Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1171

#251 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/12/2013 6:05:37 PM | message detail
creativename posted...

I'd hazard to say everyone is weaker now than in 2K3! Except Link and Snake. And Link only because of Draven, otherwise he sucked too.


Pokemon are MUCH stronger :P
#252 | ZFS | Posted 9/12/2013 6:07:25 PM | message detail
What are people expecting out of this next match? I feel like everyone is favoring Mega Man, but I think Samus can take this.
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#253 | xp1337 | Posted 9/12/2013 6:08:09 PM | message detail
I still think Samus has it, but anyone could win that match and I wouldn't be all that surprised.
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#254 | creativename | Posted 9/12/2013 6:09:57 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
What are people expecting out of this next match? I feel like everyone is favoring Mega Man, but I think Samus can take this.

Samus looks to be the Oracle favorite, looks like she's favored by a couple points. The large majority seem to be picking her but not by much.

Looks like the hivemind thinks Mega Man has a good shot, but nobody wants to risk actually picking him.
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#255 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/12/2013 6:11:27 PM | message detail
I have to hope the hivemind is truly hivemindish if I want to reach the leaderboard assuming the upset happens.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 155/330 Today's Pick: Solid Snake
#256 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/12/2013 6:11:58 PM | message detail
Today's match will just barely reach 50000 votes. I know this match is being hurt by the LFF, but this match probably gets at least 46000 votes without the site alert. So it seems like the site alert is giving us less than 5000 extra votes.
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#257 | X195 | Posted 9/12/2013 6:15:25 PM | message detail
You guys are aware...

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb9/5264-07.jpg

... that is not actually Red, right?
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#258 | creativename | Posted 9/12/2013 6:17:56 PM | message detail
X195 posted...
You guys are aware...



... that is not actually Red, right?

Heh. And that's the only pic I think is half decent too.
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#259 | swordz9 | Posted 9/12/2013 6:18:56 PM | message detail
I'm feeling Red will win. He just looked "unimpressive" in the previous round since he didn't need any rallying or anything to beat his opponents. Better hope you don't see Red pull a Mewtwo otherwise Samus and Mega Man don't stand a chance.
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#260 | wishiwasdead | Posted 9/12/2013 6:21:49 PM | message detail
Damn, I miss the only day when I was in the leaderboard. First time as well.
Hopefully many people fell for having Cloud in the final instead of Snake.
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#261 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/12/2013 6:24:33 PM | message detail
X195 posted...
You guys are aware...

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb9/5264-07.jpg

... that is not actually Red, right?


what is that Samus pic
#262 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/12/2013 6:46:37 PM | message detail | (edited)
1337gamerpr0 posted...
X195 posted...
You guys are aware...

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb9/5264-07.jpg

... that is not actually Red, right?


what is that Samus pic
That's Super Metroid Samus in the Varia Suit firing a Super Missile upwards. Didn't recognize the pose immediately so I figured it was Zero Mission Samus instead but looked up a sprite sheet and nope, Super Metroid.
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#263 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/12/2013 6:58:00 PM | message detail
I'm still staying Samus>Megaman>Red
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#264 | pjbasis | Posted 9/12/2013 7:00:02 PM | message detail
#265 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/12/2013 7:19:49 PM | message detail
Match CXX: (1) Samus Aran vs. (4) Pokemon Trainer Red vs. (1) Mega Man

Previous Round

Samus Aran – 41.70%
Tifa Lockheart – 33.81%
L-Block – 24.49%

Pokemon Trainer Red – 39.10%
Vivi – 33.84%
Squall Leonhart – 27.05%

Mega Man – 40.21%
Charizard – 40.17%
Zero – 19.62%

Analysis

I am not sure why so many people are giving Red a decent chance to win this match. I guess with Pokemon you have to be careful, but Red has yet to show he is as strong as the top Pokemon characters. Add in the fact that Mega Man is coming off of a win over Charizard with Zero in the poll and I do not see Red pulling this off. The only way he could manage the upset is either a massive rally or Pokemon scoring 40% on everything is actually a thing.

The fight for first has become interesting, Samus was thought to be stronger than Mega Man in a 1v1 situation pre-contest, but last round has given us a pause. With Final Fantasy VII flopping everywhere Samus was unable to capitalize on that and actually performed worse than what is expected in the 2010 stats. Tifa was able to over perform in 2006, but most of us blame that on the picture and people not wanting the obvious winner like Sephiroth did in the villains contest. It could be possible that something weird happens when those two meet.

