Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1170

#101 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:21:57 PM | message detail
SBAllen has confirmed it: Reddit votes split for Draven over Link at a 60/40 ratio. 40% backfire rate, a little better even than the 65/35 I was speculating about earlier.

I am really happy to see that. That proves Draven is mortal, Link wins a 1v1 easily, Snake probably wins a 1v1, and Draven probably wasn't being stuffed to any major degree.
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#102 | ZFS | Posted 9/11/2013 3:22:16 PM | message detail
HG/SS shouldn't be eligible, anyway. Remakes in general don't really belong in that type of contest.
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#103 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 3:23:20 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
SBAllen has confirmed it: Reddit votes split for Draven over Link at a 60/40 ratio. 40% backfire rate, a little better even than the 65/35 I was speculating about earlier.

I am really happy to see that. That proves Draven is mortal, Link wins a 1v1 easily, Snake probably wins a 1v1, and Draven probably wasn't being stuffed to any major degree.


That's outside votes, not exclusively reddit votes. Link was being significantly rallied in that match as well. I still emphatically reject the idea that the backfire rate was that high for the reddit rallies.
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#104 | JJH777 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:23:36 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
SBAllen has confirmed it: Reddit votes split for Draven over Link at a 60/40 ratio. 40% backfire rate, a little better even than the 65/35 I was speculating about earlier.

I am really happy to see that. That proves Draven is mortal, Link wins a 1v1 easily, Snake probably wins a 1v1, and Draven probably wasn't being stuffed to any major degree.


Where did he confirm that?
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#105 | ZFS | Posted 9/11/2013 3:25:34 PM | message detail
In his topic: "The 70,000 difference in votes from Link/Shepard/Draven to Sonic/Mewtwo/Bowser is 99% accountable to Reddit users, according to Google Analytics and our own internal tracking. New voters (most of whom were Reddit users, although we don't track where someone visited from to how they vote) voted 3:2 for Draven over Link. They did not 100% for Draven, as many seem to assume."
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#106 | Mewtwo59 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:27:14 PM | message detail
Do people really think newer Pokemon would do that well? Did we all forget about how much N sucked? And I doubt any 5th gen Pokemon would do much better in that spot. Newer Pokemon is weak.
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#107 | Averia | Posted 9/11/2013 3:27:29 PM | message detail
I might be wrong, but I don't think Snake will get such a generous spill over.
Legend of Zelda seems a lot more worldwide known than MGS
#108 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:27:30 PM | message detail
I'm sorry, yes it is outside votes. Like 90% of outside votes are from reddit though, so it would still be around 65/35. I'm still very happy to hear that confirmed.
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#109 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 3:27:51 PM | message detail
Like, 'most of whom were Reddit users' could conceivably range from 51%~ to 90%+. That data isn't really conclusive.
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#110 | FFDragon | Posted 9/11/2013 3:28:33 PM | message detail
At least Bacon admitted that one of his goals for this contest was to get Link to lose.
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#111 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 3:29:30 PM | message detail
Averia posted...
I might be wrong, but I don't think Snake will get such a generous spill over.
Legend of Zelda seems a lot more worldwide known than MGS


Link is actually much weaker worldwide than he is in the USA, where he dominates. Snake is much more than MGS, anyway.
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#112 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/11/2013 3:29:42 PM | message detail
Mewtwo59 posted...
Do people really think newer Pokemon would do that well? Did we all forget about how much N sucked? And I doubt any 5th gen Pokemon would do much better in that spot. Newer Pokemon is weak.


Nobody likes N, though. Even I was tempted to anti-vote him, despite my Pokemon love. The games themselves would do much better, as they are still among the most popular games on the site.
#113 | ZFS | Posted 9/11/2013 3:33:38 PM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
At least Bacon admitted that one of his goals for this contest was to get Link to lose.


Still don't understand this. Well, I do in the sense that Link is viewed as untouchable, and for the most part that's true, but if that's his viewpoint, I don't know why he doesn't just remove him from the bracket. The old argument used to be that if you remove him, then Cloud and Sephiroth dominate, but that's definitely not the case anymore, even going back to 2010. Still, pretty incredible that Link almost won, anyway. That downtime, man. Don't think there's been a bigger gamechanger than that one.
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#114 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:34:30 PM | message detail
40 cut by Mewtwo
I think it was his biggest in the match?
Rally probably not in first page anymore
Who cares
#115 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:34:45 PM | message detail
Like, 'most of whom were Reddit users' could conceivably range from 51%~ to 90%+. That data isn't really conclusive.

