Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1168

#1 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:40:14 PM | message detail
Welcome to the Pokemon League!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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"That choke point bridge in Chapter 2 completely changed my strategy as well as my views on life." - WestbrickIII
#2 | paulg235 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:41:08 PM | message detail
Mega Man still beat Charizard. :)
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Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#3 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:47:18 PM | message detail
Holy crap, over 10000 votes already?!
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#4 | gearofages | Posted 9/10/2013 9:48:40 PM | message detail
How many votes does the banner add? 1000? 5,000? 10,000? 59?
#5 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2013 9:49:16 PM | message detail
Given the massive scale of Draven's rallying power when left unchecked, Mewtwo probably needs the lead to be 7 or 8 times larger than it currently is to be absolutely safe.
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#6 | Big Bob | Posted 9/10/2013 9:49:56 PM | message detail
24 hour match. Even if Draven takes the lead, he'll slow down. Mewtwo has this.
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The following games receive my personal recommendation: Ghost Trick. 999. Driver: San Francisco. Rayman Origins. Persona 4. Spec Ops. Just Cause 2. Limbo.
#7 | xp1337 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:50:39 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
If reddit gives up, the dead zone will be very rough for Draven.

Sephiroth looking great to come second here.

Thinking about it, I almost want Draven to pull the lead up some more so we can see Sephiroth break the comeback record that Link was robbed of.

But at this rate Sephiroth isn't going to wait!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#8 | latiasz | Posted 9/10/2013 9:50:52 PM | message detail
Alright, everyone look at this thread
http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1m5n46/if_draven_wins_the_gamefaqs_contest_riot_make_a/

The mod made it but had to delete it because someone posted the poll in the comment section. You know what that means, right?
Also, don't forget to report these threads by message the moderator for vote soliciting.
#9 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/10/2013 9:50:54 PM | message detail
gearofages posted...
How many votes does the banner add? 1000? 5,000? 10,000? 59?


We're not going to have a clear answer to this question until we see tomorrow's match in action.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#10 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:51:02 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
RockMFR posted...
It's amazing. An hour ago, it looked like Mega Man was totally screwed. Now it is not absolutely crazy to speculate that he could win this whole thing.

Finally a genuine scrappy underdog story!


hey now, I know we joke about Pokemon being "scrappy underdogs" when they're not
Mewtwo is also a genuine underdog here
#11 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:51:14 PM | message detail
I swear to God I will be so pissed if after getting up to #13 on the Expert leaderboard and the one time, THE ONE ****ING TIME, I pick Draven for 1st, he loses.

So. Pissed.
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FFIXOwner Bracket: 169/243
Expert: 648 (lol?)
#12 | Jump_Man7 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:51:15 PM | message detail
I hate this. I'm still mad at Charizard for losing, but I don't want to vote against Mega Man in the next round because that was actually pretty spectacular. ehhh ill vote Red
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||Our the Yoshi||
||The One True Character||
#13 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/10/2013 9:51:15 PM | message detail
gearofages posted...
How many votes does the banner add? 1000? 5,000? 10,000? 59?


This match could easily go over 100k. Not sure if it'll top Link/Draven because that was rallied out the wazoo, but if it does...hooray for future contests!!!

Also, it can't be stated enough that having a site-wide poll was suggested by several of us in the Stats during and after the Link match. Major props to Allen for finding the reasonable suggestions in the middle of a lot of whining by us :D

Or maybe he planned to do it all along. The evil mastermind....
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
#14 | ZFS | Posted 9/10/2013 9:51:19 PM | message detail
I think my problem is is that the selection of champions here is joke worthy since Link lost

Mewtwo literally could win do you see what kind of chaos happens when ZELDA isn't around to keep this stuff in check
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#15 | Drakeryn | Posted 9/10/2013 9:51:32 PM | message detail
Mewtwo is obviously beating Draven because of plucky underdog SFF.

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another place and time, without a great divide, and we could be flying deadly high
#16 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/10/2013 9:51:51 PM | message detail
If Draven rallies get killed all day, then I think Sephiroth takes second. He's going to rise like crazy from here, Draven probably does the opposite.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#17 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/10/2013 9:51:57 PM | message detail
I'm much more scared of Mega Man in the finals over Samus/Red, btw.

Mewtwo/Snake/Red is too favorable to Snake, even with a supercharged M2. Samus I think Snake can take. She's looked mortal.

