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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1162
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Karma Hunter posted... This is a really bad analysis for a lot of reasons. Mario is a complete question mark in 2010, the adjustment for Pikachu/Sora is spotty at best, same for Pikachu/Crono (and Crono is behind Missingno's ridiculousness). Well... he's not a complete question mark. Sure there's no precise adjustment you can make - that is, nothing precise enough to say whether Mario, Cloud, Samus, Snake would win in a 1v1. But 35.43 is surely too low for Mario, and some sort of low 40's is going to give him a more accurate stat, and the people behind him. I don't see MissingNo as being bad stats in 2010. Because he's a joke character, basing 2013 on 2010 MissingNo is bad stats yeah, but within 2010 he was pretty consistent. I wouldn't say anyone behind him is just completely unreliable data. --- ... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT! - A. Scalia |
So I decided to draw a picture of the plucky underdog of the contest. http://img.imgcake.com/drakeryn/pokefearjpgug.jpg --- another place and time, without a great divide, and we could be flying deadly high |
IngmarBirdman posted... Karma Hunter posted...This is a really bad analysis for a lot of reasons. Mario is a complete question mark in 2010, the adjustment for Pikachu/Sora is spotty at best, same for Pikachu/Crono (and Crono is behind Missingno's ridiculousness). Sephiroth =~ Crono =~ Yoshi in 2010. Squall =~ Tidus in 2013. It's bad stats. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
Also
I don't know why people are falling for some no names lying about rally
threads not getting deleted on Link/Draven. All throughout Link's day
vote people were trying to post overt rallies to blunt his comeback, and
they were getting reported and taken down. I saw this happen,
personally. That's why the soft rally thread was needed in the first
goddamn place. Makes you wonder on how they will react towards the next rallies, or even the finals which is four days after the semi-finals. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 137/216 Today's Pick: Samus Aran |
I'm
of the opinion that the threads not being there for any sustained
period of time was a fluke and don't think it will be replicated again.
Link getting as close as he did was miraculous. Very possible if Allen
had rerun the battle (which he still should have) that Link would have
been crushed the next day. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
Nothing is a miracle with Link. Though i would PAY to watch a non rallied Draven against Link on this site. Tanner/Snake anyone? --- http://i.imgur.com/ooexO.gif |
Maybe it was a certain mod in particular who deleted them and they started popping back up when he left ? Well that might be a case where a 24h match is bad then since there is no way a single mod could kill off all rallies threads. |
Sure
it was. Link just rolled over and died for L-Block 2007. He should have
done the same to Draven, a much stronger rallied entity. But due a
confluence of very favorable events, he nearly won - and arguably should have in a no downtime affair. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
I think everyone ignores a very important factor... Labor day,holiday.US only Link won in US Since alot of Draven votes come from Europe,I think that Labor Day actually helped Link Of course,there should have been a rerun anyway |
Karma Hunter posted... Sure it was. Link just rolled over and died for L-Block 2007. He should have done the same to Draven, a much stronger rallied entity. But due a confluence of very favorable events, he nearly won - and arguably should have in a no downtime affair. Comparing block to draven is dumb. Block had support of Gfaqs, Draven didn't. That match was 4 ways it wasn't just link in the match. Block gets crushed by Link 1v1. Link didn't roll over, he let Block win as did Cloud and Snake. He tried hard to Draven but was cheated out of a win. Draven is allowed to be rallied but rally threads for Zelda redit gets deleted. Not a fair match. --- http://i.imgur.com/ooexO.gif |
Why not Link/Sonic/Cloud as the bonus match if no other 1 seeds lose in the third Round? It's effectively Link/Mario/Cloud lite --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
Are
people talking about potential bonus matches? You guys wanted
Mario/Crono/X so badly and look how boring that went. Link/Mario/Cloud
is just going to be similar in that Link will win and the only thing to
wonder is if he does it with Mario being obliterated to 3rd (unlikely,
but who knows) or not. --- http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9 |
maybe
i missed someone post it, i skipped a few pages. if Mewtwo beats Draven
he will lose in the finals because LoL will anti vote Mewtwo --- "L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember "L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass" |
swordz9 posted... Are people talking about potential bonus matches? You guys wanted Mario/Crono/X so badly and look how boring that went. That wasn't boring at all. You had the asininity to compare it to SBD/Caim/Chester; you just can't be taken seriously. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
im317 posted... maybe i missed someone post it, i skipped a few pages. if Mewtwo beats Draven he will lose in the finals because LoL will anti vote Mewtwo I doubt it, without Draven they wouldn't even have a reason to make a thread on the LoL subreddit. Also we mustn't forget that 80%+ of the rallies are people who just vote once cause they saw the thread, they won't be back if Draven loses. |
