Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1171

#1 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 10:01:45 PM | message detail
Let it be proclaimed throughout the land, repeated from person to person. First it will be rumor, then history, and finally undisputed FACT:

Snake Always Wins.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:04:23 PM | message detail
#3 | wedontgetfooledagain | Posted 9/11/2013 10:07:05 PM | message detail
Damn, we missed a contest pic opportunity of a lifetime right here.

I know it's misleading, but for each character popping out of a pokeball, Snake should have been EKANS.....
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#4 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/11/2013 10:13:09 PM | message detail
...Except it still has the Nintendo fanbase behind it.

Nintendo + Not Nintendo > Nintendo.
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#5 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/11/2013 10:13:18 PM | message detail
Snake's head on an Ekans body
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#6 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:13:34 PM | message detail
MGS always wins

Remember when MGS3 won GotD

That was so awesome
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#7 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 10:13:59 PM | message detail
We would have probably had Ekans in this match but the picsmiths seem too demoralized now. Some of these are good but some seem phoned in (#6 what).
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#8 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 10:14:09 PM | message detail
squirtle power hour over guys

it's pikachu time
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#9 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/11/2013 10:14:28 PM | message detail
Tsunami, I'm not sure what you're even arguing.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#10 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:15:50 PM | message detail
Big Boss the true plucky underdog of these contests

Remember when he CQC Slammed a Colossus

Pepperidge Farms remembers

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/gotd/gotd-119-1.jpg
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#11 | pjbasis | Posted 9/11/2013 10:16:37 PM | message detail
MGS2 was robbed a second strongest title victory

MGS3 was clearly just bandwagoned the win
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#12 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/11/2013 10:16:59 PM | message detail
Marth is projected to beat Big Boss
Smash characters sucking, say what?
#13 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:17:01 PM | message detail
Yeah because that's how bandwagons work

The underdog wins and the stronger game gets a bandwagon
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#14 | pjbasis | Posted 9/11/2013 10:17:33 PM | message detail
#15 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 10:17:54 PM | message detail
don't listen to red sox's lies

Snake is every bit the plucky underdog Pokemon is
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#16 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:17:57 PM | message detail
Although I still feel kinda cheated we didn't even get one MGS vs. MGS matchup even though the entire division was rigged for it!

darn you SotC
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#17 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/11/2013 10:19:26 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
don't listen to red sox's lies

Snake is every bit the plucky underdog Pokemon is


there can only be one plucky underdog, and it isn't the Noble Nine member :P
#18 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:20:39 PM | message detail
People wanted Snake booted out of the Noble Nine at one point!

And now he's arguably the second strongest of them all!

There may be a limit to his pluckiness since he probably can't beat Link, but he should still be commended!
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#19 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 10:21:03 PM | message detail
Crono got to be a plucky underdog for years I see no problem with this

heck he's recently got that renewed
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#20 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/11/2013 10:21:11 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Although I still feel kinda cheated we didn't even get one MGS vs. MGS matchup even though the entire division was rigged for it!

darn you SotC


At some point I really think I should begin to feel guilty about that. But man it felt so good.
#21 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:24:12 PM | message detail
I remember I literally went through a streak on the Expert Challenge in GotD where I got every match right in between getting MGS2/SotC and MGS4/SotC wrong

darn you SotC
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#22 | kurtfisto | Posted 9/11/2013 10:25:03 PM | message detail
SotC game of the ever
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#23 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/11/2013 10:29:33 PM | message detail
Leon, I think you mean the Battle Challenge instead. Battle Challenge is much different than the Expert Challenge.
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#24 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:30:01 PM | message detail
#25 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 10:33:38 PM | message detail | (edited)
Battle Challenge was fantastic.

If nothing else, Bacon has been great at making alternatives to brackets. Battle Challenge and Expert Challenge have probably been my favorite additions to contests in a while.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#26 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:31:12 PM | message detail
Snake currently projected to get 66% on Cloud and 69.25% on Crono

HE ALWAYS WINS
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#27 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:32:13 PM | message detail
Oh wow, I just realized we have a non-negligible chance of Kefka > Zack > Cloud in the stats

Zack > Cloud is pretty unlikely, but the chances of Kefka > Cloud look pretty good!
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#28 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/11/2013 10:32:44 PM | message detail
I remember that night. It was amazing. I called all of my friends with ten minutes to go, who apparently called all of their friends. One of them apparently (or so he tells me) went to their college's library and convinced everyone on a computer at that moment to vote.

I was the only one on the battle leaderboard without a 0 by their name. It was absolutely glorious.

