Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1162

#401 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/8/2013 4:05:58 PM | message detail
Brawl. Snake gets a little of his strength from there and some of those votes would go to Pikachu, in theory.

Like we're not talking that much, but it's some connection, which is more than what Pikachu and Cloud have.
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#402 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 4:08:43 PM | message detail
Base Draven today isn't Shepard level.

Base Draven who voters realize is beating Link is Shepard level. Cut Link out of the equation when Draven's rallies were down and Shepard would have been kicking his face in.
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#403 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/8/2013 4:09:44 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Brawl. Snake gets a little of his strength from there and some of those votes would go to Pikachu, in theory.

Like we're not talking that much, but it's some connection, which is more than what Pikachu and Cloud have.


I actually think Pikachu would hurt Cloud more, due to Cloud's huge draw of anti-votes and Pikachu's casual recognition.
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#404 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/8/2013 4:11:13 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
Brawl. Snake gets a little of his strength from there and some of those votes would go to Pikachu, in theory.

Like we're not talking that much, but it's some connection, which is more than what Pikachu and Cloud have.


I actually think Pikachu would hurt Cloud more, due to Cloud's huge draw of anti-votes and Pikachu's casual recognition.


doesn't this hurt Snake because he's not picking up the anti-votes -_-
#405 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 4:12:48 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Greyfeld posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
Brawl. Snake gets a little of his strength from there and some of those votes would go to Pikachu, in theory.

Like we're not talking that much, but it's some connection, which is more than what Pikachu and Cloud have.


I actually think Pikachu would hurt Cloud more, due to Cloud's huge draw of anti-votes and Pikachu's casual recognition.


doesn't this hurt Snake because he's not picking up the anti-votes -_-


Yes, anti-votes are most effective when they can be channeled into a single target. Snake/Cloud/Pikachu would have been unfavorable for Snake. I think he could still win, but not a favorable setup at all.
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#406 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/8/2013 4:27:55 PM | message detail
I was kinda disappointed that Sora's match turned out to be Kirby/Terra/Peach all over again...
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#407 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/8/2013 4:29:41 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Greyfeld posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
Brawl. Snake gets a little of his strength from there and some of those votes would go to Pikachu, in theory.

Like we're not talking that much, but it's some connection, which is more than what Pikachu and Cloud have.


I actually think Pikachu would hurt Cloud more, due to Cloud's huge draw of anti-votes and Pikachu's casual recognition.


doesn't this hurt Snake because he's not picking up the anti-votes -_-


I suppose I'm sort of lumping anti-votes and apathy votes together. If you have Snake v. Cloud, and you don't care, you're going to vote for whichever one you're more familiar with or happens to look cooler (which is mostly going to be Cloud on this website). However, I'm almost positive that RBY Pokemon characters are lightning rods for apathy votes.
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#408 | FFDragon | Posted 9/8/2013 4:31:18 PM | message detail | (edited)
I thought base draven was weaker than Jak

and Chie.
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#409 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/8/2013 4:34:56 PM | message detail
The real question, though, is who do you think pulls second place: Squirtle or Pikachu?
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#410 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/8/2013 4:35:52 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Wait so Daven's rally topics getting deleted is now being called a "fluke"? I thought that was a specific directive from the mods of the LoL subreddit and would carry on into the match with Mewtwo?


Was my understanding, people seem to be disregarding it for no real reason. Someone was saying the OP deleted the thread but we saw the mod comments on it and new threads getting deleted after so I'm not sure why they'd think that.
#411 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/8/2013 4:36:10 PM | message detail
If it was a night match only how much would Samus beat Tifa 1vs1? I guess in a 24 hour match it is around 55-45.
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#412 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/8/2013 4:46:01 PM | message detail
I think another part of why unrallied (well, not-extensively reddit rallied at the time anyways) Draven was still so "strong" was having an obsessive fanbase. The site as a whole doesn't care about him and didn't even know who he was, but the nature of the game and League of Legends staying in the Top 10 list for so long should indicate a resilient minority fanbase. I'd guess unrallied Draven's percent floor and ceiling are closer than just about anyone in the contest.

Also wow, League of Legends' average review score on this site is terrible. It has a 6.6. For comparison, Devil May Cry 2 has a 7.0, Suikoden IV has a 6.7, Paper Mario Sticker Star has a 6.4, Fire Emblem Shadow Dragon has a 6.2 (should be slightly higher; I know several are troll/alt reviews which I could point out if they weren't by friends and I didn't think it was funny). It's down there with games widely disliked by their own series's fanbase. It's not Diablo III or Sonic 2006-levels of bad, but it's only one step up.

Didn't average review score used to be one of the factors used to screen out joke entrants from games contests?
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#413 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/8/2013 4:54:40 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
I think another part of why unrallied (well, not-extensively reddit rallied at the time anyways) Draven was still so "strong" was having an obsessive fanbase. The site as a whole doesn't care about him and didn't even know who he was, but the nature of the game and League of Legends staying in the Top 10 list for so long should indicate a resilient minority fanbase. I'd guess unrallied Draven's percent floor and ceiling are closer than just about anyone in the contest.

