Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1163

#351 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/9/2013 12:32:04 PM | message detail
abdou posted...
basically , this contest sucks. Vivi beats Mario only to lose to..Red.


Mario getting beat was good for the contest. It creates the platform Samus needs to make the final for which she deserves. She's indirectly stronger than Mario but can never beat Mario. Only makes sense to have her in the Final.

Who knows...with some sexy pics she might distract the draven drones. picture of a sexy female vs Draven.....I think draven loses out more votes than previous rounds.
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#352 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/9/2013 1:13:17 PM | message detail
Or they can oggle the breasts and still vote Draven.
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#353 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 1:14:36 PM | message detail
I finally come back and see Squall doing a real effort to get to 27%...that'll do, Squall. That'll do. I knew he was legit, bandwagons are just too strong to SFF. I'm comvinced he'd cream Bandwagon Vivi or Red in a 1v1 now.
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#354 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/9/2013 1:17:02 PM | message detail
He was supposed to cream Vivi anyway and isn't. Squall was presumed to be around a level of strength where he'd 60/40 either of these guys. It's hard to picture that happening now.
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#355 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 1:20:56 PM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
He was supposed to cream Vivi anyway and isn't. Squall was presumed to be around a level of strength where he'd 60/40 either of these guys. It's hard to picture that happening now.


Irrelevant when Pokemon and a bandwagoned entity are in the match. Is it necessary to bring up the leap from Games 2009 to GotD that MM had on GSC again? Pokemon has enormous resilience in multiways to everything but Zelda. Couple that with a character fresh off one of the biggest upsets ever in a contest where the votes come from smarks and it's no surprise he's finishing in last place. Thing is, even then, Squall is not folding. He was at 20% at one point and has risen almost seven percentage points since then. That's a hell of a thing to do in a match that would be a barnburner if he had only taken his last place and gotten fodderized properly. The higher the votals go, the better Squall does, and I'm convinced he'd take these two jobbers even with this setup if we weren't down to such a sorry level of votes.
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#356 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2013 1:23:50 PM | message detail
I think Squall could still 60/40 Red. He and Vivi are pretty clearly killing each other, here.
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#357 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2013 1:25:57 PM | message detail
Hmmm...These vote totals are pretty much right in line with Pikachu/Sora/Blue here.

LFF the worst
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#358 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2013 1:26:52 PM | message detail
Not sure why people keep bringing MM/GSC up, the stats predicted the match, we just ignored it and added our own adjustments
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#359 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/9/2013 1:27:50 PM | message detail
Yeah, pretty much. Just...think about it for a second. If Squall starts at his initial percentage and dips two points, the rally machines start going absolutely crazy because Vivi has a real shot at first place. In spite of being up against Pokemon AND a bandwagoned entry from his own fanbase, though, Squall is refusing to fold so hard that he's completely killed Vivi's chances at the upset. I'm convinced Auron wouldn't do half as well here and would die well enough to give Vivi a shot at first, f'rinstance.
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#360 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2013 1:27:58 PM | message detail
And yeah, this is a pretty sad showing for Red. Vivi's got 47% on him, Squall's got 40.5% on him, despite their presence killing each other.

He's probably around Blue's level, honestly.
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#361 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 1:28:05 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Not sure why people keep bringing MM/GSC up, the stats predicted the match, we just ignored it and added our own adjustments


I can't take you seriously anymore if you even slightly believe this.
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#362 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2013 1:31:08 PM | message detail
Actually, Auron got 58% on Ocelot despite Roxas in the poll. If you believe that Squall>=Auron and Red>=Ocelot, that seems about what Squall would do (and of course MASTER VIVI)
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#363 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2013 1:32:37 PM | message detail
This makes Wrex look even worse somehow.

And Cecil too

LOL Old Square boost
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#364 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2013 1:32:42 PM | message detail
Is it really difficult to believe RBY can SFF MM?