Then I blew it a few days later for overestimating the importance of a dumb GOTY poll.
#29 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 10:32:49 PM | message detail
this is the most Pyrrhic Victory ever dammit pokeymanz
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#30 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 9/11/2013 10:34:30 PM | message detail
We-love-you!
Pi-ka-chu!
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FFIXOwner Bracket: 169/270
Expert: 810 (lol?)
#31 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:34:52 PM | message detail
#32 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 10:34:54 PM | message detail
also Pikachu on the warpath en route to a comeback to ruin Snake's percentage and my stupid prediction on this match being over

I hate you guys
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#33 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/11/2013 10:38:11 PM | message detail
Previous thread talked a little about where Samus's support comes from. Honestly, Samus being as strong as she is on this site (indirectly close to if not stronger than Mario!?) has never made much sense to me.

I like Samus so I can't complain, but it vexes me so. Especially since she was already so strong in 2002 that Metroid Prime didn't seem to have boosted her that much, and Super Metroid is her only other game that has any strength at all.

So, uh...Why is Samus so strong on gamefaqs?
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#34 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:38:48 PM | message detail
Smash Bros.

Everyone loves the charge shot
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#35 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 10:39:35 PM | message detail
Smash?

samus the ultimate beneficiary of smash. brought her right into the noble nine.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#36 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/11/2013 10:41:26 PM | message detail
Pikachu! I choose you! Lower the tyrant's percentage! You know, the tyrant who always wins.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#37 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 10:41:39 PM | message detail
Samus is a combination of Dante-style design, except her series is a decent bit stronger (Dante's series is shockingly weak for his level of strength, I can't imagine how strong he'd be with a series people cared about) and Smash. That's about it.
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#38 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:50:12 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Smash?

samus the ultimate beneficiary of smash. brought her right into the noble nine.


Nah, I'd say Kirby is the ultimate beneficiary of Smash. He'd be lucky to be a low midcarder without it.
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#39 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 9/11/2013 10:50:28 PM | message detail
Hey guys, remember to vote and post in my poll topic about Mega Man in the finals.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67221881
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FFIXOwner Bracket: 169/270
Expert: 810 (lol?)
#40 | pjbasis | Posted 9/11/2013 10:52:20 PM | message detail
It's true, I bought Kirby 64 because I loved Kirby in Smash bros.
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#41 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 9/11/2013 10:52:48 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
It's true, I bought Kirby 64 because I loved Kirby in Smash bros.

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#42 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/11/2013 10:53:35 PM | message detail
Samus has held a special status as Nintendo's "#3 legend" since the early 90s. That's the sort of intangible that a character like Dante dreams of having and might contribute just as much to her strength as anything else. Samus's strongest game (probably Super Metroid, though Prime likely doesn't lag far behind) is only around Super Mario Kart's level. Her games are weak but her status is very established. I think she'd be pretty damn strong even without Smash. She'd be no midcarder, that's for sure.
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#43 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 10:54:19 PM | message detail
I'd take Prime to beat Super Metroid easily.

Easily.
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#44 | creativename | Posted 9/11/2013 10:54:57 PM | message detail
What's this nonsense about Pokemon not being a broad fanbase? Pokemon being a broad fanbase is why I kept telling people Pikachu>Sora was possible in the first place! This whole site is Poke-crazy.

Zelda is #1, Pokemon is #2. The only competition for #2 it even has is SMB.

And Snake is being very impressive here. He could very well have won a Link/Samus/Snake final pre-Draven boosting Link to unmatched levels.
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#45 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/11/2013 10:58:24 PM | message detail
SMB would crush Pokemon, both in a poll and in a contest for fanbase broadness. Pokemon is broader than any Square-based fanbase, but that's not saying too much.

Agreed that Snake has a great chance against pre-Draven Link with Mario there. Very outside shot at that version of Link 1v1.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#46 | creativename | Posted 9/11/2013 10:59:42 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Battle Challenge was fantastic.

If nothing else, Bacon has been great at making alternatives to brackets. Battle Challenge and Expert Challenge have probably been my favorite additions to contests in a while.

Battle was meh...Expert is really good though.

Only problem is the scoring system. Literally getting a match as wrong as possible - totally backwards - is better than getting a match partially correct.

Other than that though Expert has been good.
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#47 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/11/2013 11:01:18 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
xp1337 posted...
Smash?

samus the ultimate beneficiary of smash. brought her right into the noble nine.


Nah, I'd say Kirby is the ultimate beneficiary of Smash. He'd be lucky to be a low midcarder without it.


Seeing how Kirby Super Star did in 2009... I'd say that's probably true.
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#48 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 11:03:13 PM | message detail
Well, we've never gotten a fair read on Kirby games or the Kirby series without some sort of SFF being involved, but both of those results weren't promising, and its GOTY results have never been good either.
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#49 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 11:03:17 PM | message detail
I really don't want to see another series contest because the ignominy of having Final Fantasy and Super Mario Bros. losing to Pokemon would just buttdestroy me.
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#50 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2013 11:04:45 PM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
I really don't want to see another series contest because the ignominy of having Final Fantasy and Super Mario Bros. losing to Pokemon would just buttdestroy me.


We'd just have to pic sabotage it against Super Smash Bros. by throwing in sprite pics of Link, Samus, and Mario from their most popular games against the worst Pokemon.
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