Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1163

#101 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/8/2013 9:26:55 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Vivi is getting bandwagoned, that's all. I really, really guarantee you don't see Vivi blowing out Squall in R1 of this contest.

Hmm yes this is true.

So perhaps I retract my statement about Mario looking better than :) Mario only looks very slightly better, as Vivi likely absorbed some of his strength Highlander style.


Yeah, it should be noted that Vivi was weaker than Fox in 2010. There's no reason for him to spike this much in the last three years, so beating Squall is is nothing but bandwagon effect in full swing, if there are no rallies going on.
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#102 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/8/2013 9:28:39 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
By the way, Red looks like crap here compared to Pokemon's other performances.


Pokemon rallies cause a power scaling effect. Red shouldn't really be getting much in terms of long dedicated rallies since he's winning by quite a bit right now. Right now we're mostly seeing base strength Red. Also Red should be weaker than the top Pokemon anyways.
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#103 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 9/8/2013 9:28:53 PM | message detail
Christ, is Vivi the Barry Bonds of this contest or what? Weirdest boost ever.

You know his night vote is going to be substantially better than Red's, too. I don't think the latter is in danger of losing or anything, but this could definitely look interesting when all is said and done.
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#104 | xp1337 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:28:53 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
xp1337 posted...
saying stuff like what?


Trying to act like this result is a legitimate show of strength for Vivi! Nobody was saying that about Squirtle because, well, we knew better!

Not trying to knock Vivi or anything. Like I said, he's a very solid midcarder. Maybe even an upper midcarder at this point.

But this result is inflated.

Obviously it's inflated! I'm more curious of how inflated we think it is!

It's looking like my recollection of where Vivi was is a lot lower than where he really was! That's why I had to ask!
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#105 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 9:29:26 PM | message detail
This is easily within Vivi's grasp to make interesting. So far all he's got is a bandwagon and a /v/ thread that just went up. All he has to do is get something slapped on /b/ too, take a screenshot, and put that on imgur and make it the subject of an r/4chan thread. Then have the link to the poll in a comment of said thread, naturally.
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#106 | Xuxon | Posted 9/8/2013 9:29:57 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 9/9/2013 12:25:00 AM | #098
Xuxon posted...
he's done in this match. no chance of looking respectable even. but it doesn't mean his popularity has vanished permanently.


Eh, Squall will probably look fine by the time this is said and done. Red will hemorrhage percentage overnight, and Squall will start stalling Vivi's gains eventually.

I think he's still got an outside shot at second once we get out of this early vote, and if he takes second, he won't look back.

the best i see Squall doing here is like.. 27. far from what i'd call respectable. and he's not getting second.
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#107 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 9:30:38 PM | message detail
Yeah, if Vivi can get something going, he could make it interesting. His natural night vote would probably let him make consistent cuts on Red overnight anyway. Throw in a rally, and we might have something.
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#108 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 9:30:55 PM | message detail
My Giants lose despite 10 yards per attempt and 450 yards from Eli due to 6 f***ing turnovers.

And now I have to watch Squall destroy my beloved Vivi's chances against another random Pokemon entrant.

Not a good night for my rooting interests. I is sad :(

-Tofa7- posted...
Willing to bet a lot of people overrate Pokemon next contest because of this.

Depends on if it's 1v1 or not.

Pokemon will do better in multi-ways due to rally strength, bandwagons being more powerful in multi-ways, and also they are independent from most fanbases and thus resist LFF better.

in 1v1s many of their advantages go away.

But they will still do very well in 1v1s, this site has gone Pokemon crazy.
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#109 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 9:31:25 PM | message detail
LOL Giants

Glad to have Victor Cruz on my fantasy team though
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#110 | xp1337 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:32:02 PM | message detail
Jets with the best record in NY

how long can this last
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#111 | JJH777 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:32:42 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
This is easily within Vivi's grasp to make interesting. So far all he's got is a bandwagon and a /v/ thread that just went up. All he has to do is get something slapped on /b/ too, take a screenshot, and put that on imgur and make it the subject of an r/4chan thread. Then have the link to the poll in a comment of said thread, naturally.


I can't find a vivi rally on /v/
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#112 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2013 9:33:04 PM | message detail
Red is waaaay too far ahead for Vivi to make a match of this, even with a rally, I think.
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#113 | JJH777 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:33:29 PM | message detail
Ahh dang Red just gained % for the first time...
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#114 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 9:33:59 PM | message detail
Eh, it's only 400 votes.