Because there is no reason to believe MM had a bandwagon in the third round.
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#365 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 1:34:42 PM | message detail
It's a bit difficult to believe Pokemon RBY hurt MM more than it hurt goddamn Pokemon GSC, yes. Saying "the stats predicted the match!" is utter horses*** revisionist history.
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#366 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2013 1:35:07 PM | message detail
RBY might just be that strong. It's only matches after that were matches where it got close to MGS1 despite GSC and MM in the poll, beat MGS1 and FF8 despite OoT, and then got close to FFX despite OoT and SSBM.

This contest giving five million favorable LFF situations for Pokemon is basically karma for what RBY had to deal with.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#367 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2013 1:36:20 PM | message detail
Hey now the 2004 Games Contest SFF adjusted stats correctly predicted Mario 64 > Mario World
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#368 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2013 1:36:55 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
This contest giving five million favorable LFF situations for Pokemon is basically karma for what RBY had to deal with.


It would be karma if R/B/Y had lost round 1! This isn't karma when R/B/Y won most of those matches anyway!
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#369 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/9/2013 1:37:20 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure if there's anything that can be taken from the Rivalry Rumble, it's that Red/Blue proved that Red/Blue/Yellow is just as strong, if not stronger, than the 4-way Games contest implied it was.
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~War~
#370 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2013 1:37:26 PM | message detail
I never said it was equivalent karma!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#371 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/9/2013 1:38:15 PM | message detail
ban all pokemon
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#372 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/9/2013 1:39:01 PM | message detail
No Pokemon
Link only
GAMEFAQS.COM
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~War~
#373 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/9/2013 1:45:19 PM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
No Pokemon
Link only
GAMEFAQS.COM


so basically this site pre-2007 (and 2003 I guess, thanks Cloud)
#374 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2013 1:51:48 PM | message detail
It's a bit difficult to believe Pokemon RBY hurt MM more than it hurt goddamn Pokemon GSC, yes. Saying "the stats predicted the match!" is utter horses*** revisionist history.

I know it's a bit more complicated than that, but with all the SFF and LFF it all ended up working out which I find funny. In the end it was a match with three Nintendo games a bunch of factors was in play there.

I have no issue believing GSC resisted SFF better than MM (LFF is another story), I even predicted that GSC would hold up nicely. The average Pokemon fan prefers GSC over RBY and one of the few reasons why RBY is stronger is because the game was played by more people.
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#375 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/9/2013 1:57:15 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
It's a bit difficult to believe Pokemon RBY hurt MM more than it hurt goddamn Pokemon GSC, yes. Saying "the stats predicted the match!" is utter horses*** revisionist history.

I know it's a bit more complicated than that, but with all the SFF and LFF it all ended up working out which I find funny. In the end it was a match with three Nintendo games a bunch of factors was in play there.

I have no issue believing GSC resisted SFF better than MM (LFF is another story), I even predicted that GSC would hold up nicely. The average Pokemon fan prefers GSC over RBY and one of the few reasons why RBY is stronger is because the game was played by more people.


RBY is arguably the 2nd strongest game on the site now.
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#376 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/9/2013 1:58:32 PM | message detail
Yuri_LowelI posted...
charmander6000 posted...
It's a bit difficult to believe Pokemon RBY hurt MM more than it hurt goddamn Pokemon GSC, yes. Saying "the stats predicted the match!" is utter horses*** revisionist history.

I know it's a bit more complicated than that, but with all the SFF and LFF it all ended up working out which I find funny. In the end it was a match with three Nintendo games a bunch of factors was in play there.

I have no issue believing GSC resisted SFF better than MM (LFF is another story), I even predicted that GSC would hold up nicely. The average Pokemon fan prefers GSC over RBY and one of the few reasons why RBY is stronger is because the game was played by more people.