That almost doesn't matter. If Reddit was a lower percentage of that and had a lower backfire rate, that just means Link got bigger rallies than we thought. And in any case, that doesn't seem too plausible and gauging by the other matches, getting an extra 65,000 to 70,000 votes from reddit seems pretty reasonable.

The big thing is that Link was getting 40% of the non-Shepard new voters. It means that the nightmare scenario of a lot of the http referrer = reddit votes being stuffing cannot be true. It means the reddit rally is not an unstoppable force. And it means Link almost certainly wins 1v1.
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#116 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:35:05 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Averia posted...
I might be wrong, but I don't think Snake will get such a generous spill over.
Legend of Zelda seems a lot more worldwide known than MGS


Link is actually much weaker worldwide than he is in the USA, where he dominates. Snake is much more than MGS, anyway.


so what you're telling me is Mario really could have done it
or alternatively, Link is just a beast literally everywhere
#117 | FFDragon | Posted 9/11/2013 3:35:45 PM | message detail
I don't understand it either, and it's a shame that that is the viewpoint he came into this contest with.

It really warped things from the start, but knowing it now really does make a lot of things fall into place.
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#118 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/11/2013 3:37:21 PM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
I don't understand it either, and it's a shame that that is the viewpoint he came into this contest with.

It really warped things from the start, but knowing it now really does make a lot of things fall into place.


Yeah.

I can almost see a scenario where he couldn't justify getting rid of Link (why remove the most popular character from a popularity contest, yadda yadda that old chestnut), but agreed with the people on this board that his dominance sucks.
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#119 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:38:05 PM | message detail
Draven is now pulling sub 50 updates
Hello,rallyless Draven
#120 | Mewtwo59 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:38:50 PM | message detail
Scarlettail posted...
Mewtwo59 posted...
Do people really think newer Pokemon would do that well? Did we all forget about how much N sucked? And I doubt any 5th gen Pokemon would do much better in that spot. Newer Pokemon is weak.


Nobody likes N, though. Even I was tempted to anti-vote him, despite my Pokemon love. The games themselves would do much better, as they are still among the most popular games on the site.


Yeah, but that's just one of many examples of post GSC Pokemon sucking. RSE and DPP both sucked in GOTD. Lucario barely beat Isaac and was nearly doubled by Altair. This site just doesn't care about post GSC Pokemon.
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#121 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:40:10 PM | message detail
X-stats
Draven 50.00%
Chie 39.42%
Mewtwo 39.41%

Come on, Mewtwo!
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#122 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/11/2013 3:40:18 PM | message detail
Mewtwo59 posted...
Scarlettail posted...
Mewtwo59 posted...
Do people really think newer Pokemon would do that well? Did we all forget about how much N sucked? And I doubt any 5th gen Pokemon would do much better in that spot. Newer Pokemon is weak.


Nobody likes N, though. Even I was tempted to anti-vote him, despite my Pokemon love. The games themselves would do much better, as they are still among the most popular games on the site.


Yeah, but that's just one of many examples of post GSC Pokemon sucking. RSE and DPP both sucked in GOTD. Lucario barely beat Isaac and was nearly doubled by Altair. This site just doesn't care about post GSC Pokemon.


Pokemon is more popular now than it was just a few years ago. I imagine B/W and likely X/Y would receive better support. The Pokemon themselves might not do well, but the games should fair all right.
#123 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 3:41:46 PM | message detail
Literally the second I looked at my three finalists (the cookie) I said, "He is trying to make Link lose," out loud. This isn't necessarily a bad thing but I'm surprised it was in doubt.
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#124 | Averia | Posted 9/11/2013 3:43:12 PM | message detail
Mewtwo is now stealing poor Chie's third place !
#125 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:43:36 PM | message detail
Averia posted...
Mewtwo is now stealing poor Chie's third place !


*4th place, Link is 2nd
#126 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:45:36 PM | message detail
There. Now Mewtwo has surpassed Chie.

Now I wonder if there's any character besides Link that can actually surpass Jak in the X-Stats.

Although the stats will be completely worthless for the future, I think they will still be nice to have only as a testament to how crazy this contest has been.
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#127 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/11/2013 3:45:38 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
People were asking how strong Mewtwo is. I don't think anyone has a lot of confidence in any number they could come up with for that being accurate but:

Based on Phoenix Wright's matches, Mewtwo this year is worth 63.81% on Marth.

