Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1164

#251 | xp1337 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:07:32 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: _SecretSquirrel | Posted: 9/10/2013 2:04:39 AM | #244
Not to worry, there will be no pluckier underdog in the next match than...Sephiroth.

Now that's a sentence said by no one ever, until THIS CONTEST.

Seph was always the plucky underdog going into this match, it was supposed to be against Link

The Sonic division winner would have had a pretty good case there!
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#252 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:08:11 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Where were these ralliers in Mario/Charizard 2010? Mario only won by 5500; that could have been swung with the numbers the ralliers put up against Cloud. And it would have been a genuinely shocking upset!


What makes you think Charizard wasn't rallied in that match?

After all, he got within 5500 votes!
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#253 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:09:54 PM | message detail
Europe is about to ruin yet another match. Do you remember 56-54-52-51-43-41? I do! Those will be the numbers I mutter to myself in old age and delirium..
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10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#254 | tgs2 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:10:12 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
Also, wasn't Sephiroth the underdog going into his match with Snake in 2010 after his pisspoor performance against Tifa? I can't remember.


Yes although people held out hope that Squall could embarrass Snake, but he didn't.
#255 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:11:46 PM | message detail
Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Mario are never underdogs. Somehow Mario even manages to avoid being seen as an underdog when he faces Link, even though he's done it like 7 times and never broken 38%.
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10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#256 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:13:25 PM | message detail | (edited)
tgs2 posted...
paulg235 posted...
Also, wasn't Sephiroth the underdog going into his match with Snake in 2010 after his pisspoor performance against Tifa? I can't remember.


Yes although people held out hope that Squall could embarrass Snake, but he didn't.


No, Sephiroth was the favorite on match day. Oracle Expectations were an average of Sephiroth with 51.23%, 47 favoring Sephiroth and 26 favoring Snake.

Edit: Also Snake/Squall came before Sephiroth/Tifa.
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#257 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/9/2013 11:11:54 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Where were these ralliers in Mario/Charizard 2010? Mario only won by 5500; that could have been swung with the numbers the ralliers put up against Cloud. And it would have been a genuinely shocking upset!


Mario/Zard got like 20,000 votes more than any match this contest not involving Draven. These crappy votals make the rallies vastly more effective.
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#258 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:13:03 PM | message detail
Yes, but the difference between Mario and Charizard was only 5556. They were naturally close already. Unless, as KH theorizes, Charizard was rallied in the match, and that is why it was so close.
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10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#259 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/9/2013 11:14:09 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: _SecretSquirrel | Posted: 9/10/2013 2:04:39 AM | #244
Not to worry, there will be no pluckier underdog in the next match than...Sephiroth.

Now that's a sentence said by no one ever, until THIS CONTEST.

Seph was always the plucky underdog going into this match, it was supposed to be against Link


He'd be an underdog, but he sure wouldn't be plucky. Now, the Sonic division winner would have lots of pluck.
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#260 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:14:40 PM | message detail
And Crono is the greatest underdog in the history of these contests. Although his underdog status has been blunted by his Noble Nine status once that was solidified as a major thing in 2004-5.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#261 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:16:56 PM | message detail
One-Winged Angel is the perfect theme song for the underdog's opponent. The entity who is about to blast you with overwhelming force. On Gamefaqs, it could be called "Link's Theme."
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#262 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:17:36 PM | message detail
Welcome to the League of Underdogs.
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#263 | xp1337 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:19:51 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
And Crono is the greatest underdog in the history of these contests. Although his underdog status has been blunted by his Noble Nine status once that was solidified as a major thing in 2004-5.

He regained it after 2007!
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#264 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:20:12 PM | message detail
Crono's Brilliant Plan for Contest Victory:

1. Resign from the Noble Nine.
2. Restore his old status as an underdog.
3. Victory!
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#265 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/9/2013 11:22:06 PM | message detail
I'm taking Mega Man > Samus with ease if he can get through this one.
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#266 | tgs2 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:24:21 PM | message detail
Zero might break 20%. Early most impressive result of the match if it happens.
#267 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:25:02 PM | message detail
If we're talking 1v1, I'd be afraid of the core Nintendo fanbase falling in line and supporting Samus by huge margins, giving her the match.

With Red......the problem is Pokemon isn't that closely tied to mainline Nintendo. 'Tis interesting.
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10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#268 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:26:13 PM | message detail
Indeed, Mega Man having the strength to beat a Pokemon in a close match while leeched would imply that he could tackle Samus.

