Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1169

#151 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/11/2013 12:45:53 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
_SecretSquirrel posted...
How the hell do you even do xstats while removing the winner?


All you have to do is take the 2nd place finisher in the finals and set them to 50.00% while adjusting all of the other characters based on what they would get on the 2nd place finisher.


I guess, but you still need Draven to get those values on his third of the division. I suppose you don't have to list him....

Wait, that's it. We just Chris Benoit him and refer to the 1st place finisher as Reddit. That'll do.
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#152 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/11/2013 12:45:59 AM | message detail
This is going to be a very sad stretch--nay, it already is. Even though it was bad for my bracket--a Sora win would've given me the lead among Charizard pickers and therefor allowed me to rally for Squirtle > Snake > Sora to kill the threat of Snake winning it all--I was so happy at waking up and seeing Pikachu dominate that I tried to go downstairs with Pikachu on my shoulder or neck. (I dressed as Ash Ketchum for Halloween when I was 10; still have the stuffed Pikachu.)
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#153 | Kinglicious | Posted 9/11/2013 12:46:16 AM | message detail
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Kinglicious posted...
Lu Bu isn't even the example that should be used. Hitler is. Fact is it was... Well Hitler with some superpowers. But he was Hitler in every way there.

The only thing real life Barkley shares in common with the game is a name and basketball. Not the year, character, powers, or anything resembles the real thing. It's a truly transformed character in fiction. That's perfectly in line with the contests. Fact is Hitler is the bottom we know. Fact also is this game has a sequel in the works that got more coin than most indie games get.

Whoo… *inhales*

ARE YOU TELLING ME THAT WILLIAM B.J. BLAZKOWICZ VS. ADOLF HITLER IS A REAL RIVALRY?!?!?!!

If Mario vs. Charles Barkley was something that was actually featured in a video game, then it would have been eligible for the Rivalry Rumble. Blazkowicz is a video-game-original character, so the rivalry is a video-game-original rivalry.


Yet Hitler was a real person. If I picked a guy "too close to reality" then it doesn't matter what the pairing is. He's too real to count.
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#154 | Rymari | Posted 9/11/2013 12:47:32 AM | message detail
Best thing about this poll


Vincent > Sephiroth
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#155 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:47:57 AM | message detail
Rymari posted...
Best thing about this poll


Vincent > Sephiroth

vincent was legit all along
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#156 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:48:07 AM | message detail
One more thing on Link's ability to siphon rally votes vs. X/Ryu: the rally thread making it to r/all in R2 but not R3 is very significant. We would expect a substantially higher backfire percentage from r/all voters than r/lol voters. Which could explain X and Ryu's very high 12 hour votals. After all, stronger characters than those 2 are only getting 45k in 24 hours now,
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#157 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:50:00 AM | message detail
Kinglicious posted...
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Kinglicious posted...
Lu Bu isn't even the example that should be used. Hitler is. Fact is it was... Well Hitler with some superpowers. But he was Hitler in every way there.

The only thing real life Barkley shares in common with the game is a name and basketball. Not the year, character, powers, or anything resembles the real thing. It's a truly transformed character in fiction. That's perfectly in line with the contests. Fact is Hitler is the bottom we know. Fact also is this game has a sequel in the works that got more coin than most indie games get.

Whoo… *inhales*

ARE YOU TELLING ME THAT WILLIAM B.J. BLAZKOWICZ VS. ADOLF HITLER IS A REAL RIVALRY?!?!?!!

If Mario vs. Charles Barkley was something that was actually featured in a video game, then it would have been eligible for the Rivalry Rumble. Blazkowicz is a video-game-original character, so the rivalry is a video-game-original rivalry.


Yet Hitler was a real person. If I picked a guy "too close to reality" then it doesn't matter what the pairing is. He's too real to count.

I don't understand your point. Adolf Hitler was only a valid entry in the contest because of his rival. It wasn't about about the characters involved, it was about the rivalries. There is no double standard. I don't think you would be able to nominate Hitler for a Character Battle.
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#158 | Solid_Mike86 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:51:38 AM | message detail
Seriously, these contests have turned into a big joke. Just stop doing them, please.
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#159 | Singerton | Posted 9/11/2013 12:53:22 AM | message detail
A CoroCoro leak has never been needed more than now.
#160 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:54:32 AM | message detail
5 more hours
5 hours till the point Link started his comeback
#161 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/11/2013 12:55:21 AM | message detail
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Kinglicious posted...
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Kinglicious posted...
Lu Bu isn't even the example that should be used. Hitler is. Fact is it was... Well Hitler with some superpowers. But he was Hitler in every way there.