RBY is arguably the 2nd strongest game on the site now.


arguably?
who's debating otherwise
#377 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/9/2013 2:00:06 PM | message detail
Some people seem to think non-Pokemon LFF is a thing this contest. If it was around in 2009 too, you can sort of justify that result by saying Metal Gear Solid fans would have jumped ship to Zelda in unusual numbers. KH is a MGS fan and it doesn't sound like he's voted for Pokemon much!

Meanwhile hardcore pokemon fans love GSC and might not have abandoned it much. Always got the sense they liked it more than RBY, or at least they did a few years ago. I figure RBY was likely being leeched on two ends at once between the Pokemon fanbase (as opposed to general Pokemon voters) on the one side and general Nintendo fans on the other. And "I HAVE FAILED" probably indicates Pokemon GSC is not especially good at getting default Nintendo option votes.
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#378 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 2:00:10 PM | message detail
People that have it as #1 I imagine.
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#379 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2013 2:01:55 PM | message detail
I predicted GSC holding up well to RBY as well, back then. Not many people believed me!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#380 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2013 2:02:31 PM | message detail
RBY is arguably the 2nd strongest game on the site now.

I'm not saying it is not, but go to any Pokemon fansite and ask them to rank the gens and you'll see a lot more GSC > RBY than vice versa, this suggests an ability to resist SFF, which we saw to an extent in 2009.

The difference is that people who prefer GSC still liked RBY plus add the people that have only played RBY (or skipped GSC) and nostalgic goggles and RBY is the stronger game.
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#381 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2013 2:05:24 PM | message detail
Some people seem to think non-Pokemon LFF is a thing this contest. If it was around in 2009 too, you can sort of justify that result by saying Metal Gear Solid fans would have jumped ship to Zelda in unusual numbers. KH is a MGS fan and it doesn't sound like he's voted for Pokemon much!

MM is actually a Top Five game for me (when most other Zeldas don't hold much appeal, outside of LttP). GOTD result was the first time my favorite entry in the bracket won!

But no matter what way you slice it this is revisionist history. Hold RBY v GSC 1v1 and I find it as likely as anything that GSC gets crushed the second time around. The stats simply did not hold up for GOTD. This is not a bad thing - people acting like they did is what is irksome.
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#382 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/9/2013 2:06:52 PM | message detail
GSC's contest is funny because ultimately it performed exactly as well as it was expected to (unless people think Majora's bandwagon began before the FFX match), it's just that Majora's massively outperformed expectations.
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~War~
#383 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/9/2013 2:08:32 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
This makes Wrex look even worse somehow.

And Cecil too

LOL Old Square boost


Agreed. Not even Terra looked that good despite being in a position to overperform (only 45% on an SFFed Kirby?).
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#384 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/9/2013 2:08:43 PM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
GSC's contest is funny because ultimately it performed exactly as well as it was expected to (unless people think Majora's bandwagon began before the FFX match), it's just that Majora's massively outperformed expectations.


well to be fair, MM had a match in between Melee going down and facing FFX!
#385 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2013 2:10:48 PM | message detail
Even before FFX/MM, GSC was still looking decent after MM's performance on WW and MGS3
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#386 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/9/2013 2:12:17 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Even before FFX/MM, GSC was still looking decent after MM's performance on WW and MGS3


Well yeah, that's what I mean! It was expected to win close matches over WW and MGS3 on route to a respectable loss to FFX, which is exactly what would've happened if that darn Mask wasn't in the way!
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~War~
#387 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/9/2013 2:20:10 PM | message detail
I do remember a few mentions of GSC having a shot at FFX, but I feel like those people probably weren't expecting FFX to easily toss RE4 aside and end up looking about the same or better than Melee and Brawl.

MM is actually a Top Five game for me (when most other Zeldas don't hold much appeal, outside of LttP). GOTD result was the first time my favorite entry in the bracket won!

...Well, MGS/MM LFF CONFIRMED!
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#388 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2013 2:20:46 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
It's a bit difficult to believe Pokemon RBY hurt MM more than it hurt goddamn Pokemon GSC, yes. Saying "the stats predicted the match!" is utter horses*** revisionist history.


