Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1164

#201 | GoaFan77 | Posted 9/9/2013 10:10:36 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
In what world do people live in where almost all of Zero's votes don't go straight to Mega Man?


Even if megaman was against a character I didn't like, I'd still vote Zero over normal MM. Of course I played MegamanX before any of the originals.
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#202 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 10:11:07 PM | message detail
Wow Megaman. Great show tonight. I know the trends are against MM and the ralliers will likely be against him too, but great show. Unless the ralliers decide to let Charizard die to improve Red's chances next round. But given how relatively unimpressive Red and Charizard have looked compared to Squirtle, Pikachu, and Mewtwo, I'm not sure Red can pull it off even with MM and Samus splitting votes. I mean, surely Samus isn't as bad for MM as Zero.
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#203 | ZFS | Posted 9/9/2013 10:11:28 PM | message detail
Mega Man is very popular with Nintendo fans, too. The vast majority of Zero's votes are going to MM. Charizard isn't picking up 40% of those votes.
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#204 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/9/2013 10:12:07 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Mega Man is very popular with Nintendo fans, too. The vast majority of Zero's votes are going to MM. Charizard isn't picking up 40% of those votes.


Maybe not, but at least 30% imo. Not just 15%.
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#205 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2013 10:13:41 PM | message detail
25% of Zero's votes going to Charizard is a very high estimate. Pokemon has proven itself to be very unique from other franchises, which is part of why it's doing so strong in this sort of format. It also means that, when obvious LFF anchors are removed, those votes are going straight to the same-series guy and not the Pokemon.
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#206 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 10:13:50 PM | message detail
I'd hazard a guess of 20%. 30% is relatively weak LFF- like the kind you'd see between Luigi and Ganondorf, characters from different series with broad fanbases.
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#207 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/9/2013 10:13:59 PM | message detail
Clearly all the badass votes would go to Charizard.
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#208 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/9/2013 10:16:44 PM | message detail
Zard taking it back. Taking it all back. Goooooooo.
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#209 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/9/2013 10:16:55 PM | message detail
Zero sucking up all of Megaman's percent now
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#210 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/9/2013 10:20:37 PM | message detail
Typical stats topic over-reaction. MM > Cloud for sure! Never mind that these are 3-ways and Squirtle was the beneficiary of a sizeable rally.

Also 40-41% is some sort of sweet spot for Pokémon...
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#211 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 9/9/2013 10:27:08 PM | message detail
I'm on the leaderboard for Expert 0_o

If only I had cared about that **** from the beginning.

...

COME ON MEGA MAN
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#212 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 10:27:39 PM | message detail
Mega Man/Zero overlap is heavy. Ridiculously heavy. 80/20 in most scenarios. Even if you want to count Charizard as Nintendo and decreasing that overlap, no way it diminishes to less than 70/30.

Which means the best case scenario for Charizard is Mega Man beating him with 53.5%+ in a 1v1 match, with very favorable overlap postulating. My estimates put it closer to 55.5%+.
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#213 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/9/2013 10:30:35 PM | message detail
Wow, Charizard might actually lose this. Is this a good contest or bad contest for Pokemon?
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#214 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/9/2013 10:30:37 PM | message detail
Go Zard. Hopefully 4chan would do the right thing and back Charizard here.
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#215 | Rymari | Posted 9/9/2013 10:30:49 PM | message detail
This sucks
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#216 | yoyoyoyrlozer | Posted 9/9/2013 10:31:49 PM | message detail
I seem to be back on the leaderboard for the regular bracket. Too bad all three of my finals picks are already eliminated xd
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#217 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 10:31:59 PM | message detail
Mega Man has no chance, sadly. We've got one and a half hours before he falls off a cliff with typical MM trends. Charizard's day vote will kill him.
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#218 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/9/2013 10:33:16 PM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
Wow, Charizard might actually lose this. Is this a good contest or bad contest for Pokemon?


I don't know how you could say it's a bad contest for Pokemon. Mewtwo, Squirtle, and Pikachu pulled some crazy upsets even if Char loses this one.
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#219 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2013 10:33:57 PM | message detail
Charizard's morning vote will kill him. The day shouldn't be too bad, then Mega Man should handily win the SNV. These trends will be similar to Sonic/MM. I just don't think the SNV will be enough to recover from the morning.
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#220 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 10:44:06 PM | message detail
So, pretend like Mega Man's not going to lose a close match against a rallied Pokemon. Just pretend with me for a second.