The only thing real life Barkley shares in common with the game is a name and basketball. Not the year, character, powers, or anything resembles the real thing. It's a truly transformed character in fiction. That's perfectly in line with the contests. Fact is Hitler is the bottom we know. Fact also is this game has a sequel in the works that got more coin than most indie games get.

Whoo… *inhales*

ARE YOU TELLING ME THAT WILLIAM B.J. BLAZKOWICZ VS. ADOLF HITLER IS A REAL RIVALRY?!?!?!!

If Mario vs. Charles Barkley was something that was actually featured in a video game, then it would have been eligible for the Rivalry Rumble. Blazkowicz is a video-game-original character, so the rivalry is a video-game-original rivalry.


Yet Hitler was a real person. If I picked a guy "too close to reality" then it doesn't matter what the pairing is. He's too real to count.

I don't understand your point. Adolf Hitler was only a valid entry in the contest because of his rival. It wasn't about about the characters involved, it was about the rivalries. There is no double standard. I don't think you would be able to nominate Hitler for a Character Battle.


So if we nominated Charles Barkley vs. Michael Jordan for the rivalry rumble you think Allen would have allowed it?
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#162 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:59:10 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
So if we nominated Charles Barkley vs. Michael Jordan for the rivalry rumble you think Allen would have allowed it?

That depends on if it's a video-game-original rivalry.
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#163 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:01:09 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
5 more hours
5 hours till the point Link started his comeback

That's not happening! Let's not act like Mewtwo is on Link's level or anything!
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#164 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:02:27 AM | message detail
Mewtwo is never going to make a comeback attempt. Sephiroth is going to win more updates on Mewtwo in the rest of this match than Mewtwo will win updates over Draven.

Assuming Link/Draven/Shepard ends at 130k votes without the downtime, and knowing Gamefaqs matches bring in around 45k without rallying, that yields about 65% of the total votes coming from rallying.

Link's path to victory was that he was probably winning on Gamefaqs something like 70-20-10 (the 10 being Draven). The rallied votes were probably going something like 65-35-0 for Draven.

This match the rallied votes are probably going more like 80-20-0, and the Gamefaqs votes something like 45-45-10. (Seph will likely end up fairly close to Mewtwo percentagewise, and he's clearly getting far fewer rally votes, so it makes sense he's doing okay with the natural votes).
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#165 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:03:28 AM | message detail
Draven is building on his lead twice as quickly now as he was on Link at this point. This is over.
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#166 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:05:47 AM | message detail
Singerton posted...
A CoroCoro leak has never been needed more than now.


It won't help
Pokemon fans don't even care one tenth of how much LoL fans do
#167 | ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/11/2013 1:06:26 AM | message detail
Kinglicious posted...
...Hitler was literally in the contest. Nothing to try again there. He was in, he was valid, he's the bottom. If he's so bad then fact is the contest allows things that bad. Being in the polls as Adolf changes nothing there. I don't see your argument here. The Hitler from wolfenstein was in the rivalry rumble.


And yet "Hitler" remains a terrible argument, even if he was characterized in a game. Hitler is not a reason why Barkley should be in a character contest. If Charles Barkley knew he "should be included in a vgc contest because Hitler was" I don't think he'd take that as a mark of pride. At all. If I were Barkley I'd take it as an insult.

Frankly, in my eyes, anyone who says Barkley should be eligible because Hitler got in is f***ing insane.




"Because Hitler"

IS

NEVER

AN

ACCUSE

Or

A

Justification.

"Because Hitler" was !essentially! considered a war crime for German troops post-WWII.



Seriously, if you can't make an argument without bringing up Hitler...

YOU DON'T HAVE AN ARGUMENT.
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#168 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/11/2013 1:06:56 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
This match the rallied votes are probably going more like 80-20-0, and the Gamefaqs votes something like 45-45-10. (Seph will likely end up fairly close to Mewtwo percentagewise, and he's clearly getting far fewer rally votes, so it makes sense he's doing okay with the natural votes).