Mega Man on the other hand has looked great all contest, he was able to defeat Charizard with Zero in the poll, though that was helped with Zero uncharacteristically folding and getting a bit of a rally. Base off of what I have seen this contest I feel confident to say that Mega Man has made the jump to join the other top noble nine characters. The problem is that jump is likely due to Super Smash Bros. so what will happen when he faces two characters that are playable characters.

I would like to imagine that people voting for Mega Man are actual Mega Man fans that are reminded that they liked Mega Man. It is a bit weird that just appearing in video can give so much strength, especially once you go up against the top characters and even then you would think a lot of that support would disappear when he went up against Charizard. I am going to go with Mega Man, but mostly because I did not like Samus’ performance against Tifa.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mario > Mega Man and Samus

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man – 38.33%, Samus – 35.76%, Pokemon Trainer Red – 25.91%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 155/330 Today's Pick: Solid Snake
#266 | Surskit | Posted 9/12/2013 7:21:50 PM | message detail
That isn't just "a video" Mega Man showed up in. It was the video.
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#267 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2013 7:22:23 PM | message detail
Yeah Samus hasn't looked as good as Mega Man, but there's a once bitten, twice shy aura about her because of how bad she looked in 2k6 and still ended up winning. And she's also got that Link-lite aura against anything that isn't Link/Mario.

...but she really has not looked as good as Mega Man this year. She'll have to assert the hierarchy tonight.
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#268 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/12/2013 7:42:20 PM | message detail
Potential Ultimate Losers:
CATS
Kat
Bomberman
Adol Christin
Lenneth Valkyrie

Who will it be? Vote!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67229128
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#269 | ZFS | Posted 9/12/2013 7:45:30 PM | message detail
Dabrikishaw15 posted...
I'm still staying Samus>Megaman>Red


Think so as well.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#270 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/12/2013 7:46:32 PM | message detail
I honestly don't see how Mega Man can lose.
#271 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2013 7:50:37 PM | message detail
Considering Mega Man hasn't been stronger than Samus since 2002, him losing is not exactly the hardest thing in the world to buy.
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#272 | ZFS | Posted 9/12/2013 7:52:36 PM | message detail
Samus isn't a pushover! She's often been near the top of the NN for as long as the contests have been running. MM is enjoying a Smash boost right now, but well, Snake had a trailer going for him once upon a time! MM probably has a bandwagon going for him, though.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#273 | pjbasis | Posted 9/12/2013 7:54:49 PM | message detail
And then we're all going to see that Mega Man and Zero don't overlap all that much anyway!
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#274 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/12/2013 7:54:50 PM | message detail
you.... have no faith in your boy, HM? i'm disappointed. you're supposed to be one of the true believers.
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#275 | ZFS | Posted 9/12/2013 7:56:30 PM | message detail
I think either could win, wouldn't surprise me. Well, if Red won that would surprising.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#276 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2013 7:56:38 PM | message detail
Samus was probably last in 2k2 on pure strength (Link/Mario SFF was definitely a thing and her photo finish against Sonic had all the hallmarks of rally fuel). She's been in the upper tiers since Metroid Prime, though.
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#277 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/12/2013 7:58:15 PM | message detail
It seems like Samus is the naturally stronger character but Mega Man has everything pointing in his favor in this contest (including people rooting for him). It should be really close, but I don't want to say that Samus will definitely lose just because she "looked weak" in the rest of this contest. I wouldn't be surprised if anyone except Red won this one.
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#278 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/12/2013 8:02:31 PM | message detail
Solid Snake
51.19%
25252 Votes
Your Pick

Squirtle
23.25%
11469 Votes

Pikachu
25.57%
12612 Votes
Total Votes: 49333

Love Snake's vote count.
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#279 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 9/12/2013 8:06:39 PM | message detail
X195 posted...
You guys are aware...

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb9/5264-07.jpg

... that is not actually Red, right?


Holy s*** you guys, that is a huge mistake!
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FFIXOwner Bracket: 169/270
Expert: 810 (lol?)
#280 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/12/2013 8:15:19 PM | message detail
I just see Mega Man's momentum as too much to overcome at this point.
#281 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/12/2013 8:15:37 PM | message detail | (edited)
From: charmander6000 | #250
And I'd really love to know the pic factor for pic 1...good chance that one would have some weird results as compared to the others. I mean WTF is that.