Samus/Red/Mega Man. Can Mega Man win over Samus?
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#221 | ninkendo | Posted 9/9/2013 10:44:36 PM | message detail
#222 | ninkendo | Posted 9/9/2013 10:45:46 PM | message detail
#223 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/9/2013 10:46:02 PM | message detail
Large Mega Man cut.
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#224 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/9/2013 10:46:15 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
So, pretend like Mega Man's not going to lose a close match against a rallied Pokemon. Just pretend with me for a second.

Samus/Red/Mega Man. Can Mega Man win over Samus?


With Mario out of the picture, either result is likely.
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#225 | DashXTrigger | Posted 9/9/2013 10:47:18 PM | message detail
I love all of these guys. I went for megaman becuase without him there would be no Zero. Dam this should have been the final.
#226 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 10:50:33 PM | message detail
Reminder: the last time Mega Man squared off against Samus with a Nintendo entity in the poll, he got 48% on her. In 2007, a pretty mediocre year for him and gangbusters one for Samus..
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#227 | ninkendo | Posted 9/9/2013 10:51:19 PM | message detail
looks like 100,000 strong may finally be kicking in
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#228 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/9/2013 10:51:37 PM | message detail
I hate when you have an awesome upset that's so close to happening but falls just a step short.
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#229 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 10:53:32 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
I hate when you have an awesome upset that's so close to happening but falls just a step short.


what are you talking about, the plucky underdog is winning
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#230 | paulg235 | Posted 9/9/2013 10:56:47 PM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
Then00bAvenger posted...
I hate when you have an awesome upset that's so close to happening but falls just a step short.


what are you talking about, the plucky underdog is winning

Charizard was the favourite going in due to Zero being in the picture. Mega Man was the underdog coming into this match even when the Zard struggled with Zelda. This is supposed to be Mega Man's strongest time and he is only able to go even with him.
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#231 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 10:57:36 PM | message detail
no that doesn't work, Mega Man's not a Pokemon
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#232 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 10:58:56 PM | message detail
*Votes*

*Checks poll*

NOT ALL THE POKEDOMINATION IN THE WORLD

NOT THE BRUTAL LFF

NOT THE BIGGEST ANCHOR THE CONTESTS HAVE EVER SEEN

NONE OF THIS WILL STOP SUPER FIGHTING ROBOT, MEGA MAN! THIS IS THE END OF THE POKEMON!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnsxDku0uR4

C'MON ROCK! TAKE THE DUMB DRAGON OUT! FIGHT, MEGA MAN!! FOR EVERLASTING PEACE!
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#233 | StealThisSheen | Posted 9/9/2013 10:59:32 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
*Votes*

*Checks poll*

NOT ALL THE POKEDOMINATION IN THE WORLD

NOT THE BRUTAL LFF

NOT THE BIGGEST ANCHOR THE CONTESTS HAVE EVER SEEN

NONE OF THIS WILL STOP SUPER FIGHTING ROBOT, MEGA MAN! THIS IS THE END OF THE POKEMON!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnsxDku0uR4

C'MON ROCK! TAKE THE DUMB DRAGON OUT! FIGHT, MEGA MAN!! FOR EVERLASTING PEACE!



Welp. Time to stop supporting Mega Man.
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#234 | Lopen | Posted 9/9/2013 11:00:29 PM | message detail
So who has the edge here ignoring rallyfaqs? Both Mega Man and Charizard are best at the beginning of the poll but who drops more? I wanna say Charizard?
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#235 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 11:00:43 PM | message detail
If you cannot support Mega Man here, you have no soul. NO SOUL! Poor blue bomber has gotten a raw deal every single contest since 2006, and now, THIS IS HIS CHANCE! C'MON ROCK, LET'S GO!
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#236 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 11:01:16 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
So who has the edge here ignoring rallyfaqs? Both Mega Man and Charizard are best at the beginning of the poll but who drops more? I wanna say Charizard?


Charizard for sure. Mega Man is going to die badly in europe, but so will the Zard and pokemon has had joke trends all contest.
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#237 | paulg235 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:03:41 PM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
no that doesn't work, Mega Man's not a Pokemon

Which is why Charizard's the underdog here, because we've seen three instances of pokemon characters winning close matches thanks to rallying. The odds that Charizard will likely catch the rallying if this remains close as the day goes on, which would not good for Mega Man,
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#238 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/9/2013 11:01:52 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Lopen posted...
So who has the edge here ignoring rallyfaqs? Both Mega Man and Charizard are best at the beginning of the poll but who drops more? I wanna say Charizard?