The GameFAQs votes were probably like 20-50-30 based on how Sephiroth was cutting into Draven's lead during the time when there were no active rally topics on the LoL subreddit.
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#169 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:08:17 AM | message detail
Nah, there's no time in this match that wasn't being impacted by rallies. There were rally topics popping up and being deleted all day yesterday, and a very big one that got enough steam to hit r/all before the match began. There was ambient traffic from those rallies all through this match.
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#170 | creativename | Posted 9/11/2013 1:09:39 AM | message detail
Red Shifter posted...
can we have an x-stats with draven removed from it and call those the real x-stats

With all the LFF, SFF, bandwagoning, rallies - x-stats would serve no purpose whatsoever. Unless you just want them for humor purposes to see absurdities!

With the low vote totals we have now and rallies being so big, I think even in a 1v1 x-stats will never be useful again. Back in the day with high vote totals, almost everything was extremely linear. Even FF7 was very linear because anti-votes were drowned out. Even in the early 4-ways, things were mainly linear except for SFF/LFF cases.

Now, everything is basically completely random and totally non-linear.

Entropy always increases, they say. That's what's happened to our contests - they've gone to chaos! The arrow of time does not go backwards...
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#171 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:09:49 AM | message detail
Draven
44.28%
13146 Votes
Your Pick

Mewtwo
35.99%
10685 Votes

Sephiroth
19.73%
5859 Votes
Total Votes: 29690
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#172 | Qwaar | Posted 9/11/2013 1:11:01 AM | message detail
Sep nearly cut Mewtwo there.
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#173 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:11:17 AM | message detail
Mewtwo with an 8 vote gain on Sephiroth to kick off the TDZ. We'll see some cuts soon.
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#174 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/11/2013 1:11:40 AM | message detail
In fairness that was magic dual Gatling gun wielding robot piloting Hitler, who is a sizeable departure.

Anyway, now that Reddit avatar has the lead, I am going to stop caring. I am just going to go about my day, and ignore the rest of the match. I have other things to do. I will go and do them and not let a fun hobby being ruined detract from that.
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#175 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:11:50 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
The arrow of time does not go backwards...

Well, certainly not after we lost Link and Crono!
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#176 | creativename | Posted 9/11/2013 1:11:54 AM | message detail
ChichiriMuyo posted...
Seriously, if you can't make an argument without bringing up Hitler...

YOU DON'T HAVE AN ARGUMENT.

...you are not even remotely close to making any kind of sense. How can we not discuss Hitler, when Hitler is literally the precedent we have to deal with?
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#177 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/11/2013 1:13:10 AM | message detail
ChichiriMuyo posted...
Kinglicious posted...
...Hitler was literally in the contest. Nothing to try again there. He was in, he was valid, he's the bottom. If he's so bad then fact is the contest allows things that bad. Being in the polls as Adolf changes nothing there. I don't see your argument here. The Hitler from wolfenstein was in the rivalry rumble.


Seriously, if you can't make an argument without bringing up Hitler...

YOU DON'T HAVE AN ARGUMENT.


are you on drugs
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#178 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:13:11 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Mewtwo with an 8 vote gain on Sephiroth to kick off the TDZ. We'll see some cuts soon.

Really, really wish we got to see Sephiroth against unrallied Draven here.

I mean, they've already established they could crush Mewtwo in a few updates, they could have waited a few hours!
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#179 | creativename | Posted 9/11/2013 1:13:13 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
creativename posted...
The arrow of time does not go backwards...

Well, certainly not after we lost Link and Crono!

Solid observation! I must ruminate on this.
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#180 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:16:03 AM | message detail
Based on L-Block/Cloud, Mewtwo beats Sephiroth with 57.30%
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#181 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:19:54 AM | message detail
5 votes. Come on, Sephy, cut!
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#182 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:23:36 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
5 votes. Come on, Sephy, cut!

He'll do it, don't worry!
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#183 | ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/11/2013 1:25:23 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
ChichiriMuyo posted...
Seriously, if you can't make an argument without bringing up Hitler...

YOU DON'T HAVE AN ARGUMENT.

...you are not even remotely close to making any kind of sense. How can we not discuss Hitler, when Hitler is literally the precedent we have to deal with?


