Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1173

#101 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/13/2013 7:03:04 PM | message detail
Maybe Mega Man doesn't look as good here because Samus is taking away his SSB trailer support like she did to Snake. >_>
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#102 | ZFS | Posted 9/13/2013 7:06:39 PM | message detail | (edited)
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Maybe Mega Man doesn't look as good here because Samus is taking away his SSB trailer support like she did to Snake. >_>


I had mentioned this before the match started! I dunno, that would also make Charizard look better and we can't really have that tbqh
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#103 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/13/2013 7:08:55 PM | message detail
You'd think if Mega Man is susceptible to getting his trailer support sapped by Samus, it could be sapped by Charizard. That would make Charizard look ridiculously pitiful, though.
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#104 | ZFS | Posted 9/13/2013 7:11:04 PM | message detail
Isn't that what we all want
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#105 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/13/2013 7:15:19 PM | message detail
Also this is about what you'd expect a boosted Mega Man to score on a constant Samus. The oddity in Samus being constant isn't so much Mega Man, who looks fine if she's stable... it's Tifa.

Just like last time, obviously.
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#106 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/13/2013 7:16:02 PM | message detail
He could but he probably doesn't, or at least not by very much. If Pokemon could sap SSB support, they would actually show some more overlap with other SSB characters. Also, as long as Charizard takes less than Samus does it works out to Charizard looking better.
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#107 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/13/2013 7:18:12 PM | message detail
Snake losing Brawl support to Nintendo was not a thing, though! Samus/Sonic 2004 and Snake/Sonic 2006 predicted Snake/Samus 2006 pretty well!
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#108 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/13/2013 7:19:05 PM | message detail
Bonus Match III: (11) Mewtwo vs. (6) Pikachu vs. (1) Mega Man

Previous Round

Draven – 45.07%
Mewtwo – 31.88%
Sephiroth – 23.06%

Solid Snake – 51.12%
Pikachu – 25.60%
Squirtle – 23.29%

Samus Aran
Mega Man
Pokemon Trainer Red

Analysis

The major downside to Charizard losing in the third round is that instead of having 3 Pokemon in the bonus poll you have two and Mega Man. Like Solid Snake did a couple of days ago Mega Man is going to benefit from LFF and easily take first. While it is great to see one of my favourite series perform well there is something as too much of a good thing and it is a big reason why none of the Pokemon reached the final.

Pikachu was able to defeat Squirtle in a close match. Being a mascot means he gets the support of casual Pokemon fans. However, Mewtwo is an even bigger fan favourite than Squirtle so just being a mascot may not be enough. However, just because you are a fan favourite does not make you stronger. Also once you take LFF into account Pikachu’s performance against Solid Snake was quite good, it almost makes their 2010 match look legit.

Mewtwo has had reason to be stronger though. He had no issue defeating Sephiroth last round though it is likely he benefitted from rallies and people in general wanting to defeat Draven. Still it is hard to say that Mewtwo has not been the most impressive Pokemon in the contest as he has impressed in every match that he appeared in so far.

With that said I am still siding with Pikachu for second. I still stand by that Pikachu is the strongest character in the series and should he win this it will go a long way proving that is the case as only Charizard and maybe Blastoise would have a chance at winning. I do not see Mega Man winning by as much as Solid Snake did, but I expect him to look impressive.

charmander6000’s Fake Bracket: Mega Man > Pikachu and Mewtwo

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man – 45.57%, Pikachu – 28.45%, Mewtwo – 25.98%
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#109 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/13/2013 7:19:31 PM | message detail
Oh I don't buy it, but I entertain theories I don't necessarily believe all the time. It's how I see the patterns in my own serial wrongness. <_<
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#110 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/13/2013 7:30:11 PM | message detail
Although it is worth mentioning that next round would have been a superb litmus test with a neutral entity there (replacing Draven's pollution with, like... Chester). Snake easily dispatching Samus would imply that Samus actually did drop, which would make the Tifa match make a lot more sense and imply that Mega Man's SSB4 boost was a lot more tame. Samus doing the same to Snake would draw the conclusions that Samus/Tifa is just a bad matchup for Samus (or hey, maybe Tifa's on Cloud's level) and make the SSB4 boost look a lot more amplified.

