Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1164

#451 | Kinglicious | Posted 9/10/2013 11:05:22 AM | message detail
Curious, how did Zero do in that brief rally stint.
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#452 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/10/2013 11:06:49 AM | message detail
He tanked.
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#453 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/10/2013 11:07:01 AM | message detail
If updates like that keep happening Zero may get a few cuts in on the Zard.
#454 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:07:28 AM | message detail
Just when I thought the rally effect is over and I can calculate how many votes were rallied..a 30 vote cut
Why
#455 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:08:06 AM | message detail
Zero stayed constant, only dropped a couple of points
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 146/234 Today's Pick: Mega Man
#456 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:13:12 AM | message detail
Mega Man actually has a strong SNV. Probably because Europe goes to sleep and all the votes are coming from the Americas.
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#457 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/10/2013 11:14:55 AM | message detail
Ike's peak lead on Proto Man was 480, at 6:04. From then to midnight, Proto Man cut off 300 votes.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#458 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:16:03 AM | message detail
I'd give Mega Man a good chance base off of trends, but Charizard has rallies so it doesn't matter
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 146/234 Today's Pick: Mega Man
#459 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:17:31 AM | message detail | (edited)
Well
Party is over nothing to see here..Charizard gain 5
#460 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:18:42 AM | message detail
The rally started an hour ago. In the last hour, Mega Man has cut 164 votes off Charizard's lead. At this rate, Mega Man takes the lead by 5:00 ET.
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POKEFEAR
#461 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/10/2013 11:19:37 AM | message detail
Not confident in Zard at all.
#462 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/10/2013 11:21:04 AM | message detail
Scarlettail posted...
Not confident in Zard at all.


Why not? Even if MM does somehow get close, Zard has rallies. The only thing that could work in MM's favour is that he is difficult to rally against (unlike, say, Cloud).
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#463 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/10/2013 11:22:07 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
Scarlettail posted...
Not confident in Zard at all.


Why not? Even if MM does somehow get close, Zard has rallies. The only thing that could work in MM's favour is that he is difficult to rally against (unlike, say, Cloud).


I haven't seen any rallies, and Mega Man is not easy to rally against anyway.
#464 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:22:39 AM | message detail
Actually Charizard vote intake is...getting lower
The rally helped for about 5 updates,more cuts after it are actually at about MM average before the rally started
So..Charizard dropped.hard
#465 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:25:44 AM | message detail
IF Charizard loses, can Red win next round?
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#466 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:29:24 AM | message detail
Using the average of 14 updates before the rally started-
Megaman intake-64.2
Charizard-69
Using the average of 10 updates before the rally-
Megaman-64.4
Charizard-69.1
5 updates before the rally-
Megaman-63.8
Charizard-64.6

After the rally posted-
Megaman votes-108,106,83,73,80,71,69

His average raised by 20
Charizard increased by one...Zero...actualy got less votes than he did before the rally..? I don't get it (average of 38.4 pre rally,35 after)

We are looking at about 150 rallied votes more or less
#467 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/10/2013 11:29:27 AM | message detail
Probably not. He's a lot weaker than the top Pokemon like Pikachu and Squirtle.
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#468 | Zylothewolf | Posted 9/10/2013 11:32:45 AM | message detail
U.K must go to sleep so Mega Man can win. Seriously why do they always anti vote Mega Man?
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#469 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2013 11:33:57 AM | message detail
Because Megaman is not a thing here.
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#470 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:34:25 AM | message detail
So the one Pokemon that before the contest was almost sure to advance doesn't and there are other 4 Pokemon characters that advance? Makes sense.
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#471 | Jump_Man7 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:35:11 AM | message detail
Scarlettail posted...
Not confident in Zard at all.


