Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1169

#101 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/11/2013 12:17:53 AM | message detail
Wanglicious posted...
wel that just says you picked the wrong guy. you should've BELIEVED if you wanted to win the guru, now you're just lame.


I did believe! I believed enough to take Charizard to the Finals under the expectation that it would be against Mario and Samus! (Actually, precisely because it was Mario and Samus--Mario or Samus with a neutral third party, I don't think Charizard could pull off. Luckily, the third party wouldn't have been neutral! Samus's ability to collapse before other Nintendo would've been key.)
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#102 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/11/2013 12:18:00 AM | message detail
BTW, I gotta be honest, I feel kinda bad for how you're getting a raw deal, guys - the match fixing was a complete farce, but it's got to suck to see your dreams crushed like this. My sympathies, for real. Here's to hoping we can get a real honest Link/Draven bonus match. 1v1, 24 hours, no gimmicks, no tricks, no DDoSes. Settle the score once and for all, the way it should be done.
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#103 | ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/11/2013 12:18:00 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
This match is a train wreck in the making. People were just about biting each other's heads off back when we thought Draven winning was a shoe-in. Now that Draven winning is a shoe-in after we have 2.5 hours of hope...this board will be ugly tomorrow.


This is one thing you and I can agree upon 100%
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SuperNiceDog had a super nice bracket too.
#104 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:18:06 AM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
red sox 777 posted...
And yeah, Draven's updates aren't going to stay at this 400-level for too much longer. The rally will weaken as more people have already voted, and as more people go to sleep.


But Draven still has this wrapped up though?

obviously
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#105 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/11/2013 12:18:24 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I love conspiracy theories as much as the next guy, but Draven's rally never hit r/all in that match to my knowledge.

It did tonight and in X/Ryu.


Yeah, I'm pretty sure Draven's rally didn't even reach the first or second page of r/all during Link's match. In X/Ryu, it reached the first page of r/all around 3:05 AM EST, which is why vote totals spiked right after 3:05 AM. During X/Ryu, votes per update from 2:30 AM to 3:40 AM:

2:30 AM - 695
2:35 AM - 734
2:40 AM - 688
2:45 AM - 712
2:50 AM - 646
2:55 AM - 613
3:00 AM - 579
3:05 AM - 663
3:10 AM - 719
3:15 AM - 793
3:20 AM - 734

3:25 AM - 696
3:30 AM - 654
3:35 AM - 576
3:40 AM - 624

You can see the sharp increase in vote totals between 3:05 AM and 3:20 AM.
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#106 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/11/2013 12:18:30 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fw5acgqIHQE

Appropriate soundtrack for right now.


No, this is appropriate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaALQCdhDXc

dat artist name


Okay Kanz.

Even though you will rightly go down in history as the man who ruined GameFAQs Contests, that was actually pretty damn funny. Well done.
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#107 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/11/2013 12:20:36 AM | message detail
ChichiriMuyo posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
I still want to hear Allen explain how Barkley isn't allowed because he's a real guy and Lu Bu is.


*note* I am not saying I agree with the policy, just that I understand it and think it's fair:

I personally think it violates the spirit of the contest. I don't know what Allen would say, but I don't think people should vote for Barkley for what he did within our lifetimes (for those of us who remember him as a basketball player). I lived in Arizona when he joined the Suns and that will forever taint my opinion of him. Lu Bu, despite having been a real person, is so removed from my reality that he is effectively a character. On top of that, what stories we do know of him have been fictionalized to a degree in order to make the story more exciting even within a genuine historical context. Also, Koei's version is really a fictionalization of a fictionalization.

tldr:

Essentially, Barkley is simply more real to us than Lu Bu because he is alive and we can contextualize the fictitious Barkley against the real one with a nearly perfect degree of accuracy. The fictional Lu Bu is, oddly, even more real to us now than the actual person he is based off of.


That's a logical way of looking at it. Fake Barkley is still too similar to real Barkley.

Now, Vinceborg, even though he's also based on a recent basketball player, might be eligible, because the real Vince Carter is most definitely not a robot. (Not that we'd nominate him; just using him as an example. If anyone from that game that would be eligible is worth a nom, it'd probably be Hoopz himself.)
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#108 | Sorozone | Posted 9/11/2013 12:20:45 AM | message detail
You gave it a good try Mewtwo.