But there's a psychological barrier there, too. Samus gets a Link-lite aura against anyone that isn't Link or Mario. Mega Man hasn't beaten a Noble Niner in eight years.

And it was Sonic.
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#269 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 11:29:03 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Indeed, Mega Man having the strength to beat a Pokemon in a close match while leeched would imply that he could tackle Samus.

But there's a psychological barrier there, too. Samus gets a Link-lite aura against anyone that isn't Link or Mario. Mega Man hasn't beaten a Noble Niner in eight years.

And it was Sonic.


I firmly believe Samus takes out the trash in that match (if Rock couldn't do it with his goddamn NES sprite against NES Samus, what chance will he ever have in the freeform round?) and yet...just how closely tied to Nintendo IS Mega Man? That's what the match comes down to. Not how strong Rock is, not how much Red leeches - it's all about whether Samus can bring down the SFF hammer on him or not, and use that to score an easy win.
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#270 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:33:44 PM | message detail
Nintendo is not a monolith, as the 2009 Games Contest shows. NES/SNES Nintendo games exhibit little LFF/SFF with each other, while for N64 and GC games it is massive. Megaman probably overlaps quite tightly with NES/SNES Nintendo, and is almost independent of later Nintendo.
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10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#271 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:36:25 PM | message detail
I would really like Mega Man there. This would be a very impressive win to score over Charizard if he could seize it. Samus did not have a very impressive win over Tifa. Even if you assume Samus could undercut a SSB4 hype thing that's happening here, she likely can't kick the legs out from 100% of it. Leaving enough to give MM the win.
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#272 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/9/2013 11:36:29 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
And Crono is the greatest underdog in the history of these contests. Although his underdog status has been blunted by his Noble Nine status once that was solidified as a major thing in 2004-5.


Hmm, Mega Man isn't doing that much better than Crono did in almost the exact same situation. You could almost say that this result is good for Crono's chances!
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#273 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:37:21 PM | message detail
Well yeah. Crono and Megaman have always been close. Every single year without exception.
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#274 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/9/2013 11:39:26 PM | message detail
I'm wary of picking anything somewhat associated with Nintendo over Samus that isn't Link/Mario.

And yes that even extends to Snake. I'd pick him but I'd be nervous the entire time.
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#275 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/9/2013 11:39:41 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
I'm taking Mega Man > Samus with ease if he can get through this one.


Lol no way.
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#276 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:40:23 PM | message detail
Whatever happened in Mario/Megaman, Samus just needs that to happen again. She's not Mario, but if there's any fanbase that does operate as a hivemind based on hierarchies, it's Nintendo. Square fans will argue with each other for decades about which character is better while Nintendo fans are marching through the snow to vote for the straight Nintendo ticket on election day.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#277 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:42:21 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Whatever happened in Mario/Megaman, Samus just needs that to happen again. She's not Mario, but if there's any fanbase that does operate as a hivemind based on hierarchies, it's Nintendo. Square fans will argue with each other for decades about which character is better while Nintendo fans are marching through the snow to vote for the straight Nintendo ticket on election day.


What she really can't have is Red getting bandwagoned to first over both in the opening minutes and Mega Man happening to be closer than she is to him in that timeframe.

Then it's abandonment issues all the way for Miss Aran like THE BABY
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#278 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/9/2013 11:42:36 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I would really like Mega Man there. This would be a very impressive win to score over Charizard if he could seize it. Samus did not have a very impressive win over Tifa. Even if you assume Samus could undercut a SSB4 hype thing that's happening here, she likely can't kick the legs out from 100% of it. Leaving enough to give MM the win.


Not this underperformance against tifa crap again. She didnt underperform. She had that garbage block to contend with. Samus would sff mega man a lot now. 1v1 would favour Samus a lot. Also people need to stop overrating Zard.
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#279 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:44:01 PM | message detail
Yuri_LowelI posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I would really like Mega Man there. This would be a very impressive win to score over Charizard if he could seize it. Samus did not have a very impressive win over Tifa. Even if you assume Samus could undercut a SSB4 hype thing that's happening here, she likely can't kick the legs out from 100% of it. Leaving enough to give MM the win.


Not this underperformance against tifa crap again. She didnt underperform. She had that garbage block to contend with. Samus would sff mega man a lot now. 1v1 would favour Samus a lot. Also people need to stop overrating Zard.


Yep, 24 hours later, this is still indecipherable.
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#280 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:45:29 PM | message detail
After seeing Cloud/Squirtle, if Red is in first early on in the match it's over. Rallies are powerful enough to overcome the very greatest of our natural trends. And the greatest, biggest, natural trend shift has always been FFVII's rise after its abysmal early vote.

