at one point. Alucard is basically running off of... SotN. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
When did Snake become so good with the day vote, looking at the chart, Snake didn't lose much ground against Pokemon in the day. --- DonDonDiDi |
Xuxon posted... it makes absolutely no sense that if z > x, z + y < x + y. i don't believe that for one second. i'd sooner say Mega Man is SFFing Pikachu. With SFF mechanics, yes, it does make mathematical sense. Let's take some character X who is slightly weaker than Cloud. And another character Y who is slightly weaker than Squall. But X and Y have no overlap. X+Y will beat Cloud+Squall, despite *both* being weaker than their counterparts. Because Cloud kills Squall's strength with SFF. The math works out fine. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Karma Hunter posted... You know whose staying power I've been really shocked by, even if he's been reliably weakening year after year after year? Perhaps ties to the Dracula mythos reduce his rate of decline...? It does make him more memorable, at least. ZinsanityCraze posted... When did Snake become so good with the day vote, looking at the chart, Snake didn't lose much ground against Pokemon in the day. Yeah the MGS day vote has been surprisingly impressive all contest. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
From: creativename | Posted: 9/14/2013 2:14:19 AM | #255 Xuxon posted...it makes absolutely no sense that if z > x, z + y < x + y. i don't believe that for one second. i'd sooner say Mega Man is SFFing Pikachu. yes THAT works fine. but you were talking about 3 entries in the same series. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
Karma Hunter posted... You know whose staying power I've been really shocked by, even if he's been reliably weakening year after year after year? Now that you mention it, I'm surprised he hasn't been hit with the same decline that, say, the CT crew's been suffering. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Xuxon posted... yes THAT works fine. but you were talking about 3 entries in the same series. What? I don't follow you. Though I should have said no SFF, rather than no overlap - obviously Squirtle and Pikachu overlap, but there is no SFF. SFF is what really throws a wrench into things. Pikachu today is nothing like Pikachu during the Squirtle match, he's far weaker (oviously). The LFF weakened Pikachu against Snake, but the SFF/LFF combo is just murdering him here. So mathematically we have no way of knowing whether Mewtwo+Pikachu is actually stronger or weaker than Squirtle+Pikachu. Mewtwo being stronger than Squirtle has paradoxical effects - Mewtwo draws more votes than Squirtle, but at the same time reduces Pikachu's vote intake a lot more than Squirtle did. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Alucard's declined plenty. He beat Kirby back in the day. I just would have expected someone of his pedigree to be below the fodder line after so long with no support. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
if
Mewtwo is taking those votes directly from Pikachu, then the entity
Mewtwo + Pikachu is still stronger than the entity Squirtle + Pikachu --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
Fayt_Esteed posted... Now that you mention it, I'm surprised he hasn't been hit with the same decline that, say, the CT crew's been suffering. Well aside from the "result looks good for Crono!" joke, most results actually *have* looked good for Crono! Cloud obviously dropped a lot, but without rallies he wins comfortably over Squirtle - he would do much better against Dante than the stats say, because Dante is not rallyable. So Cloud does still have pretty good raw strength against non-rallyable entities. So Frog looks pretty decent based on his showing against Cloud. Yes it's a weakened Cloud, but one whose raw strength is still pretty good. Avoiding a doubling against even modern Cloud is not bad at all. And Pikachu's run has made Crono look good. Crono looked fine in the Mario/MMX bonus match as well. So this decline the CT has been suffering has either been stopped, or even reversed. They actually look stronger than they have in a while (well except Magus, but...he's Magus). --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Xuxon posted... if Mewtwo is taking those votes directly from Pikachu, then the entity Mewtwo + Pikachu is still stronger than the entity Squirtle + Pikachu Not necessarily - Mewtwo might not just steal from Pikachu, he may in fact make him weaker. People may just disregard Pikachu due to Mewtwo's presence. Multi-ways are wonky, and we've had some weird results where two overlapping entities look weaker combined against another entity, than the stronger of the overlapping entities would look 1v1. Basically don't trust s*** from multi-ways! :P --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename posted... Fayt_Esteed posted...Now that you mention it, I'm surprised he hasn't been hit with the same decline that, say, the CT crew's been suffering. I still think it's more the result of low votals than anything else. I can't bring myself to NOT consider Crono the weak link of the Noble Nine. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