tl;dr Draven ruins everything.
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#111 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/13/2013 7:33:32 PM | message detail
2010 xstats have Snake over Samus through Cloud. Samus won't have to have dropped much for Snake to pull it out, especially if he gets any form of bandwagon or MGSV boost.
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#112 | XenoDeity | Posted 9/13/2013 7:58:19 PM | message detail
MM won his last round because he has my blessings. This time, Samus gets my full support and blessings. She is by far the higher quality sci fi character this round.
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#113 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/13/2013 8:37:13 PM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
So Pokemon is going to LFF itself again for our next bonus match. That's really disappointing. I'd like to see one of Mewtwo or Pikachu face Mega Man head on.


It's fine; Mega Man fans dropped Zero to allow Mega Man the win, so Pokéfans will return the favor. Pikachu's proven multiple times in the anime that he knows how to throw a match when the situation calls for it (usually because Ash and crew are trying to help some lame newbie's lame Pokémon gain some confidence), and he'll fold to give Mewtwo the opportunity to win.

Lopen posted...
Mega Man vs Pikachu vs Mewtwo is our bonus match? Why?


So that Charizard can be avenged.

LeonhartFour posted...
Lopen posted...
Mega Man vs Pikachu vs Mewtwo is our bonus match? Why?


RallyFAQs!

If only you people hadn't rallied for Mega Man, we could've had the Mewtwo/Pikachu/Charizard match everyone was clamoring for!


You mean Mewtwo/Pikachu/Samus! Although I'm not sure Samus has quite enough "collapse against Nintendo" to finish last in that one; might actually win it because Pokéfans wouldn't harbor any ill will and therefore Pikachu wouldn't fold as much.

SmartvoterFAQs is a thing; we saw it in the Division 9 final. Zero's never looked that bad against Mega before, and all signs seemed to point to him closing the gap, not widening it.
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#114 | creativename | Posted 9/13/2013 8:57:04 PM | message detail
My god, these picmisths are still trying to sabotage. Mega Boy in 4 and Constipated Man in 3.

If this was a debatable match and not a gimme bonus poll this would be trouble. No doubt voters seeing pic 3 would vote for the Pokemanz at an abnormal rate.
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#115 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/13/2013 8:57:28 PM | message detail
i see no rally topic on reddit yet, am i missing it?
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#116 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/13/2013 8:57:45 PM | message detail
Maybe Mega Man will get joke votes from that pic
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Points: 179/297 Today's Pick: Mario
#117 | xp1337 | Posted 9/13/2013 8:58:09 PM | message detail
A rally for Mega Man v Pokemon?

...well i sure wouldn't be surprised.
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#118 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/13/2013 8:58:12 PM | message detail
Why would reddit rally?
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Points: 179/297 Today's Pick: Mario
#119 | xp1337 | Posted 9/13/2013 8:59:09 PM | message detail
Also, I'll go for Mewtwo > Pikachu this time.

If Mewtwo loses though, better than Squirtle.
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#120 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/13/2013 9:00:15 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Mewtwo
66.67%
4 Votes
Your Pick

Pikachu
33.33%
2 Votes

Mega Man
0%
0 Votes
Total Votes: 6
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#121 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/13/2013 9:00:29 PM | message detail
PokeFAQs


Mewtwo
35.71%
5 Votes

Pikachu
35.71%
5 Votes

Mega Man
28.57%
4 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 179/324 Today's Pick: Link
#122 | raytan7585 | Posted 9/13/2013 9:00:31 PM | message detail
Mewtwo
62.5%
5 Votes

Pikachu
37.5%
3 Votes
Your Pick

Mega Man
0%
0 Votes

Total Votes: 8
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#123 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/13/2013 9:00:56 PM | message detail
Not a bad start for Mega Man at all, nice.
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#124 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/13/2013 9:01:09 PM | message detail
Mewtwo
23.53%
16 Votes
Vote Mewtwo!


Pikachu
26.47%
18 Votes
Vote Pikachu!


