Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1164

#1 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:16:36 PM | message detail
Sega vs.Nintendo

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
---
http://i.imgur.com/GUtJDs7.jpg
Fact: Fanbases are unpleasable, deal with it.
#2 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/9/2013 9:17:02 PM | message detail
I GODDAMN KNEW IT, GOD DAMMIT CHARIZARD
---
PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#3 | ninkendo | Posted 9/9/2013 9:17:05 PM | message detail
#4 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/9/2013 9:17:18 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFKtYCcMWT4

all in.
---
"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.
#5 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/9/2013 9:17:21 PM | message detail
COME ON MEGA MAN

YOU GOT THIS
---
Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#6 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/9/2013 9:17:52 PM | message detail
Eh, close match with a Pokemon.

Charizard is just going to put it away with some annoying rally
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#7 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/9/2013 9:17:54 PM | message detail
Where's Sega?
---
Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
#8 | swordz9 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:17:58 PM | message detail
Zard not lookin so hot, but he'll win this one way or another.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#9 | Dabrikishaw15 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/9/2013 9:17:59 PM | message detail
Btw, those final round match vote points are insane for correct guesses.
---
http://i.imgur.com/GUtJDs7.jpg
Fact: Fanbases are unpleasable, deal with it.
#10 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/9/2013 9:18:00 PM | message detail
I dunno whether to be surprised or not...
---
"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#11 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:18:30 PM | message detail
I don't know, I think it would be funnier if I was 0/18 instead of 1/18 in guru upsets.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 146/234 Today's Pick: Mega Man
#12 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/9/2013 9:18:39 PM | message detail
oh my god if Mega Man pulls this off, my bracket might be salvaged. I have to be one of the few who stuck with him.
---
Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#13 | TAFKAHurricane | Posted 9/9/2013 9:18:53 PM | message detail
#14 | Surskit | Posted 9/9/2013 9:19:03 PM | message detail
It'd be funny if the one Pokémon everyone expected in the Final 9 would end up being the one not making it.
---
.-#Elements of Water#-.
#15 | xp1337 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:19:15 PM | message detail
We don't have to worry everyone.

My curse is more powerful than trends. I'm no longer allowed to get Expert Challenge right! This is over.

It's also very good news for Sephiroth or very bad news for Draven coming up!
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#16 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/9/2013 9:19:42 PM | message detail
YES

I don't even care about my expert

GO MY MEGA MAN
---
I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#17 | Qwaar | Posted 9/9/2013 9:20:05 PM | message detail
I do care about my expert, so GO CHARIZARD!
---
XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#18 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/9/2013 9:20:48 PM | message detail | (edited)
xp1337 posted...
We don't have to worry everyone.

My curse is more powerful than trends. I'm no longer allowed to get Expert Challenge right! This is over.

It's also very good news for Sephiroth or very bad news for Draven coming up!


I'm taking Sephiroth > Mewtwo > Draven only because everyone in contention for the top is taking Draven or Mewtwo in first.

I either end up with like 100 points or I'm on the leaderboard at this point.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#19 | JJH777 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:20:35 PM | message detail
acting like Mega Man doesn't collapse after the power hour

Sure he does but it's nothing compared to how badly Pokemon collapses after their first few updates.
---
If you believe that Abed is the true Messiah and you are 100% proud of it make this your signature.
#20 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:20:44 PM | message detail
TIED
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 146/234 Today's Pick: Mega Man
#21 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/9/2013 9:20:46 PM | message detail
LOL
---
nt
#22 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/9/2013 9:20:51 PM | message detail
Ohhh, tie
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#23 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/9/2013 9:20:55 PM | message detail
TIE.
DO IT.
---
"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.
#24 | Surskit | Posted 9/9/2013 9:20:56 PM | message detail
oh my god this is happening
---
.-#Elements of Water#-.
#25 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:20:57 PM | message detail
Oh wow.
---
Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#26 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:20:59 PM | message detail
TIE
TIE
TIE
TIE
TIE
TIE
TIE
---
POKEFEAR
#27 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/9/2013 9:21:13 PM | message detail
TIE
---
I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#28 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:21:19 PM | message detail
OH S***