The rally would need to get going before this gets out of hand though.
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#115 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/8/2013 9:34:07 PM | message detail
Seeing Squall get embarrassed like this is beautiful.
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#116 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 9:34:25 PM | message detail
JJH777 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
This is easily within Vivi's grasp to make interesting. So far all he's got is a bandwagon and a /v/ thread that just went up. All he has to do is get something slapped on /b/ too, take a screenshot, and put that on imgur and make it the subject of an r/4chan thread. Then have the link to the poll in a comment of said thread, naturally.


I can't find a vivi rally on /v/


There are two currently.
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#117 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2013 9:35:00 PM | message detail
Red has another 25 minutes to bury Vivi with the Power Hour. And FF9 has a good early vote, anyway. If it were Squall in 1st and not Vivi, I'd consider it; his trends are much more pronounced.
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#118 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/8/2013 9:35:17 PM | message detail
JJH777 posted...
I can't find a vivi rally on /v/


/v/res/209014289
/v/res/209011015

Those are the locations of the 2 Vivi rallies right now.
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#119 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 9:36:19 PM | message detail
So is it time to look forward to Draven/Snake/Samus and Mewtwo/Pikachu/Charizard yet?
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#120 | Sorozone | Posted 9/8/2013 9:36:37 PM | message detail
Doubt a /v/ rally would actually help much. A bit maybe. /v/ also likes Red, so yeah. It helped a lot that Vivi was super close to Mario the whole match as well.
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#121 | snoocete | Posted 9/8/2013 9:36:42 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
snoocete posted...
So you mean Vivi's getting reverse antivotes for beating Mario?

That's like... normal votes


what is this post

My exact reaction to that post as well...


I mean like, how would you differentiate between this being a bandwagon thing for Vivi beating Mario

instead of Vivi just being naturally preferred over Squall
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#122 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:36:43 PM | message detail
Vivi has all night to try to do something
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#123 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/8/2013 9:36:49 PM | message detail
Wow this is baffling. Vivi is already commanding second place over Squall who by all accounts beats him 1v1.

My only explanation is that - like Pokémon - Vivi's support base is really loyal. Add more contestants, they still stick with him.
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#124 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 9:38:15 PM | message detail
But yeah someone is going to have to put in the work for Vivi to win this one, rally-wise. I don't think anyone here wants it quite that much.

I'll settle for Red looking not too great here, as 57% on a heavily leeched Vivi in the Power Hour isn't anything to write home about. I just hope Charizard doesn't crush him too badly or he might have a chance next round. :/
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#125 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 9:38:18 PM | message detail
IngmarBirdman posted...
My only explanation is that - like Pokémon - Vivi's support base is really loyal. Add more contestants, they still stick with him.


If that were the case, he wouldn't have lost to Pikachu in 2007!
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#126 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2013 9:38:56 PM | message detail
Vivi just looks stronger this year, in every round. Zidane looked stronger, too. FF9 is doing work.
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#127 | pjbasis | Posted 9/8/2013 9:40:18 PM | message detail
Zidane looked stronger?
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#128 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 9:41:24 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Zidane looked stronger?


If you consider his percentage on Dante to be legit, then yeah.

But if he's stronger, it's not by a lot. He's still only at 54.5% on Ridley.
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#129 | Lopen | Posted 9/8/2013 9:41:33 PM | message detail
Zidane absolutely looked stronger now that Squirtle has legitimized the r2 result a bit. I mean it's not like Dante fell off a cliff with any reasonable Squirtle estimate and he did pretty well relative to Dante
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#130 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/8/2013 9:41:53 PM | message detail
Zidane looked respectable relative to Dante, but who really knows. Zidane's second match runs through one of THOSE WACKY POKEMON, and his first match runs through Ridley, who received an almost certainly elevated 2010 value by facing Cloud.
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#131 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/8/2013 9:41:58 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Zidane looked stronger?


He was really close to Dante, who didn't do that badly compared to Squirtle considering he beat Cloud.
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#132 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 9:42:01 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
But yeah someone is going to have to put in the work for Vivi to win this one, rally-wise. I don't think anyone here wants it quite that much.

I'll settle for Red looking not too great here, as 57% on a heavily leeched Vivi in the Power Hour isn't anything to write home about. I just hope Charizard doesn't crush him too badly or he might have a chance next round. :/

If Vivi gets to 45% or higher on Red - and I'd be very surprised if he didn't - I think it's clear he'd beat Red 1v1.

