Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1162

#101 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/8/2013 12:13:00 AM | message detail
Tifa's almost at 44% now, and it's only 3. 46% by morning is very attainable.
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#102 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 12:13:51 AM | message detail
Well, she could conceivably get there at the rate things are going.

Doesn't change the fact that Samus should be embarrassed about it!
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#103 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 12:15:19 AM | message detail
By the way, Tifa currently has her exact percentage from her 2010 match against Sephiroth now.

Sephiroth/Samus is a debatable match again...!
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#104 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/8/2013 12:17:47 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
By the way, Tifa currently has her exact percentage from her 2010 match against Sephiroth now.

Sephiroth/Samus is a debatable match again...!


And that could still happen. More than I can say for Link, Cloud, Mario...
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#105 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 12:19:33 AM | message detail
Samus looks like she might be at the bottom of the Noble Nine now.
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#106 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/8/2013 12:19:45 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#107 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/8/2013 12:21:40 AM | message detail | (edited)
Tifa is embarrassing Samus now (she has 50% in the UK!). It's funny reading all the posts in the previous stats topic where Samus apparently got off to a great start, now she is disappointing.

edit - That said, Tifa still isn't given enough respect in the stats topic and I think getting ~56% on her is still a strong performance. Time and time again I have argued that Tifa is the strongest FF character outside of the usual two, but her good performances are never taken seriously for some reason.
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#108 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/8/2013 12:19:56 AM | message detail
No it's not. Replace tifa with seph. Seph would be doing worse. Look at Kirby match.

I do t k ow why this is bad for Samus. She literally got 49% on a strong Samus.

People will find any excuse to play down Samus. When Tifa is clearly the 2nd strongest FF character on this site now indirectly.
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#109 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 12:21:15 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
Tifa is embarrassing Samus now (she has 50% in the UK!). It's funny reading all the posts in the previous stats topic where Samus apparently got off to a great start, now she is disappointing.


She did! Samus has lost 4.75% since the freeze.
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#110 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 12:22:07 AM | message detail
It looked to me that both chicks were rising - albeit Tifa far moreso - while the block is taking all the falls.

Chicks > blocks.
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#111 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 12:23:04 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Denzokuken posted...
Tifa is embarrassing Samus now (she has 50% in the UK!). It's funny reading all the posts in the previous stats topic where Samus apparently got off to a great start, now she is disappointing.


She did! Samus has lost 4.75% since the freeze.


Shouldn't this be expected? I thought Samus was Power Hour-loaded while Tifa was the exact opposite.

Brawl/Fallout 3 all over again be prepared folks.
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#112 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 12:23:08 AM | message detail
For comparison, Tifa has gained 7.25% since the freeze. That's flat out insane, even by FFVII standards.

I guess that's what happens when Samus and L-Block BOTH get pushed at the start of the match and they try to leave Tifa behind (unsuccessfully).
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#113 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/8/2013 12:24:00 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
Tifa is embarrassing Samus now (she has 50% in the UK!). It's funny reading all the posts in the previous stats topic where Samus apparently got off to a great start, now she is disappointing.


. FFVII is the #1 game on this site in Europe.

I'm puzzled as to why people are acting like tifa is some midcard fodder. Samus would tear crono mm and sonic a new one and you all know it. Now lets stop bashing Samus and praise tifa a bit more.
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#114 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 12:24:19 AM | message detail
Well I sure will be keeping an eye on this.
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#115 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/8/2013 12:24:20 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
For comparison, Tifa has gained 7.25% since the freeze. That's flat out insane, even by FFVII standards.


I had no idea, I haven't checked creativename's site yet. That's exceptional.
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#116 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 12:25:10 AM | message detail
What happens if the trends are exactly the same from the first Samus/Tifa match?
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#117 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 12:26:03 AM | message detail
If the trends are exactly the same, Tifa wrecks Samus all night, Samus does some minor damage control during the day, and Tifa wrecks her some more with the second night vote.
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#118 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/8/2013 12:27:40 AM | message detail
Zinganger posted...
I know this is practically unheard of, but...

is it possible that L-Block is leeching Samus votes? Nintendo-ish SFF?