Charizard for sure. Mega Man is going to die badly in europe, but so will the Zard and pokemon has had joke trends all contest.


If Magikarp is anything to go by, Europe sides with Pokemon by default.
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#239 | Lopen | Posted 9/9/2013 11:02:34 PM | message detail
I really hate that this is going to be close enough that pokemon rallies are going to decide it again. I'd rather Mega Man be losing by 1k votes to be honest, if he was going to lose.
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#240 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 11:02:36 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
no that doesn't work, Mega Man's not a Pokemon

Which is why he's the underdog here, because we've seen three instances of pokemon characters winning close matches thanks to rallying. The odds that Charizard will likely catch the rallying if this remains close as the day goes on, which would not good for Mega Man,


--------------> The joke


_o_ <---- Your head
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#241 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:03:11 PM | message detail
Charizard catching rallies will only prove that there is no end to his pluckiness
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#242 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 11:03:55 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I really hate that this is going to be close enough that pokemon rallies are going to decide it again. I'd rather Mega Man be losing by 1k votes to be honest, if he was going to lose.


There's no excuse for Mega Man to lose to rallying here. If there are any heroes left in man, they'll hit up MM's facebook page and Mighty Number 9 to get people to support the blue bomber. Charizard has the bigger rally base, but that doesn't matter if more MM fans decide to show up. All it takes is a small push...!
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#243 | StealThisSheen | Posted 9/9/2013 11:03:58 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
If you cannot support Mega Man here, you have no soul. NO SOUL! Poor blue bomber has gotten a raw deal every single contest since 2006, and now, THIS IS HIS CHANCE! C'MON ROCK, LET'S GO!


And now he's getting an even worse deal thanks to the cancer that is your support!
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#244 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/9/2013 11:04:39 PM | message detail
Not to worry, there will be no pluckier underdog in the next match than...Sephiroth.

Now that's a sentence said by no one ever, until THIS CONTEST.
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#245 | Xuxon | Posted 9/9/2013 11:06:24 PM | message detail
From: _SecretSquirrel | Posted: 9/10/2013 2:04:39 AM | #244
Not to worry, there will be no pluckier underdog in the next match than...Sephiroth.

Now that's a sentence said by no one ever, until THIS CONTEST.

Seph was always the plucky underdog going into this match, it was supposed to be against Link
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#246 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:06:41 PM | message detail
StealThisSheen posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
*Votes*

*Checks poll*

NOT ALL THE POKEDOMINATION IN THE WORLD

NOT THE BRUTAL LFF

NOT THE BIGGEST ANCHOR THE CONTESTS HAVE EVER SEEN

NONE OF THIS WILL STOP SUPER FIGHTING ROBOT, MEGA MAN! THIS IS THE END OF THE POKEMON!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnsxDku0uR4

C'MON ROCK! TAKE THE DUMB DRAGON OUT! FIGHT, MEGA MAN!! FOR EVERLASTING PEACE!



Welp. Time to stop supporting Mega Man.


Or you could ignore Kanz like everyone else?

And stop quoting his posts while you're at it.
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FFIXOwner Bracket: 160/234
Expert: 594 (lol?)
#247 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:07:00 PM | message detail
Where were these ralliers in Mario/Charizard 2010? Mario only won by 5500; that could have been swung with the numbers the ralliers put up against Cloud. And it would have been a genuinely shocking upset!
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#248 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 11:07:19 PM | message detail
One more hour until Mega Man hits a wall of spikes. :(
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#249 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 11:07:21 PM | message detail
StealThisSheen posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
If you cannot support Mega Man here, you have no soul. NO SOUL! Poor blue bomber has gotten a raw deal every single contest since 2006, and now, THIS IS HIS CHANCE! C'MON ROCK, LET'S GO!


And now he's getting an even worse deal thanks to the cancer that is your support!


Bite me! I won't give the better character up! You want to *****. go do so on your own blog!
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#250 | paulg235 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:07:28 PM | message detail
Also, wasn't Sephiroth the underdog going into his match with Snake in 2010 after his pisspoor performance against Tifa? I can't remember.
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