Yeah I'm pretty scared right now
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#472 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/10/2013 11:48:34 AM | message detail
2 latest updates were stall. I still believe Charizard loses. But a small rally will help Charizard. I know this board likes MM but hey...
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#473 | BleedingRed | Posted 9/10/2013 11:58:06 AM | message detail
Go anything other than Pokemon!
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#474 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:09:25 PM | message detail
Meh,I thought that we could see a crazy mega update when that Facebook page posted a rally...but it was just a 108 vote intake

Nothing will ever replicate that 432 votes for Link,the best update of all time
#475 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:11:22 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Meh,I thought that we could see a crazy mega update when that Facebook page posted a rally...but it was just a 108 vote intake

Nothing will ever replicate that 432 votes for Link,the best update of all time


Sephiroth gonna pull 2000+ vote updates in the power hour, believe
#476 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:11:29 PM | message detail
Not everyone is on facebook all the time, Mega Man will still get votes from the link, it'll just be blended in with the regular votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 146/234 Today's Pick: Mega Man
#477 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:11:41 PM | message detail
Charizard hold in there!
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#478 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/10/2013 12:14:23 PM | message detail
Mega Man continues to defy trends, aided by a brief rally on top of that. If he can hold on through this mini-ASV for the next 4 hours or so and not let the vote intake get above... 500, he could seriously have a shot at this.

If y'know bwahahahaha pokeyz
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#479 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:17:15 PM | message detail
Oh yeah
Vivi/Squall/Red match had 2 awesome updates of 78 votes
I thought it was amazing,and I checked if it was the worst update of this contest but it turns out it wasn't

Groose/Lu Bu/Yoshimitsu had an update of 64 votes,and 76 votes
Lenneth/Claptrap/WCC had an update of 68 votes
Samus/L-Block/Tifa had an update of 77 votes

And of course..there were like 30 updates with less than 78 votes in the Caim/Chester/Spring match,and it holds the record of "worst update ever" with 52 votes(9 Chester,11 Spring,32 Caim)
#480 | LinkFTMFW | Posted 9/10/2013 12:19:28 PM | message detail
Its pretty funny how much zero is siphoning here.
#481 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/10/2013 12:19:58 PM | message detail
jtwo22 posted...
Doubt Mewtwo has the lightning rod ability ,but let's look at other Mewtwo contest matches from the past:

Summer 2007 Contest - Division 2 - Fourth Group
Mewtwo Division 2 Round 1 --- 3rd place, 34197 [24.95%] - Ryu, 39754 [36.30%] - Bowser, 39225 [28.62%] - Toad, 13895 [10.14%]

Mewtwo couldn't beat Bowser back then. Even with Toad in the poll.

Winter 2010 Contest - Chaos Division - 12 Seed
Chaos Round 1 --- Lost to (5) Ganondorf, 21606 [41.35%] - 30642 [58.65%]

Seems stronger ,but couldn't beat Ganon.

So. Does your apathy votes theory hold up with Mewtwo 's past matches?


The Sonic/Bowser/Mewtwo match was more a perfect storm of apathy, IMO. Bowser typically gets votes as a Mario proxy, and like Mario, he gets a lot of apathy votes. Sonic gets a lot of his strength of nostalgia, but he also gets some measure of apathy votes ("Well, I don't care about anybody in this poll, so I'm just voting for Sonic, because I know who he is!"), and he also overlaps a lot with Nintendo.

So, you have Sonic and Bowser who both get screwed by Nintendo, who both get a number of apathy votes, and then you have Mewtwo in the middle who is not only Nintendo, but also draws on the same nostalgia teet that Sonic's been sucking dry for the last decade.

lol sadly, I let the crew talk me out of taking that upset, but oh well.
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#482 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/10/2013 12:23:33 PM | message detail
Also, I think this is the second most impressive performance of the contest after Link. Maybe even in absolute terms. Pikachu was barely able to do this with a rally push against a Sora who'd fallen off the map. Mega Man is staying in this against a character who at worst is equal to Zelda, to say nothing of how hard Zero is to SFF.

...Mega Man #2 character?
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#483 | creativename | Posted 9/10/2013 12:23:43 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Mega Man has absolutely destroyed all of Cloud's results this year. It probably wouldn't be close, honestly.

Cloud lost to Squirtle because Squirtle got many thousands of rallied votes.

