Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1163

#201 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2013 10:08:07 PM | message detail
*refresh*

False hope is the worst hope
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#202 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 10:08:16 PM | message detail
Squall cut
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#203 | Lopen | Posted 9/8/2013 10:08:43 PM | message detail
Squall you're an ass
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#204 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/8/2013 10:08:44 PM | message detail
Kyle Bowen posted...
How much sleep will I get if I vow not to go to bed until Squall gets one cut against Vivi?


you can go to bed now
#205 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/8/2013 10:08:48 PM | message detail
Vivi cut -> Squall cut

okay sure
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#206 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/8/2013 10:08:54 PM | message detail
Squall cut Vivi. Maybe the Power Hour ending is heading in another direction, guys.
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#207 | Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/8/2013 10:08:54 PM | message detail
Squall cut!

I can go to bed with a morale victory!
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KB
#208 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/8/2013 10:09:10 PM | message detail
Yeah Red, stretch that lead.
#209 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 10:09:30 PM | message detail
Red only gained and Squall only cut that update because you people haven't raised your own personal army yet.

I've given you the template - but *you* must be the one to step through that door into the hell we call RallyFAQs.
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#210 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 10:10:11 PM | message detail
#211 | pjbasis | Posted 9/8/2013 10:10:26 PM | message detail
#212 | TheOceIot | Posted 9/8/2013 10:10:55 PM | message detail
boring match
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you just can't live in that negative way...make way for the positive day
#213 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 10:13:35 PM | message detail
This is the victory we've won for ourselves!

Rally Heaven.
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#214 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/8/2013 10:16:05 PM | message detail
All right guys... been holding back on this one for competitive advantage but here's the key to all the mysteries of this contest!

So... GameFAQs is getting older. And as you get older, in preparation to have children you instinctively become more open to having children, and thus the qualities children have. Namely, being adorable!

Consider, CuteFAQs:

All the pokémon doing well, except MissingNo - NOT KAWAII
Tiny Tina overperforms.
Layton overperforms.
KOS-MOS overperforms.
Aensland overperforms against Seph.
Spryo and Clementine destroy Reyn, BASTION OF STRENGTH.
Kirby's success, which came... JUST SHY of beating Seph, who is easily mistaken for a female.
Crash Bandicoot overperforms against Portal.
Commander Keen - SECRET BEAST. In a 1v1 he takes all of Isaac's votes and overperforms against Snake. Isaac was simply a more well-known youngster.
Ike loses to GlaDOS and a horse.
Slime overperforms on Lara.
Prinny overperforms on Cloud.
Frog overperforms on Cloud.
Lugia overperforms on Cloud.
Squirtle overperforms on Cloud.
Tifa overperforms on Cloud... INDIRECTLY.
FF9 - cutest FF game - overperforms. Aiko, surely a 28th seed.
Missile defeats contest winner Sarah Kerrigan.
Sandbag defeats Arthur C. Clarke and Isaac Asimov... COMBINED.
Neku and Catherine combine to demolish Vaas ... THREAT TO YOUR CHILDREN.
Touhou wasn't actually stuffed. SB just wanted to deter potential large stuffers by making claims he had caught tiny, hard-to-notice stuffers.
Palutena overperforms on a LoL character.
Yuna over Chief.
Ammy overperforms.
Banjo and Tidus almost beat the funniest joke... IN THE WORLD.
Recette Lemongrass overperforms.
Boko the Chocobo overperforms until Luster stuffs 8 votes for Kratos.
Voters almost abandon the Cube for a cuter joke... Claptrap!
Star of the contest ... DONKEY KONG, left in the dust by the likes of super-cute Zelda and Charizard.

Samus to win the contest. The ultimate MOTHER FIGURE remains after Pokémon knock each other out.
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#215 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 10:16:13 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
it's when i do the math that it seems possible for Mega Man to win. if you take the round 2 matches at face value, Zard's getting under 40% 1v1, maybe as low as 37%.

MM only got 63.5% on Zero even when locked in a life and death struggle with WCC for advancement.

Even if you assume that Brawl will boost MM and not Zero - quite possible - the most optimistic projection I can think of is MM 70/30ing Zero.

If MM is really at 60/40 on Zard 1v1, and MM can 70/30 Zero, then MM can win. Both are pretty questionable assumptions though. I don't think MM can 60/40 Zard - not sure what math you're using for that but I don't agree with it. And I doubt MM can 70/30 Zero.