Pokemon would still be strong but in a normal 1v1 24 hour format we wouldn't be seeing anything like 5 of the final 9 being Pokemonz.
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#133 | pjbasis | Posted 9/8/2013 9:44:44 PM | message detail
Hopefully rallying doesn't even happen in the next contest and pokemon just falls off the map completely
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#134 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 9:44:47 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Zidane absolutely looked stronger now that Squirtle has legitimized the r2 result a bit. I mean it's not like Dante fell off a cliff with any reasonable Squirtle estimate and he did pretty well relative to Dante

The thing there is that if Squirtle really did get like 7000 net rallied votes vs. Cloud, Cloud would beat Dante by much more than the stats say.

FF7's weakness is rallying/anti-votes, but who is going to rally for Dante? The stats say Cloud would get around 58% on Dante but I think he'd get at least 5 points more than that.

Dante is not incredibly non-linear like Pokemon are.
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#135 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/8/2013 9:44:50 PM | message detail
Let's assume for a moment that the next non-Character Battle contest that SBAllen said he's already thought up is... Series Contest II.

The Legend of Zelda
Final Fantasy
Super Mario
Metal Gear Solid
Metroid
Super Smash Bros.

Where do you rank Pokemon among this list of powerful series, and is there any series not on this list that you feel might beat Pokemon?
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#136 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:44:57 PM | message detail
Huh, my Red > Vivi > Squall pick looks solid. Too bad that's the reverse of the correct result here.

Oh well, time to sit back and watch Red bleed overnight.
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#137 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/8/2013 9:45:42 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
IngmarBirdman posted...
My only explanation is that - like Pokémon - Vivi's support base is really loyal. Add more contestants, they still stick with him.


If that were the case, he wouldn't have lost to Pikachu in 2007!


It's not just that that bothers me - it's also the fact he was unable to smash Tidus with SFF.
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#138 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 9:45:59 PM | message detail
#139 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:46:22 PM | message detail
I think you guys expected too much from Red, I mean look at what Ocelot did to Auron, add in some LFF and Vivi has a great chance at defeating Red head to head.

Too bad Squall couldn't get his act together, he could be winning here.
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#140 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/8/2013 9:46:25 PM | message detail
Welp, this gives me another 1 green, 2 red. I've called two matches correctly this round. That's kind of depressing.
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#141 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 9:47:15 PM | message detail
Another series contest would be utterly pointless. Not even worth discussing!

We need a normal 1v1 best game ever contest, where OoT, FF7 and RBY are all kept far apart from each other so that they can't meet before the semis.

I think RBY beats FF7 at this point due to the huge rallying it would do...though in a 1v1 you certainly can't count FF7 out.
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#142 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/8/2013 9:47:17 PM | message detail
So far so good here for Red. Whether he impresses or not is not a real concern. All he has to do is win.
#143 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:47:27 PM | message detail
At this point, I would take SMB > Pokemon > FF. FF gets way too much flak for not delivering in the second half of its life (read: after FFX).
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#144 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 9:48:18 PM | message detail
Yeah, Red's final margin of victory here is irrelevant. He's sabotaging Charizard next round against Samus one way or the other, so it doesn't really matter.
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#145 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:48:35 PM | message detail
At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if FFVII goes out and loses to a top tier Mario game or LttP.
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#146 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:48:45 PM | message detail
SSB vs Pokemon vs FF vs MGS 4-way series contest match!
j/k
#147 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:49:27 PM | message detail
Yeah, Red's final margin of victory here is irrelevant. He's sabotaging Charizard next round against Samus one way or the other, so it doesn't really matter.

Didn't stop Pikachu from winning over Sora

>_>
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#148 | swordz9 | Posted 9/8/2013 9:49:39 PM | message detail
Or we see a b8 worse case scenario where everybody abandons Pikachu and rallied Squirtle beats Snake while everybody abandons Red and Charizard beats Samus. I can only imagine all the rage and depression people would have.
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#149 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 9:50:02 PM | message detail
If Samus loses to Charizard, we're changing "pulling a Sora" to "pulling a Samus."
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#150 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 9:50:32 PM | message detail
Red not breaking 55% on Vivi by the end of this would be a flop. Not a major flop (like actually LOSING to the Black Mage), but still definitely a flop. He has all the advantages.
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