It's
fun to speculate but I'm still taking the position that due to 3-ways
and RallyFAQs this contest tells us almost nothing new about character
strength. How many wonky factors come into play here? LFF, SFF, LPF... I
think I'm sticking with: Link is still king, retire him. Cloud, Samus, Snake, and Mario are fine and still next in strength. Other N9'ers are pretty much next, maybe some ambiguity with Crono and Sonic. Pokιmon got a little bit better, who knows how much exactly, 3-ways exaggerates the boost. --- ... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT! - A. Scalia |
Fayt_Esteed posted... I still think it's more the result of low votals than anything else. I can't bring myself to NOT consider Crono the weak link of the Noble Nine. Weaker than Sonic...? IngmarBirdman posted... It's fun to speculate but I'm still taking the position that due to 3-ways and RallyFAQs this contest tells us almost nothing new about character strength. How many wonky factors come into play here? LFF, SFF, LPF... I think I'm sticking with: I agree LInk is king, but no need to retire. Save him for the championship match, at least (and I don't mean in a bonus poll sense, I mean a real title match). Excluding him altogether is not a good idea, especially since he's everyone's hero again. Plus he brings in the votes, and that's the entire purpose of these contests. I'd say Link, then Snake...after that it becomes pretty nebulous. Cloud and Sephiroth for instance will vary wildly in strength depending on whether their opponent is rallyable/bandwagonable or not. If Mario does better against Squirtle than Cloud, but could still lose 1v1 (Mario is rallyable, but he's no Pokemon), who is stronger? Things might be even weirder with Samus, as she's even less rallyable than Mario. And yeah Pokemon are just wildcards. Who the heck knows how they'd do 1v1. These things are all over the damn place. For as much as I think Charizard flopped miserably, I still think in Squirtle's place he could have beaten Cloud. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Remember how Samus performed poorly in the "which 1 seed do you think will beat Link?" poll? So much for that. --- I just beat Metroid: Other M, and while I loved the game it turned out to be completely not worth thinking over it for years. |
I
think if you switch around Squirtle, Charizard, and Pikachu, then there
paths and results are all essentially the same. They just had different
circumstances due to bracket placement. After seeing the contest in its totality, Crono really did not look that bad at all. Right now I think the N9 is like: Link Snake, Samus Mega Man Cloud, Crono, Sephiroth, Sonic --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
and losing to Vivi kicked Mario out obviously --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
Man Mewtwo is dominating. I wonder if Pikachu wasn't there, he would beat MM 1vs1? --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
Very
impressed by MM here. He dropped below 50%, but this performance would
still put him ahead of Snake (since Mewtwo > Squirtle), if we take
SFF matches at face value. --- Best.Result.Ever: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5246 |
Looks like Mewtwo finally became the strongest Pokemon like I had originally predicted he would be back in 2007! Never understood how this dude nearly lost to Midna once. Zelda truly is Pokryptonite. --- http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif |
Did
I miss something or was there no bonus match last round? Even though it
could have been Link/Cloud/Mario? Was there an explanation? |
Ultimaphazon posted... Very impressed by MM here. He dropped below 50%, but this performance would still put him ahead of Snake (since Mewtwo > Squirtle), if we take SFF matches at face value. That's why we should never take SFF matches at face value. This match just means that Mewtwo is more liked among the Pokemon community, the size of said community remains unchanged . Snake essentially scored better percentage on the same competition. --- The cycle of life and death continues. We will live. And they will die. |
Jelt posted... Did I miss something or was there no bonus match last round? Even though it could have been Link/Cloud/Mario? Was there an explanation? No reason to have a bonus match between rounds when we hit 24 hours. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif |
Unless
Samus absolutely smashes Snake in the final it's fair to say that Bonus
poll results aren't any reflection on contest situations. |
KamikazePotato posted... Kratos is an awful character and has no reason to be popular outside of God of War hype. While that's very subjective, there are signs pointing to Kratos having dropped over the years, like Charizard's exposure and him and Ares performing worse on Cloud/Seph than Lloyd/Kratos. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
Do
people not realize Charizard is the Sephiroth of pokemon? He is a
popular pokemon that is hated and I mean hated by the community. This
basically has to do with the charfans crying over stealth rock since its