2010 Sephiroth got 71.80% on Marth.

You'd think Marth would be constant-ish. Extrapolating through FFVII has issues, but it's Pokemon, so I'm not going to worry about them.

Works out to Mewtwo being worth ~38.96% on 2010 Sephiroth. Adjustments for 24 hours probably helps Marth against either opponent and helps Mewtwo against Phoenix and add in additional Pokemon rallying/bandwagoning/whatever if it looks like they need it. 2010 Auron was worth 40.99% on Sephiroth and should probably be the minimum, with 2010 Squall's 42.52% on 2010 Sephiroth being more likely. Considering Auron > Sonic 2008 and large amounts of Bowser/Sonic overlap would put Sonic and Mewtwo fairly close, that sounds reasonable. Squall was worth 36.35% on Link that year.

Best I could do! Would I bet that number is accurate? No, of course not. It's Pokemon.


But Marth wouldn't have much reason to stay constant, would he...
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#128 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:47:03 PM | message detail
Ha, the last 3 updates Mewtwo has cut 40, 36, and 46. Too bad for him the quota is 225.
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#129 | ZFS | Posted 9/11/2013 3:48:31 PM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
I don't understand it either, and it's a shame that that is the viewpoint he came into this contest with.

It really warped things from the start, but knowing it now really does make a lot of things fall into place.


Yeah, it was noticeable from the start, even before Draven did his thing. People were itching to take Link down a notch, and the bracket seemed adjusted to try to make it happen (not in an insidious way, but you know, Mario and Samus on the opposite side, the non-Nintendo guys in the middle). The funny part about all this is that Draven probably made Link that much more unbeatable under normal conditions. He'll always have people wanting him to lose, but by him losing, it just takes away all those anti-votes he was dealing with!
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#130 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/11/2013 3:52:34 PM | message detail
Looks like Draven is going to finish with considerably fewer votes than he got against Link, and MMX/Ryu

He could probably get them if he needed them, though
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#131 | ZFS | Posted 9/11/2013 3:52:53 PM | message detail
On the flip side, if someone like Snake had done it 'naturally' in the final, I think it'd just add it to the vulnerability going forward. People want Link to lose, but not through outside rallies for mostly unpopular characters!
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#132 | fluffyflyingpig | Posted 9/11/2013 3:54:23 PM | message detail
so what happened? did reddit suddenly decide not to take down rally topics?

Poll of the Day - Votes Over Time is amazing.
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#133 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 3:55:44 PM | message detail
If Snake had won the cookie Link/Snake/Mario finals he'd never live it down. He'd be living with Link fans dogging him with anti-votes for the rest of his contest career. People are still revenge-voting Cloud for beating Link in 2003. Ten years later.

Cloud lost to Squirtle because he beat Link ten years ago.
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#134 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:56:01 PM | message detail
I wonder if the final was Link-Snake-Mario and Link won, would people complain?
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#135 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/11/2013 3:57:23 PM | message detail
Probably not, but that would have been the final straw to remove Link I would think.
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#136 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/11/2013 3:57:27 PM | message detail
Where did Allen admit that a goal was to get Link to lose?
#137 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/11/2013 4:15:03 PM | message detail
Indonesia, remaining immune to rallying
#138 | ZFS | Posted 9/11/2013 4:18:06 PM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
If Snake had won the cookie Link/Snake/Mario finals he'd never live it down. He'd be living with Link fans dogging him with anti-votes for the rest of his contest career. People are still revenge-voting Cloud for beating Link in 2003. Ten years later.

Cloud lost to Squirtle because he beat Link ten years ago.


I think he'd be alright unless MGS won a game contest, then you'd be screwed because MGS ALWAYS WINS.
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#139 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 4:21:06 PM | message detail
Hey, I've already been anti-voting Snake for leading Link for 6 hours in the 2008 final.
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#140 | tgs2 | Posted 9/11/2013 4:22:01 PM | message detail
fluffyflyingpig posted...
so what happened? did reddit suddenly decide not to take down rally topics?