MM has a non-zero chance to win, it's not impossible...but it is a slim hope.
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#216 | Xuxon | Posted 9/8/2013 10:16:43 PM | message detail
From: creativename | Posted: 9/9/2013 1:06:51 AM | #199
LeonhartFour posted...
Sephiroth winning the contest would be surreal if it happened.

Like, I can't even wrap my mind around that possibility.

That would pretty much be the most shocking result we could get at this point.

Even in a contest full of upsets, I can't conceive of that happening.

i could conceive of it but wow it's tough. here goes.

Reddit doesn't allow rallies, unrallied Draven plus Lopen's explanation regarding FF7/Pokemon allows Seph to win next round. one of Squirtle or Pikachu fold to allow the other to beat Snake. but the winner of Squirtle/Pikachu and Charizard don't fold, they split the vote, and enough people are sick of Pokemon winning all these other matches that Sephiroth wins.

...yeah that's such a huge stretch
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#217 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 10:18:50 PM | message detail
IngmarBirdman posted...
All right guys... been holding back on this one for competitive advantage but here's the key to all the mysteries of this contest!

So... GameFAQs is getting older. And as you get older, in preparation to have children you instinctively become more open to having children, and thus the qualities children have. Namely, being adorable!

Consider, CuteFAQs:

All the pokémon doing well, except MissingNo - NOT KAWAII
Tiny Tina overperforms.
Layton overperforms.
KOS-MOS overperforms.
Aensland overperforms against Seph.
Spryo and Clementine destroy Reyn, BASTION OF STRENGTH.
Kirby's success, which came... JUST SHY of beating Seph, who is easily mistaken for a female.
Crash Bandicoot overperforms against Portal.
Commander Keen - SECRET BEAST. In a 1v1 he takes all of Isaac's votes and overperforms against Snake. Isaac was simply a more well-known youngster.
Ike loses to GlaDOS and a horse.
Slime overperforms on Lara.
Prinny overperforms on Cloud.
Frog overperforms on Cloud.
Lugia overperforms on Cloud.
Squirtle overperforms on Cloud.
Tifa overperforms on Cloud... INDIRECTLY.
FF9 - cutest FF game - overperforms. Aiko, surely a 28th seed.
Missile defeats contest winner Sarah Kerrigan.
Sandbag defeats Arthur C. Clarke and Isaac Asimov... COMBINED.
Neku and Catherine combine to demolish Vaas ... THREAT TO YOUR CHILDREN.
Touhou wasn't actually stuffed. SB just wanted to deter potential large stuffers by making claims he had caught tiny, hard-to-notice stuffers.
Palutena overperforms on a LoL character.
Yuna over Chief.
Ammy overperforms.
Banjo and Tidus almost beat the funniest joke... IN THE WORLD.
Recette Lemongrass overperforms.
Boko the Chocobo overperforms until Luster stuffs 8 votes for Kratos.
Voters almost abandon the Cube for a cuter joke... Claptrap!
Star of the contest ... DONKEY KONG, left in the dust by the likes of super-cute Zelda and Charizard.

Samus to win the contest. The ultimate MOTHER FIGURE remains after Pokémon knock each other out.


All this time we thought it was Badass Decline Factor, it was CuteFAQs

my god
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#218 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/8/2013 10:18:56 PM | message detail
600 vote lead, all the more security.
#219 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/8/2013 10:20:24 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: creativename | Posted: 9/9/2013 1:06:51 AM | #199
LeonhartFour posted...
Sephiroth winning the contest would be surreal if it happened.

Like, I can't even wrap my mind around that possibility.

That would pretty much be the most shocking result we could get at this point.

Even in a contest full of upsets, I can't conceive of that happening.

i could conceive of it but wow it's tough. here goes.

Reddit doesn't allow rallies, unrallied Draven plus Lopen's explanation regarding FF7/Pokemon allows Seph to win next round. one of Squirtle or Pikachu fold to allow the other to beat Snake. but the winner of Squirtle/Pikachu and Charizard don't fold, they split the vote, and enough people are sick of Pokemon winning all these other matches that Sephiroth wins.