You still don't have an argument. If Charles Barkley heard he was in a contest because Hitler was in a contest he'd be mortified. NO ONE. Absolutely NO ONE wants their legitimacy compared to the legitimacy of Hitler. Ever. Even if you love Charles Barkley and think his vg character's exclusion is the worst thing ever you still don't wan't to compare Barkley to Hitler

I'm dumbfounded here... I do not understand how you and others can possibly hold the argument you do. To compare even fictionalized versions of Hitler to fictionalized versions of Charles Barkley is down right insulting.

I don't care who got into what contest, no one should ever be compared to Hitler. It's just bad taste. It's just plain insulting. And, more than that, It's usually dishonest to an extreme degree.
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#184 | creativename | Posted 9/11/2013 1:27:30 AM | message detail
ChichiriMuyo posted...
creativename posted...
ChichiriMuyo posted...
Seriously, if you can't make an argument without bringing up Hitler...

YOU DON'T HAVE AN ARGUMENT.

...you are not even remotely close to making any kind of sense. How can we not discuss Hitler, when Hitler is literally the precedent we have to deal with?


You still don't have an argument. If Charles Barkley heard he was in a contest because Hitler was in a contest he'd be mortified. NO ONE. Absolutely NO ONE wants their legitimacy compared to the legitimacy of Hitler. Ever. Even if you love Charles Barkley and think his vg character's exclusion is the worst thing ever you still don't wan't to compare Barkley to Hitler

I'm dumbfounded here... I do not understand how you and others can possibly hold the argument you do. To compare even fictionalized versions of Hitler to fictionalized versions of Charles Barkley is down right insulting.

I don't care who got into what contest, no one should ever be compared to Hitler. It's just bad taste. It's just plain insulting. And, more than that, It's usually dishonest to an extreme degree.

Yeah...most definitely on drugs! >_>
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#185 | Azp2k32 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:30:46 AM | message detail
Jesus, Chich. The fact that the fictionalized version of a person happens to be Adolf Hitler is irrelevant here, and no one is comparing Barkley to Hitler. Nobody is f***ing Godwin's lawing this argument and using Hitler for any other reason except for the fact that he was the person precedent was set with. Think of it this way. All seople are saying is "Hey, one fictionalized version of a real life person got in, this should mean that other fictionalized versions of real people can get in too, like this version of Charles Barkley!"
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#186 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:33:17 AM | message detail
The final Link/Draven hourlies, the most extreme trends we have ever seen and are likely to ever see in the foreseeable future:

Draven by the Hour vs. Link:

1:00 | 53.49% | +859
2:00 | 53.51% | +573
3:00 | 58.48% | +1050
4:00 | 63.51% | +1071
5:00 | 61.72% | +845
6:00 | 61.82% | +735
7:00 | 59.73% | +583
8:00 | 54.44% | +264
9:00 | 50.58% | +38
10:00 | 45.38% | -327
11:00 | 41.91% | -619
12:00 | 37.90% | -916
13:00 | 30.80% | -506
14:00 | 37.08% | -448
15:00 | 47.89% | -197
16:00 | 61.26% | +1190
17:00 | 59.58% | +874
18:00 | 39.38% | -1160
19:00 | 47.20% | -228
20:00 | 38.58% | -951
21:00 | 43.02% | -549
22:00 | 42.51% | -626
23:00 | 48.18% | -184
24:00 | 41.62% | -706
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#187 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:35:41 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
The final Link/Draven hourlies, the most extreme trends we have ever seen and are likely to ever see in the foreseeable future:

Probably the most fun I'll have in the contest for the foreseeable future too!

That match.

Never forget.
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#188 | ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/11/2013 1:37:57 AM | message detail
Azp2k32 posted...
Jesus, Chich. The fact that the fictionalized version of a person happens to be Adolf Hitler is irrelevant here, and no one is comparing Barkley to Hitler. Nobody is f***ing Godwin's lawing this argument and using Hitler for any other reason except for the fact that he was the person precedent was set with. Think of it this way. All seople are saying is "Hey, one fictionalized version of a real life person got in, this should mean that other fictionalized versions of real people can get in too, like this version of Charles Barkley!"


I'm not trying to be overly literal here, but ffs someone should make a better argument than "Hitler." I could make 12 better arguments myself. You're smart enough to make 30 arguments in place of "Hitler." No one should have ever made "Hitler" an argument to begin with. That guy was a troll.