As the person who correctly called that match and won the Guru in that contest, charmander is describing the exact thought process I used. KH, you're seeming a little butthurt today.
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#389 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/9/2013 2:23:35 PM | message detail
Just over 24 hours until another day of total chaos here with Draven's match. Can't wait.
#390 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/9/2013 2:27:49 PM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
I'm pretty sure if there's anything that can be taken from the Rivalry Rumble, it's that Red/Blue proved that Red/Blue/Yellow is just as strong, if not stronger, than the 4-way Games contest implied it was.


..I hate this,honestly
It feels like an elitist POV that Rivalry Rumble can't be used at all
Sure it had some stupid moments like Donkey Kong>Ezio,Fox>Yuna
But most of the matches made perfect sense...it's noot like Squall lost to Laharl because Seifer dragged him down

Trainers getting third place there after what happened with Charizard in 2010 was such an obvious hint for what would happen with Pokemon in this contest
Not like I took Squirtle>Cloud,but it was obvious we would get to something like...this
#391 | LOLContests | Posted 9/9/2013 2:31:42 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
It's a bit difficult to believe Pokemon RBY hurt MM more than it hurt goddamn Pokemon GSC, yes. Saying "the stats predicted the match!" is utter horses*** revisionist history.


As the person who correctly called that match and won the Guru in that contest, charmander is describing the exact thought process I used. KH, you're seeming a little butthurt today.


But that process makes absolutely no logical sense. Please explain to me, *logically*, why a Pokemon game would LFF a Zelda game more than it would a game from its own series.
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#392 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/9/2013 2:33:47 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I think Squall could still 60/40 Red. He and Vivi are pretty clearly killing each other, here.


you come up with some decent analysis...then garbage like that. Squall wouldn't 60-40 any pokemon or pokemon related characters(except jigglypuff) in this contest.

Why are people overrating Squall all of a sudden?
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#393 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/9/2013 2:36:28 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
It's a bit difficult to believe Pokemon RBY hurt MM more than it hurt goddamn Pokemon GSC, yes. Saying "the stats predicted the match!" is utter horses*** revisionist history.


As the person who correctly called that match and won the Guru in that contest, charmander is describing the exact thought process I used. KH, you're seeming a little butthurt today.


But that process makes absolutely no logical sense. Please explain to me, *logically*, why a Pokemon game would LFF a Zelda game more than it would a game from its own series.


It doesn't make sense
It's just BT using his "I WON THE GURU I AM THE GOD OF THIS BOARD" to make illogical arguments
Like how he bragged about Vaas>Neku and Catherine
#394 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/9/2013 2:36:48 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Scarlettail posted...
Charizard beating Samus is not completely out of the question after Pikachu beat Sora. Samus is more challenging, but I think Red would fold more than Blue.


The key difference is that Pikachu is stronger than Sora naturally.

Probably not the case in Charizard/Samus.


It's a tough call. Red probably has more natural strength than Blue, but Samus is definitely far stronger than Sora...and we still don't really know whether Pikachu is actually stronger than Charizard! (I'm not willing to write off Charizard for that performance against Zelda, because LoZ > everything else Nintendo hierarchy is just that strong. Go back and look at every time Zelda or Ganondorf went up against Mario or Samus. Aside from Samus-Zelda 2010, most of them have resulted in some of the worst performances they've ever put up against fellow Nintendo characters, if not the worst against any non-Noble Niners. Samus-Zelda 2010 is the anomaly--Zelda and Ganondorf are very much capable of rSFFing Nintendo characters with greater natural strengths than themselves.)

I'm not calling anything until I see Charizard's match against the Mega Man duo. If he struggles, then yeah, Samus definitely has it. Win easily but only with a plurality, and it's up in the air. Break 50%, I call Mega Charizard boost from the previous round and Zelda rSFF and start rallying my ass off to create the Draven > Snake > Charizard final that would win me the Guru.
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#395 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2013 2:37:18 PM | message detail
But that process makes absolutely no logical sense. Please explain to me, *logically*, why a Pokemon game would LFF a Zelda game more than it would a game from its own series.