...yeah that's such a huge stretch


Your entire argument fell apart when you said "unrallied Draven."
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#220 | Rymari | Posted 9/8/2013 10:21:13 PM | message detail
Pokemon
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Shoe Waifu saluting account
#221 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 10:22:35 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
All this time we thought it was Badass Decline Factor, it was CuteFAQs

my god

Parenting-preparation FAQs. The Sesame Street Factor!

Elmo would win these contests. ...well before it turned out he was a pedo, anyway.
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#222 | Xuxon | Posted 9/8/2013 10:28:02 PM | message detail
From: creativename | Posted: 9/9/2013 1:16:13 AM | #215
Xuxon posted...
it's when i do the math that it seems possible for Mega Man to win. if you take the round 2 matches at face value, Zard's getting under 40% 1v1, maybe as low as 37%.

MM only got 63.5% on Zero even when locked in a life and death struggle with WCC for advancement.

Even if you assume that Brawl will boost MM and not Zero - quite possible - the most optimistic projection I can think of is MM 70/30ing Zero.

If MM is really at 60/40 on Zard 1v1, and MM can 70/30 Zero, then MM can win. Both are pretty questionable assumptions though. I don't think MM can 60/40 Zard - not sure what math you're using for that but I don't agree with it. And I doubt MM can 70/30 Zero.

MM has a non-zero chance to win, it's not impossible...but it is a slim hope.

if you take MM based on Jill 2010 and Charizard based on Zelda 2010 then it's literally a doubling (it puts MM at like, Link level). now obviously that isn't possible, the best conceivable value for MM would be a bit above Snake level and Charizard is at worst a bit weaker than the value you gave him in 2010. and there's not too much leeway from those best/worst case scenarios with Zero there, but enough that i don't think it's absolutely crazy. what really kills the possibility is rallies, though. it definitely seems like less of a gap than Squirtle unrallied against Cloud.
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#223 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 10:34:33 PM | message detail
Mega Man's percentage on Jill equates to almost the exact halfway point between Link 2010 and Cloud 2010. He would have continued to freefall in a 24 hour match though and probably landed around the Snake/Samus/Sephiroth tier instead.
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#224 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/8/2013 10:35:05 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
All this time we thought it was Badass Decline Factor, it was CuteFAQs

my god

Parenting-preparation FAQs. The Sesame Street Factor!

By next character battle:

Neo Noble Nine
- Kirby
- Ness
- Mewtwo
- Pikachu
- Samus
- Squirtle
- Tifa
- Vivi
- Yoshi

All of the child-threatening characters suffer a decline. Cloud v. Peach and Snake v. Yuna become debatable matches. Masterchief performs so poorly he replaces Chester as a more precise unit of contest strength.
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... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT!
- A. Scalia
#225 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 10:37:06 PM | message detail
"I need a bassinet."
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#226 | Xuxon | Posted 9/8/2013 10:38:00 PM | message detail
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/9/2013 1:34:33 AM | #223
Mega Man's percentage on Jill equates to almost the exact halfway point between Link 2010 and Cloud 2010. He would have continued to freefall in a 24 hour match though and probably landed around the Snake/Samus/Sephiroth tier instead.

erm, Kratos would have risen, sure, but Jill relative to MM? i don't think so.
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#227 | Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/8/2013 10:39:10 PM | message detail
Everyone gets new usernames...



Chibi Kyle Bowen


<(^_^)>
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KB
#228 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 11:01:14 PM | message detail
Oh right, yesterday's chart:

Time | Samus | L-Block | Tifa | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 46.77% | 27.76% | 25.48% | 789 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 42.18% | 27.21% | 30.62% | 6480 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 40.48% | 23.02% | 36.50% | 12120 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 39.40% | 23.59% | 37.01% | 5498 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 42.30% | 25.35% | 32.35% | 13754 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 42.80% | 23.99% | 33.21% | 12074 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 42.81% | 24.29% | 32.90% | 2441 | (22:00-24:00)

Gotta love Samus's and Tifa's huge...demographic shifts.