If there is an effect it would hurt Samus, Mega Man is one of the most well-known characters in gaming and Red literally has Pokemon in his name.


Mega Man would probably get last based on that pic alone... It's just a gear; nothing that really represents him in a way that's been shown before. Pokeballs are known by everyone and the screw attack thingy is in every Metroid logo.
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Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
#282 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 9/12/2013 8:17:39 PM | message detail
#4 is actually clever and #5 is fine.

The rest are atrocious.
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FFIXOwner Bracket: 169/270
Expert: 810 (lol?)
#283 | Qwaar | Posted 9/12/2013 8:40:06 PM | message detail | (edited)
With such a lead, It's beginning to look surprising so many people thought Squirtle would get second.
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#284 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/12/2013 8:38:37 PM | message detail
Pikachu was the heavy favourite in the oracle, many people even thought he would SFF Squirtle.
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Points: 155/330 Today's Pick: Solid Snake
#285 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2013 8:40:16 PM | message detail
Squirtle being ahead at all for a time looking at the results now is actually the most surprising thing of all. Turtle damn near had joke trends today.
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#286 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/12/2013 8:49:48 PM | message detail
I would be correct in assuming that Squirtle would hold up better 1-on-1, right?
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#287 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/12/2013 8:52:57 PM | message detail
Snake? Yes.

Pikachu, not sure, neutral fans would just go with the mascot. I feel Pokemon anti-votes is as good as dead now.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 179/297 Today's Pick: Mario
#288 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/12/2013 8:54:02 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Snake? Yes.

Pikachu, not sure, neutral fans would just go with the mascot. I feel Pokemon anti-votes is as good as dead now.


I was thinking relative to Pikachu.
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#289 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/12/2013 8:54:50 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Squirtle being ahead at all for a time looking at the results now is actually the most surprising thing of all. Turtle damn near had joke trends today.


Squirtle might have been bandwagoned at the start of the match and there were probably rallies as well, which would cause Squirtle to lose percentage for most of this match.
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#290 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/12/2013 8:54:54 PM | message detail
With Samus and Mega Man having such terrible European votes, Red may actually win in a bunch of countries. If he's close enough he may even cut.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 179/297 Today's Pick: Mario
#291 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/12/2013 8:55:44 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
With Samus and Mega Man having such terrible European votes, Red may actually win in a bunch of countries. If he's close enough he may even cut.


Red's gonna win Wyoming....!
#292 | spooky96 | Posted 9/12/2013 8:56:06 PM | message detail
Random question, but Snake scoring 51% would probably mean Pikachu vs Snake in a 1v1 match would probably a 48-52 or 47-53 match, right?
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#293 | Qwaar | Posted 9/12/2013 8:56:54 PM | message detail
I expect Mega Man to take the early lead, but the EU day vote will punish him severely.
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#294 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2013 8:57:47 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Random question, but Snake scoring 51% would probably mean Pikachu vs Snake in a 1v1 match would probably a 48-52 or 47-53 match, right?


Not even close. Most extreme overlap postulating makes it 56/44 Snake. Probably wins by more, though rallies would temper it.
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#295 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/12/2013 8:57:59 PM | message detail
Random question, but Snake scoring 51% would probably mean Pikachu vs Snake in a 1v1 match would probably a 48-52 or 47-53 match, right?

An 80/20 split for Pikachu/Snake would give Snake 55.79%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 179/297 Today's Pick: Mario
#296 | Qwaar | Posted 9/12/2013 8:58:41 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
With Samus and Mega Man having such terrible European votes, Red may actually win in a bunch of countries. If he's close enough he may even cut.


Samus has a better day vote than Mega Man I feel.
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#297 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 9/12/2013 8:59:00 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Random question, but Snake scoring 51% would probably mean Pikachu vs Snake in a 1v1 match would probably a 48-52 or 47-53 match, right?


Hard to say for sure but i think the overlapping between Squirtle and Pikachu is probably 70-80%(Definitely no more than that)

I think Snake will score 57-59% against Pikachu 1vs1.
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#298 | pjbasis | Posted 9/12/2013 8:59:18 PM | message detail
#299 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/12/2013 8:59:55 PM | message detail
Here we go...
#300 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/12/2013 9:00:19 PM | message detail
*votes*

MEGA MAN
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.