Unless the votals spike up towards Link/Draven levels or something.
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10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#281 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:46:39 PM | message detail
Well I'm not denying that.

I'm just saying Samus would be hard-pressed not to come in third if it happened!
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#282 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 11:47:52 PM | message detail
On a differen note, goddammit, Zero. Rock's percentage shifts were pretty much exclusively coming from him going up or down. Just fold already! What the hell are you fighting for?!
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#283 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:51:03 PM | message detail
MM fans not as well organized as Nintendo fans I see. Nintendo fans are even able to fall in line in real time, as the match progresses! See Pikachu/Blue.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#284 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/9/2013 11:52:35 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Europe is about to ruin yet another match. Do you remember 56-54-52-51-43-41? I do! Those will be the numbers I mutter to myself in old age and delirium..


America is the only country rallying for Pokemon and othe jokes like l block.
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#285 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:53:36 PM | message detail
And heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere comes Europe~
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#286 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/9/2013 11:54:34 PM | message detail
I wouldn't compare Cloud Squirtle Leon to a potential Samus Red MM. Squirtle being the only Nintendo option is very different than 3-way Nintendo.
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#287 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:55:19 PM | message detail
I'm so disappointed by GetMeOffTheMoon facebook page
You would think that for a page that wants to show Capcom the fans care about Mega Man they would help with this poll..but no they ignored me
Cool
#288 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:57:32 PM | message detail
as we enter the third hour

like the clockworkiest clockwork
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#289 | ZFS | Posted 9/9/2013 11:57:57 PM | message detail
Zero needs to lose 1-2%.
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#290 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:58:56 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Zero needs to lose 1-2%.


Europe could do it. But I doubt they'd be much kinder to Mega Man!
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#291 | GoaFan77 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:59:04 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
I'm wary of picking anything somewhat associated with Nintendo over Samus that isn't Link/Mario.

And yes that even extends to Snake. I'd pick him but I'd be nervous the entire time.


Samus did beat out Snake for her only championship win thus far. By a very narrow margin though, and if anything Snake has probably strengthened a bit. Of course even if both of them make it to the finals this round, Draven or Mewtwo will probably take it all the way.
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#292 | ZFS | Posted 9/9/2013 11:59:04 PM | message detail
About the only thing positive in a Charizard win here is that Samus will cruise to the final.
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#293 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/10/2013 12:00:54 AM | message detail
Europe waking up!
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nt
#294 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/10/2013 12:04:16 AM | message detail
Samus is now the strongest Nintendo character left. There's no sff either so she will beat any Pokemon rallied or Unrallied.
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#295 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:07:38 AM | message detail
This is the last match with a Pokemon advancing (unless Mewtwo pulls a miracle) so hopefully people will stop complaining now!

Also the fact that /vp/ is so sick of this contest and deleted the Charizard rally and the whole internet is sick of it as well...yet LoL subreddit is so happy to have Draven Days...this is stupid
#296 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/10/2013 12:08:02 AM | message detail
As expected, Europe putting the match away. Time to check out!
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#297 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:08:19 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I'm so disappointed by GetMeOffTheMoon facebook page
You would think that for a page that wants to show Capcom the fans care about Mega Man they would help with this poll..but no they ignored me
Cool


lol that's me who posted above you

Wait til whoever admins that group sees our posts and posts the poll to the main page.
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#298 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/10/2013 12:16:10 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
ZFS posted...
Zero needs to lose 1-2%.


Europe could do it. But I doubt they'd be much kinder to Mega Man!


Yeah, Europe will bury Mega Man.
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#299 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:16:41 AM | message detail
The Owner of FF9 posted...
Nanis23 posted...
I'm so disappointed by GetMeOffTheMoon facebook page
You would think that for a page that wants to show Capcom the fans care about Mega Man they would help with this poll..but no they ignored me
Cool


lol that's me who posted above you

Wait til whoever admins that group sees our posts and posts the poll to the main page.


No I didn't post there
I ****ing sent a message to the admin and I was ignored
It was 3 days ago so it's not like he didn't read it yet!!
#300 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:20:14 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
This is the last match with a Pokemon advancing (unless Mewtwo pulls a miracle) so hopefully people will stop complaining now!

Also the fact that /vp/ is so sick of this contest and deleted the Charizard rally and the whole internet is sick of it as well...yet LoL subreddit is so happy to have Draven Days...this is stupid


once a loser, always a loser