Mega Man
50%
34 Votes
Vote Mega Man!
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#125 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/13/2013 9:01:26 PM | message detail
Mewtwo with a great start
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#126 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/13/2013 9:01:28 PM | message detail
Not a bad start for Mewtwo.
#127 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/13/2013 9:01:52 PM | message detail
No site alert for this match.
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#128 | JJH777 | Posted 9/13/2013 9:02:30 PM | message detail
If Mega Man stays anywhere near this current % Snake should be doomed. He probably won't though
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#129 | Ex-Kefiroth | Posted 9/13/2013 9:03:33 PM | message detail
thought we were getting the finals today. The timer for the finals match even stated it started today.
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#130 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/13/2013 9:03:49 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
tl;dr Draven ruins everything.


obvious/10
#131 | spooky96 | Posted 9/13/2013 9:03:54 PM | message detail
Yay Devin doin' real good in Expert.
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#132 | raytan7585 | Posted 9/13/2013 9:04:20 PM | message detail
Megaman used MEGABUSTAH!!
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#133 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/13/2013 9:04:52 PM | message detail
Vote totals are much lower than the previous 2 matches that had site alerts. Even the Snake match was doing better than this.
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#134 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/13/2013 9:06:51 PM | message detail
MM's percentage should be helped out with not having a competitive match between the two Pokemon like last time - geez, Mewtwo's really taking it to Pika right now. Still, if he maintains around here things would look grim indeed for Snake all things considering.
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#135 | creativename | Posted 9/13/2013 9:07:43 PM | message detail
I was going to make a post saying I expected Mewtwo to be significantly stronger than Squirtle and thus I would predict him to beat Pikachu...but I didn't even realize the match started.

Bah. Looks I was right but can't claim credit now! Dumb Pokemanz ruin everything.
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#136 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/13/2013 9:09:03 PM | message detail
Come on, time to tank.
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#137 | startme_up | Posted 9/13/2013 9:09:36 PM | message detail
Draven > Snake > Samus or Draven > Samus > Snake for the finals?
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#138 | creativename | Posted 9/13/2013 9:09:51 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Yay Devin doin' real good in Expert.

Holy f***. I thought he had just stopped predicting after, like, round 1!
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#139 | JJH777 | Posted 9/13/2013 9:09:58 PM | message detail
Samus is going to stomp Snake
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#140 | creativename | Posted 9/13/2013 9:10:33 PM | message detail
startme_up posted...
Draven > Snake > Samus or Draven > Samus > Snake for the finals?

Who's better in Europe, Snake or Samus?
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#141 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/13/2013 9:11:08 PM | message detail
Mewtwo looking real good. I guess I did underestimate him.
#142 | creativename | Posted 9/13/2013 9:11:21 PM | message detail
Yeah Mewtwo has clearly entered god-mode this contest. Making the rat look pathetic now.
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#143 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/13/2013 9:11:23 PM | message detail
Oh god damnit I'd be tied for 19th in expert if I hadn't forgotten to make a pick for the last Draven match...

Also jeeze Devin's below 100 now
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#144 | spooky96 | Posted 9/13/2013 9:11:43 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
spooky96 posted...
Yay Devin doin' real good in Expert.

Holy f***. I thought he had just stopped predicting after, like, round 1!


Well yeah, he did stop after round 1, but I wanted to say something like this "He predicts 1 match out of so many and even that one he predicts it wrong."
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#145 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/13/2013 9:12:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, not sure what to make of it since Mewtwo is obviously SFFing Pikachu here.

Though if Megaman can keep that ~50% it's hard to say Snake looked good in his match
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#146 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/13/2013 9:12:49 PM | message detail
Mega Man is obviously going to tank overnight, but for some ten minute stats...!

Assuming Pikachu+Squirtle = Mewtwo+Pikachu, Snake gets 50.32% on Mega Man and 46.11% on Samus.
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#147 | raytan7585 | Posted 9/13/2013 9:12:50 PM | message detail
JJH777 posted...
Samus is going to stomp Snake


You mean DRAAAAAVEN gonna stomp both.
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#148 | Rymari | Posted 9/13/2013 9:13:00 PM | message detail
Pobre

Pobre

Crono
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#149 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/13/2013 9:13:09 PM | message detail
...I am in 51st place in the Expert Challenge.

...If everybody hiveminds on the final match I will have an Extha-class breakdown.
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#150 | cyko | Posted 9/13/2013 9:13:09 PM | message detail
What a boring, predictable bonus match!
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