inception into the metagame. Personally Id have rather seen a mewtwo, pikachu, charizard battle over this one atleast for the sake of not having an obvious blowout. --- fEeD mEh!!1 |
KamikazePotato posted... I think if you switch around Squirtle, Charizard, and Pikachu, then there paths and results are all essentially the same. They just had different circumstances due to bracket placement. Eh, I think Charizard would've struggled to beat Crono and wouldn't have come close to Cloud. I'd also take Pikachu or Squirtle to win the Mega Man match. Of course, that would've likely resulted in Pikachu or Squirtle being in the final if Charizard bombed to Cloud, so it's a shame Charizard was put in a spot where he could be embarrassed by Zelda and Mega Man. Wait, no it's not, it's still god damn hilarious. As for the dismembered, charred remnants of the Noble Nine: Link Mario/Samus Snake/Cloud Mega Man Sephiroth Crono Sonic the Chokehog As for having Mario in #2, it's simply because it's hard for me to take Samus > Mario seriously unless I see it happen directly. Otherwise, I think Samus is a strong choice for #2 overall, while it's difficult to justify it for Mario. I think Snake and Cloud are equals at this point since I think Snake would've also lost to a Pokemon if there were a neutral third opponent, and I think Sephiroth has fallen far enough that Mega Man would beat him cleanly. As for Crono, this contest suggests that CT never actually dropped that much and 2010 was a fluke, and in fact makes a direct comparison between him and Sephiroth through Missingno look legit. I'll admit Crono > Sephiroth would be a tempting upset pick for me. Finally, I'd take a few elites to beat Sonic 1v1 now, like Vivi, Tifa, Zelda, Mewtwo/Squirtle/Pikachu, Luigi, Kirby, and [insert LoL champion here]. Finally, given Mewtwo's dominant performance here (well, considering the circumstances), who's the strongest character you'd take him to beat 1v1? --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
xXkewls0358 posted... Do people not realize Charizard is the Sephiroth of pokemon? He is a popular pokemon that is hated and I mean hated by the community. This basically has to do with the charfans crying over stealth rock since its inception into the metagame. And that wouldn't have been an easy Mewtwo > Pikachu > Charizard blowout? --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Chart from yesterday: Time | Samus | Red | Mega | Votes | Demographic EBV | 32.76% | 26.33% | 40.92% | 980 | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 35.21% | 27.36% | 37.43% | 6773 | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 39.08% | 27.68% | 33.24% | 11539 | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 39.99% | 29.52% | 30.49% | 6544 | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 39.18% | 27.84% | 32.98% | 12298 | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 38.26% | 28.61% | 33.12% | 12641 | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 38.36% | 29.01% | 32.63% | 2427 | (22:00-24:00) X-Stats: Samus Aran 50.00% Mega Man 46.41% Charizard 46.38% Zelda 46.35% Tifa Lockhart 44.78% Pokemon Trainer Red 42.28% Vivi Ornitier 39.24% Mario 39.15% L-Block 37.00% Dragonborn 36.34% Auron 35.11% Squall Leonhart 34.59% Magikarp 34.02% Missingno 32.94% Tidus 32.90% Yuna 32.19% Riku 31.33% Zero 30.44% Tom Nook 30.05% Master Chief 29.77% Revolver Ocelot 29.45% Urdnot Wrex 29.27% Pyramid Head 28.85% John Marston 28.33% Cecil Harvey 27.76% Donkey Kong 27.05% Chun-Li 27.01% Jill Valentine 26.86% Amaterasu 26.74% Ezio Auditore da Firenze 25.85% Knuckles the Echidna 25.64% Pit 25.53% Rikku 25.17% Weighted Companion Cube 24.89% Lightning 24.69% Wario 24.56% Kratos 24.44% Claire Redfield 24.37% ? Block 23.88% Ganondorf 23.49% Palutena 22.70% Claptrap 22.62% Roxas 22.54% Lenneth Valkyrie 21.90% Adam Jensen 21.77% Sandbag 21.58% Catherine 21.38% Miles Tails Prower 21.02% Banjo 20.95% Neku Sakuraba 20.84% Celes Chere 20.42% Rayman 19.69% Corvo Attano 18.26% Creeper 18.03% Duke Nukem 17.58% Bomberman 17.50% Geno 17.39% Seifer Almasy 17.14% Lyndis 16.85% Recette Lemongrass 16.35% Travis Touchdown 15.97% Kratos Aurion 15.91% Boko 15.89% Isaac Clarke 15.56% Vaas Montenegro 15.34% Mike Haggar 15.29% King of All Cosmos 14.87% Marisa Kirasame 14.38% Sackboy 14.29% Nier 14.16% Cirno 13.96% Falco Lombardi 13.90% Vyse 12.60% Teemo 12.59% Red Bird 11.82% Sissel 10.23% Fawful 10.20% Guybrush Threepwood 10.19% Max Payne 9.61% Adol Christin 8.50% Commander Video 7.45% Samus's prediction percentage was 6.33% --- http://gifsoup.com/view4/2077316/thane-dance-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view1/1334641/pop-that-collar-o.gif |
Woo Dragonborn > Squall Unfortunately, these x-stats aren't nearly as funny since all the strong characters don't look that weak here! Well, other than Samus 60/40ing Mario! Also, Guybrush is totally underrated in the x-stats. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Bad news is that we totally nominated the wrong Jokemon back in 2010! Magikarp could've beaten Seph, looks like! --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonhjpguz.jpg |