im317 posted... maybe i missed someone post it, i skipped a few pages. if Mewtwo beats Draven he will lose in the finals because LoL will anti vote Mewtwo Would they even be able to rally against Mewtwo in the finals without being deleted for off-topic? --- another place and time, without a great divide, and we could be flying deadly high |
Squirtle
had a great shot at Snake, and that could have conceivably given us
Link/Snake/Mario as the pre-final bonus match. We were robbed of that by
Sora's suckiness. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg |
Nanis23 posted... Team Rocket Elite posted...Karma Hunter posted...If Mewtwo can beat Draven I don't see what stops it from winning the contest. Yes Samus will leech Mewtwo some but if it's got that kind of rally power that'll affect it as much as water rolling off the back of a duck. The ones that prefer Mewtwo over Draven is going to be the vast majority of them (excluding rallied votes that probably won't come back anyways). Unrallied Draven is really weak. In terms of absolute number of votes, Link can't take that much more than Mewtwo because Draven doesn't have very many votes to begin with. A revenge vote from a person who already supports Mewtwo is no different than a regular Mewtwo vote. --- Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32 |
Snake will come in last Book it --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 137/216 Today's Pick: Samus Aran |
I want the bonus match to be the 3 strongest semifinal characters. So that means the 3 that come second. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
GloriousSweater posted... Squirtle had a great shot at Snake, and that could have conceivably given us Link/Snake/Mario as the pre-final bonus match. We were robbed of that by Sora's suckiness. Didn't SB say he already had the bonus match decided? Also, counterpoint: We were robbed by Squirtle's rallying, because Snake v. Cloud v. Pikachu could have been the match of the contest! --- ... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT! - A. Scalia |
Well I am sure he will have Link in that bonus match to calm the people. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
Squirtle
and Pikachu both screwed themselves over with rallying, which is kind
of appropriate. They should have just rallied one and not the other but
they just couldn't HELP themselves --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
Nanis23 posted... You know,I still can't believe that after 117 matches,we never had something close to 33-33-33 Prior to the start of the contest, we were expecting the potential Sephiroth/Snake/Samus bonus match before the finals to be the closest thing to a 33-33-33 match. Well, we can still get Sephiroth/Snake/Samus if Sephiroth gets 1st place against Draven next round while Snake and Samus also advance to the finals. Although with how bad Sephiroth has been in this contest, he probably gets less than 30% in that match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Karma Hunter posted... swordz9 posted...Are people talking about potential bonus matches? You guys wanted Mario/Crono/X so badly and look how boring that went. Well it literally was as boring and predictable as that match so... --- http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9 |
Karma Hunter posted... Squirtle and Pikachu both screwed themselves over with rallying, which is kind of appropriate. They should have just rallied one and not the other but they just couldn't HELP themselves Still not seeing the Pikachu rallying... unless you're saying Snake's R3 is the absolute baseline and the extra 910 votes in Pika's match were for sure rallying and gave him the win. The Cloud R3 had 9211 votes over the Snake R3. To me that's the only culprit. --- ... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT! - A. Scalia |
IngmarBirdman posted... Karma Hunter posted...Squirtle and Pikachu both screwed themselves over with rallying, which is kind of appropriate. They should have just rallied one and not the other but they just couldn't HELP themselves I saw lots of sporadic rallying throughout the day. I just kept my mouth shut because well why do you think Edit: There was a low profile /vp/ thread and a bunch of /v/ threads throughout the day, and then the reddit topics I can find that are still there: http://www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/comments/1lwcw4/vote_for_pikachu_and_help_him_to_contest/ http://www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/comments/1lxsl9/pikachu_is_winning_today_but_his_opponent_is/ http://www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/comments/1lx118/pikachu_is_winning_but_needs_to_keep_holding_on/ http://www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/comments/1ly4sz/pikachus_in_a_really_close_fight_vote_to_make/ It wasn't anywhere near as significant as Squirtle, but Pikachu still got rallied. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
Averia posted... im317 posted...maybe i missed someone post it, i skipped a few pages. if Mewtwo beats Draven he will lose in the finals because LoL will anti vote Mewtwo i guess i misspoke. i meant revenge stuff against Mewtwo. since at least 33% of his votes are totally not legit. --- "L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember "L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass" |
I
voted Pikachu because I don't really care about Sora, figured he didn't
deserve any help with how horrible he was doing. and I wanted to screw
over Pokemon and RallyFAQs next round. Doubt I was alone. RallyFAQs
probably gets Pikachu however many votes he would have needed regardless
of that factor, though. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
