Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1165

#1 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:34:04 PM | message detail | (edited)
WHAT AM I FIGHTING FOOOOOOOOORRRRR?

Draven makin' an exit!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
#2 | LinkFTMFW | Posted 9/10/2013 12:30:57 PM | message detail
Sephiroth/Solid Snake/Samus

BA finals imo.
#3 | Nanis23 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 12:33:00 PM | message detail
Actually should have put something about Draven/Mewtwo/Sephiroth
Because this match is so boring and unless Mega Man decides to do something crazy,we won't reach the third page until the next match starts
#4 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:34:44 PM | message detail
http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/search?q=draven&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all

The mods sure are doing a good job cleaning up those Draven rallies yup yup

Only two Draven rallies in the top 60

Mewtwo wins, it's over
---
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#5 | Nanis23 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 12:35:20 PM | message detail
Oh my god
It starts? so early?
#6 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:37:38 PM | message detail
If there is no risk of Draven losing to Mewtwo, I can go ahead and vote for Sephiroth and rage against Draven in peace of mind.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#7 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2013 12:39:01 PM | message detail
Ack, dammit. Guess it's over - best hope was hard policing by the Reddit mods.
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#8 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/10/2013 12:40:30 PM | message detail
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/search?q=draven&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all

The mods sure are doing a good job cleaning up those Draven rallies yup yup

Only two Draven rallies in the top 60

Mewtwo wins, it's over


lol did you actually think that Draven wouldn't get his rallies? If you believed that, I'm totally sorry xD
---
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"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#9 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:44:43 PM | message detail
I saw a Draven rally earlier that linked to directly to the poll and it was literally deleted in two minutes. I can't believe how easy it is to fool the mods.
---
Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#10 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2013 12:47:54 PM | message detail
I think we all expected a rallied Draven tonight, but there was a chance his Reddit rally would be suppressed. Guess not.
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#11 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:48:01 PM | message detail
AND ALL OF A SUDDEN THE RALLIES ARE GONE
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#12 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/10/2013 12:50:03 PM | message detail
Prepare yourselves for extreme inconsistency on the LoL subreddit tomorrow n_n
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#13 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2013 12:50:11 PM | message detail
Ooh. There's still one there though.
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#14 | wedgeskywalker9 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:54:46 PM | message detail
I only see a new little baby rally with no upboats
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#15 | jtwo22 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:54:52 PM | message detail
Let's not pretend. Draven is the huge favorite/expected to win. He'll get his rally.
That's why I hope Mewtwo does well. To not make this match a complete snooze fest.
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#16 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:56:00 PM | message detail
Man Charizard shall lose. I hope next round Red advance but I can't see that happening.
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#17 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:00:33 PM | message detail
What's worse than one character beating Link? Two characters beating Link. That's why I want Mewtwo to be utterly crushed. If Sephiroth isn't up to it, then I welcome Draven and his hordes of redditors to get the job done and make sure no one else can be ranked above Link this year.
---
2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#18 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2013 1:21:51 PM | message detail
You want everlasting peace? I've got it right here.

Oh wait, this isn't Snake.
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"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
#19 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/10/2013 1:21:56 PM | message detail
432. LOL

I wonder what that's equivalent to, if adjusted to 2007ish votals? 800-900 or something like that?
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
#20 | Nanis23 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 1:22:06 PM | message detail
Big Battle Network thread on /v/? argh how did I miss this
Most underrated series ever

Anyway I don't get what is happening,MM had crazy cuts out of nowhere and that was before that /v/ rally (that doesn't do anything) so uh..what?
#21 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/10/2013 1:22:37 PM | message detail
Micro-ASV is taking its toll. Mega Man having a real hard time fighting back right now.

Maybe he can put something together when Europe goes to sleep but I doubt it.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#22 | pjbasis | Posted 9/10/2013 1:23:14 PM | message detail
I want a no pokemon final so let's go Sephiroth or Draven
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#23 | Nanis23 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 1:23:20 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
What's worse than one character beating Link? Two characters beating Link. That's why I want Mewtwo to be utterly crushed. If Sephiroth isn't up to it, then I welcome Draven and his hordes of redditors to get the job done and make sure no one else can be ranked above Link this year.


I don't understand your logic
The entire bracket will be below Jak and Chie in the xstats,it holds no value whatsoever this contest
#24 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/10/2013 1:23:22 PM | message detail
Also, go mega man!
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
#25 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:24:01 PM | message detail
What happened? A while ago the lead was around 350. Is there a rally?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#26 | Nanis23 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 1:26:22 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
What happened? A while ago the lead was around 350. Is there a rally?


If anything,it was a MM rally and now it died and Charizard is winning updates with neutral strength
There are no Charizard rallies anywhere
#27 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:27:15 PM | message detail
50 vote swings? Most likely just variance.
---
2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#28 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:27:48 PM | message detail
The mods can try all they want, but Reddit users care too much about GameFAQs contests to stop
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 146/234 Today's Pick: Mega Man
#29 | Nanis23 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 1:30:44 PM | message detail | (edited)
Julian_Caesar posted...
432. LOL

I wonder what that's equivalent to, if adjusted to 2007ish votals? 800-900 or something like that?


It still got nothing on the biggest update in this contest (and I believe the biggest update ever)
Draven pulled 824 vote update against X and Ryu
#30 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:32:47 PM | message detail
Biggest update ever is the first update of the 2007 final. L-Block led Link by 825 after 5 minutes, and led Cloud by nearly 1000.

L-Block 1349
Link 524
Cloud 378
Snake 202
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#31 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/10/2013 1:33:12 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
What happened? A while ago the lead was around 350. Is there a rally?