Could this actually be a thing?


I'm willing to bet that joke characters leech apathy votes, and mainstream Nintendo characters are more apt to score said apathy votes in an average match, so in that way I'm sure L-Block is leeching some votes from Samus.
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#119 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/8/2013 12:27:41 AM | message detail
Did that reddit rally for Tifa take off or something?
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#120 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 12:31:27 AM | message detail
And one final thing before I depart for the night, as one of the maybe three or four Tifa fanboys on B8, it's awesome to see that she always somehow manages to put up impressive performances against the Noble Nine.

ya go my Tifa
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#121 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 12:33:37 AM | message detail
I want to consider myself one of those fanboys.

I just have a serious soft spot for "badass" female characters, that's all.
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#122 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/8/2013 12:36:01 AM | message detail
I am sure Leon is very pleased to know that you like the same characters as him.
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#123 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/8/2013 12:39:28 AM | message detail
This is the second time Tifa has embarrassed Samus.

Is this some kind of weird ass reverse SFF or what?
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#124 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 12:40:34 AM | message detail
It's not like Samus declining doesn't make sense.

And Tifa has had a decently high-profile appearance since last contest. Granted it was only a PSP game, but every little bit helps, especially against Ms. Alpha DmC.
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#125 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 12:51:29 AM | message detail
Well, Tifa seems to be gaining like mad while the other two slowly drop.
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#126 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/8/2013 1:21:22 AM | message detail | (edited)
Tifa with a 22 vote cut... man, Tifa.

edit - 3 cuts in a row. It's onnnn
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#127 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 1:28:28 AM | message detail
So I missed the last couple matches.

What was the reaction to Cloud losing? At what point did people realize that Squirtle was the favorite? From the trends I suppose it was the ASV.

Also did people blast Sora for losing, or did they credit Pikachu more?

And holy hell at Sora's day vote. Jesus. He completely destroyed a *Pokemon* with the day vote? Can't believe he actually came close to winning that match. I suppose we now know that Kingdom Hearts' day vote is still king.
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#128 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/8/2013 1:37:52 AM | message detail
Sora dropped the ball there. Pikachu had enough rallying to change the outcome, but not enough to give Sora any excuse.

Squirtle had a pretty substantial rally (I think I remember someone saying 7000 votes?)
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#129 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/8/2013 1:40:37 AM | message detail
Tifa going 50-50 with Samus in the night.

Tifa is arguably looking as impressive as Cloud =/
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#130 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/8/2013 1:41:11 AM | message detail
If that took place next week. Sora wins by several hundred maybe even a thousand votes. KH+
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#131 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/8/2013 1:42:30 AM | message detail
Around 9000 rallied votes and people calculate that around 7.000 got to Squirtle.Also I just woke up and I check the results.
1)Sora has the best day vote. Without rally Pika was dead for sure. Too bad.
2)L-Block isn't winning and Tifa is 2nd? This contest has lost all credibility.
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#132 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 2:06:43 AM | message detail
I think this is exactly how this match would have gone in 2010, or maybe even 2007/2008. Sure, that implies that Tifa could take on some of the weak links of the Noble Nine in those years, but IIRC most of us believed that anyway.

Samus allowing an FFVII character to cut her so much in this contest isn't good, sure, but we could have all seen a Samus decline coming a mile away. And while Samus did get blowout wins in the first two rounds, Tifa got one in the first round as well.

Personally I'm still impressed with Samus here, but then again I expected L-Block to be winning and/or Samus vs. Tifa to play out exactly the way it did in 2006, so for me seeing Samus getting 55% on a character she almost lost to once is impressive.
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#133 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 2:10:18 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
This is the second time Tifa has embarrassed Samus.

Is this some kind of weird ass reverse SFF or what?


First time, Tifa was coming off of Kingdom Hearts II. IIRC weren't Square characters generally on steroids that year? Vincent upset Ganondorf, Squall did only like 2-3% worse than Mega Man against a common opponent, Sora broke 45% on Mega Man when his previous two losses were blowout losses at the hands of "weaker" Noble Niners, Yuna had three blowout wins and a respectable loss, Auron did better against Crono than he did against Ganondorf the year prior, etc.