Too bad this whole thing was so mismanaged it's hard to actually care.
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#109 | ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/11/2013 12:21:53 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
If you are a picsmith and you make pics anymore, you're dead to me. If Allen wants to say f*** you to us, we should make him do his own work for the rest of his (and reddit's) contest.


"Dead to ExTha" has now plummeted to the lowest position of things I have ever thought about in my life. Get over yourself.
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SuperNiceDog had a super nice bracket too.
#110 | ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/11/2013 12:21:53 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
If you are a picsmith and you make pics anymore, you're dead to me. If Allen wants to say f*** you to us, we should make him do his own work for the rest of his (and reddit's) contest.


"Dead to ExTha" has now plummeted to the lowest position of things I have ever thought about in my life. Get over yourself.
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SuperNiceDog had a super nice bracket too.
#111 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:23:03 AM | message detail
So now that Allen allowed rallying again,it is also "League of Legends related" as well?

lol mods
#112 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:23:24 AM | message detail
So now that Allen allowed rallying again,it is also "League of Legends related" as well?

lol mods
#113 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/11/2013 12:24:15 AM | message detail
With this Mewtwo spillover I could actually believe that tonight is legitimate. Hundreds voted immediately when they saw it (instead of being more spread out) and now it's slowing down. It still feels wrong, but I could believe it. But there is not a chance on Earth that R2 Draven was legit. Not a chance.
#114 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/11/2013 12:24:57 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
So now that Allen allowed rallying again,it is also "League of Legends related" as well?

lol mods


That... is a hilarious point. I never even thought of that.
#115 | Lopen | Posted 9/11/2013 12:24:57 AM | message detail
What is this the double post page?
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#116 | Lopen | Posted 9/11/2013 12:24:58 AM | message detail
What is this the double post page?
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#117 | Kinglicious | Posted 9/11/2013 12:26:15 AM | message detail
Lu Bu isn't even the example that should be used. Hitler is. Fact is it was... Well Hitler with some superpowers. But he was Hitler in every way there.

The only thing real life Barkley shares in common with the game is a name and basketball. Not the year, character, powers, or anything resembles the real thing. It's a truly transformed character in fiction. That's perfectly in line with the contests. Fact is Hitler is the bottom we know. Fact also is this game has a sequel in the works that got more coin than most indie games get.
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#118 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:26:21 AM | message detail
Draven
40.96%
10325 Votes
Your Pick

Mewtwo
38.45%
9691 Votes

Sephiroth
20.59%
5191 Votes
Total Votes: 25207
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#119 | ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/11/2013 12:29:16 AM | message detail
Kinglicious posted...
Lu Bu isn't even the example that should be used. Hitler is. Fact is it was... Well Hitler with some superpowers. But he was Hitler in every way there.

The only thing real life Barkley shares in common with the game is a name and basketball. Not the year, character, powers, or anything resembles the real thing. It's a truly transformed character in fiction. That's perfectly in line with the contests. Fact is Hitler is the bottom we know. Fact also is this game has a sequel in the works that got more coin than most indie games get.


"Hitler" is pretty much always a bad argument, no matter what opinion you are presenting. Hitler is a dirtier word in our language than f*** or c***. Please try again.
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SuperNiceDog had a super nice bracket too.
#120 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:29:35 AM | message detail
You don't even need to go in depth, here. No need to go into baselines.

Ryu/MMX/Draven had 85k votes after 12 hours. Draven had 55k of those votes.
Link/Draven/Shep had 66k votes after 12 hours. Draven had 32k of those votes.

This means Link + Shepard drew 34k votes and Ryu+MMX drew 30k. Like there's not even a huge difference in the amount of total votes they got. And if anything you'd expect the MMX match to have less votes considering it started later


I see. Well, one thing is that the 24 hour match was always Link's biggest advantage. If it were 12 hours he would have been finished, but 24 (er....22.5) gave him the chance to fight back with the day vote when the rally had weakened and with his own rallies. I think Link's own rallies probably brought in 5000+ votes and were almost exclusively in the 2nd half of the match.

Those numbers could actually be fairly substantial. If you assume the non-rallied votes for both matches would be the same (possible because MMX/Ryu are probably not too far off from Link/Shepard in a 4-way), and expand those backfire effect to the full 24 hours, we're talking about a swing of more than 10,000 votes net. Add on Link's own rallies, and we're looking at something like 15,000-20,000 votes Link is getting, or Draven is losing, because of Link's ability to compete in the rallying domain.
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#121 | handsomeboy2012 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:30:07 AM | message detail
Draven has already slowed down - he is only managing ~150 vote gains now.
#122 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/11/2013 12:30:35 AM | message detail
ChichiriMuyo posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
If you are a picsmith and you make pics anymore, you're dead to me. If Allen wants to say f*** you to us, we should make him do his own work for the rest of his (and reddit's) contest.