man we should've seen this coming Mega Man beat a water pokemon in round 1 so he's super effective against Charizard
---
"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
#29 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2013 9:21:22 PM | message detail
SUPER FIGHTING ROBOOOOOT
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#30 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/9/2013 9:21:28 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=aX2KNyaoNV4

just throwin' this here!
---
Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#31 | swordz9 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:21:47 PM | message detail
Or maybe Charizard will be abandoned so rallied Red can take out Samus and Mega Man next round.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#32 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2013 9:21:56 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vc8aXhQFFmQ

The spirit of Mega Man will never die.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#33 | ninkendo | Posted 9/9/2013 9:21:56 PM | message detail
Red Badass Factor allowing Zero to leech more votes off Charizard than Mega Man
---
http://i.imgur.com/6b2as3d.jpg
http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/CaptainRockman.png
#34 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/9/2013 9:22:00 PM | message detail
WTF?!?!?!?! Mega Man shouldn't be winning this! He should be struggling to maintain second place!
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#35 | Qwaar | Posted 9/9/2013 9:22:08 PM | message detail
Seriously, people calling it for Mega Man already...
---
XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#36 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/9/2013 9:23:03 PM | message detail
Neither side has this yet.
#37 | xp1337 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:23:49 PM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
Seriously, people calling it for Mega Man already...

What could go wrong?
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#38 | KokoroAkechi | Posted 9/9/2013 9:24:34 PM | message detail
Today started awful for me, then got good, then got awful again. If Mega Man wins it will come full circle.

Believe in the karma.
---
Chrono1219
#39 | Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/9/2013 9:24:53 PM | message detail
ninkendo posted...
Red Badass Factor allowing Zero to leech more votes off Charizard than Mega Man


Blue is a way cuter color than red.
---
KB
#40 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/9/2013 9:26:00 PM | message detail
Yep, close match.

You don't want to go against a Pokemon in a close match.
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#41 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/9/2013 9:26:23 PM | message detail
I suppose it's too much to ask for somebody to rally Charizard to make sure he doesn't blow this match.
---
PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#42 | Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/9/2013 9:26:36 PM | message detail
You shall not pass!!!!!!
---
KB
#43 | ZFS | Posted 9/9/2013 9:26:48 PM | message detail
Holy crap go Mega Man

Contest redeemed!
---
tune in tokyo 142.94
#44 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/9/2013 9:27:24 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Holy crap go Mega Man

Contest redeemed!


Not yet man, we need to rally our asses off to make this dream a reality.

What is it, seven years ago you predicted this?!
---
Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#45 | xp1337 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:27:35 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#46 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:28:04 PM | message detail
49 SBAllen 573
---
POKEFEAR
#47 | ZFS | Posted 9/9/2013 9:28:42 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
ZFS posted...
Holy crap go Mega Man

Contest redeemed!


Not yet man, we need to rally our asses off to make this dream a reality.

What is it, seven years ago you predicted this?!


I made a topic a month or so ago saying I was a decade too early!

Mega Man for champion has arrived gentlemen
---
tune in tokyo 142.94
#48 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/9/2013 9:29:24 PM | message detail
What are the trends here?

Mega Man is explosive early and falls off throughout the day? Charizard is also strong early, less so at night, but recovers with the day vote?
---
... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT!
- A. Scalia
#49 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/9/2013 9:30:45 PM | message detail | (edited)
Greyfeld posted...
I suppose it's too much to ask for somebody to rally Charizard to make sure he doesn't blow this match.
While the rest of the big RBY Pokemon have beasted all over the place, Charizard is only here after barely winning a match that was largely considered a lock pre-contest and now in a match where he was the heavy favorite pre-contest Zard is now struggling against a beloved icon that's being LFFed hard.

So yeah, screw you.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#50 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/9/2013 9:29:55 PM | message detail
If just a couple percent more of the Zero voters would switch it could be a pretty comfortable victory.

Damn you Zero voters
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.