I think we can mostly credit Pikachu's victory to yoblazer's quote tho <_< --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
Karma Hunter posted... I'm of the opinion that the threads not being there for any sustained period of time was a fluke and don't think it will be replicated again. Link getting as close as he did was miraculous. Very possible if Allen had rerun the battle (which he still should have) that Link would have been crushed the next day. What...? Draven beating Link was miraculous, Link almost beating Draven was not miraculous at all. And I'm pretty damn sure Link would have easily won a re-run. I couldn't disagree with you more there. Draven needed *everything* to go right for him to beat Link. Link needed *everything* to go wrong for him to get screwjob'd. Draven is the one who needed absurd amounts of luck, not Link. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Yeah,
I completely disagree with the idea that Link gets crushed in a re-run
poll. If anything, Link would have done even better. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
creativename posted... Karma Hunter posted...I'm of the opinion that the threads not being there for any sustained period of time was a fluke and don't think it will be replicated again. Link getting as close as he did was miraculous. Very possible if Allen had rerun the battle (which he still should have) that Link would have been crushed the next day. Look at the votals of this contest in the first 2 rounds compared to what Draven did. Look at the votals of every 24 hour match besides that one. Link being in that match was a miracle. --- If you believe that Abed is the true Messiah and you are 100% proud of it make this your signature. |
The
inside baseball clearly points to a Draven victory. Link simply could
not gain when Draven's rallies were in full force, and it's a fluke that
they weren't all match. I suppose we'll never know for sure, but I'd
bet heavily on Draven. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
The
rally topics starting to get deleted was a pretty miraculous advantage
for Link. If it wasn't for that, he wouldn't have managed to get as
close as he did. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Karma Hunter posted... The inside baseball clearly points to a Draven victory. Link simply could not gain when Draven's rallies were in full force, and it's a fluke that they weren't all match. I suppose we'll never know for sure, but I'd bet heavily on Draven. but in a rematch we could have gotten that wrestler to tweet at the beginning of the match. and there would have been time for that other wrestler he contacted to tweet too, remember she was on TV that night so she probably didn't get the text(?) until after the match was over. --- "L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember "L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass" |
creativename posted... Karma Hunter posted...I'm of the opinion that the threads not being there for any sustained period of time was a fluke and don't think it will be replicated again. Link getting as close as he did was miraculous. Very possible if Allen had rerun the battle (which he still should have) that Link would have been crushed the next day. Exactly. You're talking about a character who is just a random in an insanely popular game. He has no history or strength in terms of his character. a year later some other LoL character will dethrone and cycle will continue. noone will remember or care about Draven in 10 years time. His votes are 80% bandwagon. Link has a rich history and iconic games to his name. He's just unfortuante Gfaqs is 10x smaller than Reddit. But it goes to show just how strong link is. --- http://i.imgur.com/ooexO.gif |
Rally
topics the next day would have been the same, if not more restricted.
Rallying on day 2 wouldn't have been nearly as effective as it was early
on, and people would have also come out for Link in a bigger way than
before. Don't agree that the rallying gets even more intense the next
day for Draven. It wasn't seeming that way as the match went on, and
re-running it after Reddit had started cracking down wouldn't have been
good for him either. Now, the vote stuffing might have been a bigger
deal, but yeah. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Karma Hunter posted... Sephiroth =~ Crono =~ Yoshi in 2010. Squall =~ Tidus in 2013. I don't know, all of that makes a lot of sense considering how compacted everything is getting! Lower votals are also lowering the gaps between everybody. Maybe Crono being that close to Sephiroth is true at this point. Really, the Tidus/Squall thing is the only thing that sticks out, and for all we know it could still be true. Maybe Vivi will rSFF the hell out of Squall for all we know. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
IngmarBirdman posted... GloriousSweater posted...Squirtle had a great shot at Snake, and that could have conceivably given us Link/Snake/Mario as the pre-final bonus match. We were robbed of that by Sora's suckiness. Absolutely this. Snake would probably win that, but Pikachu definitely hurts Snake more than Cloud. So even though Snake should be naturally stronger than Cloud, that likely would have been a close match. The crazy Squirtle rally cheated us bad. PokeRallyFAQs is well and truly evil! JJH777 posted... Look at the votals of this contest in the first 2 rounds compared to what Draven did. Look at the votals of every 24 hour match besides that one. Link being in that match was a miracle. Don't take the X/Ryu match at face value. For one there was almost certainly far more stuffing going on there. Secondly Link clearly leeches a LOT more Draven rally votes than X/Ryu were capable of. Draven did the best he possibly could have against Link. His victory was a miracle, a total fluke that need an insane confluence of circumstances to go his way. It would not be repeated, Link would have handled a re-run with ease. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Then00bAvenger posted... The rally topics starting to get deleted was a pretty miraculous advantage for Link. If it wasn't for that, he wouldn't have managed to get as close as he did. 100% of Links rally topics got deleted everywhere including Reddit. I know because i was everywhere on the internet that day trying to rally for him. --- http://i.imgur.com/ooexO.gif |