This time, Samus is coming off of her equivalent of DmC, while Tifa has gotten her highest-profile game appearance since arguably Kingdom Hearts II in the meantime.
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#134 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/8/2013 2:12:15 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Around 9000 rallied votes and people calculate that around 7.000 got to Squirtle.Also I just woke up and I check the results.
1)Sora has the best day vote. Without rally Pika was dead for sure. Too bad.
2)L-Block isn't winning and Tifa is 2nd? This contest has lost all credibility.


joke post by joke user. Hopefully yo stop following the contest now.
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#135 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/8/2013 2:19:33 AM | message detail
What? Why? There were around 9000 rallied votes. Maybe less Of course not all of them went to Squirtle. But how many do you suppose they went to Squirtle? Above 2/3 for sure.
As for today's match even between the crew half of them had L-Block winning and half had Samus winning. Also all had Tifa 3rd. So as you can see this is an upset.
Anyway this match is set now. Samus will continue to increase and L-Block will continue to fall. At least we will have a woman in the final 9.
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#136 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 2:33:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
If you're so happy about that then stop voting against Samus (and Mario and Link) just for it. Although you told me a while back that you don't really have anything against them and just avoid voting for them since they're so popular anyway, which is perfectly fine.

Also this probably shouldn't be talked about, but if I remember correctly Tifa is 21 and I'd guess that Samus is 26.
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#137 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 2:38:21 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
What was the reaction to Cloud losing? At what point did people realize that Squirtle was the favorite? From the trends I suppose it was the ASV.

Also did people blast Sora for losing, or did they credit Pikachu more?


The reaction to Cloud losing was pretty muted, actually, probably because we saw the writing on the wall about a round ago. But yeah, around the time the ASV started, people accepted Squirtle wasn't dropping this.

Sora got blasted for losing more than the other way around. Rightfully so, too. He's fallen from a near elite to a run of the mill midcarder.
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#138 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 2:42:25 AM | message detail | (edited)
Also, Tifa might make it to 46% on Samus after all! Samus's lead has been stuck in the 1200 range since 3 A.M.

I was mostly joking before when I said Tifa could possibly beat Sephiroth, but now...?
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#139 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/8/2013 2:42:15 AM | message detail
oh boy this is too much work, didn't expect L-Block to be this far behind. Auron must be absolute ass, even with natural trends L-Block was very close.
#140 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 2:43:08 AM | message detail
If Auron got L-Block in a night match, he'd have done something similar to the Block in this position.
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#141 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 2:52:33 AM | message detail | (edited)
To be fair Auron/Cloud/Sephiroth declining more than Tifa makes sense if you want to buy into the whole badass decline business, which honestly sounds good seeing how pretty much every "badass" has disappointed (Dante, Kratos, Ryu Hayabusa, Sub-Zero, Charizard, etc.).

So I guess Cloud and Sephiroth pretty much fell off a cliff while Samus and Tifa only declined a little in comparison.

Also Tifa really feels like an underdog here. I almost have to root for her: she seems equipped just to face off against the menacing power-armored super-soldier she's up against.
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#142 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/8/2013 3:08:43 AM | message detail
FF7 nosediving? Tifa gives no f***s!
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#143 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 3:11:51 AM | message detail
Samus down to 54.31% on Tifa.

Uh oh. This could be something...wait a sec, IIRC Tifa lost the ASV to Gordon Freeman last year so forget it I guess. Then again, Metroid Prime lost the ASV to Half-Life 2 in Game of the Decade so whatever.

Samus won the ASV last time IIRC, but I guess the new "rise to heaven" trend for FFVII makes that less likely?
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#144 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 3:14:00 AM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
Sora dropped the ball there. Pikachu had enough rallying to change the outcome, but not enough to give Sora any excuse.

Squirtle had a pretty substantial rally (I think I remember someone saying 7000 votes?)

7000 net?!?

Holy f****!

Yuri_LowelI posted...
If that took place next week. Sora wins by several hundred maybe even a thousand votes. KH+

It's amazing how lucky Pokemon really are.

I mean the timing of the release for Charizard last contest, the "Mega" stuff this contest, and Pikachu avoiding what would have been an almost definite loss to Sora if it had taken place one or two weeks from now.