The rallying power of Pokemon is not something Mega Man can replicate. And I don't think Mega Man can beat Cloud on raw strength.
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#484 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:23:56 PM | message detail
Sonic/Bowser/Mewtwo was perfect storm of apathy also because it came after Link lost to Draven and SCREW THIS CONTEST I DONT CARE ANYMORE

It was pretty funny how Mewtwo dominated the hell out of Sonic and no one talked about it because everyone were talking about Link,Draven,DDOS,Allen,reddit,butthurt,buttfurios,buttmad,butt,butt stallion,etc
#485 | Whupassman | Posted 9/10/2013 12:25:46 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Sonic/Bowser/Mewtwo was perfect storm of apathy also because it came after Link lost to Draven and SCREW THIS CONTEST I DONT CARE ANYMORE

It was pretty funny how Mewtwo dominated the hell out of Sonic and no one talked about it because everyone were talking about Link,Draven,DDOS,Allen,reddit,butthurt,buttfurios,buttmad,butt,butt stallion,etc


In short, that week was Butt 8.
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#486 | Xuxon | Posted 9/10/2013 12:38:23 PM | message detail
#487 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:39:52 PM | message detail
We are not expecting any...sudden change in trends,right?
People said that this match might follow the Sonic/Megaman match of 2005...but this is 8 years ago and im not sure if we can use it?
Anyway,Mega Man went nuts at the 21:30 mark in that match (no idea at what hour that match started)
#488 | Xuxon | Posted 9/10/2013 12:42:07 PM | message detail
that contest was in pacific time, so 21:30 then is a half hour after this match will be over
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#489 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:43:47 PM | message detail
No,I mean
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2125&num=2
Im using this,and it always start counting from 00:00 (it's not like the match started at 12AM..)
And as far as I know it's not possible to see at what hour the match really started
#490 | Zylothewolf | Posted 9/10/2013 12:47:40 PM | message detail
This match will most likely have the same trends as Protoman/Ike.

Charizard's lead is almost the same lead Ike had on Protoman during this time and Ike won with 169 votes.
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#491 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:48:59 PM | message detail
21:30 in that match is 21:30 Pacific Time, which is 00:30 in Eastern Time. GameFAQs poll switched from Pacific to Eastern time in 2006 (upon request of this board, actually).
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#492 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/10/2013 12:50:19 PM | message detail
SBAllen posted...
For tiebreakers I'm at like 52kish and he's at 57kish or something. I'll likely win on that as well.

As for our regular brackets being so close, I finished my bracket well before he did... just sayin'!

I have MM>Charizard>Zero for tonight. I think MM will bring it throughout the day, but who knows? Oh well, was fun being back on the leaderboard again for one night at least.


NO TIEBREAK NO PEACE
#493 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:06:24 PM | message detail
Mega Man was making another push, now Charizard pushing back
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 146/234 Today's Pick: Mega Man
#494 | pjbasis | Posted 9/10/2013 1:10:56 PM | message detail
#495 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/10/2013 1:11:59 PM | message detail
Huh. There's actually a small Mega Man rally on /v/.
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#496 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:12:43 PM | message detail
Probably helping Charizard more
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 146/234 Today's Pick: Mega Man
#497 | swordz9 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:15:27 PM | message detail
Doesn't matter how close Mega Man gets. The only way Charizard loses this is ralliers abandoning him so Red can beat Samus and Mega Man.
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#498 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/10/2013 1:17:55 PM | message detail
Charizard won't lose regardless. Pikachu got a big push at the end of Pikachu/Sora/Blue to advance despite the fact that it screwed Pokemon against Snake. They just don't care.

Alternatively, they were all MGS fans <_<</tinfoil hat>
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#499 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/10/2013 1:18:10 PM | message detail
Play Mega Man Zero 4?
#500 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/10/2013 1:18:19 PM | message detail
I'd actually doubt it's helping Charizard more. Mega Man seems to be someone /v/ actually likes. Noticed a lot of Mighty No. 9 threads over the past week or so and there was even a huge Mega Man Battle Network thread last night.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]