Mega Man... I dunno.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#18 | RockMFR | Posted 9/10/2013 9:51:57 PM | message detail
California flipped to Mewtwo. Wow.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
#19 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2013 9:52:00 PM | message detail
F*** they can get around the deletions by not soliciting votes.

We might have work to do, gents.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#20 | latiasz | Posted 9/10/2013 9:52:26 PM | message detail
latiasz posted...
Alright, everyone look at this thread
http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1m5n46/if_draven_wins_the_gamefaqs_contest_riot_make_a/

The mod made it but had to delete it because someone posted the poll in the comment section. You know what that means, right?
Also, don't forget to report these threads by message the moderator for vote soliciting.

quoting for visibility.
#21 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:52:30 PM | message detail
veni veni veninas
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
#22 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2013 9:52:37 PM | message detail
ESTUANS INTERIUS IRA VE HEMENTI
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#23 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/10/2013 9:52:37 PM | message detail
#24 | Sorozone | Posted 9/10/2013 9:52:56 PM | message detail
Draven is gonna choke to Sephiroth...isn't he?
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http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#25 | raytan7585 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:52:59 PM | message detail
LOL SEPHY CUT!
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baUY9LFlYh0 - KokorokokoroKOKOROkokoROKokoro-chan iu na
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/raytan7585
#26 | Xuxon | Posted 9/10/2013 9:53:08 PM | message detail
From: RockMFR | Posted: 9/11/2013 12:47:31 AM | #487
It's amazing. An hour ago, it looked like Mega Man was totally screwed. Now it is not absolutely crazy to speculate that he could win this whole thing.

that's the main reason why it would have been so crushing if he lost and why it was so great that he won. say things were going basically like a normal contest and he had a match against Link next round. i wouldn't have been nearly so invested in him winning.
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http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif
#27 | xp1337 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:53:22 PM | message detail
The Sephiroth comeback...

starts now
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#28 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/10/2013 9:53:23 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm much more scared of Mega Man in the finals over Samus/Red, btw.

Mewtwo/Snake/Red is too favorable to Snake, even with a supercharged M2. Samus I think Snake can take. She's looked mortal.

Mega Man... I dunno.


Mewtwo/Snake/MM would be an amazing match, IMO. All three characters have a legit chance to win.

Or even Sabotaged-Draven/Snake/MM.
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
#29 | latiasz | Posted 9/10/2013 9:53:27 PM | message detail
latiasz posted...
Alright, everyone look at this thread
http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1m5n46/if_draven_wins_the_gamefaqs_contest_riot_make_a/

The mod made it but had to delete it because someone posted the poll in the comment section. You know what that means, right?
Also, don't forget to report these threads by message the moderator for vote soliciting.

everyone read this please
#30 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2013 9:53:28 PM | message detail
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5st0b3ln5U
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#31 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2013 9:53:39 PM | message detail
Sephiroth cut Draven!?
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#32 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:53:46 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm much more scared of Mega Man in the finals over Samus/Red, btw.

Mewtwo/Snake/Red is too favorable to Snake, even with a supercharged M2. Samus I think Snake can take. She's looked mortal.

Mega Man... I dunno.


Let's be fair here.

If this votal increase is remotely significant (I mean, there's a ton of rallying here, but if they add 30,000 votes (fairly reasonable), that's increasing the voter pool by over 50%), then there is no combination involving characters of elite strength where I feel safe.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#33 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:53:54 PM | message detail
VENI VENI VENIAS
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#34 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/10/2013 9:54:03 PM | message detail
l m a o Draven
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#35 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2013 9:54:06 PM | message detail
latiasz posted...
latiasz posted...
Alright, everyone look at this thread
http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1m5n46/if_draven_wins_the_gamefaqs_contest_riot_make_a/

The mod made it but had to delete it because someone posted the poll in the comment section. You know what that means, right?
Also, don't forget to report these threads by message the moderator for vote soliciting.

everyone read this please


posting this.

if they start getting around it we have to post the poll link. Can they ban our reddit accounts for that? Sure but we can make new ones if we have to.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#36 | ZFS | Posted 9/10/2013 9:54:13 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
The Sephiroth comeback...

starts now


Best possible result
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#37 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:54:20 PM | message detail
Draven Votes per update
663
659
581
417
263
238
188
186
147
145
#38 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/10/2013 9:54:38 PM | message detail
Mewtwo/Snake/Mega Man is by far the fairest final.