We should all, as a group, agree to have better arguments than "Hitler."

But if that's the best argument one person will put forward, I'm going to call that person out for what they are.
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#189 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/11/2013 1:41:15 AM | message detail
ChichiriMuyo posted...
Azp2k32 posted...
Jesus, Chich. The fact that the fictionalized version of a person happens to be Adolf Hitler is irrelevant here, and no one is comparing Barkley to Hitler. Nobody is f***ing Godwin's lawing this argument and using Hitler for any other reason except for the fact that he was the person precedent was set with. Think of it this way. All seople are saying is "Hey, one fictionalized version of a real life person got in, this should mean that other fictionalized versions of real people can get in too, like this version of Charles Barkley!"


I'm not trying to be overly literal here, but ffs someone should make a better argument than "Hitler." I could make 12 better arguments myself. You're smart enough to make 30 arguments in place of "Hitler." No one should have ever made "Hitler" an argument to begin with. That guy was a troll.

We should all, as a group, agree to have better arguments than "Hitler."

But if that's the best argument one person will put forward, I'm going to call that person out for what they are.


You're trolling, right?
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#190 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/11/2013 1:42:57 AM | message detail | (edited)
Why are you being harsh on it just because the example happens to be Hitler. Sounds like you're letting emotions get in the way of logic. If it was anyone else in that position besides Hitler and people made the same argument, would you even bat an eyelash? Sounds like you're being biased.
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#191 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/11/2013 1:42:20 AM | message detail
OK, if we stop using Hitler as an argument and start using Lu Bu, will you stop talking?
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#192 | ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/11/2013 1:44:07 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
OK, if we stop using Hitler as an argument and start using Lu Bu, will you stop talking?


No, I won't stop talking. But I will be less annoying. Is that acceptable?
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#193 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/11/2013 1:44:33 AM | message detail
ChichiriMuyo posted...
Azp2k32 posted...
Jesus, Chich. The fact that the fictionalized version of a person happens to be Adolf Hitler is irrelevant here, and no one is comparing Barkley to Hitler. Nobody is f***ing Godwin's lawing this argument and using Hitler for any other reason except for the fact that he was the person precedent was set with. Think of it this way. All seople are saying is "Hey, one fictionalized version of a real life person got in, this should mean that other fictionalized versions of real people can get in too, like this version of Charles Barkley!"


I'm not trying to be overly literal here, but ffs someone should make a better argument than "Hitler." I could make 12 better arguments myself. You're smart enough to make 30 arguments in place of "Hitler." No one should have ever made "Hitler" an argument to begin with. That guy was a troll.

We should all, as a group, agree to have better arguments than "Hitler."

But if that's the best argument one person will put forward, I'm going to call that person out for what they are.


Are you f***ing serious right now?

I have never seen someone act this stupid and I'm not just saying this because you told me to get over myself earlier.

You need to get over, well, whatever drugs you're on because you are embarrassing right now.
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#194 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/11/2013 1:45:00 AM | message detail
ChichiriMuyo posted...
_SecretSquirrel posted...
OK, if we stop using Hitler as an argument and start using Lu Bu, will you stop talking?


No, I won't stop talking. But I will be less annoying. Is that acceptable?


Not hard for you to be less annoying than that diatribe. Christ.
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#195 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:51:15 AM | message detail
Can someone please post Draven vote intake per update ever since comeback started?
Im on mobile so no excel so uh...
Is he even slowing down?
#196 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/11/2013 1:51:16 AM | message detail
These Wick contractions are looking more appealing all of the time!
Or sleep. Yeah, sleep may be the best option.
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#197 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/11/2013 1:52:50 AM | message detail
He's down from an initial 400-500 votes per update to ~250 votes per update
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#198 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:54:31 AM | message detail
He's definitely slowing down.

415
404
415
477
440
409
406
403
407
429
338
368
379
312
290
306
342
296
266
262
272
243
265
267
243
273
249
261
272
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#199 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 1:58:33 AM | message detail
Sephiroth, are you really going to let a Pokemon do this to you during the TDZ?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#200 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 2:03:04 AM | message detail
That's more like it!

glad to see all it took was a quick pep talk to get sephiroth back in the game
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX