Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1163

#401 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/9/2013 2:57:02 PM | message detail
Julian_Caesar posted...
Scarlettail posted...
Either way, Charizard actually has to win first. I don't think his match is at all secure yet if Zero gives way for Mega Man.


If memory serves correctly, Zero holds up to LFF better than any other secondary character. Maybe Tifa against Cloud/Seph would be comparable, I suppose.


Nope, we've seen Tifa in a fourway with Sephiroth. She managed to hold up well enough to advance one round, but as soon as other halfway decent entrants entered the fray, she was in last place. Of course, she seems to have retained a greater portion of her old strength than the rest of the FF7 crew, but that could just be because of TJF, which I'm pretty sure is independent of SFF.

charmander6000 posted...
If we see the Charizard that went 50/50 with Zelda I have a hard time seeing him winning.


1. Look at all of Zelda and Ganondorf's past matches against Nintendo characters ahead of them on the totem pole (other than Link). Zelda-Samus 2006, Zelda-Mario-other things 2008 (for two rounds!), Ganondorf-Samus 2005, possibly the two rounds of Ganondorf-Luigi 2007, and even Mario-Vivi-Ganondorf here. There are a lot of overperformances.
2. Charizard's round 2 match was before the Mega Charizard announcement. Given the way Mewtwo seems a lot stronger than he did last contest, when the rest of the Pokémon already looked strong, I'm expecting a boost from his Round 2 strength.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#402 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 2:57:22 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
It's a bit difficult to believe Pokemon RBY hurt MM more than it hurt goddamn Pokemon GSC, yes. Saying "the stats predicted the match!" is utter horses*** revisionist history.


As the person who correctly called that match and won the Guru in that contest, charmander is describing the exact thought process I used. KH, you're seeming a little butthurt today.


But that process makes absolutely no logical sense. Please explain to me, *logically*, why a Pokemon game would LFF a Zelda game more than it would a game from its own series.


Because it's not traditional LFF. It's just sucking up the casual votes.
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.
#403 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/9/2013 3:03:48 PM | message detail
I honestly don't believe in "Mega boost"
I know we had brought this topic alot but...I just can't buy it
Unless you are going to say that Squirtle>Cloud because of Mega Blastoise or something...

I wasn't here during the 2007 contest I believe..? so im not really sure if "Brawl announcement boost" was a real thing
I can understand if it boosted Snake and Sonic because they "became Nintendo" but I can't see it doing too much boost for "omg Luigi announced to be in Brawl" just like I can't see "OMG MEGA CHARIZARD! im going to vote for him against Mega Man now!"
#404 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/9/2013 3:10:20 PM | message detail
As far as Red vs. Blue goes, Blue seemed to be at Fox level. Probably slightly better if you figure Fox killed Wolf so badly that any remaining Wolf voters wouldn't have preferred Fox over Blue very strongly. Both Squall and Fox had matches with Snake in 2010 and based on that Squall narrowly fails to 60-40 Fox. Red currently has 39% against Squall and another FF character. That's probably a little better than Blue but not by much.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#405 | Lisker | Posted 9/9/2013 3:12:00 PM | message detail
I love seeing all of this JRPG fanboy crap everyday on the front page.
#406 | ZFS | Posted 9/9/2013 3:16:31 PM | message detail
Yikes, Squall losing to Vivi. Was there any rallying today, or is this just the bandwagon from beating Mario? Unsurprising match outside of that!
---
tune in tokyo 142.94
#407 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/9/2013 3:50:41 PM | message detail
Rallying was sort of present for this match for at least a couple points but not for that long overall, not very effectively, and definitely not in numbers that would have changed Vivi > Squall. I'm thinking part Vivi and FFIX-boost and part bandwagon.

Squall would probably lose to Vivi today 1-on-1 based on those alone but between the bandwagon, the board vote, and the early rally, I figure Squall got behind Vivi by so much that he was sort of abandoned early out of hope that Vivi could beat Red. As the match continued that began to look impossible while Squall's natural strength began asserting itself. Squall has consequently done way better with the day vote than I would have figured, though I'm not an expert on Vivi vs. Squall's trends. But like, in the last 3 hours, Vivi has gained 169 votes on Squall. In comparison, Vivi was up 172 votes on Squall by the first post-freeze update.

Could be entirely wrong though!
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#408 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2013 3:53:32 PM | message detail
Squall has close to FF7 trends, I believe. He's risen a little more than I would've expected in the day, but he hasn't risen much since the night vote, where he recovered the most.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#409 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/9/2013 3:58:44 PM | message detail
Whaa...
Im tied at 162 points in the leaderboard? how did this happen? I was always behind by god knows how much
And I have -144 in this round for my expert even though my expert was faaar better than normal bracket before this round

It's weird..but it's probably thanks to my Mewtwo>Sonic pick
#410 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/9/2013 5:58:18 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Whaa...
Im tied at 162 points in the leaderboard? how did this happen? I was always behind by god knows how much
And I have -144 in this round for my expert even though my expert was faaar better than normal bracket before this round

It's weird..but it's probably thanks to my Mewtwo>Sonic pick


this round has been hell for the expert challenge
#411 | latiasz | Posted 9/9/2013 7:06:24 PM | message detail
Just letting everyone know mewtwo might be able to beat draven if there isn't as much rallying as before.
play.pokemonshowdown.com (message an admin to announce it, don't know if they will)
serebii
pokebeach
/r/pokemon
/v/
/vp/
#412 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2013 7:10:31 PM | message detail
Match CXVII: (1) Mega Man vs. (2) Zero vs. (7) Charizard

Previous Round

Mega Man – 56.67%
Jill Valentine – 23.08%
Kratos – 20.25%

Zero – 41.72%
Rikku – 29.43%
Weighted Companion Cube – 28.85%

Charizard – 41.49%
Zelda – 41.43%
Donkey Kong – 17.08%

Analysis

Out of the top Pokemon Charizard has yet to show the power of what the others have shown. His performance against Zelda was not impressive and should Mega Man have boosted with the Super Smash Bros. announcement it is quite possible that he loses even with Zero in the poll. It makes no sense for Charizard to perform so badly, maybe Link fans were getting ready on their assault against Draven or maybe Zelda is just Pokémon’s kryptonite.

Despite Zero looking great so far this contest with Mega Man here there is no chance for him to avoid last. Like in previous meetings Zero has held up quite well against Mega Man and has avoided massive SFF that we have seen between Nintendo and Square characters. The sad part is that this inability to fold will likely be the major reason as to why Mega Man will lose the match. Pokemon has been quite lucky with LFF, but their luck may soon run out in the final matches.

I feel Mega Man has a great chance at winning this match. Looking back at 2008 Solid Snake was able to get 62% on Mega Man with Zero in the poll, not exactly a large scale beating. That number however would be enough for Charizard to at least threaten Mega Man. Another thing Mega Man has is the Super Smash Bros. announcement and for the previous two rounds he has looked quite impressive.

Just because there is LFF it does not mean the character automatically loses. Just look at Pikachu a few matches ago. I still believe Charizard will continue the Pokemon tradition and win this match, but should Mega Man SFF Zero by more than he has previously I could see the upset occurring. Should Charizard win it would mean we have 5 Pokemon in the final 9, not exactly the variety you wanted to see.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mega Man > Zelda and Zero

charmander6000’s Prediction: Charizard – 39.22%, Mega Man – 35.44%, Zero – 25.34%
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 146/225 Today's Pick: Mario
#413 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/9/2013 7:22:41 PM | message detail
I think Mega Man doubles Zero. Last time, he got 62% on Zero, and MM has every reason to hold up/boost better than Zero (unless MvC3 worked wonders). I mean, hell if I'm betting against Pokémon at this point, but I think it's going to be close. Maybe Pokéclutch will have to kick in.
---
Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#414 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/9/2013 7:33:57 PM | message detail | (edited)
It just occurred to me that consistent Missingno. results in Tidus 59-41ing Amaterasu, almost what Luigi got. I feel like Amaterasu > Tidus would actually be a popular upset pick if they met up.

Also a Squall drop having caused this result probably means Amaterasu would had to have fallen a lot with him. Not something I'd expect, especially after MvC3.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#415 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/9/2013 7:28:56 PM | message detail
I'm worried about the next match. Charizard > Mega Man seems like the "obvious upset" considering the 3rd character, but the fact that I've been wrong about every match in this round short of Draven should say something.
---
Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
#416 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/9/2013 7:33:07 PM | message detail
I think it's getting unwise to question Pokemon. I also feel skeptical about this match and Charizard, but I have to remind myself that Pokemon has come through every time so far despite doubts.
#417 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/9/2013 7:51:43 PM | message detail
Scarlettail posted...
I think it's getting unwise to question Pokemon. I also feel skeptical about this match and Charizard, but I have to remind myself that Pokemon has come through every time so far despite doubts.


We've seen that Charizard without the bandwagon is nothing special.

However, we aren't seeing the Charizard bandwagon. We are seeing the entire series of Pokemon bandwagon, and it's going to roll all over Mega Man now. Char may not even need Zero to do it.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#418 | Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/9/2013 7:55:37 PM | message detail
Squall, finish this tourney strong... and start gaining momentum for the next tournament.

You're still the most successful non FF7 FF character.
---
KB
#419 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/9/2013 7:56:29 PM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Scarlettail posted...
I think it's getting unwise to question Pokemon. I also feel skeptical about this match and Charizard, but I have to remind myself that Pokemon has come through every time so far despite doubts.


We've seen that Charizard without the bandwagon is nothing special.

However, we aren't seeing the Charizard bandwagon. We are seeing the entire series of Pokemon bandwagon, and it's going to roll all over Mega Man now. Char may not even need Zero to do it.

Pokémon was already putting up godly numbers before the Charizard tank. Squirtle dominating a debated match, Pikachu stomping Chrono Trigger…
---
Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#420 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/9/2013 8:06:36 PM | message detail
Well, this might be our last interesting match of the contest, with everything after pretty much predetermined.
#421 | VeryInsane | Posted 9/9/2013 8:38:55 PM | message detail
Out of curiosity, I think Mega Man vs. Sephiroth would be close, maybe even in favor of Mega Man now.

But if this was, say, Sephiroth vs. Vincent vs. Charizard, I'd still see the Zard winning.

People talk about losing to Zelda but this was probably the day before the Draven match so Zelda fanboys may have been more in force or something. Zelda's also a lot stronger than people give her credit for.
---
Currently Playing: Persona 3 FES
Currently Reading: Nothing Currently Currently Watching: Dr. Who
#422 | paulg235 | Posted 9/9/2013 8:42:17 PM | message detail
Pretty sure Mega Man straight up beats Sephiroth and maybe Cloud, now. Both have looked so pathetic that Sonic would likely give them a scare.
---
Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#423 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/9/2013 8:49:54 PM | message detail | (edited)
paulg235 posted...
Pretty sure Mega Man straight up beats Sephiroth and maybe Cloud, now. Both have looked so pathetic that Sonic would likely give them a scare.


Why is MM always so damn overrated in this contest? Despite being perhaps the weakest N9 the last like 4 contests.
---
nt
#424 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/9/2013 8:51:12 PM | message detail
78-vote update!
#425 | Qwaar | Posted 9/9/2013 8:56:12 PM | message detail
This could be a hell of a match. Brackets will be destroyed either way.
---
XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#426 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/9/2013 8:56:29 PM | message detail
Charizard gonna win comfortably.
---
nt
#427 | WhiteLens | Posted 9/9/2013 8:57:15 PM | message detail
45 GoogleChrom 568

How did I just notice that?
ya go my other alt, which could very fall off in the next 3 minutes.
---
Behold my early copy of The Wonderful 101, autographed by Hideki Kamiya:
http://i.imgur.com/ZBfWtcU.jpg?1
#428 | Qwaar | Posted 9/9/2013 8:58:06 PM | message detail
WhiteLens posted...
45 GoogleChrom 568

How did I just notice that?
ya go my other alt, which could very fall off in the next 3 minutes.


What did you have for the current match?
---
XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#429 | LinkFTMFW | Posted 9/9/2013 8:59:12 PM | message detail
my intuitive understanding is Charizard will wafflecrush since megaman isnt super strong anyway and zero will be sapping a bunch of votes. Now im going to read what everyone else says.
#430 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/9/2013 9:00:18 PM | message detail
#431 | hylianknight3 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:00:21 PM | message detail
Mega Man
25%
1 Votes

Zero (Mega Man X)
0%
0 Votes

Charizard
75%
3 Votes
Your Pick
#432 | paulg235 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:00:28 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Mega Man
47.06%
16 Votes
Zero (Mega Man X)
2.94%
1 Votes
Charizard
50%
17 Votes
Your Pick
Total Votes: 34

LOL ZERO
---
Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#433 | ninkendo | Posted 9/9/2013 9:00:29 PM | message detail
Mega Man
42.86%
6 Votes
Your Pick
Zero (Mega Man X)
0%
0 Votes
Charizard
57.14%
8 Votes
---
http://i.imgur.com/6b2as3d.jpg
http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/CaptainRockman.png
#434 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:00:31 PM | message detail
Let's go Mega Man


Mega Man
50%
10 Votes

Zero (Mega Man X)
5%
1 Votes

Charizard
45%
9 Votes
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 146/234 Today's Pick: Mega Man
#435 | raytan7585 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:00:31 PM | message detail
Mega Man
47.83%
11 Votes

Zero (Mega Man X)
4.35%
1 Votes

Charizard
47.83%
11 Votes
Your Pick

Total Votes: 23
---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baUY9LFlYh0 - KokorokokoroKOKOROkokoROKokoro-chan iu na
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/raytan7585
#436 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:00:32 PM | message detail
what am I voting fooooooor
---
"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
#437 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/9/2013 9:00:32 PM | message detail
hahahahhahahahahah suck it megaman
---
nt
#438 | Blairville | Posted 9/9/2013 9:00:38 PM | message detail
the pokemon board vote is strong
---
Haman Korn! You're the source of all kernels in this world! Your time has come! -Cornille
You've made a poor choice for your final popping place! -Haman Korn
#439 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/9/2013 9:00:43 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Mega Man
40.44%
55 Votes
Your Pick

Zero (Mega Man X)
11.03%
15 Votes

Charizard
48.53%
66 Votes
Total Votes: 136
---
POKEFEAR
#440 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/9/2013 9:00:58 PM | message detail
Char starting out with half the vote. Yikes.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#441 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/9/2013 9:01:10 PM | message detail
Oh rats. Early freeze.
---
"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#442 | Qwaar | Posted 9/9/2013 9:01:16 PM | message detail
Freeze already!
---
XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#443 | JJH777 | Posted 9/9/2013 9:01:39 PM | message detail | (edited)
Let's hope Charizard has normal drop 10% from the freeze pokemon trends. Though considering he's facing Mega Man...
---
If you believe that Abed is the true Messiah and you are 100% proud of it make this your signature.
#444 | Spontaneousness | Posted 9/9/2013 9:01:29 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Mega Man
43.75%
7 Votes

Zero (Mega Man X)
6.25%
1 Votes
Your Pick

Charizard
50%
8 Votes
Total Votes: 16

poor zero
#445 | Blairville | Posted 9/9/2013 9:01:52 PM | message detail
This is gonna be one hell of an update.
---
Haman Korn! You're the source of all kernels in this world! Your time has come! -Cornille
You've made a poor choice for your final popping place! -Haman Korn
#446 | Qwaar | Posted 9/9/2013 9:02:10 PM | message detail
Zero needs a massive jump if Charizard to to stay ahead.
---
XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#447 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/9/2013 9:02:26 PM | message detail
The freeze happened in less than 40 seconds.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#448 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/9/2013 9:02:46 PM | message detail
A quick freeze? Fire is strong to ice attacks.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#449 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/9/2013 9:02:49 PM | message detail
I got the 2nd vote for Mega Man, which was 7th overall.
---
Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
#450 | ninkendo | Posted 9/9/2013 9:04:24 PM | message detail