SFF and LFF are different things Pokemon SFF Zelda while RBY/GSC suffered LFF.

Another example would be Mario/MMX with Zelda and Luigi in the poll.
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#396 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/9/2013 2:39:39 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
It's a bit difficult to believe Pokemon RBY hurt MM more than it hurt goddamn Pokemon GSC, yes. Saying "the stats predicted the match!" is utter horses*** revisionist history.


As the person who correctly called that match and won the Guru in that contest, charmander is describing the exact thought process I used. KH, you're seeming a little butthurt today.


But that process makes absolutely no logical sense. Please explain to me, *logically*, why a Pokemon game would LFF a Zelda game more than it would a game from its own series.


well apparently GSC is capable of rSFF among the Pokemon fanbase, so there's that
#397 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/9/2013 2:45:17 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Scarlettail posted...
Charizard beating Samus is not completely out of the question after Pikachu beat Sora. Samus is more challenging, but I think Red would fold more than Blue.


The key difference is that Pikachu is stronger than Sora naturally.

Probably not the case in Charizard/Samus.


It's a tough call. Red probably has more natural strength than Blue, but Samus is definitely far stronger than Sora...and we still don't really know whether Pikachu is actually stronger than Charizard! (I'm not willing to write off Charizard for that performance against Zelda, because LoZ > everything else Nintendo hierarchy is just that strong. Go back and look at every time Zelda or Ganondorf went up against Mario or Samus. Aside from Samus-Zelda 2010, most of them have resulted in some of the worst performances they've ever put up against fellow Nintendo characters, if not the worst against any non-Noble Niners. Samus-Zelda 2010 is the anomaly--Zelda and Ganondorf are very much capable of rSFFing Nintendo characters with greater natural strengths than themselves.)

I'm not calling anything until I see Charizard's match against the Mega Man duo. If he struggles, then yeah, Samus definitely has it. Win easily but only with a plurality, and it's up in the air. Break 50%, I call Mega Charizard boost from the previous round and Zelda rSFF and start rallying my ass off to create the Draven > Snake > Charizard final that would win me the Guru.


Red isn't probably stronger. He's definitely Stronger. It's not even close. In a direct 1v1 match. Red would obliterate Blue.
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#398 | LOLContests | Posted 9/9/2013 2:45:28 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
But that process makes absolutely no logical sense. Please explain to me, *logically*, why a Pokemon game would LFF a Zelda game more than it would a game from its own series.

SFF and LFF are different things Pokemon SFF Zelda while RBY/GSC suffered LFF.

Another example would be Mario/MMX with Zelda and Luigi in the poll.


But in the latter case Luigi did way worse against MMX than he would have done against MMX 1v1, any SFF inside.
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#399 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/9/2013 2:52:38 PM | message detail
Imagine-Pokemon Trainer Red with this picture
http://1-media-cdn.foolz.us/ffuuka/board/vp/image/1364/86/1364865652038.jpg
Too bad it's not official and it's impossible to make it into a 299*187 frame,let alone give enough space to another 2 characters!
#400 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2013 2:55:07 PM | message detail
But in the latter case Luigi did way worse against MMX than he would have done against MMX 1v1, any SFF inside.

I meant MMX's performance against Mario, some people thought Luigi would cause Mario to lose because they thought Luigi would LFF Mario by more than Zelda because obviously they have more overlap.


Imagine if Mega Man, Zero and Yoshi had a match together, Mega Man SFF Yoshi, but LFF between Mega Man and Zero pushes Zero below a SFF Yoshi. In a 1v1 Yoshi would defeat Zero despite it being "obvious" that Zero should have benefited more from Mega Man's removal.
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