"Dead to ExTha" has now plummeted to the lowest position of things I have ever thought about in my life. Get over yourself.


hahaha
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#123 | LinkFTMFW | Posted 9/11/2013 12:30:37 AM | message detail
Well.......... .Mewtwo is already in a horrible position. He has a thousand vote climb which is fairly substantial. He isnt out, but he's close.
#124 | elitewarrior500 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:31:06 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#125 | GuitaristMatt | Posted 9/11/2013 12:31:46 AM | message detail
ok what is going on. The votes keep going up and down. Mewtwo winning, Mewtwo losing. WTH?
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#126 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 9/11/2013 12:31:49 AM | message detail
SBAllen posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
I still want to hear Allen explain how Barkley isn't allowed because he's a real guy and Lu Bu is.

Because.


This literally the greatest response ever.
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#127 | ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/11/2013 12:32:18 AM | message detail
A Foolish Person posted...
ChichiriMuyo posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
If you are a picsmith and you make pics anymore, you're dead to me. If Allen wants to say f*** you to us, we should make him do his own work for the rest of his (and reddit's) contest.


"Dead to ExTha" has now plummeted to the lowest position of things I have ever thought about in my life. Get over yourself.


hahaha

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SuperNiceDog had a super nice bracket too.
#128 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:33:09 AM | message detail
GuitaristMatt posted...
ok what is going on. The votes keep going up and down. Mewtwo winning, Mewtwo losing. WTH?

The rallies were down and Draven became fodder. Then they came back and we've got the guy who beat Link again. Mewtwo and Sephiroth have been about as normal as you could expect given the situation.
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#129 | creativename | Posted 9/11/2013 12:33:52 AM | message detail
ChichiriMuyo posted...
Kinglicious posted...
Lu Bu isn't even the example that should be used. Hitler is. Fact is it was... Well Hitler with some superpowers. But he was Hitler in every way there.

The only thing real life Barkley shares in common with the game is a name and basketball. Not the year, character, powers, or anything resembles the real thing. It's a truly transformed character in fiction. That's perfectly in line with the contests. Fact is Hitler is the bottom we know. Fact also is this game has a sequel in the works that got more coin than most indie games get.


"Hitler" is pretty much always a bad argument, no matter what opinion you are presenting. Hitler is a dirtier word in our language than f*** or c***. Please try again.

I'm confused as to what your stance is. What do you mean "bad argument"? Hitler should never have been allowed, and if even he was allowed, there's no reason Barkley shouldn't be. Hitler is like 1000x worse than Barkley from any angle you look at it.

Ultimaphazon posted...
SBAllen posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
I still want to hear Allen explain how Barkley isn't allowed because he's a real guy and Lu Bu is.

Because.


This literally the greatest response ever.

Where did he say this?
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#130 | Kinglicious | Posted 9/11/2013 12:34:13 AM | message detail
...Hitler was literally in the contest. Nothing to try again there. He was in, he was valid, he's the bottom. If he's so bad then fact is the contest allows things that bad. Being in the polls as Adolf changes nothing there. I don't see your argument here. The Hitler from wolfenstein was in the rivalry rumble.
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#131 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:34:31 AM | message detail
I'll hazard a guess that Mewtwo will be down about 12,000 votes come morning at 9 AM (when Draven's lead on Link peaked).
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#132 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:34:59 AM | message detail
Where did he say this?

Post 21: This topic.
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#133 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:35:46 AM | message detail
Where did he say this?

First page of this topic.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#134 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/11/2013 12:35:56 AM | message detail
Everyone vote snake now.
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#135 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:36:29 AM | message detail
The reddit losers opening their mouth just as Draven started getting cuts just show how pathetic they were
They totally hid in the shade when Mewtwo dominated
#136 | Red Shifter | Posted 9/11/2013 12:37:23 AM | message detail
can we have an x-stats with draven removed from it and call those the real x-stats
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#137 | elitewarrior500 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:37:52 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
The reddit losers opening their mouth just as Draven started getting cuts just show how pathetic they were
They totally hid in the shade when Mewtwo dominated


seems like every day theres an option to vote for draven this board becomes full of new user accounts from reddit
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#138 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/11/2013 12:37:57 AM | message detail
Picsmiths actually entertaining your Barkley idea, or something different to say 'f*** you allen'