Also wow, League of Legends' average review score on this site is terrible. It has a 6.6. For comparison, Devil May Cry 2 has a 7.0, Suikoden IV has a 6.7, Paper Mario Sticker Star has a 6.4, Fire Emblem Shadow Dragon has a 6.2 (should be slightly higher; I know several are troll/alt reviews which I could point out if they weren't by friends and I didn't think it was funny). It's down there with games widely disliked by their own series's fanbase. It's not Diablo III or Sonic 2006-levels of bad, but it's only one step up.

Didn't average review score used to be one of the factors used to screen out joke entrants from games contests?


spoilers: Allen is gonna mysteriously remove that requirement for LoL and only LoL for the next games contest
#414 | snoocete | Posted 9/8/2013 5:33:50 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
So...yeah. Draven winning needed an act of god (or satan!) to win. In addition to absurd admin bias.


Well that's one way for them to drop Draven

Tell them he won over Link only because lord Teemo (who they call Satan) willed it :)
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#415 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/8/2013 5:36:35 PM | message detail
snoocete posted...
Well that's one way for them to drop Draven

Tell them he won over Link only because lord Teemo (who they call Satan) willed it :)


replace Draven with Teemo every other update
when they complain about the blatant sabotage, just tell them if people really wanted to vote for Draven, they'd just wait 5 minutes
#416 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/8/2013 5:40:01 PM | message detail
Any pics for the next match yet? Seems late.
#417 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/8/2013 5:43:17 PM | message detail
If Pikachu SFFs Squirtle (and he will since water's weak to electric), we'll get Crono > Cloud.

Sounds about right!
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#418 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/8/2013 5:45:11 PM | message detail | (edited)
Also, T/F: Squirtle SFFs Charmander, Charmander SFFs Bulbasaur, Bulbasaur SFFs Squirtle!

e: Not in the same match, of course, that would be silly.
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#419 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/8/2013 5:46:38 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Also, T/F: Squirtle SFFs Charmander, Charmander SFFs Bulbasaur, Bulbasaur SFFs Squirtle!

e: Not in the same match, of course, that would be silly.


oh yeah, now wrap your mind around this:
Squirtle/Charmander/Bulbasaur 3-way
now how does the SFF work
#420 | MajinZidane | Posted 9/8/2013 5:48:12 PM | message detail
spoilers: Allen is gonna mysteriously remove that requirement for LoL and only LoL for the next games contest


yeah, but we're okay with that, right?
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#421 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/8/2013 5:48:33 PM | message detail
They'd all simultaneously SFF each other!

It'd be the perfect situation for Guybrush Threepwood to win with 60% of the vote!
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#422 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/8/2013 5:50:38 PM | message detail
40/40/20 match, with Bulbasaur being the 20 because lmao who even cares
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#423 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 6:01:40 PM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
I thought base draven was weaker than Jak

and Chie.


In his first match, he was.

He was definitely stronger in the very brief glimpse we saw of him in that round 2 match before the rallies kicked in. He was doing better on Ryu than he was doing on Jak.
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#424 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/8/2013 6:13:30 PM | message detail
oh yeah, link to past stat topics anyone?
#425 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/8/2013 6:24:56 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
oh yeah, link to past stat topics anyone?

http://www.thengamer.com/stats/
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#426 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/8/2013 6:34:26 PM | message detail
Match CXVI: (6) Vivi vs. (2) Squall Leonhart vs. (4) Pokemon Trainer Red

Previous Round

Vivi – 41.27%
Mario – 41.09%
Ganondorf – 17.64%

Squall Leonhart – 39.38%
Missingno – 35.81%
Amaterasu – 24.81%

Pokemon Trainer Red – 51.58%
Urdnot Wrex – 27.30%
Wario – 21.12%

Analysis

Pokemon is so lucky in this contest when it comes to bracket placement. Mario was supposed to be here and Missingno had a decent chance at reaching the third round yet Red is treated with two Square characters and is the favourite to reach the next round. Pokemon fans do not seem to care if their rallies essentially screw them in the next round so I expect a push from Red.

Squall fans must be upset; they could have been the ones upsetting Mario in this match had Vivi not stolen his thunder and now he risks getting LFF to death. I would take Squall to win over Red in a fair match, but with Vivi I doubt he will have the power. I doubt Squall will be able to SFF Vivi to the extent he did to Tidus in 2006 because Vivi is a bit of a fan favourite. Besides even pulling off that much SFF may not be enough to pull the upset.

Should Vivi get rallied again I can see him winning over Squall, but I doubt the rallying will be enough to place him over Red. Squall will not fold so easily and I doubt fans will jump ship from Squall to Vivi even if Vivi gets a rally.

I guess you could make a case for any of the characters to win, but I feel confident Red will be able to pull off the win. Only reason I could see him losing would be because fans know that two Pokemon entrant next round would be the end of them, but that did not stop both Squirtle and Pikachu to reach the next round where they will face against Solid Snake.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mario > Squall Leonhart and Pokemon Trainer Red

charmander6000’s Prediction: Pokemon Trainer Red – 39.53%, Squall Leonhart – 35.67%, Vivi – 24.80%
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#427 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 6:40:00 PM | message detail
I don't think Red advancing hurts Pokemon because Zard wasn't beating Samus anyway.