ZFS posted... Rally topics the next day would have been the same, if not more restricted. Rallying on day 2 wouldn't have been nearly as effective as it was early on, and people would have also come out for Link in a bigger way than before. Don't agree that the rallying gets even more intense the next day for Draven. It wasn't seeming that way as the match went on, and re-running it after Reddit had started cracking down wouldn't have been good for him either. Now, the vote stuffing might have been a bigger deal, but yeah. Indeed. There is absolutely zero chance that Draven's rally strength would have been stronger in a re-run. That makes no sense at all. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Wait
so Daven's rally topics getting deleted is now being called a "fluke"? I
thought that was a specific directive from the mods of the LoL
subreddit and would carry on into the match with Mewtwo? --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
Link/Draven was our long-awaited sequel to Mario/Cloud. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Theoretically
the rallies should be deleted for the next match too but I wouldn't
count on it. Doesn't seem like the most consistent place --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
XIII_rocks posted... Oh, well yeah. If Reddit allows the topics again and we get "Ultimate Draven" like in MMX/Ryu, he can't be stopped period - not even sure he can be stopped in 1v1s. But it'll still take a strong, rallied force to take down any form of Draven that isn't "base Draven" (the first few hours of Draven/Jak/Chie). It'd be pretty much impossible to rally Jak to beat Draven, but the power of the Pokemon fanbase has a shot at doing it. Draven will have a much higher base strength in his next match compared to his base strength against Jak/Chie. When the rally topics got deleted shortly before the DDoS, Draven went back to his base strength and was still barely above Shepard in strength, so it's clear that Draven did boost after winning his first 2 matches. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Just
to clarify, I deleted my own rallying topic halfway through the Draven
vs. Link match. Because of how Reddit works, the topic was destined to
slide off the front page long before the match was over; and of course,
as long as a rallying topic existed, a new one wouldn't be approved by
moderators. Therefore, deleting it allowed a new topic to take its place
on the front page for the remainder of the match. |
Draven
will have a much higher base strength in his next match compared to his
base strength against Jak/Chie. When the rally topics got deleted
shortly before the DDoS, Draven went back to his base strength and was
still barely above Shepard in strength, so it's clear that Draven did
boost after winning his first 2 matches. I'm aware of that --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
-LusterSoldier- posted... Draven will have a much higher base strength in his next match compared to his base strength against Jak/Chie. When the rally topics got deleted shortly before the DDoS, Draven went back to his base strength and was still barely above Shepard in strength, so it's clear that Draven did boost after winning his first 2 matches. Yes Draven definitely boosted. In all likelihood it was because virtually *no one* on Gamefaqs had heard of Draven before Jak/Chie. So he got a boost just for being known, and for his famous rally comeback. Then after X/Ryu his base strength must have boosted through the roof, because at that point everyone had heard of Draven. Still, his base strength was only Shepard level. Which is pretty good, and obviously a monumental improvement over getting doubled by Chie! Base Draven is a solid midcard to high midcard now. Still, he needs massive rallies to defeat anyone with real strength. AwYeahDraven posted... Just to clarify, I deleted my own rallying topic halfway through the Draven vs. Link match. Because of how Reddit works, the topic was destined to slide off the front page long before the match was over; and of course, as long as a rallying topic existed, a new one wouldn't be approved by moderators. Therefore, deleting it allowed a new topic to take its place on the front page for the remainder of the match. Yes, it was discussed on here how cunning the deletion of that rally topic was. So it was you then :) It is also very important to mention that the downtime gave Draven a chance to recuperate. He needed that very bad because he was getting thrashed, the downtime gave him an opportunity to set things up again. So...yeah. Draven winning needed an act of god (or satan!) to win. In addition to absurd admin bias. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename posted... Snake would probably win that, but Pikachu definitely hurts Snake more than Cloud. What? Why? I don't understand how Pikachu would hurt Snake more than Cloud. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
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