And that's not even mentioning the insane exploiting they did of LFF this contest. F***ing ridiculous.
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#145 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 3:15:21 AM | message detail
Yeah, we actually ran an experiment during the morning where a B8er who made a rally topic for Squirtle took the rally topic down to see what would happen.

And surprise, surprise, Squirtle didn't win a single update.

Then the topic went back up and Squirtle went back to work.
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#146 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 3:20:08 AM | message detail
lightning-02 posted...
oh boy this is too much work, didn't expect L-Block to be this far behind. Auron must be absolute ass, even with natural trends L-Block was very close.

I don't know about this.

On paper it makes him look terrible. But excepting Draven rallies, L-Block had a rally of almost unprecedented levels against Auron.

Auron may have declined but I think if L-Block was at the same strength as last round, Auron would be pretty close to Tifa.

I think L-Block's insane non-linearity is the reason Auron looks like ass here. I think he's really not that far behind Tifa in natural strength. L-Block is at 40% on Tifa, I think natural Auron is probably at like 45% on Tifa.

Which isn't bad at all considering Tifa might be the strongest FF7 character now!! Or at least she's pretty damn close to Cloud and Sephiroth.
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#147 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 3:20:43 AM | message detail
Samus down under 41% now, coming close to nearly 6% lost since the freeze. Tifa is now up to 9% gained since the freeze.
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#148 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 3:22:50 AM | message detail
I also think Aeris looks pretty decent in retrospect.

She was basically even with Shepard, and Shepard held up surprisingly well against Link and Draven.

I mean *both* of Shepard's opponents probably got the biggest rallies we've ever seen, yet Shepard still somehow managed to look OK.

I think in a match where Shepard wasn't LPF'd into the absolute ground by gargantuan rallies for his opponents, he's a high midcarder.

And high midcard isn't too bad for Aeris, IMO.
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#149 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/8/2013 3:26:53 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
lightning-02 posted...
oh boy this is too much work, didn't expect L-Block to be this far behind. Auron must be absolute ass, even with natural trends L-Block was very close.

I don't know about this.

On paper it makes him look terrible. But excepting Draven rallies, L-Block had a rally of almost unprecedented levels against Auron.

Auron may have declined but I think if L-Block was at the same strength as last round, Auron would be pretty close to Tifa.

I think L-Block's insane non-linearity is the reason Auron looks like ass here. I think he's really not that far behind Tifa in natural strength. L-Block is at 40% on Tifa, I think natural Auron is probably at like 45% on Tifa.

Which isn't bad at all considering Tifa might be the strongest FF7 character now!! Or at least she's pretty damn close to Cloud and Sephiroth.


I didn't even start the rally for a good 20 minutes in that match and it was a solid 35/40 kind of match without interference. I just assumed L-Block had a high base strength but this makes Auron look terrible. I don't really buy that the time difference is causing such a chasm, it didn't impact other rallies very much and L-Block was at his strongest last round in the SNV.
#150 | creativename | Posted 9/8/2013 3:36:17 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Of course, both of their shots are awful, and Draven's chances of winning are in excess of 99%, and Allen was being ridiculous when he suggested otherwise, but that's neither here nor there.

When did Allen suggest otherwise?

Also I'd peg Draven at more like 80-90%. There's still a chance his rallies don't materialize, and that Snake can take him out. Though as you said, Samus being there kills most of Snake's chances. But I don't find it inconceivable that Draven loses.

I mean really, after everything that's happened in this contest, Draven randomly losing in shocking fashion would fit right in.

LeonhartFour posted...
Also hoping Red pulls a Sora tomorrow.

Gotta hope Squall has enough of a natural strength advantage to be able to beat Red despite Vivi. I honestly think he does, but RallyFAQs and all that.

I agree with you. I'm not sold on Red being a powerhouse, nor that he'd get rallied to the heavens like the non-human Pokemon.

Squall might just be strong enough to overcome the Vivi LFF there. If Red is at say 55-45 strength compared to Blue, Squall has a very good chance of winning.

Of course if Red is much stronger than Blue, he should win easily.
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