Can't believe they're on board. That would be awesome if Allen had to make his own finals pictures.
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#139 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:38:56 AM | message detail
Red Shifter posted...
can we have an x-stats with draven removed from it and call those the real x-stats

X-Stats were going to be a mess anyway!
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#140 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/11/2013 12:39:24 AM | message detail
Red Shifter posted...
can we have an x-stats with draven removed from it and call those the real x-stats


How the hell do you even do xstats while removing the winner?
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#141 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/11/2013 12:39:51 AM | message detail
ChichiriMuyo posted...
Kinglicious posted...
Lu Bu isn't even the example that should be used. Hitler is. Fact is it was... Well Hitler with some superpowers. But he was Hitler in every way there.

The only thing real life Barkley shares in common with the game is a name and basketball. Not the year, character, powers, or anything resembles the real thing. It's a truly transformed character in fiction. That's perfectly in line with the contests. Fact is Hitler is the bottom we know. Fact also is this game has a sequel in the works that got more coin than most indie games get.


"Hitler" is pretty much always a bad argument, no matter what opinion you are presenting. Hitler is a dirtier word in our language than f*** or c***. Please try again.


You're falling into the trap of Godwin's Law being absolute!

It's definitely very strong, but the use of Hitler is valid in this situation.
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#142 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:40:23 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Red Shifter posted...
can we have an x-stats with draven removed from it and call those the real x-stats


How the hell do you even do xstats while removing the winner?

You could do it! It'd just be a trainwreck!

Make a lot of assumptions about character strength based off of 2010 or something!
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#143 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:41:16 AM | message detail
Welcome back the the League of Draven
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#144 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:41:36 AM | message detail
Kinglicious posted...
Lu Bu isn't even the example that should be used. Hitler is. Fact is it was... Well Hitler with some superpowers. But he was Hitler in every way there.

The only thing real life Barkley shares in common with the game is a name and basketball. Not the year, character, powers, or anything resembles the real thing. It's a truly transformed character in fiction. That's perfectly in line with the contests. Fact is Hitler is the bottom we know. Fact also is this game has a sequel in the works that got more coin than most indie games get.

Whoo… *inhales*

ARE YOU TELLING ME THAT WILLIAM B.J. BLAZKOWICZ VS. ADOLF HITLER IS A REAL RIVALRY?!?!?!!

If Mario vs. Charles Barkley was something that was actually featured in a video game, then it would have been eligible for the Rivalry Rumble. Blazkowicz is a video-game-original character, so the rivalry is a video-game-original rivalry.
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#145 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:41:42 AM | message detail
The point of the extrapolated standings is that they are extrapolated. If you don't extrapolate, you don't have extrapolated standings, just a list of your estimates for character strengths. Which could very well be more accurate, but it wouldn't be a statistic.
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10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#146 | Kinglicious | Posted 9/11/2013 12:41:42 AM | message detail
Picsmiths can put Barkley in all the pictures submitted. Why?
Because.

Not the first time unrelated characters make the pic. We've even had contest participants in others' pictures (missingno in charizard, 2010).
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#147 | vcharon | Posted 9/11/2013 12:42:48 AM | message detail
Barkley should appear in every picture submitted from now on, I agree. Let Allen make his own pictures or let Reddit make them for him imo
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#148 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:43:16 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
The point of the extrapolated standings is that they are extrapolated. If you don't extrapolate, you don't have extrapolated standings, just a list of your estimates for character strengths. Which could very well be more accurate, but it wouldn't be a statistic.

Well, you'd still be extrapolating when possible, but I just mean you could tie together the now-disconnected pieces of the bracket if you assumed certain characters constant or something.

It'd be a mess and I don't think it's at all worth doing, but...
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#149 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/11/2013 12:43:25 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
How the hell do you even do xstats while removing the winner?


All you have to do is take the 2nd place finisher in the finals and set them to 50.00% while adjusting all of the other characters based on what they would get on the 2nd place finisher.
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#150 | xp1337 | Posted 9/11/2013 12:44:42 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
_SecretSquirrel posted...
How the hell do you even do xstats while removing the winner?


All you have to do is take the 2nd place finisher in the finals and set them to 50.00% while adjusting all of the other characters based on what they would get on the 2nd place finisher.

You'd have to give Draven a value just to deal with his third of the bracket still.
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