So Pokemon fans don't need to forward think or anything.
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#428 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/8/2013 6:41:51 PM | message detail
Samus is looking pretty bad against Tifa, at the very least Charizard would have a chance
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#429 | pjbasis | Posted 9/8/2013 6:43:03 PM | message detail
How does this look bad at all? Isn't Tifa Vincent level?





...oh
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#430 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 6:49:40 PM | message detail
Even if Tifa was Cloud level this isn't the kind of performance that would make me say that Samus is safe against a random Pokeymanz. Samus/Squall/Charizard is a nonzero chance for Charizard.
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#431 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 6:50:03 PM | message detail
#432 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 6:50:32 PM | message detail
Also, match pics still not up yet. Hope Bacon didn't forget!
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#433 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/8/2013 6:56:22 PM | message detail
Has to wait until the last minute so people don't see that he used smiling Squall in every single pic.
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#434 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/8/2013 6:58:10 PM | message detail
They're up now!
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#435 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 6:58:30 PM | message detail
#436 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 7:01:15 PM | message detail
Yeah, real even pics. Guess Red isn't seen to need the help.

Vivi is gonna be a ridiculous drain on Squall, anyway. I could see Vivi > Squall before Squall > Red (though I expect the standard Red > Squall > Vivi pick).
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#437 | snoocete | Posted 9/8/2013 7:02:08 PM | message detail
Here's hoping only the pokemons have solid backing and their trainers are left to dust

Vivi ftw!
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#438 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 7:03:54 PM | message detail | (edited)
Eh, I'd be kind of surprised if Vivi beat Squall, even if he gets rallied. The gap between Squall and Vivi isn't that much smaller than the gap between Tidus and Squall (historically anyway), and that's indirectly. We already saw how tough it was for Missingno to close that gap.

Any rally Vivi gets has to counteract whatever SFF Squall lays on him because the site isn't going to abandon the stronger FF character to support Vivi. They're not going to know anything about outside rallies, so yeah, whatever rally power Vivi gets is going to have to counteract the SFF before he even starts to close the indirect gap.

I mean, it COULD happen. Any result here wouldn't really surprise me TOO much other than Red getting last.
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#439 | pjbasis | Posted 9/8/2013 7:11:35 PM | message detail
If Squall wins here I would almost say it was a great contest.
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#440 | SilverSwift | Posted 9/8/2013 7:24:11 PM | message detail | (edited)
This is a disaster for the FF fans. Both scenarios are horrible - a rallied Vivi isn't going anywhere because Squall is a monster and won't fold, whilst Vivi certainly isn't weak enough even in base form for Squall to stop the Red juggernaut. Can't see beyond Red unless Vivi gets utterly abandoned, which is hard to envisage.

Greyfeld posted...
The real question, though, is who do you think pulls second place: Squirtle or Pikachu?


With RallyFAQs, who knows? Squirtle's probably favourite. In terms of base strength though, I think Pikachu could still be stronger; he's shown genuine strength repeatedly in contests, and is dangerous to almost anyone with good placement. Up against another pokemon, though, he's probably more susceptible since he shares Kirby et al's advantage of standing out like hell in nearly every match he's in; an advantage he won't have against Squirtle.

...think I just talked myself into Squirtle > Pikachu (but Pika is probably stronger indirectly). What d'you reckon Greyfeld?
#441 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 7:27:31 PM | message detail
I'd take Pikachu > Squirtle in terms of base strength, but in that match? Who knows.
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#442 | snoocete | Posted 9/8/2013 7:36:43 PM | message detail
Red is a juggernaut?

Looking at Pikachu/Blue I get the feeling that the trainers aren't as much of a threat as the actual pokes.
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#443 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 7:38:17 PM | message detail
Yeah, it's possible Red isn't quite as rallyable as the normal Pokemon.

Like I said yesterday, I think Squall has enough of a strength advantage over Red to win even with Vivi here, but it'll come down to RallyFAQs, I think.
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#444 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 7:40:12 PM | message detail
And how much actual SFF Squall is able to apply, which is the main issue here.

Can't see him being able to get the 70/30 split he got on Tidus in 2006.
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#445 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/8/2013 7:41:02 PM | message detail
If Squall is close, I'll have to vote Red. Hopefully Red doesn't need the help and I can vote Vivi.
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#446 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 7:41:17 PM | message detail
#447 | TheOceIot | Posted 9/8/2013 7:41:54 PM | message detail
Alright Squall, time to save my bracket!
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#448 | JJH777 | Posted 9/8/2013 7:41:55 PM | message detail
lightning are you going to rally Vivi again? Please say yes
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#449 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/8/2013 7:42:11 PM | message detail
I'm picking Red > Squall.

Obviously this is just so I can have a red number next to Red's name.
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#450 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 7:42:35 PM | message detail
JJH777 posted...
lightning are you going to rally Vivi again? Please say yes


you people

this is why Red is going to win
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