X-Stats:

Samus Aran – 50.00%
Tifa Lockhart – 44.78%
L-Block – 37.00%
Dragonborn – 36.34%
Auron – 35.11%
Yuna – 32.19%
Tom Nook – 30.05%
Master Chief – 29.77%
Revolver Ocelot – 29.45%
Pyramid Head – 28.85%
Chun-Li – 27.01%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 25.85%
Knuckles the Echidna – 25.64%
Claire Redfield – 24.37%
Palutena – 22.70%
Roxas – 22.54%
Sandbag – 21.58%
Catherine – 21.38%
Miles “Tails” Prower – 21.02%
Neku Sakuraba – 20.84%
Celes Chere – 20.42%
Bomberman – 17.50%
Seifer Almasy – 17.14%
Isaac Clarke – 15.56%
Vaas Montenegro – 15.34%
Cirno – 13.96%
Teemo – 12.59%

Samus's prediction percentage was 41.95%
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#229 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 11:16:49 PM | message detail
Master Chief > Ezio

LoL in last

The best character ever winning

Best division
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#230 | Averia | Posted 9/8/2013 11:17:13 PM | message detail
This is all Missingno's fault.
If he had won like he was supposed too, none of this would have happened !
#231 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 11:18:16 PM | message detail
Everything connected to Auron being off kilter ought to confirm the fact that L-Block was pretty heavily rallied.
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"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
#232 | Qwaar | Posted 9/8/2013 11:19:42 PM | message detail
Tom Nook over Master Chief is awesome.
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#233 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/8/2013 11:20:03 PM | message detail
time to take Pyramid Head>Chun-Li!
#234 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 11:21:19 PM | message detail
Tom Nook is now worth as much on Samus as 2005 Frog.
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#235 | Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/8/2013 11:24:15 PM | message detail
Can I still be excited for a



SQUALL CUT!?
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KB
#236 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 11:24:36 PM | message detail
In more serious news, Samus did 1.2% worse against Tifa than the stats projected. So it seems she declined slightly more than Tifa, which makes sense. I still think that Samus would beat Sephiroth and slightly improve on her 2010 number on Cloud (without winning), since Sephiroth and Cloud have fallen off a cliff while Tifa has reasons not to fall off nearly as much - basically amounting to "not a male badass" and "her most high-profile game appearance since Kingdom Hearts II in Dissidia 012".

Speaking of which, the only three Dissidia 012 newbies who appeared in this contest were Tifa, Yuna, and Lightning (IIRC, there might have been someone I missed). The former two both did well, which makes sense seeing how the game was their first major source of exposure in years (and yes I know Tifa's in Crisis Core, but I still maintain that Dissidia 012 has been her biggest post-KH2 appearance so far). LOL Lightning.
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#237 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 11:24:53 PM | message detail
#238 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/8/2013 11:59:45 PM | message detail | (edited)
Tom Nook vs. Yuna.

Who ya got?
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#239 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 11:27:34 PM | message detail
On CuteFAQs, it's a tossup.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
#240 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 11:33:25 PM | message detail
Man someone made a Red rally for this match, haha how pathetic
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#241 | Averia | Posted 9/8/2013 11:37:15 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Man someone made a Red rally for this match, haha how pathetic


Vivi has made some cuts, that cannot be allowed !
#242 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/8/2013 11:58:18 PM | message detail
Tom Nook – 30.05%
Master Chief – 29.77%


I can't
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
#243 | pjbasis | Posted 9/8/2013 11:59:17 PM | message detail
ya go my pyramid head
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#244 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/9/2013 12:16:22 AM | message detail
Paluenta and Knuckles is a debated match. LOL
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#245 | Axl_Rose_85 | Posted 9/9/2013 12:43:59 AM | message detail
Bad result. Only thing worse than this would be the two Pokemons > Snake.

Ugh.

I don't know what I'd do if that actually happened

*fingers crossed
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#246 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2013 12:51:41 AM | message detail
Squall almost won an update outright. Beat Vivi but tied with Red.
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#247 | TyrekeEvans13 | Posted 9/9/2013 12:55:04 AM | message detail
This strikes me as a really poor showing by Red

What are the stats suppose to be?
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#248 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2013 12:56:36 AM | message detail
There are no stats for what Red is supposed to be at.

This showing indicates that he's weaker than either of these two guys on his own, but that honestly shouldn't be THAT surprising.
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#249 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/9/2013 1:16:09 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Man someone made a Red rally for this match, haha how pathetic


This is clearly anti-Pokemon rally now
#250 | creativename | Posted 9/9/2013 1:29:00 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
There are no stats for what Red is supposed to be at.

This showing indicates that he's weaker than either of these two guys on his own, but that honestly shouldn't be THAT surprising.

I would think Squall would be stronger than Red without getting SFFed by Vivi, but how does this showing indicate that?

This seems like a terrible performance by Squall to me.
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