I'd love to see it.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#39 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2013 9:55:52 PM | message detail
Don't piss off the mods by spamming links in their topics. They're bizarre allies right now, we don't want them to allow rally threads unchecked. Given the lawlessness so far (allowing the threads in Rounds 1, 2 and most of 3), I'm not sure it'll take much to persuade them to simply stop deleting for a little while.

We have to be cautious and play this one right.
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#40 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/10/2013 9:55:58 PM | message detail
IM CALLING YOU OUT, MODS (self.leagueoflegends)

submitted 38 seconds ago by BetterNerfIrelia32

At least give us a reason as to why you're deleting the rally threads. Were not breaking the rules at all.

If this thread is deleted, it proves that the mods are being paid off by Mewtwo supporters. It's the only explanation.


Can we start using the word butthurt yet? It's okay if it's directed at reddit people, right?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#41 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/10/2013 9:56:01 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: RockMFR | Posted: 9/11/2013 12:47:31 AM | #487
It's amazing. An hour ago, it looked like Mega Man was totally screwed. Now it is not absolutely crazy to speculate that he could win this whole thing.

that's the main reason why it would have been so crushing if he lost and why it was so great that he won. say things were going basically like a normal contest and he had a match against Link next round. i wouldn't have been nearly so invested in him winning.


Yeah, this bigtime. MM winning is like The Dude...he's the only semi-sane man in a totally insane world. We finally have someone to relate to in this contest.

And winning like he did? Not only winning a close match over Pokemon on the LAST update while also exorcising his own personal SFF demons????

Doesn't get much better than that. Hell I've never even rooted for him before 2 hours ago and now I love him.
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
#42 | xp1337 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:56:23 PM | message detail
Sephiroth in second would net me a -162.

Can I go from leaderboard in R2 (and maybe R3, can't recall) to finishing with negative points by the end of the contest? It's happening!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#43 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:56:30 PM | message detail
I should say 'outside of the obvious'. Mario isn't beating Link, Seph beating Cloud, etc. any time soon.

But those votals could shift pretty much any non-SFF situation, and I have no goddamn clue where they go.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#44 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2013 9:56:33 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
IM CALLING YOU OUT, MODS (self.leagueoflegends)

submitted 38 seconds ago by BetterNerfIrelia32

At least give us a reason as to why you're deleting the rally threads. Were not breaking the rules at all.

If this thread is deleted, it proves that the mods are being paid off by Mewtwo supporters. It's the only explanation.


Can we start using the word butthurt yet? It's okay if it's directed at reddit people, right?


:)

:)

:)
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#45 | hylianknight3 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:56:49 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm pretty happy with the leagueoflegends mods this time around! Would hate to unnecessarily provoke them...
#46 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2013 9:56:56 PM | message detail
If this thread is deleted, it proves that the mods are being paid off by Mewtwo supporters. It's the only explanation.


Ho-lee crap.
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#47 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 9:57:18 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
IM CALLING YOU OUT, MODS (self.leagueoflegends)

submitted 38 seconds ago by BetterNerfIrelia32

At least give us a reason as to why you're deleting the rally threads. Were not breaking the rules at all.

If this thread is deleted, it proves that the mods are being paid off by Mewtwo supporters. It's the only explanation.


Can we start using the word butthurt yet? It's okay if it's directed at reddit people, right?


Yeah we are totally bribing them with 40$ pre paid RP cards!
oh wait..
#48 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2013 9:57:30 PM | message detail
But yeah guys we're the ones that care so much and we're all super nerdvirgin Nintendo fanboys.

;) ;) ;) ;)
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#49 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/10/2013 9:57:30 PM | message detail
Oh I don't feel safe with any of these f***ers. Even Pikachu/Squirtle.

But no matter the votal level, Samus hasn't been worth more than 53% on Snake at the most since he vauled into the elite tier of the Noble Nine. And he's got the edge on her in recent contests. I can quantify that threat to a degree.

Mega Man is coming completely out of nowhere, and I wouldn't be too surprised to see him just completely smash Samus in two days in a worst case scenario for her (and Snake!). He has not showed a single iota of weakness.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#50 | gearofages | Posted 9/10/2013 9:57:44 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Don't piss off the mods by spamming links in their topics. They're bizarre allies right now, we don't want them to allow rally threads unchecked. Given the lawlessness so far (allowing the threads in Rounds 1, 2 and most of 3), I'm not sure it'll take much to persuade them to simply stop deleting for a little while.

We have to be cautious and play this one right.


Yes. This is everything we could have asked for.