Charizard dipped for a few updates.
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#32 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/10/2013 1:34:10 PM | message detail
aw yeah one of the 202
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#33 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:34:23 PM | message detail
824 vote update? Are you sure?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#34 | Nanis23 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 1:34:36 PM | message detail
Well you could say that the first 5 minutes considers an "update"
But it doesn't matter because even if they don't,looks like L-Block next update got 940 votes..so..wow
#35 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/10/2013 1:34:56 PM | message detail
Megaman has a 4% advantage in America too.

Damn you Europe
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#36 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2013 1:35:01 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
aw yeah one of the 202


^5
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#37 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/10/2013 1:36:13 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Julian_Caesar posted...
432. LOL

I wonder what that's equivalent to, if adjusted to 2007ish votals? 800-900 or something like that?


It still got nothing on the biggest update in this contest (and I believe the biggest update ever)
Draven pulled 824 vote update against X and Ryu


I don't trust any numbers from that match. Votals analysis made it pretty clear that something fishy went on in R2 to an extent not seen in R1 or R3 for Draven. What was his best update from either of those?
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
#38 | Averia | Posted 9/10/2013 1:36:53 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
The mods can try all they want, but Reddit users care too much about GameFAQs contests to stop


No, I'm sure the vast majority of them just vote after seeing the rally, it takes 10 secondes and they forget about it, just preventing direct linking will probably stop a lot of them.
#39 | Nanis23 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 1:40:42 PM | message detail
Julian_Caesar posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Julian_Caesar posted...
432. LOL

I wonder what that's equivalent to, if adjusted to 2007ish votals? 800-900 or something like that?


It still got nothing on the biggest update in this contest (and I believe the biggest update ever)
Draven pulled 824 vote update against X and Ryu


I don't trust any numbers from that match. Votals analysis made it pretty clear that something fishy went on in R2 to an extent not seen in R1 or R3 for Draven. What was his best update from either of those?


175 in R1
in R3 he got 910 after the first freeze,606 after the second
And after the power hour ended his peak was 412
#40 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:50:32 PM | message detail | (edited)
The Legend of Zelda's first update in the Series Contest finals comes very close to that L-Block update, with 1277. It was 1v1 of course.

OOT vs. FFVII 1v1 got similar votals and might also be a contender, but we don't have the updates for the first 6 hours of the match because it was a bonus poll and creative's updater wasn't expecting it. Unless Luster or someone has them.
---
2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#41 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2013 1:45:53 PM | message detail
First update for FFVII/OOT was

OoT - 1191 (58.99%)
FFVII - 828 (41.01%)
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#42 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:46:13 PM | message detail
No, I'm sure the vast majority of them just vote after seeing the rally, it takes 10 secondes and they forget about it, just preventing direct linking will probably stop a lot of them.

It's the loud few you have to be worried about, they'll be trying all day and given what we saw last round the mods seem to be a bit divided with some looking the other way.
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Points: 146/234 Today's Pick: Mega Man
#43 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:50:02 PM | message detail
Just found a new record: The Legend of Zelda had an astounding 1601 votes at the 5 minute mark against Metroid. I guess that's the power of being at 84%.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#44 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:51:33 PM | message detail
I can honestly see tomorrow's match going either way. We're definitely going to see a weaker Draven, but Mewtwo/Sephiroth isn't as ideal a duo as Link/Shepard and we all know how desperate some of those LoL fans are. It's mainly up to the Reddit mods to really crack down on the rallies, even the stealth ones (i.e. "Riot should do X if Draven wins"), and I'm not sure how far they're going to go.
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#45 | Averia | Posted 9/10/2013 1:55:01 PM | message detail
The things is even if the die hard fans only manage to get rallies for a few hours (when the mods on are not caring about), it might be enough to give Draven a big enough lead.
Mewtwo and Sephiroth are not Link and they will be sharing their votes.
#46 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/10/2013 1:55:23 PM | message detail
Draven only needs a fraction of what showed up against Link to win, never mind his Ultimate Draven form from X/Ryu. Ambivalent mods won't cut it - you're gonna need mods cracking down on the threads consistently all day. Not gonna happen.
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#47 | anondum | Posted 9/10/2013 1:59:45 PM | message detail
charizard can barely beat mega man with zero in the poll? pfff

squirtle > charizard confirmed
#48 | SuperAngelo128 | Posted 9/10/2013 2:00:13 PM | message detail
OrangeCrush980 posted...
I can honestly see tomorrow's match going either way. We're definitely going to see a weaker Draven, but Mewtwo/Sephiroth isn't as ideal a duo as Link/Shepard and we all know how desperate some of those LoL fans are. It's mainly up to the Reddit mods to really crack down on the rallies, even the stealth ones (i.e. "Riot should do X if Draven wins"), and I'm not sure how far they're going to go.


LoL fans are the "desperate" ones eh
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#49 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/10/2013 2:00:15 PM | message detail
Mewtwo has PokemonFAQs and rallying power, so he isn't a complete pushover. Sephiroth is an issue though, as much as people hated on Shepard he was really one of the best 3rd wheels that Link could've asked for.
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#50 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/10/2013 2:01:39 PM | message detail
SuperAngelo128 posted...
OrangeCrush980 posted...
I can honestly see tomorrow's match going either way. We're definitely going to see a weaker Draven, but Mewtwo/Sephiroth isn't as ideal a duo as Link/Shepard and we all know how desperate some of those LoL fans are. It's mainly up to the Reddit mods to really crack down on the rallies, even the stealth ones (i.e. "Riot should do X if Draven wins"), and I'm not sure how far they're going to go.


LoL fans are the "desperate" ones eh


There was that rally thread where the TC gave out $10 gift certificates to 4 people who bumped the thread
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"That choke point bridge in Chapter 2 completely changed my strategy as well as my views on life." - WestbrickIII