Not_Wylvane posted... xXkewls0358 posted...Do people not realize Charizard is the Sephiroth of pokemon? He is a popular pokemon that is hated and I mean hated by the community. This basically has to do with the charfans crying over stealth rock since its inception into the metagame. Nope, while I agree mewtwo would likely be the winner, not sure where charizards votes would mix in with the other two. Certainly wouldn't be 50% of the total though nor be as obvious of a result of split of one game versus another. --- fEeD mEh!!1 |
Nice to see Mewtwo beating the rat see easily ,but two Pokemon in the match kinda ruins it. Now Mega will just win because the two pokemon will divide the votes... Pika/Mewtwo/Zard of Mega man/Mewtwo/(insert other character here) would be more interesting. --- Support Shantae: Half-Genie Hero kickstarter. Miyamoto: This Zelda was like losing my virginity, in the sense that we were making something completely new . |
Magikarp 34.02% Missingno 32.94% glorious --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Karma Hunter posted... Alucard's declined plenty. He beat Kirby back in the day. Alucard HAS had support, though. He was in both Sorrow games, Harmony of Despair, Judgement, and the Mercury Steam games, at a minimum. Just because none of those games are SotN tier doesn't mean they don't count. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. |
It may be a SFF match, but I like what this says about Samus. Snake and Samus look to be a step up from the rest of the NN. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Good
show for Megaman and Samus. If Megaman ends at 49% here, then Mewtwo +
Pikachu = Squirtle + Pikachu means......Samus beats Snake with about
51.5%. Gulp. MM probably ends lower than that, but I'd say there's almost no chance he falls far enough for Snake to win that extrapolation at this point. Well I did say the Pokemon match was fairly bad for Snake. Guess we'll see tomorrow. I'm wary of SFF though, both here and in the MM/Samus match. --- 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011 10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more. |
Anyone want to take Geno > Duke Nukem? --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
xXkewls0358 posted... Do people not realize Charizard is the Sephiroth of pokemon? He is a popular pokemon that is hated and I mean hated by the community. This basically has to do with the charfans crying over stealth rock since its inception into the metagame. I thought that Charizard's popularity would be hurt by him being a latecomer in the Pokemon games, as opposed to a starter like Squirtle or the series' mascot like Pikachu. No idea what the deal with Mewtwo is then however. Probably just a combination of Mega Mewtwo + Melee + HE GOT HIS OWN MOVIE. --- I just beat Metroid: Other M, and while I loved the game it turned out to be completely not worth thinking over it for years. |
Apparently
yesterday's match was hard? I'm suddenly 6 points away from the
leaderboard again. I can't see them changing too much tomorrow either,
since the final match is probably a given. Also: Score To Beat 2 Devin_Morgan 43 --- Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords. With what? ROT-13? -CJayC |
creativename posted... Fayt_Esteed posted...Now that you mention it, I'm surprised he hasn't been hit with the same decline that, say, the CT crew's been suffering. That's ridiculous. You can't take it simply as "a weakened Cloud"--you have to take anti-votes into account. There is no way to spin Frog's Round 1 performance into something good. Board 8 loves nothing more than spinning results to look "good for Crono", and I eagerly await Crono's next Round 1 loss in 1v1s--hopefully this time they'll give him a known entity so that there's no denying that Crono lost to a weakling. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. Congratulations to Guru champion, the mighty raytan. |
...man, he hasn't lost a single update despite europe. right now he's looking to score pretty damn similarly to Snake. --- "Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel. |
I'm also quite nervous about Snake/Samus, though a match between the two was always going to be close. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 179/324 Today's Pick: Link |
Yes,
he hasn't lost an update to heavily leeched Mewtwo. Without Pikachu in
that poll, he would have lost numerous updates to Mewtwo. |
That is true. There are 2 Pokemon there so of course votes are split. Still Mewtwo the strongest Pokemon... I can't believe it. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
In the early days that's what the board believed, that's why we got Mewtwo first in the NRT. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 179/324 Today's Pick: Link |
creativename posted... Fayt_Esteed posted...I still think it's more the result of low votals than anything else. I can't bring myself to NOT consider Crono the weak link of the Noble Nine. Yes. He has done bugger all to convince me otherwise. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
_SecretSquirrel posted... Anyone want to take Geno > Duke Nukem? Dang it, not a battle of mostly irrelevant dudes... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
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