Poll of the Day - Votes Over Time is amazing.


the Reddit rally thread was taken down right before the match, and for a 45 minute period after Draven's initial rush was wore off, he was nearly getting doubled by Sephiroth and Mewtwo in updates, then it was put back up after discovering someone impersonated Allen to take the rally down when the real Allen told the mods it was okay to rally.
#141 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 4:23:20 PM | message detail
Do you see this is what Snake is up against

he's gonna lose to Master Chief the year after he brings one of these contests home

or worse, Cloud
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#142 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/11/2013 4:23:56 PM | message detail
Honestly, people just anti-vote Cloud because they don't like him. He is pretty much the cancer that killed Final Fantasy, over a very long period. First it seemed benign, but then it became malignant, now it's terminal. RIP in piece FF.

Okay I got a bit carried away there but I am tired.

Especially since I have a song to sing and it has nothing to do with that.

This is a much weaker Draven. Not as dramatic as the round 2 to round 3 drop, but a pretty sizeable gap. He will probably win in the final, but it seems to me that if you put him in a 1 v 1 with any really strong character and gave it the banner notification, he would lose.
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#143 | ZFS | Posted 9/11/2013 4:24:37 PM | message detail
Link getting challenged every now and then is a good thing! Despite the result, Link/Draven is probably a top 3 match all-time. Literally two of the biggest comebacks ever in one match. I don't think Snake had it in him this year to do it, but even getting close would have upped the excitement. Block was gross, though.
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#144 | ZFS | Posted 9/11/2013 4:26:26 PM | message detail
Whoa, what, Cloud isn't the problem with Final Fantasy. The problem lost to DK. FFVII is just old, like Chrono Trigger. And Square Enix is a joke!
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#145 | Averia | Posted 9/11/2013 4:26:41 PM | message detail
I'm thinking he is weaker because the rally fell out of the top and since he isn't threatened at all, no one is bothering to continue.
if Mewtwo had made serious cuts, I'm almost certain Draven would have started picking up again.
#146 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 4:29:11 PM | message detail
Draven is weaker because it's a 24 hour poll. And he's weaker this round than last round because it's not close and there is no need to rally any more.
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#147 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2013 4:30:53 PM | message detail
I do wonder who is going to get abandoned in the final. None of the non-Draven potential finalists have any reason to get abandoned. And yet, one of them almost assuredly will be.
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#148 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/11/2013 4:30:59 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Whoa, what, Cloud isn't the problem with Final Fantasy. The problem lost to DK. FFVII is just old, like Chrono Trigger. And Square Enix is a joke!


But they're the same character!

The best you can say for Cloud is that he's the game character equivalent of The Dark Knight Returns - Does a good job, then people, including his own creators, try to emulate it, get it wrong and it leads to the Dark Age (of comics, or of Final Fantasy in this case).

Seriously though, FF7 is responsible for modern FF. Not a bad game, but harmful.
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#149 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 4:35:16 PM | message detail
Probably whoever isn't Snake will be abandoned.
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#150 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/11/2013 4:36:51 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
People were asking how strong Mewtwo is. I don't think anyone has a lot of confidence in any number they could come up with for that being accurate but:

Based on Phoenix Wright's matches, Mewtwo this year is worth 63.81% on Marth.

2010 Sephiroth got 71.80% on Marth.

You'd think Marth would be constant-ish. Extrapolating through FFVII has issues, but it's Pokemon, so I'm not going to worry about them.

Works out to Mewtwo being worth ~38.96% on 2010 Sephiroth. Adjustments for 24 hours probably helps Marth against either opponent and helps Mewtwo against Phoenix and add in additional Pokemon rallying/bandwagoning/whatever if it looks like they need it. 2010 Auron was worth 40.99% on Sephiroth and should probably be the minimum, with 2010 Squall's 42.52% on 2010 Sephiroth being more likely. Considering Auron > Sonic 2008 and large amounts of Bowser/Sonic overlap would put Sonic and Mewtwo fairly close, that sounds reasonable. Squall was worth 36.35% on Link that year.

Best I could do! Would I bet that number is accurate? No, of course not. It's Pokemon.


But Marth wouldn't have much reason to stay constant, would he...

I think he'd more need a specific reason to not stay constant. Staying at least roughly constant is generally what characters are expected to do by this point. Unless the character is new or in vogue, large declines usually take awhile. Marth's had Brawl as recently as 2008 and his series did get a new game earlier this year where he was at least mentioned and where he was playable using optional DLC content. I dunno if that actually does much for him, but I wouldn't think he'd be notably weaker either.
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